AMZN: Short it here, antitrust law discussion might affect itI think it's a good time to revisit the idea of shorting bubbly large caps, in particular ones with a good fundamental backdrop, to both profit from the decline in them, if it comes to pass, and hedge our risk in other long positions we hold in our portfolio. I'm focusing on $AMZN here, which has the lowest risk from my perspective. For a great breadown on it, check out Tim West's post in related ideas. The weekly upside is exhausted and implies a slow period, either a correction or consolidation for a few more weeks still. The recent run up, on the back of dovish comments from Janet Yellen, give us ample opportunity here.
So, in general, I don't advocate shorting stocks, mostly because of sentiment, and the bullish signals and valuations of many companies, but other stocks do justify the concern, to name a few, $NFLX, $AMZN, $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $NVDA, $WYNN, $WST, $HD, $BBY, $MU...The recent talk of net neutrality, and now antitrust laws, might stifle some volatility in internet related stocks, and specially big behemoths like $AMZN.
As a counter argument to this, sentiment remains negative for the most part, which could imply further upside to be tapped soon, according to the AAII sentiment survey data: www.aaii.com
The government and the fed can pull the plug though, ultimately, and if $AMZN does trigger a reformulation of the antitrust laws, it is in for a heck of a drop.
In the long run, we will have losers, but it's always good to take a valid trade opportunity, as scary as it may seem, specially if it helps balance our portfolio risk, and help bring us down into reality again after being right in most things.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
