Long Term Log Scale Trendline Being Tested on the Total Crypto. We're touching a long term up trendline on the log scale - a bounce here could signify we have found a bottom.
Logscale
What it Would take to Defeat the Big Grizzly BearThe total crypto market cap would have to cross the 120+ billion level. That number lowers with time, as the log down trendline advances into lower numbers (so, for instance, if it were to happen now, it would have to be 130 billion; if it happened in April, 120 billion would suffice to break that line): this is why time is so important. Time is as important as price. We often underestimate the importance of time.
A bunch of things are happening (Lightning Network ecosystem booming, Bakkt coming in 2019, etc.) - it's impossible to predict when that will happen. Remember also we don't need 10 billion fresh fiat into crypto to go above that, that's now how market cap works. It's not about fiat pouring into BTC/crypto, rather, it's about the PERCEPTION of value. (For instance, if by tomorrow nobody wanted to sell their crypto anymore, the supply would be reduced and the price would rise instantly without having new fiat pour into crypto).
Let's see how this develops. Have fun.
BTC to $222,211 by 2/22/21I made a probability distribution of COINBASE:BTCUSD over the next few years.
The "ghost" price action is the most likely scenario, and the red area are the other possibilities.
The Blue area seems to be a great accumulation zone.
Logarithmic fractal view with monthly Ichi This is a view of the logarithmic price time view of btc with the fractal from previous ATH bull run.
$BTC LOG SCALE ON COINBASE FAT BEARIf you look at the daily Coinbase chart and switch it to a log scale chart. Then you will see that the uptrend is stronger than you thought but you will also see that we have been in a Bear market since price closed below the 200 EMA back in January of this year. I have been told that many long term institutional investors use Log Scale charts -vs- standard Linear Scale charts when they are making TA decisions. Either way I feel that it is in my best interest to try and swim in the direction of the current. With that being said institutional money has been short since last December when the $BTC Futures contracts launched. Who do you think ran the price way up to $20K just so they could short it at the tipsy top? Every week since they have been short, balance heavy in the futures market so until we see them swing their positions to the long side then I feel that we are looking at more downward pressure. Not only do we have problems with several adult man children fighting over their toys ($BCH Drama) but their is no one with a vested interest to defend $BTC at this level. What I mean by this is, when the CME and the CBOT decided to launch $BTC futures contracts then on that day they started buying physical $BTC and how many years did it take them to stand up their products? How many years ago was that? The institutions are into $BTC much lower than many would think so don't be surprised to see $BTC slide to $1,500 or lower. Just my 2 nickles. DCA + HODL = Success. Viva La Crypto!!!
MIGHT JOHN MCAFEE BE RIGHT? The log scale proves it !The one scale pro's use for longterm predictions is still the log scale. It might sound crazy, but it could predict what is coming.
Truth is:
Bitcoin has traded in a logarithmic channel since the beginning, and it would near/touch the bottom of the largest, blue channel for a 3th time.
This is a big probability as it is seasonally around the same period of the year atm, which is 'October'.
In october 2011 we had a start of a bullmarket, a stop around the end of the year of 2013 = 2 years.
In october 2013 we had a midterm break and continuation of a bullrun again until end of 2013 as said previously.
In october 2015 we had a bottom and BTC marked a trendline very clearly and was in a bullmarket till end of 2017 = 2 years
Now we're october 2018, and there's a potential to break up and go to insane levels, if we get rejected from the bottom of the blue parallel again.
Levels of 50,000 and even levels of 1000,000 usd are in this case really possible, and John Mcafee might have a point.
If it would hit 1M, BTC will definitely be saturated as we would be entering a trillion dollar market, but... that would be just a glimpse of the total stock market ... so who knows?
On the regular scale it looks much out of proportion, but on the log scale it makes sense.
On the other hand, there could be a hold up for about a year, if bitcoin breaks down from the blue parallel (which never happened)
and swap to the pink parallel to go to levels of about 4000 usd, but I believe certainly not more than that, eventually it should go up around October 2019 then !
Let's hope we don't have to wait a year longer, but in this case the highest probability is that bitcoin will go up right around this time... or at least end of this year,
which it then would follow the green parallel.
