Longposition
PayPal: Turbulent Journey, Promising FutureI am a big supporter of PayPal but I believe its share value will get worse before it gets better. According to its Q2 2023 results, the online payment company experienced a deterioration in its liquidity with a cash ratio difference (cash/total current liabilities) of -0.04 when compared to its Q2 2022 results. The Q3 2023 Earnings Call taking place on Wednesday (1 November 2023) should set the tone for what to expect in the coming months, a steeper drop in share price or a much desired recovery.
PayPal has had a rocky year with the retirement of its veteran CEO, Dan Schulman, who was officially succeeded by Alex Chriss last month. Because Schulman's departure was planned and not sudden, the change in leadership is not a concern for me. The online payment giant also recently launched its own stablecoin showing its willingness and capability to evolve with the times. All-in-all, I believe PayPal's shares have been mostly rocked by factors outside of its direct control (rising treasury yields, pandemic lockdowns lifting, recession fears, etc) so I am anticipating the Q4 2023 to be a pivotal moment as I believe that's where we will see how Chriss has managed the company.
Despite the expected turbulence I am going to load up on LEAPS calls as I believe this company is extremely undervalued and is due for a strong recovery once the current macroeconomic disturbances subside. If the price continues to slip, I can see us hitting a support around $40 which will be the lowest the stock has been since February 2017. While this would be difficult to stomach, it offers an exceptional purchasing opportunity. A potential near-future recovery to the $58.50 level is also possible; $65 would be the next stop if the $58.50 ceiling is surpassed.
Speculative foresight: noting Elon Musk's prior history with PayPal and his long-term desires for operating an online bank (a desire he has expressed exercising with the newly acquired Twitter, now X, platform), I believe we can expect an attempted merger or acquisition from Musk once he has extinguished the current fires at Tesla and X. In my opinion, an attempt to takeover PayPal would attract high volatility which could launch PayPal's shares to prior highs. This is all speculation of course and probably will not occur for several years, if at all.
NASDAQ:PYPL
Amazon Stock Pops More Than 5%The e-commerce giant's Q4 revenue guidance also beat Wall Street's expectation.
Shares of Amazon (AMZN 7.49%) jumped 5.4% in Thursday's volatile after-hours trading session, following the e-commerce and cloud computing leader's release of its third-quarter 2023 report.
The gain is attributable to the quarter's revenue and earnings both sprinting by Wall Street's estimates, with the bottom-line beat a particularly big one. Investors were also likely pleased that revenue guidance for the fourth quarter -- the particularly important holiday quarter -- exceeded the analyst expectation.
1. Revenue grew 13%
Amazon's net quarterly sales grew 13% year over year to $143.1 billion, easily surpassing the $133.4 billion Wall Street had expected. That result also edged by the company's guidance range of $138 billion to $143 billion. Excluding the favorable effect from foreign-currency exchange, revenue increased 11% from the year-ago period.
Year-over-year revenue growth at AWS continued to slow on a sequential-quarter basis. In the prior three quarters, the cloud computing unit's year-over-year revenue grew 12% (Q2 2023), 16% (Q1 2023), and 20% (Q4 2022). This slowdown is industrywide, as many businesses are being cautious with their spending due to the uncertain macro environment. On the earnings call, management expressed optimism that the surging adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) will be a big tailwind for its AWS business.
That said, AWS's profitability increased significantly (as discussed in the next section) more than its revenue, and profitability growth, arguably, is more important than revenue growth.
Moreover, Amazon's e-commerce business's revenue growth outperformed Wall Street's expectations, which more than compensated for AWS's revenue falling just a tad short of the Street's estimate ($23.06 billion vs $23.13 billion). This dynamic underscores the benefit of diversification.
2. Operating income soared 348%
The quarter's operating income more than quadrupled from the year-ago period to $11.2 billion. This result walloped Amazon's guidance range for operating income between $5.5 billion and $8.5 billion.
AWS's operating income growth was robust on both a year-over-year and a sequential basis. As noted in the chart, it jumped 30% year over year, and it also increased 30% from the prior quarter (Q2 2023).
