BTC margin long volume vs price on BitfinexAfter calling the recent drop from 12k to 7.9k , I got the sense that BTC hasn't bottomed yet despite many calling the bottom. So I started looking for other indicators and pieces of data that may corroborate this hunch.
Initially I started looking at the long (BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS) and short (BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS) positions on Bitfinex as a way to gauge when to exit my margin positions. However, as I went back over the data we had (which admittedly isn't a great deal as Bitfinex only started providing the data on the 20th of August 2017), I started to notice that we topped out at around 32k of BTC longs. This coincided with a couple of major selloffs, including the last drop from 12k, and the prior one from 20k.
Im not sure if this is a glass ceiling, or a hard cap, however it seems pretty clear to me that we are seeing divergence of BTC price vs number of long positions. ie. price is going down despite an increase in longs.
I feel this provides some evidence towards the idea that we will push considerably lower due to a "long squeeze".
I also mentioned a few days back in my prior post that if we close the week below the weekly 20EMA, we will head lower to the 50MA for support.
A few days back
Now
I believe we are going down to between ~6k (+/- 500).