All this means that a rise to 50 K is certainly possible !
We could have a bullrun until end of this year, or until mid next year, as 4 years ago, BTC went into a mid-phase until april 2013.
So, even if I personally cannot believe this myself, it is a very high probability !
So far the TA explained what John Mcafee, and... some hedge fund managers projected as well.
The run from OCT. 2011 until NOV. 2013 went from 2 usd to 1100 usd in 2 years ! That's 550 X,
with a break from APRIL 2013 til OCTOBER 2013 !
On the regular scale it would look like this in my older projection:
Bitcoin gets massive support from converging trendlinesLets zoom out on a weekly chart and plot some obvious trend lines on the log scale. We can clearly see that there are 3 major trendlines converging that should stop the rot and provide a base to move upward from. If we use the 2014/2015 movement I have predicted what could follow in the coming months . . . .
August 2015 - November 2018 Bull Run - Is this the end?A trendline from the August 2015 low on the log chart has just been touch for the first time since January 2017. A breach of the trendline will see the August 2015 VWAP as the next target. Lets see how it plays out.
Still bullish on $btc, but stay away from the red box!Using log chart this doesn't look so bearish yet, but we need to bounce at the trendline... if we go that low!
My Crazy Idea About The Dow JonesThis is mostly for fun, but also an illustration of a worst case scenario. Saw this crazy fractal and thought....what if? I love the fact that this chart has so much price history.
In all seriousness though, if the DJI fails to consolidate in this range and make a higher high soon, we can assume it will drop. We have a nice double top formation so far. Buying here is risky, but could have a high reward if you can time the next top (if there is one), because after that, it could get very ugly.
If we drop hard now, we have immediate support in the 15000 area, and then around 10000. Based on this log graph, we have A LOT of room to fall in the event of a crisis. If those supports mentioned above and outlined on my chart fail to hold, we could fall straight down to the support created by the 2008 recession (my yellow line). That happens to coincide nicely with the long term uptrend line that dates all the way back to the Great Depression. If we fall below that, all bets are off.
If we move higher from here, I expect a final blow off top (this is also what happened right before the Great Depression). The Great Depression fractal (circled in red) looks very ominous. You may have to scroll to the left to see it.
This is not financial advice, nor am I a qualified financial advisor. This is just my perspective on how things COULD play out from here, and I'm mostly just curious to see how it plays out. I do not have any open positions here at this time.
Bitcoin Log Channel ForecastThis is not a chart to be traded off of, extrapolating trends from such early, low volume, price action has many issues. I consider these lines to be an interesting observation. More trustworthy technical analysis techniques are to be used for any tradeable analysis.
Simple weekly long term BTC log chartShort term (3-4 months) it's possible to experience lower prices as we test the bottom range. Long term, though, BTC 2.94% is still very bullish.
note: you may have to manipulate the scale a bit to get a better long term picture.
Eth USD entire history points to LOG support at $250 rock bottomWhole market got obliterated, and Eth looks like it will find support at 250 and reverse from here. Next time it reaches the top of it's hype cycle it will be several thousands of dollars.
How To Trade BTC***Please write in the comments if you see the chart correctly. I wanted to post this yesterday already but when I posted it I could see the chart. So I don't know if it is just on my end or if you also don't see the chart. In case you also don't see the chart I posted it as a snapshot below.***
Introductory Remarks:
Ok so first of all I am trying to make this your number one reference for trading BTC.
I'll try to give a super detailed analysis covering everything you need to know in order to trade BTC for the next cycle.
So, if you have any questions don’t hesitate to ask them.
And also, if you found this analysis helpful please show it some appreciation by liking, commenting and sharing this article, because I invested a lot of time into this.
I will update this idea a lot over the next couple of hours/days, because I want to highlight different indicators, timeframes, etc.
So, this first part will be covering the ins and outs of the weekly chart of BTCUSD.
Ok so know that this is out the way lets go straight to the analysis.
Part 1: The Weekly Chart
Ok so as you probably already know, I like to look at the BIG PICTURE of things.
Therefore, we are analysing the weekly log chart of BTC for today.
As you can see we are in a huge price wedge right now.