In the prior quarter, AWS's operating income edged down 5% year over year to $5.4 billion.
3. Earnings per share surged 236%
In Q3, net income was $9.9 billion, or $0.94 per share, up 236% year over year. This result crushed the earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28 that Wall Street had expected.
The quarter's net income includes a pre-tax valuation gain of $1.2 billion included in nonoperating expense from Amazon's common stock investment in electric vehicle maker Rivian Automotive, which went public in November 2021. The year-ago quarter's net income had included a pre-tax valuation gain of $1.1 billion from the Rivian stock.
4. Operating cash flow rose 81% for the trailing year
Operating cash flow jumped 81% to $71.7 billion for the trailing-12-month period. Free cash flow (FCF) was $21.4 billion for this period, compared with negative $19.7 billion in the year-ago period.
The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $50.1 billion, and long-term debt of $61.1 billion.
Investors should mainly focus on Amazon's operating cash flow, rather than its FCF. FCF can jump around a lot quarter to quarter based on how much money the company is investing in growth initiatives.
5. Revenue is expected to grow 7% to 12% in the fourth quarter
For Q4, management guided for net sales in the range of $160 billion to $167 billion, which would amount to growth of 7% to 12% year over year. This guidance includes an expected favorable impact of 40 basis points (0.4 percentage points) from foreign exchange rates.
Going into the Q3 report, Wall Street had been modeling for Q4 revenue of $157.2 billion, so Amazon's top-line guidance was higher than what analysts had been expecting.
Amazon, which doesn't provide earnings guidance, also said that it expects Q4 operating income will be between $7.0 billion and $11.0 billion, compared with $2.7 billion in the prior-year period.
A good overall quarter
Amazon turned in a strong quarter, especially considering the uncertain macro environment.
With its leading positions in two massive growth markets -- e-commerce and cloud computing -- Amazon still has a long runway for growth.
[NASDAQ] Cup & Handle - Long setupNASDAQ is forming a nice Cup & Handle pattern on the daily aiming to find support around the 200d EMA and enough buyers to push the price to ATH.
A similar pattern was seen in the 2009 bottoming process, successfully defending the 200d EMA and resuming the secular bull market.
The same goes for the 2008 failure to hold the 200d EMA giving us a clear invalidation point for our setup
If NASDAQ looses the 200d EMA most likely the bear market will resume
💡XAUUSD: Ability to recover after a slight decline💡At the end of yesterday's trading session, the price of gold experienced a slight decrease, putting an end to the impressive surge that took it close to $2,000 per ounce in the previous week, while the ongoing tensions in the Middle East show no signs of abating.
💡According to David Meger, the Director of Metal Trading at High Ridge Futures, the demand for safe-haven assets may continue to push gold prices higher after a brief period of decline. He expressed the belief that political instability and unrest in the Middle East will likely keep driving gold prices upwards.
💡 Meger also added, "If inflation data exceeds expectations, it could raise concerns about interest rate hikes, which may subsequently lead to an increase in the demand for safe-haven assets."
Bitcoin in sensitive location!!!!Any break under 24800 with 12 days correction will lead BTC to 18000 and maybe to new lows! while any break over 26450 with 2-3 days correction will lead BTC to break 32000 and to 48000. I will keep you updated regarding any change in analysis shape of the wave !
follow for more and stay tuned
HAL looking very weakNSE:HAL HAL has exhibited signs of a breakdown, with the stock breaking below key levels of support and resistance. The daily and weekly charts have both witnessed the breach of a downward trendline. There are two potential price levels to target:
1. The stock may experience a decline from its current level of 1737.
2. If the downward momentum continues, the stock could potentially reach levels between 1585 and 1520.
This statement offers a clearer and more concise description of the stock's current situation and potential price movement.
Please be aware that the stock market can be highly volatile, and stock prices can fluctuate rapidly. It's essential to do your own research or consult a financial advisor to make informed investment decisions. Always consider factors like market conditions, company fundamentals, and recent news when setting your trading strategy.
