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Stop Loss hunting in dollar index and EURUSD ?The next days may be critical for the dollar index. If markets defend around 96.30 and aggressively break through 96.15, there may be a significant downward move on the dollar. Another target on the dollar index is 95.80, 95.50 and 95.20. It is worth paying attention to the fundamentals, in particular, the situation in Italy. If there are serious problems related to Italy, it is likely that the downward scenario on the dollar will not work.
TVC:DXYShort
by bjc9
EURUSD escalating tensions between the EU and ItalyEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1487 Key Resistance: 1.1487 - 1.1522 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 Key Support: 1.1460 - 1.1435 - 1.1412 - 1.1396 Day Trading Range: 1.1420 - 1.1535 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1506) & SMA 50 (1.1499) both are strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1487 with targets at 1.1512 & 1.1536 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1487 look for further downside with 1.1458 & 1.1434 as targets. Fundamental: Italian Risk Continue: “Italian Deputy PM Salvini yesterday met with far-right former French presidential candidate Marie Le Pen, where the two publicly agreed that ‘dancing-man’ Juncker is the “real enemy” of Europe: perhaps that’s why the guy was shuffling from side to side in public, to make himself a harder target for populists?” “With the Italian bond and stock market making its own negative judgement on the Italian desire not to have to embrace Teutonic hair-shirt fiscal policy in a febrile socio-economic environment, Salvini added “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs.” And there was also little sign of any retreat or surrender to the bond market or the European Commission: “We will not backtrack, we will not backtrack,” Salvini insisted, adding that “Speculators acting like Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.” The EURUSD closes yesterday on bearish note yesterday owning to high level of dovish pressure on common currency influenced by escalating tensions between the EU and Italy, over the budget approved a couple of weeks ago. European equities collapsed to multi-month lows on Monday, with banking-related equities leading the slump, as Italian government bond yields surged to over 4-year highs, with Italian Salvini pointing a finger on Brussels for the bonds’ sell-off and Deputy PM Di Maio claiming that anti-austerity views will grow stronger across the continent, meanwhile the pair hit a new 6-week low at 1.1459 during yesterday’s market hours. The EUR/USD is trading flat and steady in early Tuesday action just shy of the 1.15 handle as the pair holds close to near-term lows. Italy headlines remain a drag on the EUR, with Italian bonds continuing to under perform against their major benchmark peers as political confidence crumbles, and the downside pull of the Italian government’s budget concerns is poorly timed, with broader markets already suffering a lack of confidence at the hands of rising US Treasury bond yields and increasing discomfort surrounding global trade, and this week could see the EUR/USD take a further haircut. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO under pressure from higher interest rateEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1516 (CMP 1.1499) Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 - 1.1580 - 1.1610 Key Support: 1.1491 - 1.1476 - 1.1448 - 1.1428 - 1.1410 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1510) & SMA 100 (1.1522) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1500 with targets at 1.1530 & 1.1560 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1500 look for further downside with 1.1476 & 1.1450 as targets. Fundamental: EURUSD bulls have managed to hold support, next, they are likely to start thinking of increasing the buying and trying to push the euro higher. It may not be an easy task against the dollar which has been getting a lot of support from the Fed, of late. We have seen the dollar being well supported as the Fed has been hiking rates as per schedule and as per expectations of the market which has only increased its status as being one of the most stable currencies around, to invest in during times of crisis. This has been the case with the dollar for long but that feeling has only increased in recent times. The dollar has been further supported by the talk from the Fed Chief Powell who has made it clear that the rate hike cycle is not close to its end as yet and this has only further boosted the dollar. Under these circumstances, it is to the credit of the euro bulls that they have managed to hold the support region around 1.15 but the move higher is only going to get more and more difficult in the days ahead. The economic news on the calendar is pretty much limited as of today and hence we can expect the euro to consolidate and range for most of the day. Chinese equities took a big hit after traders returned from a week-long holiday. Efforts by the People’s Bank of China to free more than $100 billion in liquidity through cutting the reserve requirement ratio were not enough to offset the fear of slowing growth, the escalated trade dispute, and the rise in U.S. interest rates. The CSI 300 fell 3.6% late morning led by the technology sector as investors had the chance to respond to reports claiming that Chinese intelligence agents planted microchips to hack big tech firms and U.S. government agencies. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO looking ahead US NFP TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1545 - 1.1568 - 1.1590 Key Support: 1.1490 - 1.1455 - 1.1532 - 1.1512 Day Trading Range: 1.1440 - 1.1560 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend. Moving Average: SMA 50(1.1511) & SMA 100(1.1539) strong resistance for pair today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1490 with targets at 1.1522 & 1.1548 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1490 look for further downside with 1.1450 & 1.1422 as targets. Fundamental: Concerns on Italian politics eased somewhat on Thursday and allowed spot to rebound from recent lows in the 1.1460 region. In addition, news citing the ECB was discussing its reinvestment policy also lent some support to the single currency. However, the bull run met strong resistance in the 1.1540/45 band, forcing the pair to recede to the current 1.1500 zone. In the meantime, spot is expected to remain under pressure amidst rising US yields while further range bound should be seen ahead of the release of US Non-farm Payrolls for the month of September. Earlier in the session, German Factory Orders expanded 2.0% MoM during August, surpassing estimates. In addition, Producer Prices rose more than expected 0.3% inter-month during the same period and 3.1% on a yearly basis. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Battle for the bulls and the bears for control of EURUSD EURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1538 (CMP 1.1573) Key Support: 1.1555 - 1.1532 - 1.1510 - 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1588 - 1.1612 - 1.1628 - 1.1645 Day Trading Range: 1.1628 - 1.1490 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1566) strong support & SMA 100 (1.1603) strong resistance for the day. RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence for the day. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1538 with targets at 1.1610 & 1.1645 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1538 look for further downside with 1.1510 & 1.1488 as targets. Fundamental: After bottoming out in the boundaries of the 1.15000 neighborhood in the first half of the week, the pair seems to have recovered some attention and is now up around a cent since those lows. However, Italian politics remains a hot topic for the time being, with the budget deficit still in centre stage. It is worth mentioning that the official budget submission to the EU will be on October 15. In addition, some renewed weakness around the greenback is also bolstering the corrective up move in the pair. Looking ahead, final September Services PMIs in Euroland is due next seconded by EMU’s Retail Sales. Across the pond, the labour market will come to the fore in light of the release of the ADP report, while the key ISM Non-manufacturing will also grab attention. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has called a budget meeting with his ministers to go over Italy's budget discussions further, as holiday-impinged markets tread on the volatile side on reaction to Euro-centric headlines. Key highlights Conte will be meeting with select members of his cabinet as they look for more ways to squeeze some wiggle room out of the European nation's books, with headlines on Tuesday sending the EUR lower after Italy decided to stick to their guns and plan for a 2.4% budget deficit in fiscal year 2019, bringing Italy's budget deficit beyond the 2% target set out under EU guidelines. Conte and his posse have attempted to smooth over frictions in markets regarding Italy's budget, promising to reduce Italy's deficit to 2.2% in fiscal year 2020 and dropping it further to the 2.0% barrier by FY 2021, but these proposals lie several years down the road, and traders will be keeping a close eye on the Italian bond yields this week, bearing in mind that the previous government was targeting a deficit of just 0.6% in 2019. The region around 1.15 is likely to be the key and this would be the region of battle for the bulls and the bears for control of this pair and there is likely to be a lot of stops below this. Any break below this region would trigger these stops and would accelerate the move lower and then the bears would be in control. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Today EURUSD eye on Fed Chair Powell SpeaksEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1594 Key Resistance: 1.1568 - 1.1594 - 1.1622 - 1.1645 Key Support: 1.1522 - 1.1498 - 1.1465 - 1.1445 Day Trading Range: 1.1622 - 1.1498 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1593) & SMA 200 (1.1653) strong resistance for EURUSD today. RSI: The indicator moving oversold level below 30, soon it will go up side Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short @ 1.1594 with targets @ 1.1535 & 1.1512 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1594 look for further upside with 1.1622 & 1.1658 as targets. Fundamental: The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT. There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate. The Euro is inching lower against the U.S. Dollar early Tuesday after plunging 0.22% on Monday. Pressing the single currency were renewed concerns about Italy’s