EUR/USD Analysis for Week 21DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
Ok so this pair has been a bit tricky for me. A lot of volatility but we can manage. Let's take a look...
Daily:
Ok so on this daily we can see an uptrend since March of this year making higher lows and thus forming a trenline, and after that gap in April the price has shot up to a bit of a resistance level at 1.12777 that has been rejected but also forming support levels at 1.11387 which was rejected on Thursday and Friday.
4hr:
Ok so lets take a look here at the trendline we drew last week. Out analysis last week was Long because of the price was touching the trendline and my analysis was that it would bounce off. So it played out well until Wednesday when there was some mayor news coming out for the Dollar.
Two things happened here last week. I entered a short position on Tuesday which seemed that was gonna play out well, but the news made price hit my stop loss, only to come back, break the trendline and go way past my take profit. So I need to work on being patient, follow my analysis and not stick to the losses.
Now back to the chart, the price bounced off our 1.11387 support to tap the trendline we had drawn and closing the week around that 1.11918 area that was previous support. So now it could be resistance?
I cant give a certain movement on this pair. But I do believe that the price has been exhausted out and we will see the price start retracing on the long run.
Longtermshort
GBPAUD 3000pips potential trade!!As we can see on GBP/AUD Chart here . the price already react to weekly resitance and preparing to go short until the last destination (weekly support1,427..)
Note that we are on bearish territory and if the candle close above resistance just treat it like support.
Happy and safe trading (like and follow for more)
News both went neutral
NASDAQ 100 Index of US listed shares Potential TurnPointNASDAQ 100 Index of US listed shares GONE SHORT
Sentiment changed at the end of last week and that sets up for a renewed run in equities. But just how strong will this move be?
The chart does show the RSI in technically overbought territory. But there is a saying in technical analysis, overbought can always get more overbought.
*Tensions with North Korea still simmering despite diplomacy talk...
*New missile test comes after Trump warns of conflict...
*etc...
Overall Gone SHORT and jet again with no SL as there is always option to hedge if upwards direction continues for period X. Eventually looking for previous SwingLow where TakeProfit is devided into three Strong S/R areas TP1, TP2, TP3 (close to swing low).
Enjoy the Ride
VNDA Descending Triangle Pattern. Short (and Long) Opportunity.Simple probability set up. Triangle downtrend started in 11/2016 and VNDA has only been through one full harmonic trend (wave) ever since. Second wave downward move imminent with RSI confirmation @ 35 and bearish $13 target.
However, aggressive long entry for quick profit ($15 bullish target) especially with upcoming earnings. Upon $15 target, (expected RSI >50) short for mid-term trend follow.
Quick Long Target: $15
First Short Target: $13
Second Short Target: $11.50
Total trade should complete by/in April.
SNS formationIt looks like the market is at the top of the right shoulder with potential for trend reversal.
In August and recently in September the market tested the resistance line from year 2013. The actual trend is already old and we have not seen any big retracement yet.
Furthermore, BB% indicates a divergence on 20 and 50 timeframe.
The BB are squeezed and big movements is ahead.
In the chart as well my grade setup till end of this year, if the SL holds.
EURGBP // ICT based Monthly long term analysis (multi-scenario)Okay let's have a look at what we can see happening. EURGBP stabbed into the bearish orderblock as shown in the chart on the 7th & 8th month. The 9th month (right now) is the logical reaction of the move away from the bearish orderblock.
- The formation of the bearish orderblock happened above 0.835 , meaning this will likely be absolute max for the wicks/shadows of the next swing high (which when the analysis is correct, will likely take a couple of years from now to occur).
- Threats for the move down are the 0.805 and 0.792 levels. Respectively they have formed rather explosive upmoves in the past. With months that went well over 13.000 pips into the other direction. So keep them and levels just above them in your alerts if you're bearish.
- Furthermore: if we see a response off of either the 0.805 or the 0.792 levels we'll have to see a strong rejection off the current bearish orderblock we're in. If we don't, it's possible that we'll break the tops and return into a bullish trend not visiting the 0.67950 .
I'll keep monitoring the EURGBP long term so I'll be happy to keep this idea updated.
Thanks for reading and I hope this was helpful to you.
Trade with care. Best regards,
Shorttermlong in a Bearish EnvironmentThe bull move since January is still going strong. It seems like they all put their piratepatches on both eyes and are now going with the trend.
Also take a look here at the resemblance for the start of this year and the start of 2015. HS formation formed in both cases, ended up fulfilling in the same way. After this followed the volatile way to the top.
There is no foundation that will keep the oil above 40 for more then a few months, In the next few weeks we will see the 2016 final top, before we move on down for the rest of the year
Longterm picture of OIL, Fibonacci accuracyI can clearly see where this is going.
My target for a definite low for Brent will nevertheless be at the area marked in Yellow with a thick Green line
The psychic border of entering below 20$ as well as the geopolitical crash that would occur makes me think there is no way we can enter below 20$ Brent
BAJAJ AUTO - THE BIG SHORTIn my opinion it is the most prominent sell for this year.
Point noted on Daily Chart,
1. Prices reached at previous resistance, (looking for selling tomorrow)
2. Bearish RSI Divergence
3. Triangle Breakout pattern on weekly and Daily Chart
4. Structure trading - Lower High and Lows
Right now, it is at the lowest risk to enter this one.
Cheers
SPX500 Currently Resembling 2008 Chart: Will it Crash this Year?I first want to note that this is a speculative idea, I may be seeing what I want to see instead of what is actually on the chart. But, with that said, there appears to similarities between the 2008 chart and the current chart. Additionally, if you hover over the blue ovals - for lack of a better word - on the chart, they should provide some context.
Both periods have head and shoulder tops, and it appears that approximately 1800 will act as a short term double bottom, which is similar to the 1260 short term double bottom in early 2008.
If the index rejects 1945, then I'm expecting a rough version an inverse head and shoulders to form, but I'm actually not looking for this to happen. Rather, I believe the market will push through the .382 fib level, and hit the .5 retrace before mid March.
From there, if we roughly follow 2008s pattern, the index will hover around the 50% retrace until the 200 MA meanders down to around 196, at which point the market would reject the moving average and proceed to crash over the rest of the year.
The theoretically, but I believe likely, coming 200 MA rejection may happen sooner if the market pushes through the 50% retrace and gets to the hits the golden ratio 61.8% retrace at 1997.7, which is in essence the massive resistance level of 2000. This immense resistance, if the index gets there, should reject barring any radical change in geopolitics.
Finally, if you compare the current SPX500 Index chart to the oil chart posted below, you'll see roughly comparable already formed and head and shoulders with a descending neckline on oil. Of course, oil broke through the neckline that was formed, and dropped very significantly quit quickly.
Again, all of this is speculation, so do not trade by it unless history repeats itself and patterns confirm