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LOGARITHMIC

BTC vs Money Supply updated 2022 (logarithmic)reviewing from my older chart that tried to make sense of the last the last ATH from Bitcoin against the money supply (money printing) can clearly see it broke the previous support price and is still struggling to get above even with all this 'extra' money floating around many big financial companies are liquid right now, there is plenty of opportunity from the crypto markets as a whole, trillions are waiting, maybe some price manipulation too, trying to get cheaper bitcoins of course!!! KEEP watching this chart, if it goes under the diangoal support line ive added then certainly question your crypto holdings and adjust accordingly as lower prices will be sure to come, if we can stay above that trend line support and get back above the old $20k 2017 ATH then we could see a nice drive up towards new highs ill do a normal version of this (not logarithmic) very soon any questions please ask!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by majorlee
1
How to Use Log ScaleIn this post, I will explain how traders can maximize their use of log scale on Trading View. I will give examples of when you should use log scale on your charts and when you should not, as well as provide an in-depth analysis of its use cases, including how you can actually visualize the entire lifecycle of an asset using the log scale. In the chart above, I highlight the difference that using the wrong scale can have on your trading. The chart shows the monthly candlesticks for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). If one applied Fibonacci levels on a log adjusted version of the chart, one would have been under the impression that the dollar index made a huge breakout above its Fibonacci level. However, if one had not applied log adjustment, one would have correctly noticed that price was actually being resisted by the Fibonacci level. From a mathematical perspective, the U.S. dollar index ordinarily should not be log adjusted. I'll explain why below. Log adjustment simply refers to adjusting data on a logarithmic scale. Log adjustment is most suitable for visualizing data of a financial instrument or asset that is moving exponentially or in logistic growth . I will explain and illustrate both of these patterns below, but before I do so, I will discuss assets that do not move in either of these two ways and therefore should not be log adjusted. Financial instruments that are range-bound or that oscillate up and down (e.g. the VIX), ordinarily, should not be log adjusted. Similarly, financial instruments that oscillate relative to another financial instrument, such as the U.S. dollar index (the dollar index oscillates relative to the strength of other currencies), should ordinarily not be log adjusted. Additionally, financial instruments that oscillate up or down solely due to monetary policy action, such as bonds and interest rates, ordinarily, should not be log-adjusted. In all of these oscillator examples, price action does not undergo exponential decay or logistic growth relative to time and therefore log adjustment is mostly inappropriate. Applying log scale to these assets can lead to the trader reaching the wrong conclusion, such as shown with the dollar index example above, and below with an example from the VIX. Regardless of which one of these charts ultimately proves to be right (support holding or breaking for the VIX) it illustrates the problem with using the wrong scale on your charts. Using the wrong scale can lead to the wrong conclusion and put you on the wrong side of a trade. On the other hand, most other financial instruments and assets move in patterns of either exponential decay or logistic growth and should be log adjusted. Most stocks, indices, derivatives, and cryptocurrencies move in patterns that should be log adjusted. Here's an example of exponential decay : Here's an example of logistic growth : Many people look at this chart and incorrectly think that Monster Beverage (MNST) is growing exponentially, but in fact it is not. Applying log adjustment can help show this. As you can see, log adjustment shows that MNST's past price action fits the S-curve of a logistic function almost perfectly. If MNST were growing exponentially, log adjustment would just show a straight line with an upward slope. In the above example, log adjustment can actually show you hints that MNST is in the late phase of its growth cycle as price reaches capacity. As far as I am aware, no financial asset grows exponentially, as there is a finite amount of capital and a finite amount of resources in the world. When a financial instrument appears to be growing exponentially, it is merely in the upward concavity phase/maximum growth period of a logistic function. Eventually, the financial instrument will reach its capacity and its growth will begin to flatten over time. In virtually all cases, assets decline at some point in the