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AUDUSD OUTLOOKLooking short on this pair, we can see some bullish movements on the smaller time frames with upside targets of 0.7500 then look for a possible short from 0.75500. We have a weekly Trend line bounce (Price Rejection). We have a possible bullish harmonic forming (if our second target has been met then the harmonic will be complete providing us with a potential long setup). Depending on your trading and money risk management strategy you can either enter a Sell limit order at 0.75500 or set up an order on the break below the trend line once PA is confirmed. We have two downside targets being 0.72250 then 0.6900. Once each target has been met we must re analyse to distinguish if our next target is still valid; we can then manage our trades accordingly. *** TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
EURUSD OUTLOOKLooking bearish atm as price has been rejecting and the Daily downward trendline with strong bearish Candlesticks in play. We have a possible downside ABCD formation (Target to TL Price Level1.12025 and Stop Loss1.1300). However, I would be seeking the bigger move, but must take each target level into consideration and must re analyse to ensure our next target is still valid. We have a small bearish Harmonic pattern in play which add confluence to our first downside target. We then have a possible Bullish Harmonic in play with possible downside targets of 1.1000. However, the trendline must be breached and demonstrate strong bearish momentum.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
Short Measured Move Down. I think 1x TP will be reached. It would be a measured move from bear breakout during asian session a little earlier. Seems probable we will get an equidistant move down (based on height of the breakout bars). 2x TP would be ideal... and we might get enough momentum once into US session. If you are a strong bear, this could be a great win. We will have to wait and see. Also, expecting RSI (20) on Hour Chart to reach oversold area. It has hit those levels days past. If things go sour, I will update and say if I'm cancelling this plan.
Short
by still_waters
4
GBPUSD SKA CAPITAL Looking short on this pair, firstly looking at an upside move to potential levels 1.31650-1.31850 (Trend line bounce).From this level we would await key bearish PA to develop; we would then seek entry to downside targets of 1.3070 then our ideal target 1.29750. The ideal target would be valid on the basis of a bearish breakout below 1.30750. Our management target being 1.3070. We harve a possible bullish harmonic pattern in play which provides us with the confluence of an upside move from current support. As you could see we have further confluence with Senkou Span A (Green Cloud) acting as Resistance. We then have a Kumo Down Twist forming and price being below the clouds and the 200 EMA demontrates bearish momentum and a possible continuation to the downside. We have lower highs which is demonstrated in the defending channel. Furthermore, we can possibly see a bearish ABCD formation to our downside targets. TRADE SETUP We would wait for price to reach the trend line and target of the Harmonic pattern before looking for the short (sell) trade setup, you can set up a sell limit order however we prefer to wait to setup a sell stop order to endure we enter on the basis of bearish PA. (Shorter term traders can look to buy to levels 1.31550). As you could see our stops are placed at 1.32300, stops could also be placed at 1.3300. However, we would prefer to have our stops just above the Senkou Span A & B and above the trend line as a break above would demonstrate further bullish momentum. Therefore a possible strong setup would be as follows: SELL STOP/LIMIT ORDER: 1.31550 TAKE PROFIT (Management): 1.30850 TAKE PROFIT (Ideal): 1.29750 STOP LOSS (ideal): 1.3200 STOP LOSS (Possible) 1.3300 ***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
1
GBPJPY SKA CAPITAL OUTLOOKAs you could see outlined on the chart we believe this pair is looking bearish to possible targets of 136.500 then possibly 134.00. There are several ways this trade setup could be undertaken. You can either wait for a breakout and retest of the lower trend line with bearish candlestick confirmation. However, we would be entering this trade around 140.30. Stops could be placed just above the upper descending trend line or above the previous highest high (Above 143.500). If price breaks above the pattern then this trade setup is no longer valid.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBPUSD SKACAPITAL We are looking long on this pair. We published an idea last week with a forecast on the monthly time frame. (See Linked Idea). However, as you could see price has completed the Bearish Monthly ABCD formation with the 161.8% testing the monthly trend line and daily channel line. As explained in the previous post we also have divergence. We would now await strong confirmation on the 4 hour window for our entry. OUR TARGETS: - TARGET 1: 1.3500 - TARGET 2: 1.3800 - TARGET 3: 1.4200 (ONCE EACH TARGET HAS BEEN MET OUR TRADES WILL BE MANAGED AND ANALYSED TO DISTINGUISH IF OUR NEXT TARGETS ARE SRTILL VALID). On the other hand, if price breaks below the channel and the monthly trend line then we can possibly see further downside targets of 1.2600 then 1.2100. However, we are long on this trade. We will be looking short on the basis of price breaking below the channel and trendline.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBPUSD MONTHLY OUTLOOKWe are prepared for all scenarios. This is not a trade setup this is just an outline a structure. The trade setups are set in our desired time frames. As there are uncertainties in the market we like to analyse both outcomes and just follow what price action demonstrates. However, as you could see we have lower highs with a possible target to create our 3rd lower high on a trend line bounce. We have divergence which represents the sellers are not strong as they seem. We still play it safe. On the break out of the mini trend line, our first upside target would be 1.4000-1.4500. If price does break above the downward trend line and disrespects the lower high structure then we would be waiting for a retest to the trend line and a possible continuation up to targets 1.6000 then 1.7000 and so on. On the other hand, if price does break below the lower trend line, below 1.3000 then we can see further downside targets of 1.2000 then possibly 1.0650. This is just a forecast. ***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
