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S&P500 Long Term Moving AveragesThis chart shows ES with 4 long term averages - 1 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 20 year. I marked some periods where we dipped below the 1 year average and some volume spikes I saw as relevant. 2015 - Eurozone Crisis: The issues in Europe cause us to finally break the long held trend for the first time since the GFC recovery. It was preceded by a high volume wick in 2014 and another in 2015, both of which seem to have established a bottom for the upcoming scare. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~15%. 2018 - Repo Crisis: This period was also proceeded by a high volume wick but contrary to the last, it did not establish the floor for the upcoming drop. Instead, it was a bounce off the 1 year EMA trend. We saw volume start to rise leading to a large downside candle that signified the bottom. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~22%. 2020 - Covid Crisis: Everyone knows what happened here. The sudden monster volume candle is due to the unexpected nature of this period and how dire the situation seemed. The bottom was almost exactly at the 10 year moving average before violently bouncing back up. Peak to Bottom in this period saw a drop of ~36%. The current crisis seems bad in the moment but with respect to these prior periods it is not crushing. We already have seen a peak to bottom drop of ~15% so matching the 2015 era would mean we have bottomed already. Matching the 2018 era would mean an additional ~10% from the current price and would put us around 3800. Matching the Covid era would be a disaster and would see us drop another 30% from here. The 35-40% peak to bottom drop would likely lineup at the 10 year moving average assuming it plays out the same (obviously it won't be exactly the same - these crashes are unpredictable) My opinion is that a Covid type crash is not in the cards. Things are nowhere near as bleak as they were then and there would be a strong fiscal/monetary response before we even got there. Also, black swan events are unpredictable so there is no point doing anything in advance to predict them - you can't. 2018 is a somewhat similar scenario but the Repo market is not at risk like it was then. The fed is also being much more clear about rate hikes this time around and clarity is bullish. I think the most similar scenario is 2015. We are seeing trouble in Europe after a recovery rally. Bonds look risky and everyone is calling for another crash. Earnings are still phenomenal and weak companies are getting flushed out without crashing the whole market. Maybe we retest the 4100 lows or even 4000 but I don't think we'll see a huge drop below that. If we do, I think we'll see massive buying pressure around 3800 and bears will run out of bad news and buying power. For a rally look for decreasing VIX and volume and for the Fed to stick to a clear plan. This would be better for stock buying than options and the 2021 WSB guys could get crushed by talented stock pickers. Buy quality and hold long term.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Seth-Goldberg
[ETC/USD] Long term: What is the future of ETC?TREND: Trending line has clear bearish tendencies since the end of February. SUPPORT: We are currently missing any major support line until around 2.662USD. Either we will create a new support by side action or we will fall in correlation with the trend line. VOLUME: Volume is proving to be not big enough for bulls. We can clearly see that bears are taking the lead. Should we see some change? If yes, then already mentioned side action is needed with higher highs. RSI (100days): It is currently on 42 (meaning of life?) which is not hugely oversold, therefore there is still lots of room for selling action. Summary and prediction? I see ETC slowly falling down to the area of 2.662USD until the half/end of January. If you agree, then your like is appreciated :) Happy trading.
BITFINEX:ETCUSDShort
by Astral_Rascal
Front Curve Crude Light Volatility: Mar'22/Apr'22Upside vs Downside interchangeably for short or long risk exposure at current flat front CL1! price. The IV stands at 73%, which is more conservative than the highlighted risk profile. Not a tradable setup; just for reference timeframes when looking for a bias. The median line, from which the % change is measured, is derived by using the Inside Pitchfork tool; it is the least inclined from Pitchfork tools, provides a less aggressive slope for the long term outlook.