And if you take a closer look you will see that we are at the bottom of this wedge which also builds a huge support ($6,000).
Again, it is also a big psychological number, which we visited a couple of times in the past.
We are already extremely squeezed near the end of the wedge where the price must go one of 2 ways up (O1/green lines) or down (O2/red lines) .
***THE WXYZ ELLIOTT WAVE PATTERN I USED HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ELLIOTE WAVES***
I just used the lines to visualise the approximate expected price movement.
Ok so now that we are talking about the expected price movement, lets talk about the expected targets.
As you probably already noticed we have the same target ($35,000) entirely independent from the two possible scenarios.
The only differences will be:
The amount they move after breakout (O1 = 400%, O2 = 700%)
The time (of course we would reach the target faster with O1) and if we end up in O2 we will see even more blood for a longer amount of time.
So now the question is which scenario do you want more?
I am asking you this question because most of the beginners want to see the bull run come as fast as possible.
I know it hurts seeing all this blood, but I would prefer O2 with about 7x profit .
Conclusion Part 1:
Right now, I am just watching the market. In both cases we have approximately the same target for the next bull run, therefore I would I don’t have a problem with the price going even further down.
In both cases I will look to enter the market once we broke out of the wedge and retrace to the breakout level.
I expect the price to go even further down and why I do so I will show in the next updates.
So again, if you find this article helpful show it some love.
The next updates/parts will come over the next couple of hours/days depending on how much I get motivated from your interactions.
Bitcoin vs Gravity - The 30 Week Moving Average ChallengeAs a general rule, you should not consider hodling any asset that is below the 30 week moving average, the same applies here to Bitcoin. Until Bitcoin is able to cross over the 30 week moving average, expect the overall momentum to be downward and all bull rallies to fail at or before the point of the 30 week moving average. When/if we close above the 30 week moving average, expect the gravity to change and to pull it upwards.
We recently tested the 30 week moving average and as you can see, it hasn't gone well so far. To get above the 30 week moving average I believe Bitcoin will need some major news in it's favor, such as an ETF being approved. Once we get above the 30 week moving average, I believe we'll see institutions fomo into Bitcoin as Mike Novagratz suggested. Until then, the weekly MA will continue to be an area you should consider taking profit.
Note: This is a log chart and I drew the 30 week MA (Cyan) above the ghost candles to only provide a general idea of how far down we can go. As you can see, we may hit the main upward supporting trendline before crossing over the 30 week MA, or we may cross over the 30 week MA tomorrow. Either way, the safest thing to do is wait until we close above it.
ema 100 crossed throw ema 200.(alert) this type of crossed occured once in 9/2014 & it can show us the market is clearly bearish and in a high chance we can see triangle breaking down.
good luck.
#Bitcoin long term log scale analysis #btcusd $btc #cryptoBitcoin long term log scale analysis:
To analyse the percent change of bitcoin over the long term period.
What we are seeing here is two major corrections from bitcoin since double digits prices .
1st one when btc crossed the 250 level barrier. It lasted 91days with a 74% drop in price, in the same period the RSI dropped 52%
2nd one when btc crossed the 1000 level barrier. It lasted close to 406days with 87% drop in price and RSI dropping 71% in the same period to a low of 27.5
Currently we are in the 3rd major correction that is seen afer btc broke the 10k level and faced exhaustion while coming close to 20k
We've seen 71% drop in prices so far(196days) while the RSI in the same period has dropped 54% to a low of 41.3 .
The 91 Days correction (-74%) was till the weekly 30MA(green) & 78.6fib support of the move till 259
The 406 days correction (-87%) was till 152 level that was a prev resistance level, in the 78.6-88.6 fib region
Btc found decent support at the weekly 100MA during this correction period.
Currently the weekly 100MA is at 4607
78.6fib support is at 4328
Previous swing high: 4980 will also provide good support
BTCUSD Long - research onlyBTC-USD history and probably far future.
This sketch is for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin Channel: Bull & Bear zonesview at longterm. created in Apri. BITFINEX:BTCUSD seems to be bouncing nicely in between the trendlines and along the channel. any break out from this channel could indicate bull/bear market incoming.
disclaimer: my first analysis
