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Loonie

USDCAD H4: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 1.3800On the H4 time frame, prices are facing bearish pressure from the resistance zone at 1.3800 which coincides with the graphical resistance zone, descending channel’s resistance and Fibonacci confluence levels. A pullback to the 1.3800 resistance zone presents an opportunity to play the drop to the support target at 1.3585, in line with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding below the Ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Long
by T3-Consultancy
1
USDCAD pullback brewing ahead?USDCAD looks like it may be gearing up for a pullback from resistance below 1.39. The rally from mid-August appears to have run out of momentum after testing an inflection zone that has acted as both support and resistance since May 2017. Negative RSI divergence highlights ebbing bullish vigor. A pullback from here sees initial supports at the 1.36 and 1.35 figures. A break below the latter threshold may open the door for a slide to test resistance-turned-support at 1.3224.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USDCAD: DXY Likely To Consolidate Before Major Uptrend Resumes!DXY is Bullish on long term, however after another upwards impulse it looks like time for consolidation has likely arrived. Here we focus on the USDCAD 4H chart, where the price seems to be loosing momentum as evident by the RSI & naked eye. The key here is to of course as always wait for the support break and then only go SHORT provided the price retraces to offer us at least 1:1 RR. Have a look at the chart for full details on this potential trading opportunity. Keep in mind, this is just a potential short consolidation move, after which the uptrend might resume as the DXY is expected to gather strength. Trade Safely & Cautiously. Cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDCAD strong impulse towards my target at 1.385I have been interested in USDCAD for a while, if you check my previous ideas of the past 5, 2 are about this pair. *** Technical analysis *** The momentum (finally) got pretty strong. The price is now quite extended, the RSI on the weekly chart is in the process of crossing 70 and it rarely goes further than 80 and the price is far away from its moving averages. The move up might be soon over, maybe there are just 1 to 3 weeks left, but until then we can squeeze some profit from this pair before finally looking elsewhere. On the 4 hour chart you can see the Guppy Moving Averages have crossed and the fast ones are supporting the price, quite perfectly I might add: On the daily chart we can see we are currently in an extended 3rd Elliott Wave. My target will be the next serious resistance at about 1.385, which also happens to be close to the 1.618 extension from wave (1). But since the momentum is so strong feel free to hold as long as the price is going up, it could go a bit past target, think of a really big truck going full speed towards a tree, it will stop but not immediately. A bit past target you got 1.618 at 1.388 so that might be where the price is going. On the 1 hour chart the trend is rather. Where to buy? I can't tell. Any strategy will do I guess? But close to some sort of support on the daily chart is probably a safer bet than just at random. It is getting stronger and stronger, so waiting for a big pullback will probably get you in when the reversal happens. What my opinion is other than where to buy: target is at least 1.385 (possibly a bit more), no point going for a huge risk to reward (something around 4 seems to make sense to me). *** Fundamental analysis *** Canada economic data is overall negative and significantly worse than what was expected (consensus): - Bad job numbers => The latest unemployement rate release, which came out the 9 september, shows unemployement at 5.4%. previous number was 4.9% and consensus was this announcement would be 5%. - Bad retail sales => The lastest numbers are from friday (23/09) and they are absolutely terrible. Yes this is a high impact thing, according to sites that offer an economic data/calendar service. The numbers, which are for July, show a 2.5% drop, versus the last ones at +1% and consensus at -2%. - Bad oil prices => And what else happened on this friday, other than the bad retail sales announcement? The Oil price slipped almost 4% (WTI) or 2% (Brent) below the recent previous low. Oil prices are not as good as they used to be these past months, so another reason for the loonie to suffer. Meanwhile, the US Dollar can't stop getting love: - Oh the S&P 500 is down so everyone buys the USD. And when it goes up they buy the USD anyway. High inflation, low inflation, does not matter. No matter what USD gets 1 free bonus point, it's like an rpg, USD has a special skill "+1 for free". +1, just because. It does not fight fair. - Same interest rate as CAD => 3.25%. +0. - Retail sales are alright, pretty decent and a positive surprise => (For August) 0.3% versus last month -0.4% and consensus at 0%. So the USD gets +1. - Unemployement is not as terrible as Canada's => Unemployement rate for August was announced at 3.7% versus last month 3.5% and consensus 3.5%. Jobless claims are also alright, the latest numbers (for September 9, released the 22) are 213K versus 218K consensus and the previous ones (from most recent to oldest): 208K, 218K, 228K, 237K; it's in a downtrend and this 213K probably gets a revision to the downside like the previous ones had. Another +1 for the USD. They are plenty of other numbers but I believe these are the main ones, and anyway the other numbers tell the same story: CAD bad, USD good. I would jump on any opportunity to buy. *** Learning from previous trades *** Now is a good time to look back on my previous ideas and maybe learn something 1- The one that turned out great: Entry DOES matter. If you just were patient, waited and held, it went all the way to target. The price made an ABC and went from the bottom of my arrow to the top of my arrow. Just beautiful. It was easy to get 5R here. 2- The one that turned out terrible: Oh the running gag again. This is my flaw. I keep holding and I keep messing up. I do not know why I keep insisting and throwing my profit in the fire. I'm good at entries, really good at placing my stops, exceptional at targets; but I have no clue how to trail... be it on the way to target or past target. After years of messing up I'm just going for some basic higher low trailing system on the way to target, and once at target I should have very weak hands, basically unless it explodes I should get out, price dropped 0.25R? I'm out. One of the reason I do not want to use a limit order is since I am aware my targets are absolutely amazing (and I even improved them further recently) I am worried my brokers will notice and "steal" it from me. My targets are the single reason why I went all in trading and have a 3 year gap in my CV. And I'm ruining it with my idiotic "Uhh strong hands! Just hold! To the moon!" Do not be like me, do not be a fool. We aren't Warren Buffett. These are not companies we are investing into. Seriously? What is wrong with me? Autism? How do I break such a money wasting silly habit? Punch myself each time 250 euros of unrealized profit disappear? Ah, clic play and look at this depressing disaster. And I have been doing this noob garbage for years, since I started 5 years ago. I am so dense:
Long
by MrRenev
3
Strength To Strength DXY: Loonie Set To Depreciate Further With another crucial resistance broken at 1.37200, the Loonie seems to be on a gradual path to depreciation against the greenback. With FED aggressively raising rates to tame inflation, we can expect the DXY to get stronger and stronger near-term. No different analysis applies to USDCAD, as the Loonie is likely set to depreciate both technically and fundamentally against the USD. Looking at the technical picture, the crucial resistance at 1.37200 was breached as the weekly candle closed above it convincingly. With this having taken place, the next resistance that is upcoming is present at 1.40500. For complete information on the levels, have a look at the main chart for in-depth observation. Trade Safe & Cautiously. Cheers
Long
by FX618Analysis
Canadian Dollar at Risk as USD/CAD Attempts Uptrend ResumptionThe Canadian Dollar may be vulnerable to the US Dollar with USD/CAD attempting to resume the broader uptrend. USD/CAD is attempting to confirm a breakout above the June 26th, 2020 high at 1.3716. Still, prices need to clear the September 2022 high at 1.3833 to open the door to extend gains. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence is present. This is a sign of fading upside momentum which can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome could open the door to testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the dominant upside focus. But, the line is currently sitting at 1.3350. With that in mind, be mindful of near-term downside potential before the broader uptrend could resume. FX_IDC:USDCAD
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
USDCAD in front of highAfter the rapid rise of recent weeks, should be at 1.395 end for now. Looking at the sub-waves of the last movement, today's high could also have already ended the wave. For reasons of clarity, I have not drawn these with. There are two options afterwards; either the pair rushes massively into the depths towards 1.12 or we only see a correction into the area of 1.344 to form a high at 1.541 afterwards. Looking at the pair itself, I would prefer the path towards 1.12, from here it could even go further down, but looking at the dollar strength and taking into account the targets in the other pairs, the scenario presented here as ALT should come to pass.
Short
by Elliott-Waves-2_0
EURCAD Short Trade SetupA bearish opportunity recently presented itself on the euro-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bearish harami candlestick pattern which printed just below the 1.33000 psychological level, indicating a rejection of the level. A stop loss above the 1.34000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing low of 1.28777 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 3 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:EURCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Short
by charles-okoukoni
NZDCAD Long Trade SetupA bullish opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern which printed just above the 0.79100 psychological level. A stop loss below the 0.79000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing high of 0.82534 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 7 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades. FX:NZDCAD Rooting for you! Your FX Plug
Long
by charles-okoukoni
USD/CAD BREAKDOWNBased on price action (formation of double top) , market structure and fundamental analysis (The recent hike in Canadian Interest rates) the OANDA:USDCAD looks ready for a bearish dive. There are areas in the market that have clear imbalance which will act as targets for short positions. This levels are labeled and will act as our targets for long term short on this pair. Be advised to always use proper money management when trading. Best of luck as you look out for entry on this pair.
