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Bond Yield Inversion vs. SPXThis is nothing new, really. People who have been in markets long enough know that when short term bond yields (3 month and 2 year, for example) come up to meet and invert to a higher yield than longer term bonds (like the 10 year, 30 year etc) that it often precedes a large market sell off as well as a recession that affects most everyone, not just stock prices. On this graph, I maybe got a little carried away. I have the 1 month, 3 month, 1 year, 2 year, 10 year and 30 year as well as the actual Fed Funds rate with SPX in the background. This goes back to the mid 1990s, you can see the dotcom boom, you see the yields invert, SPX tops and then takes near 3 years to finally find bottom before reversing course. Unfortunately for long only stock holders, the treasury yields started to climb with stocks as well until they inverted in 2007 once more. Stocks started to come down, and, well, then 2008 happened... You can see that in general, the fed funds and the shorter term yields find a plateau at their top, tend to stay there for awhile (sometimes for a whole year), then as they start to come back down, the stock market tends to be near its highs, and then the stock market starts to come down. Big money tends to see higher treasury yields as a safer haven for their money than stocks at this point. If you have the ability to hold the treasury to expiration, you're guaranteed to get 100% of the money back plus whatever the yield % was at time of purchase as interest paid to you by the government. Furthermore, there is an inverse relationship between bond yield percentage going up, and the value of bonds on the open market. As yields go up, the value of bonds goes down. Vice versa, as yields start to retract, bond values go up. So, there is high incentive to start buying a lot of bonds as the rates plateau near the top. Maybe some of these large hedges start to sell some equities as a hedge and buy more bonds as we get to that point. Rebalance their portfolio to be more bond-heavy. Higher short term yields, higher fed funds rate also generally mean that the cost to borrow money for anyone is higher. Higher interest rates means more money out of the pocket of anyone borrowing to pay interest. Bonds themselves are just government debt. The stock market is generally forward looking, so it's often making moves in response to moves in the bond market before main street really starts to feel the effects of the tightening in a meaningful sense. As time has gone on, it seems the market is reacting earlier and earlier to rate hike cycles. Take 2018 for example, the yields didn't really invert until they all were already on their way back down. 2018 had volmeggedon to deal with to start the year, then came back, set a new high, then had a very rough second half of the year as bond yields plateaued. But, as the market saw that this small rate hike cycle didn't do any meaningful harm to the economy and started retracting, stocks took off again: Then COVID happened, yields plummet, cost to borrow was as cheap as it ever has been, the government pumped money everywhere to try and prevent a complete collapse of everything, stocks were off to the races harder than ever before after finding bottom just a few weeks into the pandemic. But, mentioning the market kind-of getting ahead of itself again, we had all of 2022, as it became apparent that inflation was now raging and bigger rate hikes than we've seen since the Great Financial Crisis would be necessary, the stock market sold off despite the economy still showing very solid recovery out of the pandemic. But now, treasury yields are still climbing, but so are stocks. Treasuries hit a little hiccup in March as a couple regional banks were found to be overlevered in treasuries that had too low of a yield, and as more people began withdrawing money and those banks needed liquidity, they had to sell those treasuries at a loss. If they didn't have to come up with that liquidity and were able to allow those treasuries to mature, they make that small percent of interest for holding them. But because they were forced to sell them as treasury values were at a low because they had inadequate liquidity to cover deposits being withdrawn. But, now maybe surprisingly, despite some of the troubles and the market sell off for most of 2022, we're now not all that far off of CBOE:SPX 's highs from the end of 2021, start of 2022. But, we still don't know what the full effect of the current high interest rates are going to be. It's possible the old mechanism where when we finally reach the top for interest rates, right as we get the precipice of rates starting to fall, equities top out and start to sell off shortly thereafter again. For how big and how long? Who knows. Despite the recent 'skip' from the federal reserve, opting to not hike at the June meeting, the 3 month yield, which typically is what most closely matches/leads what the fed is going to hike to, has in recent days made it look increasingly likely that we see at least a quarter point hike for July. The market probably won't like that news, maybe we get a few red days, but if economy data coming in still looks solid and inflation is showing a slow, steady reduction, it may not be long before the market decides to go back up again. We might even go past the 2021/early 2022 highs this year. But, eventually, we'll find the top for yields, and I have a feeling a bigger correction for stocks will loom at that point. For right now, seems like a bad idea to go against the bulls. But, keep an eye out for when we finally reach the top in treasury yields, look in particular for the 3 month, fed funds and the 2 year to go sideways. Once all 3 start to go down, pay closer attention to economic data coming in. Also take a look at www.tradingview.com for evidence of lower highs off the lowest point for the current cycle. You see the combination of the two, we may be in for a big correction. Again.