budget deficit. According to reports, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio accused European Union officials of deliberately upsetting financial markets with negative comments about Italy’s budget plans. He was essentially firing a shot at European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, who earlier in the session said that Rome’s plans were “obviously” deviating from EU rules on fiscal discipline. The markets opened on Monday to the news that the United States, Mexico and Canada managed to agree on a new deal. The new trade deal replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is now called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal. The deal is said to give greater access to the U.S to Canadian dairy markets in return for allowing extra imports of Canadian cars. Economic data from the U.S. was slightly. Construction spending was seen rising less than expected August. Official data showed that spending on construction rose just 0.1% in August on a month over month basis. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI showed the index easing to 59.8 in August compared to 61.3 in July. The data also missed estimates of 60.1. However, the USD managed to close on a high note, maintaining the gains from last Friday. The day ahead will be marked by the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rate which stands at 1.50%. The European trading session is relatively quiet. Spain will be releasing its unemployment change followed by the construction PMI data from the UK. The median estimates put the activity in the construction sector to ease slightly to 52.8 from 52.9. Later in the evening, the NY trading session will see the Fed chair, Jerome Powell speaking. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area againEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1760 Key Resistance: 1.1765 - 1.1790 - 1.1810 - 1.1845 Key Support: 1.1735 - 1.1720 - 1.1698 - 1.1665 Day Trading Range: 1.1700 - 1.1790 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator shows Bart pattern, moving around 55 level, still in bullish zone above 50. Moving Average: SMA 20 (1.1730) strong support, SMA 10(1.1761) strong resistance & SMA 50(1.1686) strong support for pair. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1760 with targets at 1.1730 & 1.1710 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1760 look for further upside with 1.1775 & 1.1800 as targets. Fundamental: Intensifying Trade Dispute between China & US Dulls Investors Risk Appetite. With positive economic climate surrounding US markets, US FED is set to stay on course for scheduled in rate hikes in near future and this will greatly support US Greenback in positive manner in global markets. With the Fed still keen to continue the process of moving rates back towards ‘neutral’, it remains too early in our view for the FX market to price the Fed going on hold. Meanwhile, The common currency may also come under pressure if the European and US equities respond negatively to a decision by China to scrap trade talks with the US. In response to US tariff on Chinese goods worth $200b coming into effect today, Chinese govt has retaliated by adding 60 billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list and cancelling mid-level trade talks with the United States, as well as a proposed visit to Washington by vice premier Liu He originally scheduled for this week as per reports from the Wall Street Journal with no dates set for further talks. Continued Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again in near future. The intensifying dispute between the world’s two biggest economies has spooked financial markets worried about the fallout on global growth there by inspiring a risk averse investor sentiment as trading session began for the week. When looking from technical perspective in daily chart, the indicators eased from near overbought levels, holding well into positive territory, rather than reflecting the latest slide supporting a downward extension ahead. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD supported by ECB chief economist Peter PraetEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1735 Day Trading Range: 1.1735 - 1.1860 Key Support: 1.1768 - 1.1738 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 Key Resistance: 1.1815 - 1.1834 - 1.1858 - 1.1888 Technical Indicators: RSI The RSI moving 70 level & its having more space for overbought condition. MACD: MacD having Bullish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 20 (1.1709) & SMA 55 (1.1661) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1735 with targets at 1.1810 & 1.1835 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1735 look for further downside with 1.1718 & 1.1688 as targets. Fundamental: The easing trade tensions and the resulting broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the EUR/USD pair to a 2.5-month high of 1.1785 yesterday. The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the mentioned high during NA market hours yesterday but has regained ground now after the retracement held above the former resistance in the 1.1730 region, where the pair stalled its advance several times these last days, and where it set its high in August. The options market data indicate the investors are expecting the common currency to extend gains further and hence are likely unwinding