Kuehne + Nagel (logistics): An interesting position as logisticsKuehne + Nagel (logistics): An interesting position as logistics are essential to international trade, but performance is sensitive to global economic cycles.
Rewards
Trading at 46% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 4.74% per year
Risk Analysis
Dividend of 4.32% is not well covered by earnings or free cash flows
Logistics
Is DHL Group ready to break the long term triangle? 200dma is still acting as major resistance but approaching the end of the triangle. The chances might be high that breakout occur before the end of the year. 2nd quarter numbers were good. 6-6.5 billion EUR operating profit confirmed for 2024. Decent dividend of 4.5% at current prices.
Melanie Kreis, CFO DHL Group: "Thanks to our unique logistics portfolio we are well prepared for when global trade regains momentum."
UPS: A Hidden Gem in the Logistics SectorUPS stock has been decimated recently, but this presents a prime opportunity for savvy investors.
If you, like me, believe in the future of e-commerce and global logistics, UPS is a stock you cannot afford to overlook.
As a leader in the logistics industry, UPS is integral to the global supply chain.
The stock is a key component in many ETFs focused on transportation and logistics, alongside giants like FedEx and DHL.
With the growing demand for efficient delivery services, UPS's pivotal role in the supply chain ensures it is well-positioned for substantial long-term growth.
Invest in UPS now to capitalize on the future of global commerce.
Trading at 20% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 15% per year
Dividend of 5%. So holding for the long term.
Profit margins down to 6% from 10% :(
Kiss of the Tiger :)Tigerlogistics - A Small Cap company (having a market cap of Rs 833.27 Crore) operating in Logistics sector. The initial call on Tiger Logistics was given around 440. Today it surpassed 866 levels in Intraday resulting in a gain of nearly 97%
Technicals:
1) On Monthly - The Rally on Tiger started with a Cup and Handle BO above 290 levels. Further to this, it rallied up and took a 0.382 Fib retracement to form a Fresh Rounding Bottom Pattern
2) BO of new RB was done above 480 and targets were set for 625, 700
3) On Weekly - it again formed a smaller rounding bottom pattern with BO above 600 by which time the Targets were extended to 866
4) There is also a Parallel Channel seen on Weekly with the Price coming closer to upper Trendline resistance
Today the Tiger "Kissed the Target of 866" during Intraday but fell down slightly towards day close. We expect a slight retracement from Upper Trendline before the Tiger starts Pouncing to next higher level - 1200+ based on Fib Extension
Disclaimer:
Stocks-n-Trends is NOT a SEBI registered company. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi--timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes. We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide" and consult your Financial Advisors before taking any positions.
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-Team Stocks-n-Trends
Teamsters Union advises YRC will 'be out of money by August'Teamsters not 'bailing out' Yellow again
The teamsters union says YRC has been poorly managed for years, and they will no longer bail out YRC again. The union said that YRC contacted them advising they will be out of money by August.
“ Yellow has been unable to effectively manage itself for a long time,” said Sean O’Brien, Teamsters general president, in a video to members. “Now, the company says it’ll be out of money by August. Do not forget — Teamsters have already given back everything they possibly could to keep Yellow afloat. ”
The Teamsters General President said that the union gave billions to the company in wages, benefits and concessions already. O'Brien referenced the $700 million government bailout already provided from COVID-relief. The money was supposed to go towards reinvesting in new equipment, and catching up on delinquent health & pension payments. It is not left for the Teamsters to save this company; we have given enough, O’Brien said. “ What happens next is out of our control. ”
The key sticking point has been the driver requirement that they must work freight on the docks and potentially at locations other than home terminals. The Teamsters union are contending that the letter of agreement violates the current contract as it expands utility positions.
A letter from John Murphy, Teamsters Freight Division Director, sent out on Monday advised that the change of operations in the West was different from the current proposal as the utility role in that region was contractually permitted and “all affected road drivers had their earnings protected and were allowed to continue to perform traditional road work.” John Murphy advised that Yellow is seeking to "assign employees to any job, anywhere, at any time across operating companies."