BREXIT GBP: USE USDJPY AS A RISK-BAROMETER & WAIT FOR LONDON 8AMIndicators to check BEFORE GBP Shorting for confirmation I also suggest using two other key pieces of information BEFORE shorting GBP. 1. Use USDJPY as a measure of market risk appetite and stability - As you can see below UJ has traded with a tight 38pip range vs GBP$ at 180pips. Therefore we can use UJ as a measure of stability and risk appetite: 1) because of its stability - UJ isn't acting as susceptible to the volatility "noise" - with 4.5x less range; and 2) because as we know UJ is the "safe haven" FX pair which is sold massively when markets are trading risk-off. or risk averse. - How to use UJ for GBP direction: Assuming UJ is the stable measure of risk (which has been true for the past week) it is fair to ALSO assume: 1) A rise in UJ means increased JPY selling which means there is a stronger risk-on attitude in the market as investors shed "safe yen" - buying GBP in the uncertain BREXIT environment IMO is considered the "risk-on" move - SO we can confirm GBP rallies with a rise in UJ 2) Conversely a fall in UJ means JPY buying, which means investors are seeking risk-off/ safer currency plays - selling GBP in the BREXIT uncertainty environment IMO is considered the "risk-off/ low risk" move - SO we can confirm new GBP shorts with a fall in UJ *If you believe that the risk-on/ risk-off moves are the other way round e.g. GBP upside is the low risk play - then you can STILL use UJ as the indicator, just the other way around than above. IMO and logically, GBP lower in this uncertain UK environment is the LOW RISK trade - especially given we traded at 1.46 8wks ago (not much downside is priced at these levels thus GBP moves lower are lower risk) 2. Wait for London open between 8am-10am GMT (4-6 hours from now) - In these past weeks, the London open has been a key catalyst for GBP direction ESPECIALLY on the Sunday-Monday Asia which over as all of the weekend information is priced in for the biggest FX clients in LDN. - Therefore it is prudent NOT to take a position until the big money volatility/ fluctuations/ noise is out of the way otherwise SL's may be susceptible to being hit AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, we may misjudge the market direction/ sentiment (given LDN is the largest FX Flow session). - Several times the market direction and momentum has changed or been confirmed aggressively during the London open 8am-10am GMT so I think this indicator is a vital determinant
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
USDJPY OUTLOOK 950+ PipsPossibly looking long up to levels 106.00 then possibly 112.00. However price will possibly move down to the monthly and weekly trend line giving us the 3rd trend line bounce. We would then seek bullish momentum at this level. However, if price breaks below 102.00 and demonstrates bearish momentum will then be looking for our short targets of 98.00-96.00. The red dashed arrow represents a possibility of price rejecting from this level and moving down in a ABCD formation. However, our upside targets are more preferable but we are prepared for both scenarios.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
CADJPY POTENTIAL LONG THEN GOOD SELLIf price breaks above the inner trendline then we would be looking long to level 83.00-83.200. Once price reaches this level we would ideally be looking for a short setup down to 80.00-79.850. However, we take it step up step and be patient with the trades. On the one hour window the 200 EMA is acting as Magnetic Resistance in our target area on the upside. However if price breaks above the downward trendline breaking above 83.250 then the trade setup to the downside would no longer be valid. If we do have strong bearish PA at this level we would be looking short down to 81.650 then 80.000 for a 300+ pip downside move.
Long
by SERGENAYTUG94
EURUSD INTERIM SHORT THEN POSSIBLE LONG SKACAPITAL Price is currently testing the multiple tested S/R SD trend line. - Now if price breaches below this level we can see further downside momentum to potential target 1.11750. We may encounter a break below retest then bearish confirmation. - If price breaks below the lower channel line with demonstration of bearish momentum and PA then we will be going short to our next “Potential Target” 1.10500. (Careful on this pair due to the EU Referendum/) We have a possible bearish harmonic pattern forming; if we begin to see bullish momentum around 1.11750-1.11650 then we can look to enter long positions to our potential targets of 1.1400 then 1.15850. - To be on the safest side to enter long positions for the bigger move up to “D” we must enter on the break above the descending trend line from “X” to “B”. - Traders can enter long from the lower channel line where stated but have management levels around 1.12500 as the market can change around this level. AS EXPLAINED THIS IS JUST AN FORECAST; WE JUST NOW FOLLOW WHAT THE MARKET DEMONSTRATES THROUGH PRICE ACTION; INDIVIDUALS ON MY ANALYSIS SERVICE HAVE FURTHER IN DEPTH ANALYSIS BROKEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TIME FRAMES WHERE TRADE SETUPS WILL BE PROVIDED... TRADE AT OWN RISK
by SERGENAYTUG94
EURUSD STILL BEARISH OUTLOOK overall for this pair in the longer run our pyscological target is around 1.1800-1.2000. However, that is based on the larger longer term time frames. In the interim we are looking short on this pair. We sent out a signal where we would short the breakout of the upward trend line which was breached from the volatility caused by the fundamental data. However, as you could see we still have the head and shoulder pattern with a defending channel of lower highs and lower lows with a possible downside target creating the next lower low. Our first downside target being the blue box 1.12650 where the 200 EMA is acting as magnetic support. Once price has reached this level we may possibly see a retracement and continuation to our next downside target 1.12000. Once target one has been met we must re-analyse to ensure our next target is still valid. If price breaks above the channel then this trade setup will no longer be valid. Stops ideally should be above 1.1400. ***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
1
CADJPY SKACAPITAL As you are all aware we posted analysis last week on this pair explaining we can see bullish movement before our downside projections come into play. We now await PA confirmation on the smaller time frame to enter short to our downside targets of 82.50 then possibly 80.00. We have Key structure breached with the first upward trend line breached and retested with continuation to the downside. It then created a higher low retesting the second trend line. We now await PA confirmation to enter short.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94