USD/CAD Loonie - Long and short term view. USDCAD - Technical and Fundamental View:
Dollar Fundamentals view:
- Either way there will be further stimulus I am longer term bearish on the Loonie.
- We do have the elections, if Trump goes through and depending on takes over the senate as well is key there will be further reflation trades that will be very interesting to keep in mind and I expect energy commodities to gain further momentum. However, if Biden comes in a short term Dollar decrease would be in play until, focused further would be short term view perhaps - I'd be eyeing the tech stocks, I don't expect that to rise further due to the tax views and various other aspects.
- Stimulus, I am not very sure if it's getting personal behind close doors regarding stimulus- However, people are unfortunately running out of capital and facing hardship - I think there will be a deal it won't be written off. However, to keep in mind - Where is the stimulus allocated as in what sectors and how much.
- Keep an eye on all CB - Central banks.
Technical view:
- Pattern: Wedge formation, within a longer term descending channel
- If we get further dollar strength I'd expect the 200 EMA to come into play again - those areas look like a good resistance area and keep in mind longer term bearish channel.
- If we get further dollar weakness, I'd expect it to follow bearish channel areas - Longer term targets near 161.8 Fib retracement area - 1.28-1.27 areas.
- Key resistance areas - 50 - EMA = 1.32385 to 200 - EMA = 1.33812.
- Key support areas - 1.30338, 1.29066 & 1.27856.
Key Tips:
- We are in a fundamental headline driven market two things to keep in mind - Elections & Stimulus.
- Trade smaller size if you're feeling at unease.
All the best,
Trade Journal (TJ)
