Loonie
USD/CAD - FALSE BREAK AND A DOUBLE BOTTOM TRIGGERED FX:USDCAD
After testing the the original breakout low at 1.3030 the rate turned around and rallied back inside the previously broken rising channel thus creating a small double bottom formation.
It has also broken the short term falling trendline resistance, therefore my immediate bias is now higher.
I will be waiting for a pullback towards the broken double bottom neckline at 1.3175 to confirm the channel support is holding once again to target a possible move towards the channel resistance around 1.3570.
A break back below the neckline would invalidate my immediate bullish bias, however, only a daily close below yesterday's lows would turn me bearish on the pair again.
USD/CAD - THE NEXT LEG LOWERFX:USDCAD
Last week the rate broke it's 7-month-long consolidation channel. I am now looking for a small retracement higher or a short term consolidation pattern break to enter new short positions.
The November and December highs at the top of the channel can now be looked at as a double top pattern, so my first target is going to be 1.2730 (the 100% breakout target), but my longer term goal is the 5-year-long rising trendline support in the 1.2400-1.2500 area.
A break back above the broken channel's support above 1.3300 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias on the pair.
USDCAD TEXTBOOK WXY-PATTERN SHOWS BIG FALL IS COMINGThe chart says it all. 5 Wave impuls lower was followed by an impressive 10 month long textbook WXY correction pattern that is currently coming to an end.
Wait for the market to form a Lower High maybe around 1.3400 and enter a sell targeting the 1.25 lows.
Dont rush the entry, wait for it to form some kind of topping pattern on the 4H chart for example.
Note: on the montly chart there is a textbook spinning top forming. This is a very bearish topping pattern.
USD/CAD BREAK AND RETESTFX:USDCAD
The rate has broken the 2016 falling trendline and is now testing it as the new support. As it has formed a hammer at the former resistance and we are still trading within the rising channel I am more bullish here as long as we are trading above the former trendline.
The immediate attention should be turned to the 1.3575 level as the rate seems to have found a strong resistance there. A break back below the trendline would invalidate my immediate bullish bias, however, only a break below 1.3100 would turn me bearish on the pair.
We also have to monitor the Oil prices which has just broken the major 51.50 level and continued strength there may build a momentum for the loonie, dragging the USD/CAD down.
HKDCAD @ with 0.00% smallest moves (of 1482 pairs) in dec.`16Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
39 Currencies (12th Month Statistics) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
HKDCAD @ with 0.00% smallest moves (of 1482 pairs) in dec.`16Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
1482 Cross-Rates (12th Month Statistics) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
USDCAD testing long-term trend supportSo long as USDCAD trades above 1.31 this week, there's a case to be made for a bullish reversal on this trend line support (despite the recent spike in oil prices). If prices continue falling past 1.31 without any rapid sell-off, I will probably disregard this trend line. A strong break below would expose the 1.27/28 area in the near term. I would target 1.35/36 should prices reverse at the indicated support level.
USDCAD Medium term Trendline breakUSDCAD managed to break the medium term trendline that acted as a springboard from October. As long as we get a close below the trendline we target previous swing lows at the 1.3379 area and then support at 1.3300-1.3266 area. Please have a look at the related idea for a longer term possible outlook. A close above the downward sloping trendline means trouble for shorts