Yellow's memo on Thursday advised that 1,000 drivers (20% of total drivers) would have to work the docks, and they already have 400 compliant with these functions. They would fill the remaining 600 roles based on the least seniority.
“Let’s be clear: If you were at a non-union company — a very realistic possibility for MOST of you if Yellow does not survive — ALL of you would be subject to potential dock work regardless of your time in the industry,” the internal YRC memo read.
Yellow is willing to implement another pay hike ($0.60/hour and $0.015/mile) to get a deal completed. The problem with this proposal is Yellow does not have the financing to fund the increase and would need a loan, and is seeking to refinance its $1.5 billion of debt to a future date, while interest rates are at substantially higher.
John Murphy advised that the small promise of a modest increase that may not happen "is insulting". Murphy said, "Yellow wants to establish a one-way street that allows it to get everything it wants up front and early. The company wants our members to wait to see what happens down the road, even if it means workers are once again left holding the bag.”
Within the Teamsters General President video, O'Brien said, "Sometimes a bad job isn’t worth it anymore".
The parties agreed to pull forward negotiations of collective bargaining which expires March 31, 2024 and find a suitable operational change. Yellow is in a rush to begin negotiations, however the union has been consistent in its stance that it will follow normal negotiating protocol and will not begin discussions till August.
The Teamster Union are also negotiating with TForce (NYSE:TFII) and UPS (NYSE:UPS). It recently reached a conclusion with ABF Freight's (NASDAQ:ARCB) LTL unit ABF Freight.
Deteriorating Logistics Market, Untenable Financial Conditions
At the end of the first quarter, Yellow reported sales of $5.14 billion, and $168 million in liquidity. Y/Y they repaid $98 million in debt. The company is not generating any profit.
he company continues to book net losses with a net margin of -0.10%, and is operating near breakeven. Currently the company is spending more than they are generating. Tonnage declined 16% y/y, and is down 1/3rd over the past two years.
Yellow excused the tonnage decline as part of their multiyear overhaul of "One Yellow" to consolidate its LTL brands and reduce cost by closing terminals. The drop in tonnage has been steep enough to indicate customers are routing freight through alternative carrier options.
The “company is running out of cash and is at risk of closure/liquidation,” the Yellow memo read. “Delays to Phase 2 and the One Yellow transformation has come with a serious cost. The company is unable to pay its bills and secure lender financing without showing to the market that we are able to implement on our One Yellow plans.”
Yellow currently provides 22,000 union jobs, and is pushing for full support to keep the survival of their brands intact. Yellow is attempting to push the Union to negotiate immediately, however O'Brien said the union will keep its current deal while it can.
“Yellow has shown that it doesn’t deserve and cannot be expected to continue under its current structure,” O’Brien said. “The Teamsters cannot and will not keep bailing out this company with concessions.”
TARGET REACHED for KAP Limited at R2.25 - WarningReversal Diamond Formation formed on the Daily chart.
This formation is a normally a big fight between the bulls and the bears.
Once the price breaks below it, sets the bar for the next momentum slide.
Which in this case was down.
We had other indicators confirming the downside to come including.
200>21>7 _ Bearish
RSI <30 - Bearish
And our first target was at R2.25 which hit yesterday.
It was a LONG hold but at least, some traders would have banked daily interest from shorting. Right now it's dangerous to just buy the stock because the price is so low. instead we need the market to turn and move in an uptrend establishment before we buy. Until then, I expect the market to continue to drop which I'll save the analysis for another day.
EXTRA FACTS ABOUT KAP LImited you may not know.
Formation:
KAP Industrial Holdings Limited was established in 2004.
Diversified Operations:
KAP's operations are diversified and extend across sectors such as logistics, passenger transport, manufacturing, and distribution.