bearish bets which support the pair’s bullish momentum and also indicate consolidation above 1.17 handle. Although the weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing data from the U.S. came in better than analysts’ estimates, the index failed to make a meaningful recovery. EURO bulls were further supported by comments from ECB chief economist Peter Praet in New York where he said that the euro area economy was expanding at a rate above its potential and added that he was confident about the inflation rate converging with the bank’s target. Looking ahead, the EUR could raise above 1.18 if the preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers, scheduled for release today, beat estimates and the risk assets remain well bid. When looking from technical perspective, the EUR/USD could revisit former resistance-turned-support level of 1.1750 before building on a bullish close above 1.17, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD looking Range tarding Breakout TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1685 Day Trading Range: 1.1630 - 1.1740 Key Resistance: 1.1698 - 1.1722 - 1.1735 - 1.1748 Key Support: 1.1685 - 1.1668 - 1.1645 - 1.1610 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI facing toward upside moving above 50 level. Moving Average: SMA200 (1.1633) & SMA100 (1.1670) strong support for EURUSD. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1685 with targets at 1.1645 & 1.1628 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1685 look for further upside with 1.1715 & 1.1735 as targets. Fundamental: The pair regained some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit remained well below the 1.1700 handle as investors continue to assess the latest escalation of US-China trade tensions. There isn’t any market-moving economic data due for release from the Euro-zone, while the US economic docket offers housing market data – building permits and housing starts. The range bound price action is expected to continue in near future as the spread between the US and German bond yields for 10-year bonds currently stands at 257 basis points – the highest level since Aug. 8. The daily chart of the EUR/USD is flashing a bullish reversal pattern, but a breakout may remain elusive, as the bond yield differentials are rising in the EUR-negative manner. Today In US Session Mr Draghi speech more important for pair. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Focus on Draghi Speech & Trade WarEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1665 - 1.1790 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1745 - 1.1768 - 1.1788 Key Support: 1.1688 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1612 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicators shows upside bias in a day. MACD: MacD having bullish trend. Moving Avg: SMA55 (1.1626) & SMA200 (1.1568) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Idea: Pivot: 1.1665 Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1755 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1614 as targets. Fundamental: A bigger rally above 1.17 could be on the cards if ECB's Draghi plays down risks arising out of trade wars and the stock markets pick up a strong bid. On the economic data front, the final Euro-zone CPI confirmed the flash readout of 2.0% y/y in August and remained supportive of the positive tone surrounding the shared currency. The US President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and warned to pursue tariffs on $267 billion of additional imports if China takes retaliatory action. As of writing this article, the pair is trading at 1.1688 up 0.04% on the day. Today’s key focus would be on the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled speech, where any relevant comments related to monetary policy should influence the common currency and provide some meaningful trading opportunities. Apart from this, the economic docket lacks any major market moving releases and hence, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as a key driver of the pair’s momentum through Tuesday’s trading session. Although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The recovery is likely associated with conciliatory comments from China's commerce minister. More importantly, the risk assets seem to have taken heart from the fact that the Trump administration imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports worth $200 billion as opposed to expectations of 25 percent levy. This is evident from the recovery in the JPY crosses. For instance, the EUR/JPY pair witnessed a 70 pip recovery from session lows in Asia and could extend gains further if the global stock markets pick up a strong bid, although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The EUR/USD may also find acceptance above 1.17 if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi downplays the trade tensions and reiterates that the QE program will likely end in December. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
2
