Good investing opportunity on the U.S. banking sector.The KBE ETF, which tracks an equal-weighted index of U.S. banking stocks, has been rising on a very steady 1M Channel Up since the 2008 financial crisis and has recently rebounded on the latest Higher Low (RSI = 50.776, MACD = 0.640, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This presents a good buy opportunity on banking stocks, which are expected to outperform the market in the coming years. Our long term target is 52.00 with 60.45 in extension.
Longterminvesting
Long Position on Aurora Cannabis INCThe news about the sector looks like it´s a new commodity to add to our watchlist of stocks, furthemore the company have to ways of growing the bussines. The medical and the recreative way, so they grow the capacity of production and the customers are growing worlwide.
In my opinion this company have a long travel and i want to follow very near, i just bought 500 stocks at 7.06, lets see where the company arrive, i will add another position if it touch the level of 4.5-5, and then wait until the next benefits on may.
Bitcoin: A long term perspective (UPDATED)*DISCLAIMER* - This post is just for fun. The scenario I am going to lay out in the following write up may or may not come to be true. If it does, I am not a financial guru. If it doesn't... I am, definitely not a financial guru. Layman's language will be used to address as wide an audience as possible, please to do not take offence.
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Hello all! I'm doing an updated, more in-depth analysis/tea-leaf prediction on the hows and whys of where or where not Bitcoin is headed over the next few years. I am going to attempt to explore all possibilities both bullish and bearish so please 'bear' with me, this is going to be a long post.
First things first, long term price projections are anyone's guess. There is really no way to predict with any slight degree of accuracy where the price will be on future date X. The only thing that is certain is that the price will be somewhere not expected by the majority and anyone who guesses correctly got lucky. There is no skill involved.
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Now all that is out of the way, lets examine the chart above.
There are three main dates I want you to take from this chart (+/- a few days because cannot pinpoint on weekly candles)
Nov 2012
July 2016
May 2020
From the first halving to the peak of the 2013 bull market it took 365 days.
From the second halving to the peak of the 2017 bull it took 518 days, this represents a 42 % increase in time (rounded up from 41.92XXX %)
Assuming this compounding increase of time will be true a third time, we can estimate that it will be roughly 730 days after the halving of May 2020, until the peak of the next bull market. That puts the next mania in and around May of 2022. Keep in mind we can over or under-shoot this time frame with the former being more likely in my opinion. As such, +/- 12 months to the date of May 2022.
What is a Bitcoin block reward halving?
For those who don't know, these are the dates on which the rate of inflation (inflation = increase of supply) of Bitcoin is halved. They occur roughly every 4 years or every 210'000 blocks. So why does this matter for the price? In my opinion it is an important catalyst for a spree of buying because it brings with it the reminder that Bitcoin is getting increasingly rarer.
With each cycle, the volatility reduces, and the time it takes to reach climax gets longer. This can be seen by the arc of each movement being longer or more stretched out on the X axis and having a less steep angle of attack on the Y axis. Why? Because the higher Bitcoin goes the more $ is required to move it. In theory, if BTC is to reach the status of a globally accepted store of value, it implies a market cap of several trillion and it's % 'swings' per day will be less than 1%.
The Mean
As seen on the chart above, the mean price is represented by the curved, green dotted line. This is a rough estimate I made by taking the average price of previous bubbles.
((top + bottom) ÷ 2) = mean price of the bubble // To find our point we measure the time it takes from top until bottom and divide by 2 // Create a vertical line at the middle of the time frame // Where the average price and halfway time vertical intersect, this is our point // Repeat for all three bubbles (Assuming $3k is bottom for the current bubble) and we are able to plot the mean price over time.
It does look incorrect visually speaking as the inclination is to think the average price should 'divide' the price in half throughout Bitcoins history. The fact is that because Bitcoin pumped so high so fast throws it off.
A, B & C - Trend lines
Labeled above as A, B & C are the trend supports Bitcoin respects during it's bull runs. One way we can can watch out for the next bull market is when BTC starts to make a series of higher highs and higher lows that respect a definite line as support. It will grind up along the line, testing it as support several times along the way before taking a steep jump away from the line to start a parabolic run.
