The only bitcoin chart you needLooking at BTC on a logarithmic chart on high time frame.
Bitcoin has always bounced from this trend line.
It's pretty easy....
If we lose the "2018" bottom and break down from the long term trend line bitcoin is doomed and could crash very hard.
If 5800 can hold we should see a bounce up to triangle resistance.
If we can break above this resistance the next bull run to 50k is on the table.
Cheers
Logscale
Log vs Linear parallel channel comparisonOn the left is the log chart with parallel channels.
Notice the price just wicked close to the bottom of the main up channel and the bottom of the current down channel for LTF
On the right is the linear chart with parallel channels.
Notice the 11-12k candles rejected off the centre of the main up channel and we are below the centre of the current down channel for LTF
it's a bit basic and the channels might not be accurate depending on TF viewed and if you want to include candle bodies or wicks but it will give you an idea.
ZEC weekly log scale SharkUsually when measuring the retracements for potential harmonics we use the Linear Fibonacci scale but i think it might be acceptable to use the FIB tool adjusted for log scale in certain instances and this is one of them.
Pay no mind to the numbers auto generated by the Cypher tool as those numbers are only Linear scale retracements and the tool doesn't have a log scale adjusted option like the FIB tool does.
For those who would like to check the measurements themselves I have color coded each individual set of waves:
XA-B retrace in Orange
AB extension to C in Blue
BC extension to D in Green
X to C retrace to D in Black.
I have also marked the PCZ of the shark in the Blue Box if pattern is valid we will see a reversal between the 886 and 1.13 retracements.
Price-wsie that's between 37-15 dollars
Yea i know, that's a huge zone of reversal but that's the nature of a Shark pattern.
because of how big the reversal zone is it is too early to plot fib targets for the pattern for i currently don't have a definite price to fib from yet but something i can say is no matter where it reverses in this zone even a 0.382 and 0.50 retrace would yield a 100-200% move.
Alternatively I have also spotted a broadening and descending wedge marked in the green trendlines and are currently showing TDI-RSI bullish divergence from the lows back in December and February to our current lows a breakout of the wedge on it's own gives us a measure move back to around 300 if we're being conservative.
ZEC has never been my favorite coin but based off the technicals presented here i find no harm in trying to own atleast a few of them then forgetting about them to see how this pattern plays out.
The 'Wildcard scenario'- BTC log scale revealing incoming dump?Remember that big rising broadening wedge that BTC broke down from but not really that hard and then came right back into it?
Well it turns out that it still hasn't been violated in the logarithmic price scale, and its support (now resistance) is really really close to where we are holding right now..
What does this mean?
Well at the very least it means that btc will probably have a descent amount of sellers at that line, but it also means the a downwards rejection from that line is a very likely scenario.
What do you think about this pattern?
Could BTC get rejected so hard that it could break 10k to the downside again?
Is this just the beginning of a big bear period that takes BTC all the way down to the 2k-6k levels?
Is none of these things going to happen and BTC will just ignore that line and pump to 19k?
I honestly have no clue, but you go ahead and write your opinions in the comments!
The 'Wildcard scenario'- BTC log scale revealing incoming dump?Remember that big rising broadening wedge that BTC broke down from but not really that hard and then came right back into it?
Well it turns out that it still hasn't been violated in the logarithmic price scale, and its support (now resistance) is really really close to where we are holding right now..
What does this mean?
Well at the very least it means that btc will probably have a descent amount of sellers at that line, but it also means the a downwards rejection from that line is a very likely scenario.
What do you think about this pattern?
Could BTC get rejected so hard that it could break 10k to the downside again?
Is this just the beginning of a big bear period that takes BTC all the way down to the 2k-6k levels?
Is none of these things going to happen and BTC will just ignore that line and pump to 19k?
I honestly have no clue, but you go ahead and write your opinions in the comments!
Gold on log scale. Next target is $1616 very fast.Have a look at the long term gold price on a log scale. Look at the last bull market from 2002 until 2011.
Once again we are in a bull market. If it plays out like the last one we should see $1616 very soon -maybe in a month or two. This should be followed by an acceleration of the trend taking us through the all time high and on to $2200 by mid 2021. At that point there will be no stopping the future price ascent.
The reason for the slow rise at the start is the gold miners. They want to show their shareholders that they are selling gold forward on every rally. At some point they will realise that this is something which will make them look foolish so they will stop selling. Then there will be nothing to stop gold's ascent.
Near term target (2 months): $1616
Medium term Target (2 years): $2200
BTC recovered from multiple price crashes. Higher highs to come.The above chart shows the price of bitcoin plotted on a log scale. This is a way of easily seeing the percentage movements. On a log scale, a crash from $10 to $8 looks the same size as a crash from $10’000 to $8’000. They are both 20% crashes. If it were a linear scale, the $10 to $8 crash would be virtually invisible.
As can be seen, bitcoin has suffered many price declines of more than 20%, and some more than 50%. Yet, after each price decline, a price recovery has started. If bitcoin was a fad, a bubble, a scam, or a mania, the price would never have recovered from even the first price crash.
