... for a 1.34/contract debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 56% Max Loss: $134/contract Max Profit: $66/contract Break Even: 38.66 Notes: Adding a smidge of short vol product here ... .
... for a 1.40/contract debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $60/contract Max Loss: $140/contract Break Even: 39.60 Notes: Putting on a smidge of short volatility here in VXX on this pop ... .
... for a 2.23/contract debit. Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Break Even: 26.27 Notes: My standard Thursday or Friday weekly expiry play. You can probably still get a fill in the neighborhood of 2.25 (or .75 credit for a short call vert) if it doesn't move much come Friday open. Will look to take it off for >15% of what I put it on for ... .
... for a 2.25/contract debit. Metrics: Max Profit: $75/contract Max Loss: $225/contract ROC%: 33.3% (at max profit) Break Even: 28.25 Notes: I've been sticking these three-wides out there for fills at 2.25, but in any event don't want to pay any more than 2.30 (30% ROC). This one filled at 11 minutes after open, so I didn't have to fiddle. I'll rotate back...
... for a 2.24 debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 89% Max Profit: $76/contract Max Loss: $224/contract Break Even: 14.76 Metrics: Here's the live trade for the VXMT-guided, medium term volatility trade referenced in the post below. At the time of the trade, VXMT was at 14.46, which is approximately the price at which the April futures contract is trading...
Another mechanical short volatility trade put on in the weeklies in VXX (while I wait for UVXY to do "the splits"). The February 9th weekly should open tomorrow and with VXX trading slightly below the 28 handle, I'm going to look at filling some 28/31's in that expiry for a 2.25/contract debit. Given the fact that the February 16th 28/31's are trading around...
... for a 2.28/contract debit. Frankly, was somewhat surprised that this appeared to have a 2.27 mid at open, since 28 is right at the money, and the market doesn't usually accommodate that kind of fill unless the short put is deeper ... . I was going to wait for the February 9th's to open, but I have a "spot" within the nooks and crannies of my February 16th...
I had to scramble mightily to get these on at the 11 CST pop/VXST/VIX ratio of >1.15, first opening the 14/17 for a 2.25 debit and then the 15/18 for a 2.20 debit ... . The break even for the former is 14.75 with a max profit potential of $75/contract and a 15.80 break even for the latter with a max profit potential of $80/contract.
... for a 2.29 debit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 61% Max Profit: $71/contract Max Loss: $229/contract Break Even: 13.71 Notes: Putting on a little more UVXY long put vert in light of this little pop we had today (VXST/VIX ratio finished at .95). The January 12th weekly opens tomorrow, so may add another position there as well ... .
... for a 2.23 debit. Max Profit: $77/contract Max Loss: $223/contract Bread Even: 32.77 Notes: My set ups in UVXY in the January monthly were getting a bit crowded around the strikes I would use here, so putting a small position on in VXX instead with 45 days until expiration.
... for a 2.25/contract debit. Max Profit: .75 ($75)/contract Max Loss: 2.25 (225)/contract Break Even: 13.25 Notes: Basically a contango drift/beta slippage play, but playing the ball where it lies, rather than waiting for a pop ... . Going long put vert instead of my usual short call vert due to comparatively low VVIX.
You may have heard me say in the past that you should use high implied volatility strategies in high implied volatility environments and low volatility strategies in low volatility environments. A credit spread is generally considered a high volatility environment play, while a debit spread is considered a low volatility environment play. Consequently, since...
Going directional here -- a rarity for me ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 47% Max Profit: $114 Max Loss: $86 Break Even: 133.14 Notes: Here, I'm looking for IWM to weaken rolling into FOMC/rate hikes. However, if price breaks to the top side of the setup, I'll roll out for duration and credit by "flipping" the spread into a short put vertical ... .
I don't do many of these, but since price is in my "sell area" and implied volatility isn't good for a credit spread, I'm doing a debit spread ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 55% Max Profit: $221/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $179/contract Break Evens: 208.21 Notes: I'll look to take this off at 50% max profit ... .
Given the fact that /ES, SPY, SPX500 continue to conform to the downward sloping yellow channel, I'm looking to continue to short on meaningful retraces of price, ideally to the upper bound of the yellow channel, since I think this offers the best risk-reward here. I can do this one of several ways, for example, by entering a GTC order to short /ES, SPY, or...
When we had our first rate hike in umpteen million years in December, I had a play like this on for a GTC fill to fade any volatility spike we might have in response to that. Of course, it never came ... . But thanks in large part to Chinese markets, I've now got that spike and will fade it here if I get the chance. Here's the setup: VXX Feb 19th 16/17 long...
I virtually never short a VIX product. I am, after all, largely a premium seller and, as such, am already short volatility in the vast majority of my setups. So, by shorting a VIX product, I'd basically be "piling on" to what I already do. I also virtually never do debit spreads ... . However, with FOMC next week, I thought I would at least consider taking a...