What we are looking for in this case is trend line 'D' to reveal it'self. For a safer investment strategy, one can sit the market out until it appears before buying in.
Weekly moving averages
Please refer to the colour coded reference on chart for clarification. I see a lot of people saying that if BTC breaks the 200 week moving average that it is game over, I disagree. What these people are overlooking is that we also have a 300 week moving average below, a 400 week moving average. 500, 600 & 1000 week moving averages, so the idea that one must hold or BTC is ded.... is just plain silly.
MA's are a powerful tool in the arsenal of a trader/investor. For those who don't know: A moving average is nothing more than a smoothed version of the price compromised of the average price from X candles on any given time frame, X being the input.
For example;
MA 20 // 1W // Each point contains the average from the previous 20 weeks of price action
MA 150 // 1D // Each point contains the average from the previous 150 days of price action
MA 200 // 1H // Each point contains the average from the previous 100 hours of price action
MA 500 // 5M // Each point contains the average from the previous 2500 minutes of price action (500 x 5)
And so on and so forth.
X, Y & Z Climax points + Next bubble potential targets as a result
These are the points at which the price breaks above the mean and goes near vertical, not much else needs to be said about that. People are often disinterested if you don't talk price so here is an observation (I am not implying this will be the case).
Coincidentally, the projected trajectory of next mania intersects the mean at about $50'000. This is a very important price level psychologically speaking because it means a cap of $1'000'000'000'000 ($1 Trillion). Humans like round numbers, $50k is very round. To get to $100k from $50k, as implied by the breach of the green dotted line (the mean) we need another $1 Trillion in market cap to be added... is this likely? Honestly who knows, it's Crypto.
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And now for the BEARISH scenario - The part no one wants to hear
From a TA and FA standpoint there is no real reason to be overly bearish in the long run. But for arguments sake I will bring some things to mind that could bring the bearish scenario into play.
Black Swan Events // Self explanatory why these are bearish.
Regulation // If Governments or banks decide they don't like Bitcoin or any non-state run crypto, they can simply make it illegal to use. They cannot stop you from using it but they can prosecute you for doing so.
Recession // This will be Bitcoins first real test as we are heading into the next global recession at the time this publication. Bitcoin was forged in the fires of the last recession, will it be able to stand tall in this one? Time will tell.
I do see some people saying that the pieces are being put in place for the big boys to pump Bitcoin to the moon during this next recession. There is a chance of course but it is in my opinion quite delusional for two reasons.
1) It makes zero sense to hedge in the most risky asset class in existence during times of high risk in the traditional markets.
2) Bitcoin whales are sooo far ahead of the curve in terms of accumulation that if Institutes were to pump Bitcoin to hedge their wealth during the recession that whales could obliterate their wealth by dumping. Remember, the higher Bitcoin goes the more powerful they are in this regard.
Outdated // Some new technology could be so much better than Bitcoin by several orders of magnitude that people decide to ditch Bitcoin in favour of the new coin. Unlikely, but unwise to rule out. This is why diversification into projects aiming to solve on chain scaling is not a bad idea in my opinion.
Difficulty // Bitcoin difficulty adjustment happens every 2016 blocks. That means at the average price of blocks (10 minutes) it takes 2 weeks for the adjustment to take place. If there is a sufficient drop off in the network hash rate (we saw a significant % drop during the BCH war but not enough to cause long term damage) the difficulty could be so great relative to hash power that the Bitcoin protocol effectively freezes. In theory the network could hardfork to an adjusted difficulty rate but what is to say the same thing couldn't happen again?
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Conclusion
We live in exciting times. We are perhaps on the cusp of a new type of decentralized society and I am cautiously optimistic going forwards. Regardless of the price or getting rich, if this experiment succeeds humanity has a brighter future ahead, potentially with a bottom up structure. That being said, I still think we are 18-24 months out from the beginning of the next bull market. Be patient, see the bigger picture and accumulate accordingly.