NYMEX:CLK2022
by Zoen_Trieste
ADA Bulls came back into the game and aimed for key $1.0 level Cardano price reversed its downtrend and has been moving higher with the support of an ascending trendline. ADA coin accumulated above 2022 year lows before recovery, indicating buyers' strong dominance. The ADA coin is trading into the Ichimoku cloud in terms of the daily price graph. Going by the ADA forecast, the bulls are once again targeting the psychological round of $1.0. Amidst the recovery, ADA appears to be in the Ichimoku Cloud (RedZone) in the context of the daily price chart, with the leading Span A acting as a bearish barrier. Besides, the key SAP B (present at 1.005) could influence the bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slowly moving up and is looking at 57-mark in the context of the daily price chart. The RSI is trading above the semi-line (50-mark) after a prolonged period; buyers can take advantage of this bullish breakout. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is at 18-points, suggesting the slightly bullish momentum for the Cardano coin. To the psychological level of $1.0, buyers may continue the recovery, and near $1.0, a pullback is likely to occur. Now it remains to be seen whether the bulls will be able to move above $1.0. Support level - $0.80 and $0.50 Resistance level - $1.0 and $1.6
Long
by TheCoinRepublic
Watch the US 10Y Yield chart as it approaches MAJOR resistanceI am taking a closer look at a long-term chart of the US 10Y yield today, I consider this to be a very important chart. Why? Firstly, Government debt continued to sell-off yesterday, with bond bears spurred on by more hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Powell, and secondly, I prefer to look at yield charts as I consider that the data is clearer and not disrupted or distorted by the ‘rollovers’ of the bond futures market. Ok I have done something a little strange on this chart, I can clearly see the down trend in evidence going back nearly 40-years and yet when I try to draw a trendline, I can only get a resistance line (a line that joins only 2 points and not 3). Why is this important? Because I want to know exactly at what point this nearly 40-year bull market capitulates - so what have I done? I have instead connected the lows from 1993 (there are at least 4 major lows) and drawn a parallel off this support line. Our long-term resistance line is at 2.52 BUT our parallel line is higher at 2.63 AND we have the 200-month ma in close proximity at 2.68. Conclusion – the MAJOR resistance lies at 2.63/68 and these are the KEY levels to watch. I have been watching these levels for at least the past 2-years, because not only will this will be the final death knell of the bond market, but because we also suspect at this level the stock market could also capitulate. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
TVC:US10Y
by The_STA
XAUUSD Predicted to be BullishXAUUSD Predicted to be Bullish XAUUSD analysis . We will analyze in H1 TF, where we see that Gold is experiencing a bearish trend or down. In moments like this, we can take short positions when the price has been confirmed or has broken through the strongest support level. . For the current hour and today, Gold most likely will form a double bottom pattern on H1 TF, you can all see it. And if that's the case, we can take advantage of this to buy on weakness or buy in areas where the market has confirmed the trend, namely at the price of 1929. . The level of accuracy is uncertain because the character of the gold market is very volatile, so be careful when opening trading positions in this market. . - Don't forget to follow me to get the next idea update
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yunusbachtiarr
1
SANDBOX - $SANDI'm looking to accumulate Sand into my portfolio, so i'm posting this to see if i can see any patterns forming in how $Sand does in this current market state. Short Term - I see Sand retracing a bit from today's HSBC news pump back to retest the previous support; the news helped break out of the current down trend. I'm expecting to see sideways action for the next month leading into the summer. Long term - DCA during the dips and if it dips into the green area of support, then i will be buying more to lower my average. Not financial advice - always do your own research. This chart is for speculation purposes only.
GEMINI:SANDUSD
by Kenjin_Tanoshii
BTC on the path to retest 50-55k resistance zoneHaha what a laugh we had today with J powell (FOMC) meeting announcing that the FED is going to raise rates of 0.25% lol what a great actor he is! Let's be clear your gov has absolutely no intention of fighting inflationation at all! it won't stop until they have completely destroyed the middle class and buy it all!! Any major chaos is being use as cover to inflate, raise energy, gas and print more money for all theirs friends, bankers, gaz and military companies but not YOU! They do not care about you and you must understand the game and protect yourself against hyperinflation and the biggest crisis we are going to face! I knew the market will react positively and i wasn't worry about the FOMOC meeting of today and i mentionned several times in the past weeks that btc was definitely in an area of interest where price has historically always react in a positive way. I also mentionned that this was no area for short but place where you should be looking for long! In my hubble opinion i truly believe that we are seeing a pattern reversal confirmation since btc broke that descending resistance trendline we were rejecting since November 2021 Now btc forming a higher low on a higher timeframe, see my weekly chart above ( confirmation that we reverse that bearish trend). I am now waiting btc to clear this 45k resistance to rise to the next Resistance zone 50-55K.
