Detailed BTC analysis Hello everyone, I invite you to an overview of the long-term situation for BTC. We will check what the pre-halving situation looks like and what we can expect in the coming time.
At the beginning, we will turn on the indicator determining the dates of halvings and the color marking of the path along which the price is moving.
We will focus on the current cycle and the previous one, starting by marking the ATH for the price that was achieved in 2017, and then we will mark the ATH achieved in 2021 in the same way. It is worth emphasizing here that 525 days passed from the halving in 2016 to the price peak in 2017, while 546 days passed from the halving in 2020 to the price peak in 2021, which gives a very similar time frame.
Taking this into account, we will check how many days it took the price to reach the bottom after ATH in 2017, and here we can see that this period of declines lasted 364 days, which is very interesting that the period of declines from ATH in 2021 to reach the price bottom also lasted similarly - 376 days. Such behavior confirms high repeatability in subsequent cycles.
Next, we will go back to the previous cycle and check how many days before Halving in 2020, the pre-halving correction began. And as you can see, the price started correcting 91 days before the halving.
So let's go back to the current cycle and here we can also see that we are about 98 days before the halving starts. Looking at the repetitions that occur in cycles, we can expect a price recovery this time.
It is worth keeping in mind that corrections in the cycle are usually around 20 to 40%, while the one in the previous cycle resulted in a much greater decline caused by the panic that occurred due to the most famous disease, COVID.
Returning to the previous cycle, we will spread the Fib Retracement saitke from ATH to the bottom, thanks to which we will be able to see that the price has its peak before the halving at the level of approximately 0.618FIB. However, returning to the current cycle, we can see that the price is also approaching the previously mentioned level of 0.618FIB, which may also result in a price recovery.
Additionally, we can see that the price path is currently changing to a very orange color, which also coincided with a rebound in the previous cycle. In a situation where a correction of around 30% would begin, it would result in a price drop to around $30,000.
However, in order to take a closer look at the current situation, it is worth taking a closer look at the current cycle in which we start by determining the current upward trend line along which the price is climbing upwards using the yellow line.
Going further, let's take into account the entire movement from ATH to the low and unfold the fib retracement grid, which will again indicate the 0.618FIB point as a strong resistance, which in this situation is at around $48,900. Which indicates that we may still see an upward move, although the previous rally that occurred after the new year was quickly extinguished by the announcement of the postponement of the decision on the issuance of the Spot ETF for BTC. Only after a positive break above this resistance, the price will be able to move towards a very strong resistance zone from $57,707 to $69,581, where the previous price peak is located.
Next, we will check the support levels again by spreading the fib retracement grid, this time from the bottom to the current high. And here the first important support point is visible at the level of $34,667, while the next very strong support level is $27,205. However, here it is worth spreading the grid again, taking into account the recent upward movement, thanks to which we can determine a very strong support zone between the previously determined levels, from $33,151 to $29,597. This zone could result in a correction of approximately 30%.
Please now look at the RSI indicator because you can see a movement near the upper limit of the range, which may result in the price reaching the previously mentioned resistance, but it is worth taking into account a possible recovery.
Further, the STOCH indicator also shows that we have been moving above the upper limit of the range for a long time, which may also translate into a correction and healthy cooling of the market and indicators.
In such a scenario, we can assume the appearance of future price movements, taking into account the postponement of the decision on the ETF for BTC. The situation could change dramatically when the SEC issues its final decision on the ETF, as a positive decision could result in huge gains, but a rejection could also bring the price to very low levels.