Yet, each price decline has been followed by a recovery to a new all-time-high. We are in the middle of one such price recovery right now.
Look carefully at the graph. As you can see, we are very close to breaking the all-time-high of $19’000. Look how fast prices recovered after previous declines. The latest decline, and subsequent recovery, are playing out like all previous patterns. Thanks to the log scale, you can see the normality of the current price behaviour and where it is likely to go.
I have my view of where the price will be in one year. (Clue: much higher). Tell me your guess. I will award a thumbs up to every answer which is within 30% of my target. Thumbs up also for any thought provoking answers.
I will publish my target price tomorrow as a reply to this blog.
Dblbottom neckline support vs. Logscale top trendline resistanceXRP gave us a tremendous breakout fakeout on the previous 1 day candle but closed above the neckline of the double bottom which is a very bullish sign...however we also closed under his pink descending trendline which is potentially the real top trendline of the descending triangle we've been in since back when the bear market got started. This trendline had been hiding on the log scale but could end up being the true most valid top trendline of the descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart. We can tell its pretty valid to some degree especially if it was able to both halt and reverse such a great looking breakout like yesterday's 1 day candle which its resistance found a way to flip from a breakout to a fakeout. They may have been satiated by the weak hands they shook though because even though price action was pushed back below the pink logscale descending top trendline, it still managed o close above the double bottom. So for now it is likely gonna be one of those heavyweight head to head battles between the support of the double bottom's neckline and the resistance of the logscale's pink trendline. As long as the current 1 day candle can find a way to close above the double bottom's neckline as well that should trigger a breakout and give us the proper momentum needed to finally break through the pink trendline's resistance. If it happens to be the true top trendline, the breakout target can take us to $1.75. The double bottom's breakout target is 59 cents so reaching 59 cents should sustain price action above the pink trendline long enough to trigger a breakout up from it as well. . .but I'm no financial advisor just throwing out opinions.
Surprise! How to use fib correctly. Log fib!In a previous idea I said if it got 50 likes I would post a surprise.
I think they don't want you to know...
Some people might already know this but I know for a fact the vast majority does not.
I hope this does not stop working now that I share it. I have plenty of other strats and if markets evolve and 1 strat stops working I know I'll be the first to evolve so I do not even mind.
Now how to draw the log fib? You simply use "Fib channel" and voila. I think it is supposed to be a fib that gets drawn diagonally, but unlike the regular fib it scales with log. So it can be diverted from its main purpose and used this way.
Some examples:
It looks like the stock market retraces have been more shallow since investors have been telling people to buy & hold.
Didn't stop billionaires from being made.
On something that went up 10 years, +600%, like gold I am not sure which one is best.
On really big moves it has to be the log one obviously. You can only see the top 10% on the linear chart and most of it is too smal because of the exponential rise.
Amazon is a good example.
I am not saying this works 100% of the time & don't go all in.
There are not a whole lot of really large moves so not a huge sample size to work with.
Since crypto has no intrisic value and most importantly is highly manipulated I expect this to keep working perfectly until the crypto cow is entirely milked and there is nothing left in.
Crypto is still at a 150 billion market cap, at under 25 billion they might think it's not worth their time anymore.
Since miners might bail out (I heard they were doing it little by little) and wash trading / ponzi exchanges are going to exit scam, it could only work once more and then suddenly end.
Crypto was nice and all when it was only made up of noobs, but in 2017 the sophisticated crowd joined and they are interested in cold hard cash, not imaginary money they won't ever be able to cash out of and transform into real concrete money (since it has negative sum rate & no value).
I wish I knew about it earlier and had money to spare. But we almost all have to deal with getting so close to making huge returns and just miss it by a hair.
Those that accepted it have been able to move forward, and we can grow (as fast as our mightly lords the regulators that control our lives will allow).
Those that are still in denial and cannot accept they missed their chance to buy early / cash out at the top, are stuck and will get milked to the last drop (until crypto is small enough the whales ignore it & they'll keep coming any time it grows).
As a conclusion; when you look at really big timeframes / or moves of maybe 1000% in a short time, use the log fib ==> This is how you do it on tradingview.
Until next bubble ;)
This pattern is looking familiar...Looking back at my all time BTC chart we see a clear channel support established where BTC has historically seen a reversal. For several weeks we have been riding right up that line. While we might expect to continue predominantly sideways movement for a several more weeks, a potential bottom appear to be establishing and as long as support continues to hold we can expect a breakout eventually, but more importantly an end to the year+ bloodbath. This is how it played out in 2015 and I will be watching for some of the same this year.
ARK/BTC - ready to pumpARK/BTC is looking like a great buy opportunity from this range.
Target: 0.0001920
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates major resistance.
This is a log chart.
Bitcoin Long Term Projection on the Log Scale TrendlineThis is the most likely long term BTC scenario that I see on the Log Scale.
The Yellow Trendline (all the way back from the 2015 bear market) will most likely need to be retested prior to the next Bull Run.
Until then, we move mostly sideways for almost a year.
Not financial advice: Trade less, accumulate more, HODL at peace.