future after reaching their capacity. Using log adjustments can help you avoid entering into positions of assets that are near capacity. Log adjustment reveals where an asset is currently positioned in its lifecycle. Take a look at the below example of Citigroup. When the Great Recession hit, Citigroup began to undergo exponential decay (relative to the broader market). See the chart of Citigroup's price action relative to the broader market (S&P 500). In some rare cases, an asset can do the opposite of this: transition from exponential decay to logistic growth. Finding and entering a position just before the inflection point can be among the most lucrative investments one can possibly make in the financial markets. Log adjustment can help you find the inflection point. In the future, I will write a post on how to find inflection points using log adjustment, and I will provide an example of an asset that is about to break out from its inflection point. Aside from visualizing the lifecycle of a financial asset, log adjustment can help eliminate skewness to better visualize patterns. Here's an example below. Log adjustment also allows us to run linear-log regressions. In short, a linear log regression can identify areas where price action is unusually above or below the mean for financial instruments that move up or down exponentially. In the chart above, we see a log-adjusted chart of Money Supply (M2SL). Applying log adjustment to the money supply and then adding a linear-log regression channel shows us that the Federal Reserve was clearly adding too much money into circulation as evident by the M2SL reaching an abnormally high standard deviation from the mean and jumping above the upper line of the regression channel. Log scales help us understand and visualize data about the world around us and the natural cycles which characterize it. Log scales and logistic growth are used in many other scientific contexts from epidemiology (e.g. tracking the spread of a virus) to demography (e.g. analyzing population growth and decline). Take a look at a log scale of Japan's Nikkei Stock Average alongside the country's population from the post-World War II era to the present day. In summary, applying log adjustment is ordinarily suitable for assets that move exponentially or in logistic growth. Applying log adjustment on the price action of an asset that moves in this manner can better help us eliminate skewness, identify abnormal deviations using linear-log regression, and allow us to visualize the lifecycle of a financial asset. Note: Sometimes the wrong scale can be useful in trading because so many other traders are also making the same error and basing their trades on the wrong scale. I've seen this happen quite frequently for Fibonacci retracements. So sometimes it can be helpful to toggle between log scale on and off to see which is causing a price reaction. In general, though, log adjustment is mostly suitable for assets moving in exponential decay or logistic growth, from a mathematical perspective.
TVC:DXYEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
17
$BTC #Bitcoin Just Gonna Leave This Here (Hmmmm..Maybe?) 😝This is just adding onto my logarithmic regression-inversion theory and how I personally believe the $BTC price movements may specifically play out. The general theory is that the logarithmic regression of $BTC will invert at a certain point in the next 1-3 years, changing the price suppression $BTC has had for its whole life into exponential support. I personally believe this is very possible, with exponential adoption of #Bitcoin for things like sovereign wealth funds, countries' legal tender and possibly even a world reserve asset. If those things (plus other possible variables) occur then this is how I see that possibly playing out. Here is a detailed explanation of what I personally believe is happening/going to happen here. Phase 1: There would be a breakdown of price like we have now (possibly) completed. This would be in order to accomplish a few things for global institutions. Some of those things are: 1) Get Bitcoin out of the hands of the "common man". It would not be possible to acquire the amount of $BTC needed with so many people holding. 2) Cause liquidity issues for exchanges, making it more difficult for just anyone to purchase. (We have already seen this. ex: Voyager, Celsius, etc.) 3)Allow large accounts to be created at more feasible prices, while also providing a good (high) enough entry price to sustain value for the overall asset in the eyes of the public. (To keep people from losing interest) There are obviously more reasons, but that's another post. Phase 2: A relief rally back up to the median range. This will obviously be a very volatile range, as 50% of investors sell (expecting a sharp move downward) and others (possibly the central financial institutions and/or sovereign wealth funds, who will not initially disclose their acquisitions) accumulating within this range. Because of