TVC:US03MY
by dieseldub
🚀GRIMACE to the MarsTake a closer look at $GRIMACE right now Short-term local forecast This trading idea is based on a commonly observed behavior of meme coins. After an initial surge, the coin tends to consolidate for a few weeks, undergoing redistribution and position accumulation. Here are some arguments in favor of the asset's potential growth towards the first target ($10): After trading in a deep discount zone, significant players start accumulating positions. We can observe a gradual reduction in local liquidity from decreasing lows. Referring to the basics of technical analysis: A Wyckoff pattern is apparent, with an UpThrust (UT) observed - a liquidity shakeout from the previous high. This forms new liquidity for further growth. Next, it is necessary to test the support in the form of an OB (Overbought) area. Here, a Spring will be formed - a local liquidity shakeout before mark-up. It is characterized by lower volumes, and the decrease to the specified values may take some time. Local reverse bull divergence and direct bear divergence in local highs indicate buyer weakness, providing another argument in favor of a short-term asset devaluation.
GLong
by glebeb
1
XAU GOLD 26/6 !! Any chance for gold price to recover?Gold price receives some support as the US Dollar weakens slightly. The USD has been struggling to gain momentum despite a recent recovery, and this is partly due to a decline in US Treasury bond yields. Additionally, concerns about the impact of the failed mutiny in Russia have also contributed to the rise in the safe-haven appeal of Gold. Notably, Russian mercenaries briefly seized the city of Rostov before retreating after reaching a deal for their safety and the exile of their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to Belarus. Gold price has now recovered to above $1920 mark, specifically at $1925 Can BUY zone at: BUY ZONE 1913 -1915 entry 1, BUY zone 1903 -1905 SL 1892 Technical indicators analysis EMA 34, EMA 89. Strong support at $1903 - $1900
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
23
ASML Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 747.14 Volume: with volume greater than 1.41M Target: 789 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 733.20 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NASDAQ:ASMLLong
by tradepatiently
GOLD 23/6 $$ CORRUPTION OF PRICES ABOUT $1910The US Dollar's moderate strength is playing a role in limiting the rise of XAU/USD. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his recent two-day testimony, emphasized that the central bank will likely increase interest rates later this year, but in a cautious manner, to address persistent high inflation. Powell also stated that rate cuts are not expected in the near future and the Fed will wait until it is confident that inflation is moving towards the target of 2%. As a result, US Treasury bond yields surged overnight, providing some support for the US Dollar and potentially further curbing the price of Gold denominated in US Dollars. Gold price is approaching the lowest price in 2 months around $1910. The buying force at this time is not large, the downtrend is still dominant SET up GOLD zone at: BUY GOLD zone: $1903 - $1900 SL 1890 Based on the EMA 34 , EMA 89 shows no signs of reversal yet
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
22
GOLD 22/6!! Will buyers prevail?The price of gold is being supported by economic troubles and a weaker US Dollar. Concerns about a global economic downturn are affecting investor sentiment, leading to a generally weaker tone in the stock markets. Additionally, the demand for the US Dollar is subdued, which is also contributing to the support for gold as a safe-haven asset. The USD Index, which tracks the value of the US Dollar against other currencies, is near its monthly low due to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate hike plans. Gold is fluctuating at $1932, may drop 1 more beat before recovering Today, order to place a BUY AT: BUY zone: $1923- $1925 sl $1913 Based on the moving averages EMA 34, EMA 89 , the MACD moving average is close to crossing the signal line, volume divergence is forming.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
13
GOLD 21/6!!! Gold near post-Powell lowsGold prices remained just above their lowest level in three months on Wednesday, as they suffered significant losses in the previous session due to traders shifting their focus to the dollar in anticipation of further information on U.S. interest rates. Later in the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify before Congress, which could provide more insight into the future of monetary policy and interest rates following the mixed messages from the Fed last week. The uncertain stance of the Fed prompted some investors to move their assets into the dollar, given that the central bank paused its rate increase cycle but indicated the possibility of more hikes later in the year. Consequently, gold prices were negatively affected and remained relatively stagnant within a narrow trading range observed over the past month. Prediction of sideways gold price in the price range $1920 - $1955 Today, can put 2 entry at: BUY GOLD: zone $1925- $1927 SELL GOLD: zone $1949- $1951 Combine 2 EMA 34, EMA 89 and finonaccy signal to have 2 beautiful support and resistance entry areas
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
20
Mid-Range Trade opportunity on JP MorganHere is a good trade opportunity on JP Morgan. I will wait for the breakout of the resistance level and then enter after a successful retest to the resistance level, and if it fails to break the resistance level and breaks the lower trend I will Exit and close the trade. 1- You can get around 11% profit easily. 2- It might take 1-2 months. 3- There is also a dividend declared by the company ( Ex-date: 5th July 2023). 4- This is one of the most reputed and large-cap companies, so it should be considered safe! 5- Follow the instructions on the chart carefully, Feel free to modify the trade according to your risk. Disclaimer: This is not a piece of investment advice and I am not a certified financial advisor, I just found an opportunity and thought it would be great to share it with the community, Invest at your own risk, and feel free to modify the trade according to your risk profile.