Major Subdivisions:
The company operates in two main divisions: diversified industrial and diversified logistics.
Global Presence:
KAP has a broad geographical footprint and operates in more than 20 countries, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Europe.
Noteworthy Brands:
The company owns or is involved with numerous well-known brands such as Unitrans, PG Bison, Feltex, and DesleeMattex.
The company's name, "KAP," is an acronym which stands for "Klipspringer, Algoa, and Peninsula," representing the names of three South African buses that were part of the company's origins.
ZIM Long IdeaZIM and the shipping industry has just come out of a massive bubble and all shipping lines are finding their feet. ZIM made earnings last quarter which was one of the roughest yet.. the recent GRI of around $600/FEU Trans-Pac should put carriers back into the green and they will try their best to hold rates around this level via blank sailings and volume control. This is a dangerous game but ZIM fundamentals (ship / space leasing) have proven extremely successful as volume dried up and carriers bringing in massive container ships are baring the brunt of the blow.
TA looks like a bull div on LTF (4hr) and sitting at the lows for a double bottom. If buying low selling high is a thing.... any lower than this and ZIM sinks so clear S/R level.
Long term looking for 238 fib level but this feels like a good entry depending on macro
The Search For Liquidity in ERA of TighteningYoung corporate executives in Mumbai, who may never have read Marx, were recently circulating by e-mail portions from Karl Marx's 150-year-old writings which lucidly talk about a stage in capitalism where banks would throw ever larger doses of cheap debt for consumption until there is a crises of repayment and the state would step in to take over the banks. Indeed, Marx had even said the original proponents of free trade will be forced to turn protectionist at some stage of globalisation!
So it was only appropriate that the G-20 leaders should have met so close to Marx's grave. In fact, there are many other warning signals the G-20 leaders can take from the writings of Marx, undoubtedly one of the greatest thinkers of the 19th century.
Seen in Marxian terms, the G-20 leaders represent the global bourgeoisie which wants to find new ways of revolutionising the instruments of production to take global capitalism to a higher level from what seems like a deep stagnation in large parts of the world today. In this context, Marx had specifically spoken about periods of commercial crises in advanced capitalist societies which are visited by an epidemic of overproduction
The epidemic of overproduction creates total disorder in bourgeois society, threatening existing property and productive forces at large.
Ranks promised - Ranks did 💪🏼ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd - provides comprehensive logistics services, the main business is container shipping
TOTAL RANKS SCORE - 74 %
🟢 Fundamentally, at the moment, the stock looks more interesting than 74% of similar companies. Let's figure out what's what. ⁉️
RANKS FINANCE SCORE - 97 %
📍Return on invested capital is 74%, Net Profit margin is 36%
📍Equity is greater than total debt, and EBITDA for the year can cover the entire net debt with might and main
📍Free cash flow return is about 200% (the company is definitely doing well financially) 💰
RANKS VALUATION SCORE - 100 %
📍 All cost multipliers are much lower than the industry average
📍 Revenue and profit are in tremendous growth, but capitalization is small
📍 However ❗ the forecast P/E screams - SELL TILL YOU CAN ❗️ 👀
WHAT'S THE CATCH?
🔴 The consensus forecast for the company's earnings is depressing 📉
RANKS FORECAST SCORE - 11 %
📍 After a rapid COVID growth in freight costs in 2020 and 2021, the market is cooling down
📍 The peak rates of container transportation ended in 2021, the entire 2022 rate is falling
📍 Most likely, the rate will come to the level of "normal" 2019, and it will not end soon
RANKS RECOMENDATIONS
🟡 If you are already a stockholder, we recommend you to keep the stock. If you are only considering buying, we recommend abstaining if you do not want to wait more than a year.
📍 The company (#ZIM) is one of the largest players in the market and has a good financial safety cushion on its balance sheet.
📍 The current dynamics of stock quotes and the macroeconomic situation contribute to the continuation of the price drop.