Thank you for taking your time to read my ramblings (if you made it this far :P). I really do appreciate it!
P.S - Please leave feedback in the comments and perhaps even coin suggestions that I can do future posts on similar to this.
Peace.
Hain Celestial - Correction mode over?The food company, with sales of $ 2.8 billion and 7,800 employees, has already passed the correction phase at $ 25.46 and completing the wave E of 4. The complete previous upward movement has been corrected by more than 61.8% and that is a good trend reversal range.
Hain Celestial specializes in the production of organic and natural products and is currently in a restructuring phase. There is market potential in an increasingly conscious population, and after completion of the restructuring, prices of US $ 90-130 should not come as a surprise over the next 5-8 years. For investors with a long-term horizon, therefore, an entry into this stock should be considered. However, the stop loss should be set at $ 20.06 to reduce the risk.
Greetings from Hanover
Stefan Bode
P.S. If you liked it, talk about it and recommend me.
Long-Term forecast from https://walletinvestor.comI just saw something VERY alarming. With today's chaos, I took to the internet looking for long-term crypto forecasts.
According to walletinvestor.com , out of BTC, ETH , LTC, and XRP - and this of course is only 3rd party predictions , the results are shocking. Have a look at the long term forecasts at walletinvestor.com for the major crypto's. Unfortunately they only have forecasts available for what can be termed as the fairly recent top-5 cryptos , and according to their site , out of the coins listed , there is only one with a current positive prediction.
You are likely to be surprised.
*I am nobody. This is not financial advice. Only a relay of Information available to the public at large.*
We recommend to look at the project BLOCKv#VEE
BLOCKv is based on the Ethereum blockchain and develops in the field of digital objects. The main focus of the development is on the creation and management of digital assets, content licensing and the transfer of such mechanisms on the blockchain basis. Every day we use the objects of the digital world, such as: photos, videos, various advertising banners and social platforms. Their value is currently not appreciated, and property rights, as a rule, are extremely small. Using the blockchain, the BlockV platform creates an environment where digital objects become truly accessible, acquire value, and can be a market and liquid product. In addition, it is worth noting the wave of the development of virtual and augmented reality - another new step in the development of Internet technologies. The introduction of blockchain technologies into virtual reality will give users the possession of digital objects and things that exist exclusively in the virtual space. The BlockV project will be a pioneer in this industry. Further penetration into the traditional society of blockchain technologies is a matter of a short time, and the more clear and accessible to ordinary people products will be offered by companies creating their projects on the blockchain, the faster this process will be completed. BlockV is essentially an ecosystem of virtual things on the blockchain.
Investing in such an asset for good should be considered for a period of 5 years, but in the next year one can see the possibility of making a profit from open deals from current levels. While we are above the established support (about 0.00000129), the asset has good chances to build an upward movement. MACD has been bullish since the end of the month of May, and RSI since the beginning of March, while the cost of VEE has fallen. Such a divergence is a good sign and may indicate upcoming growth. We highly recommend to pay attention to this project, such ideas - the future that has already come.
SLV - Long Term Buy and HoldI have purchased a large tranche of SLV to begin building up a long term position in the very beaten-up precious metals sector. I am not convinced the bottom is in quite yet but we are likely close. I have begun seeing articles about how gold/silver investing is dead and some articles go as far as saying the price of PMs will never recover. Price extremes, extreme statements in news articles, extreme positioning, and capitulation by the perma-bulls often mark the beginning of a bottom. Why I have chose silver is due to the Gold/Silver ratio now being towards the top of a century long extreme.
Let me re-iterate that PM's could continue to bottom for the next few months and correct even deeper but as a long term buy-and-hold strategy, any future price drops will offer opportunities to average down. My time horizon for this trade could be 5-10 years or longer. Once price does rebound and begins rallying, owning the stock outright will give me an opportunity to sell covered calls against it and begin generating consistent returns and lower my cost basis even further.
GOLD/USD LONG-TERM,HUSHING ALL THE NOISE,what do the charts say?Now, obviously, gold as every other asset is affected by the all the kind of news that the media discloses. But looking in the 3-5 year span, it's impossible to predict what sort of news will be around, so we'll just assume for now, that it would be a zero-sum game(no gain or loss from news).
