Get started

Longhodl

Keep Your Eyes on the Volume Behind the MovementThe Key to Success has Been Underneath Your Nose the Entire Time The key detail that every new trader seems to miss is that volume ultimately controls price movements because the presence of adequate volume validates the price movement. If a price movement fails to be validated by adequate volume, then there is going to be an equal an opposite reaction. There exists a variable that satisfies both quantitative and fundamental analysts. That is the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and it is complemented by the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA). When you do not consider the weight of volume in price movements, you are at the mercy of manipulative, high volume whales that seek to sink Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) during times of low volume in the interest of accumulation of the asset. VWAPs can be treated as the "true" price of an asset on any given resolution, but become less sensitive to change as you zoom out. These ever-shifting values can be treated as floors, in bullish times, and ceilings, during a bear market. You can always expect a "bounce" off of the VWAP in the opposite direction at least once as price attempts to cross over it. These resistance lines are useful to every audience, the soon-to-be long holders who would like to plan a decent entry, the short sellers trying to make a quick buck, and the swing traders who like to make money regardless of who controls the market. One should always keep in mind that price never strays too far from the VWAP before attempting to violently correct itself in the other direction. There is a measure of movement around the VWAP, which we'll call volatility, and it masks the true price of the asset and its direction. By following the VWAP, you can see accurately whether the asset is going high or low. I'm using these customized bands to look for long entries (in the green or below) and short entries (in the red or above) to make short term profits to be accumulated in my spot balances. Ultimately, by building your position you can ensure a long-term profit but it doesn't mean too much if one simply never takes profit. Longs can be slept on. Shorts must be monitored. Set a budget, craft a plan, and stick to it. Remember to remove your principal investment at some point to reduce your risk. Happy Hunting! - Patch Hemlock
by Hemlocked
1
BTCUSD Lower time-frame "The Most Dangerous Short" ex.2 (Jan 4)part 1 -> www.tradingview.com market making? no, market emulating. remember, the market only exists insofar as its constituents allow the farce. a fun hobby for some, job for others. yet these are some of the biggest players who absolutely do not care about the underline or the individual traders; it is noise, and soundproofed noise. not your IPO, or whales, or anything else like that; the truly most insane and dangerous people: arbitrage agents short at ur own risk. don't over leverage shorts. They want you to short , and are ready to eat any volume you offer them. Leveraging shorts automatically throws free btc at them. I have no exceptions right now no matter how high we go . Any shorts would be done on a 3 pip stop slot at most and must be exited ASAP if a reversal does that arbitrage, yes, then it can be valid. But this is not anything analyzable without charging ones expectations and assumptions; that doesn't become 'doing it wrong', but rather 'changing needs to suit current conditions up to and including abandoning previously accurate measurements for this topic is totally fine... if you are willing to be consistent and skip formfitting in the process of changing it. TA is so outside of the box that it's entirely inside the box, now. It's predictably inaccurate, overused, and overtaught. The system is not TA, but rather 'knowing when to use TA to get an answer you already expect'. when used as a psychological assumption in a less than zero sum game, it leads to self-rekting while following all the correct cues. I saw a couple people change their mind as soon as trump signalled it wasn't too socialist to ask for $2000. I don't see patterns until I set my charts. my fibs are set up to prefer the opposite side to the traditional fib so it more correctly places a target I would want. It ends up being highly useful when I also base my actions around numbers; a high number of active short positions = 'incredibly dangerous when this theory is applied unilaterally without 'oh but it's 30k, oh its 35k time to dump, emas say dump'', etc. tl;dr: dont short hodlers are 99.98% in profit, ATH buyers will be in profit within a year maximum, easily sooner do not short. do not short or emotionally choose a tactic out of spite or revenge. its pointless and meaningless and doesn't teach anyone anything; it just frustrates you more. DO NOT SHORT. it was that easy. that's all u had to do. I longed from buy point to 30k, got off, expected retest, had to close position and then rebuy in. missed out on the most vertical of the climb. kept my long on permanently after that and :sip: in chat the potential reward is NOT worth the risk. No, I don't care, stop shorting. Don't care if it's due or if it's 'obvious'. What you don't see in the chart are all the failed such drops that turned into long wicks but thick bodies (wink). I sat in that chatroom for just about the extent of every day, since I was not really gonna do any analysis solo. but wanted to pay attention to what was happening in price action. Every day, all hours, minus naps, it was the same reaction and the same disappointment. Staying through that whole mess was incredibly enlightening as to diving further action. in essence, this is merely fake difficulty . once you understand this 'no shorting, no matter how compelling; prefer to stay idle than short or long if completely uncertain, but longing from below climb is more than enough space to leave it on now" is the entire gameplay loop is shown in just that cycle. he isn't even the real villain here, and this is a meta-level conflict structure, not a price action one. will try to publish more direct psychology that is better formatted and less schizophrenic; I believe there are multiple concepts that might be valuable introduced into the ecosystem if desired or found useful, though not absolutely so. My question: How long until reason is clearly the unreasonable line of thinking? good luck. good luck hodlers. the wrist strength shows. keep up the curls.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by foxymethoxy