📍 Nevertheless, in our opinion, the company's shares can become a good asset for the future, but not in the next 12 months.
$ZIM last chance to shine$ZIM is in for a long 3 quarters with global freight rates in the gutter but after a 75% move down and a really nice reaction to the last major level ($18-19) the major HTF bull div has a shot at playing out. Specifically with wall-street running away as the massive dividend is likely to be cut in Q1 (who cares)
The main thing to consider is if this is a hold or a swing trade and with the current macro environment I think it needs to be a swing trade OR long long term hold. For the long term hold you need to examine freight rates and what ZIM was doing in 2019 (exclude bubble data from 2020-2022) DYOR and see what you think. Worth a look IMO.
The main thing is the S/R level could not be more clear... above $18 upside potential is pretty good and below $18 downside is price discovery...
HYUNDAI IS ALREADY CARRYING LNG, DO YOU KNOW ⁉️Ranks analytical crew welcomes everyone!
Today we will analyze the shares of a curious subsidiary of the automaker Hyundai from South Korea.
Hyundai Glovis Co Ltd (#GLOVS) – Ranks score - 94 %
The company operates in 3 sectors:
🔘 Logistics (auto parts and industrial goods)
🔘 Ocean cargo transportation (auto and industrial goods)
🔘 Distribution (used cars and metals)
Future businesses that the company plans to develop:
🔘 Smart logistics (using the Internet of Things)
🔘 Hydrogen business (logistics of hydrogen transportation)
🔘 Used electric car batteries (transportation and processing)
Why is it interesting to Ranks analysts ❓
🥇 The company is a major logistics operator of international cargo terminals + participates in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG)
🥈 The company has an outstanding financial position + it pays dividends
🥉 Valuation multipliers are very attractive + 94% of analysts recommend buying
What are the risks ❓
❌ The company reported worse than expected earnings in the 3rd quarter
❌ Global fuel cost growth limits profitability
ALLCARGO LOGISTICSALLCARGO LOGISTICS
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS is forming a good pattern, there is a good accumulation happening at current levels.
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS is Symmetrical chart pattern breakout wait for entry about of confirmation candle.
This channel is for only educational purpose. Any Profit/loss, I am not responsible.
Sector: Transportation
Industry: Marine Shipping
SNOWMAN LOGISTICS WEEKLY TIMEFRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves).
Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
JMIA (jumia), e-commerce in africa, but definitely not only it.JUMIA is a German company that operates in Africa and is most known for its e-commerce side.
but, in my opinion, most interesting thing about this company is its other 2 parts of the company.
jumia logistics -> this part of the company offers logistic to the main e-commerce, BUT also is now open to third parties, both local sellers who wants to operate with non-jumia orders, as well as other business that needs someone to transport their goods. it makes me think of something like USPS with amazon when it first started.
jumia pay -> this is the part of the company that takes care of the payments. here the customers of the e-commerce can pay, but can also use this app to pay bills, mobile phone plans and a lot more.
just for your information, it is estimated that HALF of the mobile money of the world is used in Africa, as there are problems for the banks to work with people, which is not a problem we even heard of.
so, jumia pay is in my opinion, and following jumia founders also, the big play of the future. it can even become a fintech company by itself.
point is:
1) logistics in Africa at the moment is like shit for a loooot of reasons (just search for it, there are tons of articles) --> if jumia logistics reach a good logistic development, it will be the to-go company for other business in Africa who needs to transports their goods.
