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Logreturns

Technical Bounce Plausible?The market is ultra bearish, but perhaps we're about to establish a sideways trend? The market has been hinting it for weeks and has not set lower lows. Fundamentals are bearish, but conditions are reasonably oversold for now in the short term. It makes sense for a reflexive bounce as shorters cover their positions, but alas I do not think it will be enough to turn the market around, so I do not forsee a larger rally yet. If we break below 1000 there is a clear violation of structure and the idea is invalid. Maybe there will be another drop yet. I would prepare for that also incase some really really bad news breaks. Banks are putting cash aside to prepare for loan defaults. If that's not some sort of leading signal for more bearishness, I don't know what is. Be prepared either way. What do you think? Let me know! Cheers and don't forget to hedge your bets!
Long
by fringe_chartist
4
BTC + SPX Trade IdeaThis is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade. Sellers are willing to accept lower prices for this past year, that's basically what the log returns is telling us as it's below 0. In other words, risk has not paid off in a while on this scale. Risk-averse HAS paid off. This is a contrarian trade. The crowd is now ultra bearish and this presents an opportunity of price discovery. Wait for them to come to you, don't panic and go to them. The wholesale price range is defined by the region of prices where most trades were made AND the result of those trades is highly random. The bottom and tops of this wholesale zone represent the golden ratio 0.618. Remember, the absolute value of the inverse of 0.618 is 0.382. Both of these fib levels are identical, one level represents sells and the other represents buys. In other words, we don't define where 0 or 1 is. We draw the golden ratio area of the fib box around the wholesale range, then we get the definition of 0 and 1. Be aware though, that if you do this same analysis but with Log Returns on a 2 Year timeframe instead of 1 Year, we could still be in a distribution zone. Don't put all your apples in this basket. Be diligent about your position: This gives us quite a startling conclusion. The rally of Dec 2018 was simply a bear market rally on a 2 Year scale. We could be in the very SAME situation now. Lower highs on the indicator, then lower lows. So even though it LOOKS like a decent buy on the 1 Year timeframe, we should NOT assume it's going to the moon if the price reaches our target (red crosshair) unless there is some drastic shift in monetary/fiscal policy which would cause a new cycle to suddenly appear. What do you think about all this craziness? I hope you liked the idea, and good luck. Don't forget to hedge your bets! :)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by fringe_chartist
11