Get started

Loonie

USDCAD TTTIt's not over yet for the UC bulls. Fundamentally , market conditions have not changed too much despite the sell off in USD the last few weeks. Yes, data was disappointing, but in terms of U vs. C, these two items still remain: 1. Oil has yet to find a defined bottom. 2. Divergent policies banking between the USA and Canada. Though, I do believe we maybe reaching the tail end of this uptrend, there is nothing fundamentally significant so suggest that we will not see the peaks again nor surpass it. Technically speaking, moderate E. wave count suggests we are finishing wave 4 of a 5 wave impulsive. I was not sure how far we would fall in wave 4, but we have the following: 1. Ichimoku rejection 2. Fibo .382 rejection 3. Spinning top, RSI suggest majority of selling is complete Certainly, we may drop further, but I believe the price will maintain its long course through this pitchfork. Should the fork break convincingly, that will be the strong bear confirm. The ride back up will hopefully surpass peak 3. I do not believe it will hold at that price level for long, at which point begin looking for shorts.
Long
by Nantucket
Loonie TunesHope it drops sooner, this is just a simple clonage within this long term channel. Fundamental factors to consider, oil dropping further, BOC lowering interest rates this week, could wick out to 1.48. US bad data last minute revised GDP after market closed last Friday 1/15, if USD starts dropping this pair could just go sideways for a few weeks. The risk for loan defaults for the shale industry due to low oil prices are very high and has the Fed's attention, supposedly they have removed the mark to market rule for energy assets last Friday 1/15, allowing for these companies and banks to adjust their balance sheets accordingly so their borrowing bases do not cross below their existing debt. A similar situation occurred in 2008 onward with MBS, with the housing industry, allowing for home loans mark to market requirement to be removed, instantly making everything ok on paper (assets revalued back to date of origination instead of current market price) The point being, their could be a program similar to QE solving all of these energy companies, banks and sovereigns currencies problems with more money printing and purchasing oil futures and similar assets like energy stocks, such as the case with Mortgage Backed Securities Fed bailout. Not sure if the Fed's balance sheet could handle all of the new asset purchases, some member of the BIS network would be able to absorb the purchases on their balance sheet, maybe ECB, like a big QE rotation, or maybe they will just start a war, who knows. Oil needs to go back up or there will be a lot of problems. Not sure if the over supply could be bought up with policy moves, but who knows, just my loony tunes analysis :p
by brandonian
Loonie:Plenty of Canada data: U/C chooses channel or H&S pattern- Fundamental Analysis This week, Canada should play a main actor on the FX stage with plenty of economic data. - Canada GDP - RBC Manufacturing PMI - BOC Meeting - Canada Employement report I think those are last pieces of Canada in this financial year; after this week, BOC members would shut down their computers and book the ticket for Chirstmas holiday. Canada economic data in November were mixed with stronger expect of employment data and CPI but lackluster in Ivey PMI, Retail Sales and Wholesale Sales. Hence, I don't think BOC will do something in this meeting. It's very surprised if BOC talk about rate cut because there is no room for any rate cut; however, they will leave an open door for more measure if necessary. This financial year should end for BOC. - Canada employment report is important to watch, but it is released at the same time with NFP, likely it would be shadowed by US data. If NFP is positive, and Canada employment report is positive, market chooses NFP to react, if NFP is negative, and Canada employment report is positive, markets chooses Canada data, if both data are negative, market chooses NFP. Simply. The key point I want to talk is oil price. When SU-24 incident was over, market will back to the Fundamental to trade oil. The supply surplus is a biggest problem of OPEC currently; too many oil on the market right now, all oil export countries are trying to produce as much as possible despite of low price. Lower oil price, lower Loonie. Oil sends negative signals to Loonie, the only way to escape the impact of oil price is Canada shouldn't rely on oil industry, but it seems it's imposible. - Technical Analysis Last week, USDCAD tried to test the YEAR HIGH at 1.3450 but unfortunately the effort was failed. USDCAD was beat from the year high to below 1.3300 This week, with the return of data, I think USDCAD will try to retest YEAR HIGH one more time. I see an ascending channel I draw on the chart. And a potential head and shoulder pattern. So which one does Loonie choose to follow ? This is a tough question. I think to answer for that question, we should wait for two things: - Only USDCAD sets a firm stand above 1.3370 level, Channel is chosen. - Only USDCAD breaks the ascending channel, H&S is chosen. However, I like BUY than SELL USDCAD. I choose Channel. --------------------- F.B page: www.facebook.com tinyurl.com Web page: www.trackingforexsignals.com Twitter: twitter.com Contact: admin@trackingforexsignals.com Sforex Solution: Do the right thing – Think the right way
by Sforex
USDCAD H4 ABCD - simple as thatPotential AB=CD confluenced with low RSI(7) (actually very very low!) - I think somewhere here should be great time for bounce back. Limited support from S/R zones - couldn't find anything really strong. Also it should be noted that on higher timeframe there are some bigger correction 'objects' - one of them is 1.27 of ABCD of here - so there is some chance this fail, but still there will be another chance to enter trade on 1.27of AB (notice confluence with last bottom). Have a great weekend! Leszek
Long
by leszekstanislaw
1
USDCAD: Looking to short before the BoC news come outPrice has skyrocketed in the short term, but it's now up against a weekly downtrend mode resistance. The daily uptrend signal target has been exceeded ahead of time and it would seem like the right time to turn into a contrarian. Waiting for bearish signals to confirm this speculative bias. Rgmov is warning us already, showing no new highs diverging vs price. The profile shows it's slightly past the balance point, matching the weekly mode resistance area nicely. There is a daily uptrend in place, so tread carefully. Good luck! Ivan.
by IvanLabrie
15
USDCAD Long Trade Setup EstablishedThe US Dollar looks poised to continue higher against its Canadian counterpart after prices broke above resistance marked by Augusts’ swing top. It now looks like the pair is in the process of resuming the latest leg of its multi-year rising trend established from mid-May. Near-term resistance is at 1.3556, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis clears the way for a test of the 50% level at 1.3725. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1.3347 – now recast as support – opens the door for a challenge of the 14.6% level at 1.3218. Positioning now seems attractive for a USDCAD trade and longs can be taken, initially targeting 1.3556. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close below 1.3332. Look to book profit on half of the position and trail the stop-loss to the breakeven level once the first objective is hit.
Long
by unique4x