2) Africa is a place where people and banks do not co-operate at the best, and so mobile money and mobile accounts for money storage is a big big thing. --> because of that, as people pay with jumia pay for their goods bought via jumia e-commerce, they get stuck with jumia pay and that part of the company can really grow, and even expands in other businesses like it already did with bills and mobile phone plans.
talking about the stock itself, I did no fundamental research about the pure money thing, just the possibility there are in Africa, and I think that the price would not be that hight from 2 dollars bottom if the company has no future.
so, my play will be.
if 23 USD holds and the price bounce up 3 times or has a strong reaction, it is a good point to buy, and just put stop loss below 23 (22 will be fine). (it would be a double+ bottom)
if the price falls as low as 19 or 20, my buy price is 19.60 with a stop loss of 15.6 which is -20% from the buy point.
as for the target price, I think 89 is fine. I took this price as it is an ATH for sure, but it is not in the 90sh which IMO is a bad place to be stuck in.
last thing is. do not care too much how much your upside % is with price target 89, or ur just gonna HOPE it will work. so stick to SL (stop loss) and let time drive the market.
ofc, if major events happen in the market, this stock can be also destroyed by general pessimists, but it can as well skyrocket.
i will try to post news about this, but I would prefer not to change my initial plan.
The recent pullback in SITC share price seems overdone.SITC International Holdings Company Limited (1308). Price 25/3/2022: HKD 27.65
SITC is a US$10 billion market cap transport and logistics company, quoted in Hong Kong, doing business (i.e. shipping goods), from China 39%, South East Asia 31.2% and Japan 24.8%. They have 96 vessels delivering to 74 ports, including ports in Russia.
Shipping and logistics companies typically trade at a discount to the general market due to the uncertainties of world trade. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added to these uncertainties. All companies, shipping companies included, not only have to adhere to the sanctions, but also have to contend with the additional difficulties incurred when dealing in non-sanctioned goods. These include problems with payments for goods (money transfers) and reputation risk.
This week's heavy fall in the SITC share price no doubt was triggered by these uncertainties. Given the solid fundamentals of SITC, the fall seems over-done.
Good Fundamentals
Low Price Earnings ratio (6.47e),
High yield (11.3%e),
Growing turnover (+78.8% yoy, +19%f).
High margin (43% e).
Improving analyst forecasts
Analysts have been improving their forecasts of the current year(2022) earnings per share (EPS). In September 2021 the forecast was around US$0.37, by December 2021 it was around US$0.40. By the end of February 2022 analysts had increased their forecast EPS to US$0.50. On 7th March 2022, SITC announced its full year 31/12/2021 results showing sales up 78%, and Earnings per share tripled. In the following days analysts raised their forecast of the 2022 EPS to $US0.59.
Sound financial situation
The financial position seems sound with current assets of $1.18 billion (including cash of $919 million), exceeding current liabilities of $785 million. Long term liabilities are modest at $415 million and are nearly covered by the net current assets.
Too cheap
Most stocks quoted in Hong Kong are trading at a significant discount to the rest of the world. Whilst the reasons for under-weighting China and Hong Kong are well known, the question is how much discount is too much? With a prospective p/e ratio of 6.47x, a dividend yield in double digits, and solid forecast growth, SITC seems rather cheap. That's why I am buying some shares.
XPO (Updated)I don't remember publishing this chart. However, it looks like price reached the 50% retracement of the previous high and even went on to test the 61% fib level. Although price could be setting a resistance here, I believe this is a solid company and am setting up a new buy target for a longer move towards the retracement of 88% down the road. Price does look as if it rejected the 200 ema at a point of control so we could be playing tug of war before a true run is made. Biden is working with these companies to improve supply chain issues so keep that in mind! Price reaching $76 would be a 38% retracement of the recent low and would be a good average down area in my eyes. Not advice.
hidden crab?crab harmonic pattern:
X=$2
AB=0.38 XA
BC=0.38 AB
1.6 BC=$0.0429
2 BC=$0.0628 *third support*
2.24 BC=$0.0797 *second support*
2.6 BC=$0.115 *first support*
0.61 XA=$0.128
3.6 BC=$0.313 *first resistance*
0.78 XA=$0.437 *second resistance*
0.88 XA=$0.9 *third resistance*
1.13 XA=$5.32
6.85 BC=$7.76
1.27 XA=$14.93
1.41 XA=$40
1.6 XA=$184 *moooooooooooooooooooooooooon*