However, I'll just mention the current strong trends happening with regards to trade, interest rate and inflation(the biggest factors affecting the XAUUSD).
-Under Trump, we've seen 3 things so far, and there's more than enough indicators pointing that to that these trends will continue:
1. Higher and Higher interest rates
2. Decreasing unemployment/Increasing inflation(these are highly correlated)
3. Tough stance of trade, recent tariffs(which I think he's using in order to raise money, that is missing from the last tax cuts). Lower trade, that usually equals to lower economic growth, since it's a fundamental idea in economics that no one benefits from trade wars for obvious reasons.
All of these factors are pointing to, somewhat of an highly heated up economy that is about to cool down. In any case most of the major economies, are way way overdue for a recession, in which gold value will undoubtedly benefit from.
Note: This is just a preliminary draft of this idea, for now I am waiting for the outcome of the ascending triangle(noted on the chart), but I will continuously update this idea in due time.
Disclaimer:
//This is not a buy or sell sign, you decide what to do with your own money!!//
If you liked my take on gold, and/or other market, comment your thoughts, agree or follow for more interesting ideas, as always, much appreciated, cheers !
ICON seems to have build a bottom @0.00025 Thnxforthe tip aidanbI invest in Crypto currencies and I trade CFD's. When you want to invest in crypto, I advise you to buy 'real coins' because on long term that will give you far more profit than speculate the chart with CFD's. I have bought Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, XRP-Ripple, ReddCoin, FeatherCoin, Adcoin ( ACC ), Bunny Token and looking for others every day! Bunny Token gave me good profit so far! I bought these in Pre-sale. I expect this is going to become huge!
Interesting coins, which I am looking to buy:
- EOS
- QASH
- Bitcoin-Gold
Do you have some good tips for crypto coins? let me know!
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My strategy
My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence.
How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse:
- Sentiment on the market
- Own created indicators
- Moving-averages and Bollinger-Bands
Trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period!
Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new analysis. Also read my account to be informed about what I do.
Thank you for following and Succes with trading !
Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
BTC - Digital Gold - Don't panic - PATIENCE IS THE KEY. Hi Guys.
We know you are stressed and anxious.
Don’t be. The most important is to not PANIC.
Recent price fall may be linked with the last hack ($40 million in tokens) of the Korean Exchange Coinrail.
This is one of the smallest exchanges. They are ranked on 90th place based on trading volume.
Most notably, the hackers got away with $19.5 million-worth of NPXS tokens that were issued by payment project Pundi X’s ICO. Added to that they scored a further $13.8 million from Aston X, an ICO project building a platform to decentralize documents, $5.8 million in tokens for Dent, a mobile data ICO, and over $1.1 million Tron, a much-hyped project originating from China.
The whole amount is nothing (0,013%) according to the whole market cap ($300 billion).
This was unpredictable although we may expect another hacks and rapid price falls in the future.
Keep a bit of fiat currency or USDT for such sales. :)
Please remember why BTC is and will be the king of all crypto. This is digital gold.
1. Gold does not oxidize thus it maintains its value. Bitcoin doesn't deteriorate either. They both don't lose their value because of their (physical) state.
2. Both gold and BTC are widely used. Gold - reserves and jewellery. BTC - reserves (long-term capital investment); to buy 95% of other crypto you need to buy BTC first. There is a constant demand on both.
3. Their amount is small and strictly limited.
Please look at the long-term chart. This is log scale.
We have a very strong support at $6100 level.
We identified triangle shape. We should bounce up from this triangle breaking resistance at $7300 - $9000 level. Please look at the green rectangle. This is boy zone.
According to the Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension we are very low. Nearly at the bottom. They only major move is UP.
BE PATIENT. PATIENCE IS THE KEY.
Keep watching us for updates.
If you like what we are doing do not forget to like it.
Your comments are highly appreciated.
HUGE HUGS.
Your WBM Team!