Also, keep in mind that the stock market involves risks, and there's no guarantee that HAL stock will reach your target price or avoid your stop-loss level. Make sure you are comfortable with the risks involved and never invest money you can't afford to lose.
Bitcoin technical analysis _ 2023-10-18Short position
After breaking the newly formed bottom box and the midline of the ascending channel, and also after breaking the important support at the price of 27,930
Entry 27860
The loss limit is 28,190
Risk Free 27525
(moving the stop to the entry point after breaking 27463)
Saving profit 27200
(Moving stop to risk to reward 1 if it reaches 27150)
Profit limit 26930
Why the Market Dipped But (PNNT) Gained TodayIn the latest trading session, PennantPark (PNNT) closed at $6.42, marking a +0.47% move from the previous day. The stock outperformed the S&P 500, which registered a daily loss of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.12%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, lost 1.23%.
The business development company's shares have seen a decrease of 4.34% over the last month, not keeping up with the Finance sector's loss of 3.92% and the S&P 500's loss of 2.4%.
Market participants will be closely following the financial results of PennantPark in its upcoming release. The company is predicted to post an EPS of $0.22, indicating a 57.14% growth compared to the equivalent quarter last year. Alongside, our most recent consensus estimate is anticipating revenue of $33.45 million, indicating a 15.61% upward movement from the same quarter last year.
Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. Investors can capitalize on this by using the Zacks Rank. This model considers these estimate changes and provides a simple, actionable rating system.
The Zacks Rank system, ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), possesses a remarkable history of outdoing, externally audited, with #1 stocks returning an average annual gain of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remained stagnant within the past month. PennantPark is currently a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
In terms of valuation, PennantPark is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.21. This valuation marks a premium compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 7.19.
VINO Stock (Gaucho Group Holdings NASDAQ)Gaucho Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VINO), a company that includes a growing collection of e-commerce platforms with a concentration on fine wines, luxury real estate, and leather goods and accessories (the "Company" or "Gaucho Holdings"), announced today its journey towards organic cultivation for select sections of its renowned Pinot Noir and Cabernet Sauvignon vineyards. Anticipated to unfold over 24 to 36 months, this shift represents a pivotal move in the Company's commitment to sustainability and eco-friendly methods. By including premium organic products from its expansive 4,138-acre residential vineyard estate, the Company aims to draw a broader global clientele to its real estate offerings, thereby enhancing stockholder value.
The decision to adopt organic cultivation reflects Gaucho Holdings' pursuit of excellence and innovation. By transitioning to organic vineyard practices for some of its wines, the Company believes it stands to gain several key advantages: Recognizing the increasing demand for organic wines among health-conscious and environmentally aware consumers, the move can expand the company's market reach to this growing demographic.
This transition to organic practices is a strategic step in Gaucho Holdings' long-term vision for growth. In the near future, the company plans further develop the organic garden supporting Algodon Wine Estates' Argentine farm-to-table restaurant, Chez Gaston. Alongside this, the estate is undertaking infrastructure enhancements, such as the implementation of new water wells, with the aim of bolstering water self-reliance. These endeavors are part of a broader initiative to adopt sustainable practices, all with an eye towards enhancing stockholder value.
"Algodon Wine Estates has always taken pride in its eco-friendly approach to winemaking. This strategic shift towards organic cultivation underscores our dedication to offering exceptional products while staying attuned to market trends and the evolving preferences of our valued consumers," said Scott Mathis, Founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gaucho Group Holdings, Inc. "Argentina, often overlooked in the global investment landscape, is a land brimming with untapped potential. Our contrarian vision recognizes the opportunities this vibrant nation presents. Gaucho Holdings stands out as one of the few US companies diving deep into Argentina's offerings. We're not just here for the moment; we have a slew of initiatives lined up, each designed to further enhance value for our stockholders. Argentina's great potential, combined with our vision, sets the stage for what we believe can be a very exciting trajectory."
Gaucho Holdings invites its stockholders and wine enthusiasts worldwide to stay tuned for more updates on this exciting journey towards organic certification and the continued evolution of its prestigious wine portfolio.
