T-Bonds (US 30 yr); Wait for it!If it walks like a duck and it quacks like a duck ... But wait for it!
In reality the Inflation-Deflation pendulum is already past mid-swing, towards the later (by most meaningful measures). Incidentally, most institutions and central banks are piled in at the short end of the curve and one could sell them anything going out past 3 years, for anything. That, in itself, ought to serve as a warning. (Yeah, they are known to be dead wrong, especially when it really matters.)
Add in (or don't!) the A.I.+ automation related speculative bonanza about long term deflationary pressures and the case would get even stronger for rates to peak at these levels.
Wait for signs of a reversal, though.
p.s. The only thing that goes up in a market crash is correlation! (I.e., T-Bonds alone will not save anyone.)
Longtermrates
Gold leads inflation by 20 yearsBank run crisis causes the current Fed fund rate to trade higher than the rest of the bond yields, what is its implication?
As US CPI remain high, global equities will continue to be uncertain this year. Investors are now turning their attention to precious metals.
Gold has started to move up since year 2000, it has appreciated more than 700%. However, the inflation and interest rates was stagnated the last 20 years.
What's happening?
Because in those years, I classified it as "Borrowed Time"
A need for easy money policy by:
1) Increasing the money supply
2) Lowering interest rates
Good times may be over, but I am seeing opportunities in the other set of assets - commodities.
For traders -
3 types of gold for trading:
• COMEX Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
• E-mini Gold
0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50
• Micro Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
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