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Loonie

Elliott Wave View: Dips in USDCAD Should Find BuyersUSDCAD 45 minutes chart below shows that the pair has ended 3 wave pullback from June 15 high in wave 2. The pullback unfolded as double three Elliott Wave structure and ended at 1.3482 low. Afterwards, the pair resumed higher in wave 3. Up from 1.3482 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1.3559 high. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 1.3525 low. The pair then extended higher in wave ((iii)), which ended at 1.3666 high. The internal subwave of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure in lesser degree. The pullback in wave ((iv)) then unfolded as a triangle and ended at 1.3632 low. From there, the pair pushed higher in wave ((v)) which ended at 1.3715 high. This final move completed wave 3 in higher degree and ended cycle from June 23 low. The pair is currently doing a pullback in wave 4 to correct the cycle from June 23 low. The correction is unfolding as a double three structure. Down from wave 3 high, the pair ended wave ((w)) at 1.3642 low. Wave ((x)) bounce ended at 1.3705 high. Wave ((y)) is currently in progress. While above 1.3482 low, expect the dips to find support in 7 or 11 swings for more upside. The 100 -161.8% extension of wave ((w))-((x)) where wave ((y)) can potentially end is at 1.3586 – 1.3631 area and shown with a blue box. That area, if reached later, can see a reaction for 3 waves bounce at least.
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
CXY (Canadian Dollar Index) Loonie So on the CXY we have an incomplete Bat Pattern we see PA enterered the PRZ and was severly rejected without completing the pattern. We need the entire box to be tested before the pattern is complete. So, on the COT what we have are the Consumers and Producers buying and selling to eachother. As open interest has increased but the Non-Coms have reduced both their sides respectively while both sides of the commercials have increased thiers. if you were just looking at the Net Positions it would look as if the commercials are stepping to the Zero Line and the Non-Coms are stepping away from the Zero Line, but looking at the Line items the Commercials both have increased their positions, and the Non-Coms have reduced their positions. Now, interestingly enough the Non-Coms spread have increased thier Net-position. Now, normally we dont really pay attention to the spread as they are playing both sides of the plate. For example one company could be buying and selling the same currency. So, the Loonie might be stuck in a range this week so as a harmonic trader the CAD might be a pair I monitor closley as the Harmonic Trading strategy is best in a ranging market. The COT Net Data: Commercials- Current== 24,363 // Previous== 25,110 Non-Coms- Current== (25,486) // Previous== (24,829)
TVC:CXY
by ARegularGuy
3
usdcad broke a falling wedge!!!The loonie has formed a wedge during this week and yesterday it managed to break it; today there has been a retest on the trendline. 50 moving average in h4 is supporting the price action and I think that there are good chances for an upside leg whith 1.387 as a target. Ichimoku cloud (the "kumo") is now under the price and is offering support, kijun and tenkan sen are still moving sideways, so there is not a clear sognal yet but in my opinion if price does not close under 1.35 there will be a bullish leg. Use a stop loss, in the picture the risk/reward ratio is a bit over 2, anyway you can decide to use a tighter stop, it depends on your trading plan. Study H1 chart if you want a perfect entry.