Long
by ElDiablo0604
NIKE ABC CORRECTIONMarket just finished 1-5 Elliot wave and started going down, we are waiting for it to bounce off of a 50% fib zone, retrace to a trend and go down to our demand zone, where we should enter the market for a long position and expect retrace to 50% fib zone of downwards movement. AROON: Shows gain in a bearish momentum so it means we should hit our 50% fib zone Supply/demand zone: Shows strong demand zone at 79$ zone where we should get our entry entry: 79 invalidation: 48 (I will not be putting invalidation on my trade because Nike is on of the industry's giants and we should see rise in price in a long term.) target: 118
NYSE:NKELong
by vf_investment
1
long SILVERSimilar pattern to the analysis just drafted on GOLD, applies to SILVER, where we have seen chart patterns being highly correlated to xau movements, combined to a significant increase of physical delivery between the major players. We will play on silver with same logic: very tight stop, in correspondence of today lows and TP level at 28. SL will be moved higher to protect profits. We will obviously take in consideration FED pressconference, if the trade is still open, to manage the risk during news time.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Atlas-Horizon
Bitcoin - When in doubt, zoom out.Do you believe in the long-term future of BTC? Having rallied to 69k for a top in late 2021 from COVID-19 panic lows set in March 2020, BTC has since retraced around 50 percent to the lows of 33.5k set on January 24th, 2022. 


In the current environment of endless short-term bulls and bears, it is easy to forget the initial reason why we have invested in the first place, the exponential long-term trajectory of this decentralized, secure, and scarce asset that attracted us to this space. Although cliched, ‘When in doubt, zoom out’ is an important principle, especially 
If you’re a long-term believer of bitcoin. 

In this post, I present three scenarios for BTC to play out in the medium term. I will also discuss how I am navigating this uncertain market. Bullish Scenario - BOOM before DOOM
 In this bullish scenario, we would see a breakout of the current range of 45k in the next couple of months, with a potential higher-high set at the mid-50ks for a base for another leg higher and a parabolic breakout above our macrocycle highs of 69k towards 120k+ or so, towards the end of the year or early 2023. This parabolic run could be similar to November 2017 bull market top. It would likely be followed by a heavy 70%+ correction, falling below the Gaussian channel depicted, and bottoming at around the 200 Week Moving Average, which has marked the bottom for the past three market cycles. Fundamentally, this would play out based on lengthening-cycle, diminishing returns theory, that bitcoin cycles lengthen with time, thus, taking longer than the 4 years predicted by many analysts using stock to flow model.

You can read more about the Lengthening cycle theory here: 

beincrypto.com - Not affiliated. 
Note, a 70% correction is a conservative prediction compared with the past blow-off top cycle corrections which have been 95%, 90%, and 85% respectively. This coincides with 120k or so being a conservative figure for a market cycle top.

 So, why might there be diminished returns? Well, there are many reasons for this. Firstly, the BTC market is vastly more institutional. We can see that 80% of trading volume is now Institutions and only 20% is retail as of 14th March 2022. Compare this to the 2017 bull run, where over 90% was retail. Institutional investors in markets tend to reduce volatility. Secondly, and most importantly, BTC has a magnitude market cap of 800B compared with 2017 and 2013. Larger asset markets tend to be less volatile than smaller asset markets. Compare a small-cap or micro-cap stock to a Large cap dividend-paying stock for example.

 
 Sideways scenario - Consolidation before BOOM. For the sideways consolidation scenario, we would see the price consolidate within the current macro range lows of 28.8k and 69k until the price breaks out to the upside to new all-time highs. This range-bound price movement could see many relief rallies and breakdowns (some being below the Gaussian channel for the 5 day depicted) adhering to the macrocycle lows and highs. Because the 200 Week moving average is up-trending, it would eventually catch up to the sideways moving bitcoin price, given enough time. Depending on the moving average position, it could test it later this year, or even early 2023. This test of the 200W MA would mark the bottom of the 4-year cycle. An important distinction for the breakout is that the all-time high blow-off top, will not occur until AFTER the 2024 halving event and not during the current four-year cycle. Historically halving events have preceded major bull cycle market runs in the following year, as can be seen with 2016 and 2020. It assumes that 69k was the market cycle peak and that four-year market cycle theory holds and cycles do not lengthen. Why could this consolidation occur? Firstly, it is historically plausible. Note, we did see a major consolidation during the 2018 bear market at around 6K before the major market capitulation at 3k. Secondly, institutions have largely bought into bitcoin in or around the 30k region. As this is the cost basis of many institutional investors, this may serve to prop up markets primarily through psychological means. The mass institutional adoption of bitcoin and vastly increased market cap could also shrink volatility more than expected, perhaps to the desired 50-55% to keep it in the range. Bearish Scenario - DOOM before BOOM. In this scenario, we would see an eventual capitulation below the macro lows at around $30,000 with a downside target to the 200 moving average on a more aggressive timeframe. A major catalyst for this could be a black swan style event, e.g. economic collapse of the bond market, world war 3. Alternatively, it may slowly bleed down to the 200-week moving average. The former would likely result in a faster and deeper correction price target in the low 20ks or even wicks below, with a rapid bounce, and the latter likely result in a shallower correction to the mid 20k region. This is due to the nature of the 200-week moving average, trending up with time. This would be followed by a consolidation phase and trend higher going into the 2024 halving, before a blow-off top to new all-time highs. Similar to the 'sideways scenario', this assumes that the four-year cycle theory holds, meaning that 69k was the top for the current market cycle. The thesis for the price being bearish over the medium term fits with past bull market collapses such as 2018, where a protracted bear market usually follows in the year after a parabolic run such as 2017. So you are predicting it will go up, down, or sideways? YES. Noone on TradingView, has a crystal ball, regardless of how skilled they are. Trading and investing are inherently both, probability-based games, and to be successful, it is important to plan and prepare for multiple scenarios, whilst also holding a primary thesis for what the market will do.