NMDC bullish with volume"NMDC Stock Trade Strategy: Buying at 155 with 150 as a Support Level, Setting Stop-Loss at 140, and Aiming for 217 - Leveraging Weekly and Monthly Breakouts Since 2012"
1) Stop-Loss: This is the price at which you are willing to sell the stock to limit your losses. In your case, you've set a stop-loss at 140. If the stock price falls to 140, the system will automatically sell the stock to prevent further losses.
2) Target Price: This is the price at which you plan to sell your stock to realize a profit. In your case, you've set a target price of 217. If the stock reaches 217, you plan to sell to lock in your gains.
Please be aware that the stock market can be highly volatile, and stock prices can fluctuate rapidly. It's essential to do your own research or consult a financial advisor to make informed investment decisions. Always consider factors like market conditions, company fundamentals, and recent news when setting your trading strategy.
Also, keep in mind that the stock market involves risks, and there's no guarantee that NMDC's stock will reach your target price or avoid your stop-loss level. Make sure you are comfortable with the risks involved and never invest money you can't afford to lose.
#JPY upside potentialHi, dear traders and colleagues,
Let's take a look at the JPY basket and analyze its potential implications in relation to other currencies.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been weakening for a considerable period due to the policies implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). However, given that we are now at the end of the hiking cycle in other central banks, it is reasonable to assume that the interest rate differential between JPY and other currencies will start to decrease. This shift could potentially lead to the JPY gaining strength.
To support this hypothesis, we can examine the chart, where the price recently broke above a long-standing bearish channel with an impulsive move. This breakout suggests that there might be further bullish momentum in store.
Another noteworthy factor that adds confidence to the authenticity of this upside breakout, unlike the previous false breakout marked within the box, is the current price action. During the previous false breakout, the price formed a V-top chart pattern, resulting in a bullish impulsive move followed by a bearish impulsive move. This indicated that the breakout was driven by news events and was not sustainable. However, in the current scenario, we see the price consolidating after the upside breakout and not immediately retracing back into the channel range. This gives us reason to believe that this breakout is more likely to be genuine and mature over time.
Now, in terms of trading, an upside move in the JPY basket implies that currencies paired against the JPY are likely to face challenges and experience downside movements. This includes currency pairs like EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, and so on.
To identify potential entry points, we are currently monitoring two key areas. The first area of interest is marked by the arrow line, which points to yesterday's low. We are keen to observe how the price reacts around this level. The second area to watch is the 4-hour timeframe supply area, which coincides with the upper line of our bearish channel. This area could serve as a potential retest point for the price.
Keep a close eye on these areas for potential trading opportunities, and remember to adapt your strategy as the market evolves.
Happy trading!
UNH's Prescription for Success: Exploring the Surge in UNH StockUNH NYSE Stock: Riding High on a Bullish Run
UnitedHealth Group's (UNH) stock on the NYSE is experiencing a remarkable bullish run today. The surge can be attributed to the company's impressive financial performance and its role in the healthcare sector's evolution. UNH's robust earnings, expanding healthcare services, and strategic acquisitions have garnered investor confidence. The growing demand for healthcare services, amplified by pandemic-driven awareness, fuels UNH's ascent. Technical indicators, including Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages, confirm the bullish sentiment. As healthcare remains a critical focus globally, UNH is well-positioned to continue its bullish stride, making it a standout in today's market.
"Chainlink's Decentralized Oracle Network**Chainlink's Bullish Surge Today: RSI, SMA, and EMA in Focus**
Chainlink (LINK) is making waves with a strong bullish trend today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for LINK indicates robust buying momentum, firmly above the 70 mark, signaling a potential for further gains. The Simple Moving Averages (SMA) reveal a golden cross, with the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA, a classic bullish signal. Furthermore, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) shows a consistent upward trajectory, emphasizing the sustained momentum. Chainlink's innovative decentralized oracle network, which plays a pivotal role in the DeFi ecosystem, coupled with strong technical indicators, positions LINK as a standout performer in the crypto market today.