this volatility, the likely range it will be in, the immediate supports/resistances, and the typical movement of the $BTC price; My current prediction is that $BTC will move upward, after flipping the top of the recent range into support, and break above the main down-trend of a massive flag that $BTC has been forming for over a year. Then after a retest of that upper trend, price will attempt to break the new-found resistance as traders long from that trend line. Believing that this is the last upward movement, traders will then short the resistance level, and other holders may sell out of fear (or just simply because they will be at a break-even price, since a lot of volume was transacted in that range). This range will then prove to be the median range, previously mentioned. $BTC will then make a lower low, again at the upper trend of the flag. This will seem like a "bear-signal" but will actually be a second confirmation of support off of the upper-resistance trend of the flag, which will "fake-out" traders, causing a short squeeze. Then more traders will continue to short as others switch to a long stance. All of these movements will print an inverse-head-and-shoulders, the break-out of which will give $BTC price the momentum needed to make it back up to the $60K-$70K range. Phase 3: After making it back to the "all-time-high" range, there will undoubtedly be heavy volatility, as some call for a triple-top and others "FOMO" into #Bitcoin. This volatility, bouncing between the upper regression curve and the inversion curve, will begin to print a "rising-wedge" pattern. The break-out of this wedge will be the ultimate inversion of regression into exponential growth. This is all pure speculation, however it is based on both, strong fundamental data as well as technical data. I personally believe in this theory, and it could also play out in other ways, but this scenario seems to make the most sense to me at the moment. **This is my own opinion based on data observed. This is not financial advice.**
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
Bitcoin Super CycleHere we can see the PI cycle top flashed early much like 2013 In 2013 it was April fools day when BTC started its correction BTC reached the Center point of logarithmic regression around July 1 This correction was only 3 months in length I do see a similar pattern here, If this plays out like the super cycle in 2013 then my personal targets are: Center of regression July 2021 second PI cycle top will be around oct-nov of 2021 followed by a bear market which takes BTC to 20k as the floor again shaking out most retail and making it less affordable to accumulate From there BTC will be on the journey of 1 million roughly a year after the 4th halving It's important to note 4th halving will put rewards close to PI at 3.125
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ILL_Midas
21
⚠️⚠️ ✔️ OR ❌️ ? Is it the bottom for #bitcoin? ⚠️⚠️Building on my previous $BTC logarithmic regression chart, there has now been an almost perfect bounce off of the yellow, dotted, inversion-curve line. This coincides with daily, weekly and monthly RSI's being at extremely oversold levels with the 4hr RSI moving down into oversold territory. Personally, all my limit orders were hit perfectly so it seems I may have at least bought "A" bottom here. This abrupt price drop also has now created a broadening edge pattern, which typically will break to the upside when formed at the bottom of a downtrend. All of these confluences may just spell the final bottom price for $BTC in the short term and validate my "inversion-curve" theory. Of course this can still be invalidated by a close below the inversion-curve line. If that occurs, I would still believe an inversion could be possible, but over a much longer time period. In that scenario, my target range for a price bottom would be between $10,770 & $12,694. #btcinversion #btcbottom *These are my personal opinions, based on chat data. This is not financial advice.*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DoozerInvest
ES1!/SPY Short - Broadening Decisive Break - LOPMAYou short, anon? Lots of evidence pointing to the downside here. (I am currently aware of a bug for people viewing my posts on various devices where they see nothing. Something to do with my firefox configuration which I will fix soon, until then you can visit my chart link to see my charts if unable to see here) I think we have only just started downside similar to the covid crash, evident by a few metrics. Things such as the daily candle gap of today's candle (similar to covid crash), My homemade indicator showing deviation bearishly and printing of multiple instances of hidden bear divergence. So much to say, such little time... Good luck, have a great one.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DYOR_Analysis