Long
by Dragon_Investments
1
Up Comming week COT analysis COT Data CHF- Commercials have relieved their long positions giving rise to more producers (shorts) to move around. We had some commercials close their positions, but there were no more entered afterward. The shorts are still providing fuel to the Non-Commercials to drive prices higher and the Non-Commercials are happily taking the supply. There were 1280 new orders opened for the CHF with 747 of them coming from the Commercials adding to their short hedges. In regards to the net positions this is what I was looking for last week. On the COT index the major players just switched sides and I was wanting to see both sides add to their bias to kinda confirm what we see. in regards to net positions the commercials are Current (7754) coming from (6,846) this increase will provide more supply on the market driving price up as the producers are in charge at the moment. The non-Commercials are at 8989 coming from 8739 its only a mere 250 order change so it might seem like buying is drying up, and it very well could be but on the line items the shorts took off 132 orders (not adding Open interest) while the Longs added 118 orders (which will add to the Open Interest). So in a nut shell we see the CHF producers from the Commercials still producing so the Non-Commercials might be a bit slow to buy leaving it up to the non-reportables to save the day LOL. GBP- On the Pound the Commercial Consumers are still in control forcing the Pound to become cheaper. This is not some commercials delivering product and closing contracts there were 1488 added to the open interest. The Commercial Consumers added 12377 new order their long bias while the producers only added a 1/4 of that. Surprisingly 12,000 orders came off the table on the Non-Commercial side going from 39,000 orders to 26,000 orders while the shorts are still driving down price with 63,000 orders coming from 61,500 orders. When you look at the net side of things the Commercial Consumers are still buying up supply while the Non-Commercials are still driving price down. It takes along time for the big curriencies to turn around but I would expect to see some of the GBP major Pairs start to consolidate or turn around. CAD- The United States’ Unofficial but Official supplier of oil. When you look at the Export of oil from Canada on the invoice it says US. The CAD Dollar is in a very interesting place right now the Commercial are about to be battling it out of control and this is probably why the Non-Commercials have both closed positions without re-entering the market. The Commercial Consumers added 1100 positions to their already existing 77,000 orders while the Commercial Producers have added a whopping 4961 orders to their side driving up thier 41,000 to 46,000 while the Non-Commercial shorts took off 2800 orders and the longs took off 2000 orders. The Non-Commercial Shorts are still driving price down but the COT index is nearing the Zero line so we might be seeing a trend change which is something we can see with oil. The Black Gold has been slowly gaining value but it has struggled in the past few weeks. JPY- Japan is the world leader in exporting electronics supplying the whole world with just stuff. and knowing that the conductors in the electronics use platinum or palladium I suspect as the precious metals begin to rise again so will their economy , not including the uses of the metals in emissions pieces in vehicles which Is japans #1 export. What we have is the Commercials delivering on their contracts and not opening up any more so we might be seeing a trend change to support my “theory” (which is a very cavalier way of using the term) but we see the non-commercials still buying up the supply still available driving their orders from 57,000 to 62,000. We also see the Non-Commercial shorts want to play as well coming in from 23,000 to 29,000. This is probably stalling the yen a bit but I do think we are gonna see the yen get stronger here in the next few weeks if not months. But the Commercial Shorts are still by far in control with 100,000 orders short. Driving the yen up. I suspect the yen is not as strong as it should be is because the non-commercials are a bit hesitant to buy. Eur- the Euro is strong as he**. Selling the Euro is probably not the wisest moves as a trader unless you’re a hedger. The Open interest increased by 26,000 orders and the Shorts are 429,000 orders short driving the Euro up through the roof. Some of the Non-Commercials booked profit on the long side and Some of the Non-Commercial shorts booked some losses. The Euro is a strong buy at this point in time. The Supply is out there. There is a nice Eur/Nzd Trade I have been waiting on to get in and this Report gives me a better feeling about it. NZD- if you did not know the Kiwis are some cowboys with the majority of thier economy coming from cows, pigs, and other food products. This is probably why their nickname is “Kiwi” anyways the Kiwi is getting stronger and I might have to wait on my Eur/Nzd trade until the Kiwi weakens the longs closed out 1400 positions while the shorts added 1400. Same story on the non-commercials 2100 orders were put into the Kiwi Longs driving the currency higher. But I do have a hard time thinking the Kiwi is really out muscling the Euro but the candles don’t lie. But good news is Both sides are drawing nearer to the Zero Line… so the trade could be happening sooner than later. This is all for the COT Analysis for this coming week. I’m keeping some out for myself but here are the Major pairs and their reports as I see them Good Luck!
TVC:DXYLong
by ARegularGuy