NYSE:JPMLong
by strange112
GOLD 20/6: Gold price weakening at the beginning of the morning The Federal Reserve's unclear direction regarding interest rate increases has resulted in limited price movement in the market. Congress is closely monitoring this situation. So, The price of gold is having difficulty taking advantage of its small increase earlier in the day and is moving within a narrow range during the first half of the Asian session on Tuesday. Currently, the XAU/USD is trading around $1,950, with little change from the start of the day. It has been trading within a familiar range for the past month or so. Gold price assessment on June 20, 23 continues to sideway narrowly in the range of $1935 - $1960 Canh Buy price range $1939-$1941, SL $1930 TP: 1955 Based on technical analysis indicators EMA 34, EMA 89 with support point $1939.
TVC:GOLDLong
by DNA_TradingFX
22
ORLY Long on Consolidation Break-Out🐂 Trade Idea: Long 🔥 Account Risk: 1.00% 📈 Recommended Product: Knockout 🔍 Entry: +/- 922.00 🐿 DCA: No 😫 Stop-Loss: 877.99 (898.75 for aggressive trade) 🎯 Take-Profit #1: 977.59 (50%) 🎯 Take Profit #2: - 🎯 Trail Rest: Yes 🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨 If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button! — ORLY is in an overall uptrend and broke the consolidation trendline with a strong candle going into a bullish consolidation inside a small range. Entry should only be made if the daily candle remains outside the consolidation range (green box) today. If it falls back wait for another break-out and daily close. — Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG The trades shown here related to stocks, cryptos, commodities, ETFs and funds are always subject to risks. All texts as well as the notes and information do not constitute investment advice or recommendations. They have been taken from publicly available sources to the best of our knowledge and belief. All information provided (all thoughts, forecasts, comments, hints, advice, stop loss, take profit, etc.) are for educational and private entertainment purposes only. Nevertheless, no liability can be assumed for the correctness in each individual case. Should visitors to this site adopt the content provided as their own or follow any advice given, they act on their own responsibility.
NASDAQ:ORLYLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
EURNZD - And The Trend Continues!Analysis: This is another setup that to us looks highly probable. Firstly price has been in this long term upwards trend, although recently we did see this trend break, however that was a fake out, and price has now continued the upwards trend so know this we're only looking to go long on this pair. The level where price is currently sat at is also a key level for multiple reasons. Firstly its been tested multiple times and has shown strong momentum from the level so we expect this to happen again. It is also around the 1.75000 psychological level which we expect some support from meaning that we already have the start of a great setup. To add to this setup we also have the 50% fib retracement level which is lining up exactly with our area so this give us more confidence as we expect that buyers will be sat at this area making it more likely that our level will hold. We've also got a long term upwards trendline which has been respected multiple times and has caused momentum so we anticipate that this will happen again. Fundamentally as well the EUR is the strongest major currency whereas the NZD is the 4th strongest major currency so this goes in our favour by a lot. The EUR recently did have a decrease in long positions and an increase in short positions but so did the NZD so this is why we are bullish on the EUR when it comes to EURNZD, giving us our overall bullish bias. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
2
LINK long idea Listen up, in the world of crypto, Chainlink's the game, But before you go long, you gotta manage that risk, it's not a game. With LINKUSDT, a long idea in play, Channels, OBV, and Fibs to pave the way. Been in accumulation, for almost a year, But with potential targets in sight, don't you fear. TP1 at 7.4, TP2 at 8.40, TP3 at 8.8, TP4 at 9.48, so don't you get naughty. But with gains in sight, you gotta keep your SL in check, Below 5.75, to prevent losses and protect. So let's go long on LINKUSDT, With a strategic plan, and risk management to see. With channels, OBV, and Fibs to play, Potential profits, just a breakout away. But don't forget the SL, it's your safety net, To ensure gains, and no losses to fret. So let's ride the wave, and make it big, With LINKUSDT, and a plan that's strategic. Potential targets in sight, but risk management is key, For a successful trade, and a profit to decree.
Long
by DepecheGST