Bitcoin 4 Year SMA. Best tool we have to call the bottom for BTCNotice the price action near the green & red lines. Look below the green line (23.61% Fibonacci), there are 2 grey lines and then the orange & the same thing when looking above the red line (76.39% Fibonacci). History shows us that we rarely go above or below the red/green line, and if we look to the right, it looks like it's trying to break below. When price action bounces off one of these logarithmic fib levels. That should be a very good sign that things are turning around. But you also gotta remember that anything is possible. With $BTC at the KEY LEVEL, fighting to stay above the green 23.61% Fib... The FOM C meeting could send us the right to the bottom of the channel. Coming down to that orange bottom fib would be around $18,000 - $20,000 depending on how long it takes to get down to that level. We also have the 4-year SMA (1460 Day SMA) being hit again for the 4th time since 2015 & each time we came down to the MA the bottom was in and we flipped bullish. One last thing... My 4 Year, 200 Week, 1460 Day M.A (whatever M.A you like better) is a heatmap, and if we take a look we can see that we have now stopped printing the teal/light blue & we now are starting to see some dark blue beginning to appear. This is just another signal to add more confluence towards the idea that we might have bottomed out & we could see a reversal in the not-so-distant future!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by PlanDeFi
🚨🚀💩Which Scenario Seems More Likely For $BTC?#Bitcoin has been following the same regression curve since its conception. If it's to be believed that this curve will truly last forever, then #Bitcoin will also just be hurling towards its inevitable death spiral down to zero. While there are probably a select amount of people that still think this is possible, I personally don't subscribe to that theory. This means that $BTC will have to break out of this curve. If that happens, the highly sought after "S-curve" may occur, bringing on some very extreme, exponential growth for the price. The dotted, upwards-trending curve shows the possible price support that may shift this curve to invert the regression. An accurate bounce off of this yellow curve may just signal the inversion of the curve. **This is all my own personal opinion, based on chart data. This is not financial advice.**
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DoozerInvest
1
ETHUSD - 1k is on the way!!COINBASE:ETHUSD has seen more selling pressure and hasnt has a bounce yet. We are approaching the LOG ABCD target around 1500. This could provide some buying to get the bounce but ultimatly will give way to more selling. Looking at the AI for the year we can expect a low somewhere around SEPT/OCT. This is where it can be down around the 1k level and another major 78% retracement. I will post the log chart after. Interesting couple of months ahead. I hope this helps. Enjoy the trade.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by L_F
2
LOGARITHMIC INDICATORS bull vs bear Bearish case: - If 69k was our 5th and final wave, RSI failed to make a HH which is typical of a weak final 5th Elliot Wave. Price made a new high and RSI made a bearish divergence. - Weak volume with next to no strength in flow of the move Bullish case: - Given EW theory, the 3rd wave should have significant volume and the 5th should display a clear decline in volume after the 3rd wave. So if 69k was the top 5th wave, we did not see this in volume, rather we saw a constant 'resistance' in volume with no real significant decline - RSI did not have as sharp and aggressive decline after our "peak," like we saw in 2018. A much slower downward trend with not a lot of confidence, now reaching bear market historical lows - OBV had next to no peak like we saw in 2018, and though recently it's flat-lined it is still technically making HH's and HL's (this is displayed on multiple exchanges) When volume dies out, it usually precedes a significant move, I've said this before in my other posts. I'd like to see a clear decision down or up that would kick-start our next run up with strong spike in volume. I've taken this info from multiple exchanges, not just this one you see above. In the end, Bulls and Bears can both be right and still profit together, just depends the timing of it and the side you are on at the time of the move. Right now is the time to be objective and not marry your bias. V
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by cryptovatsik
long term logarithmic growth fan pattern horizontal supportthe gann fan and log view with broadening wedge indicates stock is trending toward long term support. if we cant close over the 4/1 monthly its probably headed for that lower trendline. were at horizontal support so a bounce starting here would probably head for the 2424 area. closing above the mid 2400s and we could head for 2988 where TRAMA is currently hanging out. if 2050 breaks it could go as low as 1785 but its much more likely we see a monthly bounce soon.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by cerealpatterns