by GeminiWealthGroup
USDCAD short 1.297* retestTechnicals show on the 1HR/ 4HR/ daily TF that USDCAD is at a makeshift resistance. Loonie needs to correct itself at 1.2975 levels if not an impulse dip to 1.292 to shake out retail buyers who were late to the party. WTI oil has also seen a support at $87 and is now looking to test the $97 resistance sector. (currently $91) DXY is in no-mans land with the FED + turmoil within the US economy. DXY is also looking for a mini rollover. I am taking a 1:5 RISK:REWARD trade Entry: 1.30267 SL: 1.30450 TP:1.29250 (we could stop at 1.297* very well)
Short
by chestephens1
Can Ninja Bulls Over Power The Loonie? (CAD/JPY)Ninja Bulls Are Fighting hard (CAD/JPY) The Yen has been fighting against the Cad to push the price down, At this point, there are multiple confluences that are in line with shorts. Price, 1stly, has rejected a higher time frame resistance, it then goes ahead and breaks out of a wedge and now comes back to retest the level at 105.00. We see that on the retracement, the price pushes in a three-wave move to the upside before rejecting which creates a trendline for price to follow, The first sign that the bears will take over again is the break of the trend-line. The second sign is the Break back below 104.200 which gives us two shorting confluences. Once this happens I will look to take my position down to around 101.500. If the price breaks 101.500 then we are in a fully-fledged bear market, I will have to wait for price to provide a solid sell setup so it will depend on the strategy you use to enter trades. On the flip side, remember that price is still very bullish on the higher time frame and it could easily continue to break the resistance and push higher. With that being said it is extremely imperative that we wait for the price to break below 104.200 before we consider selling. Have a fantastic day Traders. Renaldo Philander.
Short
by Tradebudz
2
USDCAD Intraweek Technical AnalysisDollar gave a bullish closing against the loonie because of the surprising non farm payrolls. My idea for next week is that the USDCAD will test the support of 1.285 and 1.278. My idea is to go long from intraweek support levels. My target for coming week is 1.29 and 1.3 in coming week. If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
ULong
by JBShark
USDCAD analysis: Will bears step up?USD/CAD fundamental analysis A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid fundamentals. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in July ( CAINTR ), signaling further tightening to control inflation. As a result, the Fed-BoC monetary policy divergences have narrowed significantly, as evidenced by the short-term (2-year) rate differential between US and Canadian Treasuries, which is now very close to parity (only 9 basis points). A more hawkish Fed is clearly a risk factor, but the Canadian dollar appears to be better protected now thanks to an equally hawkish BoC. Annual inflation in Canada ( CAIRYY ) reached a new 39-year high in June (8.1 percent year on year), but fell short of market expectations (8.4 percent), while producer inflation ( CAPPIYY ) fell for the third month in a row. In contrast to the United States, which unexpectedly entered a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the Canadian economy grew by 1.1% in Q2, according to preliminary estimates, with broad-based expansion in 14 of 20 economic sectors. Regarding the growth outlook, the global and US economic slowdown is starting to weigh on the Canadian economy. In July, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.6, marking the sector’s slowest growth since June 2020. The Canadian dollar has historically weakened in times of global economic slowdown, but this time appears to be holding up well also thanks to the support of WTI ( OIL_CRUDE )and natural gas sticky-high prices. OPEC+ has announced one of the smallest production increases (100,000 b/d since September) in its history, which is equal to 1/1000 of the world’s demand. This means that the crude oil market will continue to be very tight in the coming months and that oil price will remain well sustained, despite the demand of large oil consumers is expected to slowdown. This may continue to represent a tailwind for the Loonie's strength. USD/CAD technical analysis Technically, USD/CAD ) has been trading in a tight, choppy range between 1.278 and 1.294 for the past three weeks. Despite the fact that the USD/CAD ascending channel has been in place for more than a year now, indicating that the major trend still remains bullish, the short-term momentum is gradually shifting in favour of the Canadian dollar. The RSI has been below 50 since July 18, while the MACD fell below the zero line. In the short term, the 1.278 support level (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the USD/CAD rally in June/July) represents an important test. If USD/CAD breaks down here and then at the 200-day moving average at 1,273, it could fall to 1.266 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement). Alternately, 1.295 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could act as a potential resistance test. A breakout to the upside would pave the way for a spike to 1.305 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and then 1.322 yearly highs. However, in order to regain 1.32 levels, a combination of Fed hawkish and BoC dovish shifts as well as indications of a significant slowdown in oil demand will be required. Analysis written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
USDCAD 2nd AUGUST 2022“Loonie” is one of the most liquid pairs in the forex market. This is because this currency pair represents the two largest and most stable economies in the world. The economic environment in Canada is similar to that of the United States. Both countries have a long history as trading partners and both countries have high per capita incomes. There are still several important US economic data releases and events that will stoke volatility in USD-pairs. August 2, the June US JOLTs report is due at 14 GMT , at which time Chicago Fed President Evans will give remarks. August 3, weekly US mortgage application figures will be published at 11 GMT . The July US ISM non-manufacturing (services) PMI will come out at 14 GMT, as will June US factory orders. Weekly US energy inventories data will be released at 14:30 GMT. August 4, weekly US jobless claims are due at 12:30 GMT . Cleveland Fed President Mester will give a speech at 16 GMT. August 5, the July US nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate will be published at 12:30 GMT . The June US consumer credit report will be published at 19 GMT.
by DNP-FX
6