 Buy Low - Sell High: The 200 Week Moving average and Gaussian Channel A common principle for long-term investors of an increasing asset is the concept of 'Buying low and Selling High'. The beauty of this lies in that this is ambiguous to market direction, and encourages investors to buy at opportune times. There are many ways to do this, using technical, fundamental, and quantitative analysis. One way, that I propose here is using the Gaussian Channel and 200 Week moving average. Take a look at the chart for 2014, 2018, and 2020 corrections: The chart illustrates the past price action of bitcoin returning to the 200 week moving average after major parabolic moves and falling below the Gaussian channel range. This represents a potential accumulation range from the gaussian channel where if one would have maximized their returns if they had bought, and has marked the bottom (for 200-week ma) or 50% from the bottom (for the Gaussian channel lower line) of past bear markets. (illustrated). How am I navigating the markets? Not financial advice. Bitcoin will at some point, retrace to the 200 week moving average. It could be later this year or only after another bullish move higher has occurred further down the track. There will be periods that BTC will remain below the Gaussian channel of the 5 day, which represent undervalued prices. At the time of writing, the accumulation range is between 20k and 38k. I am accumulating in this range, with buy orders which increase in size as we approach 20k, keeping order size smaller towards the top of the range. I have a current smaller position in BTC to hedge the opportunity cost of missing out on a shorter-term bull run this year. If you liked this post, please consider taking a look at some of my free scripts, I love developing software and apps in my spare time, and trading / investing is a passion of mine. This post is NOT financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions, this is for entertainment and education purposes only. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by TraderHalai
4
Short and Long +150%The stock has already unloaded enough, but the closest support is only around $57-60. Overall, this is not a good time for Chinese ADRs. Therefore, for the time being, fall until the situation improves, then rebound from the support zone to $130. ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Stock trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment let us know how do you see this opportunity and forecast
NYSE:BABAShort
by QuantumLabSignals
5
BTC still on an overall uptrend, regardless of inflation When in doubt, Zoom Out! Notes on Bitcoin: -We're still in an overall uptrend, hitting higher-lows. -Institutional adoption helped carry us to nearly 70k. -Since COVID, investors continued to pump it and take profits. -Evergrande will be the deciding factor whether we break below all the support it still has. -Inflation slowed the growth, trapped us in a channel for the time-being. -Russia/Ukraine war isn't helping, but it also isn't hurting, even with all the news of disabled/blocked transactions in Russia. -Alt coins follow BTC, so if an Alt coin is down, it's because BTC is down... but don't dismiss other factors such as bullish/bearish news around the individual alt coins. -Now, more than ever, is going to be your best opportunity to invest in BTC. -Even if it dropped another 5k in value, you'd stand to profit in the long run when the markets recover and reverse into another bull run to 100k. -Keep an eye on the news & current events. Those with deep pockets can still profit off BTC thru day trading, but others should Buy & Hold, and accumulate. -While hundreds of billions of dollars have come flooding in from institutional investors, there's still an incredibly LARGE portion of the world that has yet to invest. -If you're still in doubt, Zoom Out, all the way back to 2010, and Replay the daily change from 2010 thru Now. With every crash comes recovery and continued Growth!!
Long
by bam607