European Session EURUSD Boost From ECB UpdateEURUSD Technical Analysis Day Trading Range: 1.1635 - 1.1755 Pivot: 1.1665 Key Support: 1.1690 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1600 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1735 - 1.1752 - 1.1775 Technical Indicators: MACD: MacD is having Strong Bullish volume. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1624) & SMA200 (1.1570) Strong Support for EURUSD. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1718 & 1.1735 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1605 as targets. Fundamental: The EUR/USD has found acceptance above the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 25. The common currency picked up a strong bid yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) sounded optimistic about prospects for inflation, bolstering the already bullish technical setup. Today’s data is US meets expectation the possibility for USD to gain upper hand against EURO before market closes on Friday is very low as it will scale down investors’ expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, an above-forecast reading would reinforce expectations that domestic demand would cushion the US economy from external shocks and could put a bid under the USD. Risk sentiment in market has died down a bit as President Trump tweeted that he felt no pressure to do a trade deal with China, causing some unwind of the positive risk sentiment despite his government reaching out to China for trade related talks. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
6
European Session EURUSD, Still in RangeEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1570 - 1.1730. Pivot: 1.1615 Key Resistance: 1.1655 - 1.1682 - 1.1732 Key Support: 1.1605 - 1.1565 - 1.1520 Technical Trade Idea Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1615 with targets at 1.1660 & 1.1675 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1615 look for further downside with 1.1595 & 1.1570 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: Indicator shows upside momentum. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1560) & SMA200 (1.1583), strong support for today. Fundamentals: Falling Spread Between German and Italian Bonds Boost EURO in Broad Market Besides the ongoing Italian budget noise, it’s pretty quiet going in terms of local drivers for the EUR and Investors seem to have put off chasing any ECB policy normalization story. However, there is little out there that supports the case for long euro, albeit there have been some less negative wires on the political front with respect to Italy and Brexit updates and there have not been any EM nor fresh trade headlines to sink the dollar’s peers so far this week. US Greenback lost some ground on recovering momentum in EURO & GBP however skittish emerging market currencies helped limit the greenback’s retreat. The dollar may have pulled back from two-week highs but it is expected to stay well supported in the longer term, continuing to garner safe haven bids in the wake of weakness in emerging market currencies. On release front, today’s European calendar remains silent however macro data across key European markets were dovish yesterday while US Trade balance was well in line with expectations. Today’s market hours will see release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventory and ADP Non-Farm employment change data and a hawkish outcome in same could help USD gain upper hand against the shared currency. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
NANO Ascending TriangleHourly NANO/BTC chart clearly reflects an ascending triangle which is generally a bullish pattern in TA. Resistance appears to be around 0.0003170. Traders may consider entering long positions if 0.0003170 resistance is broken. RSI is nearing overbought area, before reaching that critical resistance point I would expect price to retest 0.0002800 levels. Look for a significant increase in volume as a confirmation of a breakout, absence of volume boost will most likely indicate false breakout. If a breakout occurs, 0.0003170 will most likely become our support. If a false breakout takes place, price will move significantly lower triggering price reversal and downtrend.
NLong
by bxcimu
Long EURUSD from the strong support / resistance zoneEURUSD price is in the range that has acted as strong resistance / support zone since 2015. I expect this zone to be respected. I expect EUR to recover 100pips+ from this region and then continue sell down. I am still bearish on EUR due to crisis in Turkey. Italy politics is also not giving any reason to celebrate. In addition I see that volume is reducing during bearish candles while volumes are really high for green candles. Another reason for us to go long.
by thedealbuddy
Buy the Breakout EUR/USD Bullish ExpectationHi guys, Here some analysis on the EUR/USD pair: After some macro indicator such as a stronger non farm payroll in USA which showed higher wages, the DOLLAR got stronger and we saw a correction on this pair. Technically, the price has rallied since a long time and this might be just a natural correction. Currently, the trend is still up and I expect the price to go up around 1.22 where there will be some resistance and perhaps a consolidation and eventually a breakout. Here is the trend set up: - A nice consolidation has been formed + a DB - We can see a front running indicator,higher low supported by a big green engulfing candle - The price is lying on the upwards trend channel - Put a BUY LIMIT on the breakout of the consolidation, around 5 pips. - Risk reward around 1:1.8 targeting the major DAILY resistance, around 1.21-22 If you liked my analysis feel free to leave a comment or a like. Cheers, Sebastiano
Long
by Sebatrader1
1