USDCAD - Daily Chart AnalysisPrice Action: Neutral
Pattern: Asymmetrical triangle
Long-Term Momentum: Bullish
Short-Term Momentum: Bearish
Bias: Neutral
Action: Wait until price breaks trend resistance or trend support to indicate further price momentum.
Comments: Do not trade this pair until further confirmation of price action
USDJPY - Weekly AnalysisPrice has been moving in a parabolic manner since March. There was a few times in recent structure that price formed a doji star and it seemed like price would reverse but it didn't. Similar to the monthly chart, price is nearing a major resistance zone + trend resistance. If bullish momentum continues to show from the dollar price will continue to trend nicely. There is a chance that price can consolidate in this region for some time.
USDJPY - Monthly Chart AnalysisPrice created a LH in the structure at the beginning of March and has been moving nicely to the upside. There is some major rejection happening at the 110.3 level. If price is able to get above and hold daily resistance, 29 EMA, and trend resistance there could be a runup to 115. Everything depends on what will happen with the U.S. dollar of the next several weeks.
Orange SA France(Telecom) - Undervalued.This year in the report , the heads stated that they will increase the dividends by 0.05 euro cents. Meaning - earnings are better. As earnings are rising, dividends risen also, the stock moved higher, the questions is for how long. As it was floating in a highest range for quiet some time, I assume there will be the market correction to the bigger channels bottom.
As this company is owned also by a government of France, we do not expect it to skyrocket, but we assume it to be confident and steady for a good yearly %.
Analysed PE, BV and financial reports. We have a an undervalued company.
Briefly.
256 million customers worldwide.
0.65 Euros dividend per share.
15% of stocks - Government of France
85% of stocks - public float.
BUYING PRICES AND INVESTMENTS SPREADS: 12 - 10% of capital
10 - 10% of capital
9 - 15% of capital
8 - 20% of capital
SELLING PRICES - 16
17
QASH in good direction When it break 0,9000 it gets interesting!I invest in Crypto currencies and I trade CFD's. When you want to invest in crypto, I advise you to buy 'real coins' because on long term that will give you far more profit than speculate the chart with CFD's. I have bought Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, XRP-Ripple, ReddCoin, FeatherCoin, Adcoin (ACC), Bunny Token and looking for others every day! Bunny Token gave me good profit so far! I bought these in Pre-sale. I expect this is going to become huge!
Do you have some good tips for crypto coins? let me know!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My strategy
My main strategy is called 'cycle-trading'. After years of learning and practicing after I bought a teaching-package from a visionair, I found a way of how to trade successful with CFD's on the stock-market. Every stock is following an certain cycle which repeats itself. So, movements are often appearing in the same percentage, aswel long as short. This cycles appear at all levels; when you analyse the chart at 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 1 hour. (others I don't use). This is the case, because all in life is build by the fibonacci sequence. When you analyse the chart, you'll also see the stock market is behaving itself as the fibonacci sequence.
How do I decide to open a position or not? First I analyse:
- Sentiment on the market
- Own created indicators
- Moving-averages and Bollinger-Bands
Trading means investing. Sometimes you lose more than you win in the beginning of a period!
Don't forget to follow me, so you get updated when I post new analysis. Also read my account and the 'status updates' to be informed.
Thank you for following and Succes with trading !
Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
Bearish, but taking a small long positionI am generally short term bearish on COINBASE:BTCUSD but consider the coming days a great opportunity for dollar cost averaging if you believe the overall trend long term is growth in the coin.
I do recall last year being absolutely blown away by the $6000 price tag of COINBASE:BTCUSD but at this point it seems like an absolute steal. It's like buying NASDAQ:AMZN when it was $100.
I'll be taking another position around the 7900 and 7500 price points and then waiting a few days for the market to shake out. I'm still anticipating a short term bearish move so better prices could rear their heads, but I liken betting on BTC similar to betting on the S&P - in the long run it always recovers even if sometimes it takes years.
If your goal is Account Building, Swing Trading and Day Trading then stay out, I'm sure there are better opportunities in other coins or just waiting for this to drop more.