Loony
AUD/CAD Bearish Trend TradeThis pair some some strength for eventually trailing downward last week.
We don't have a kumo twist yet but we are approaching the bottom of the kumo here and I will be looking for a chance to short when/if we get a bearish breakout.
I've drawn my entry line at a level that corresponds with an important price level and a flat kumo area.
If we break that level we should continue downward to possibly test recent price structure lows.
I've drawn out a few partial take profit levels to aim for along the way as well. If we fail to get a bearish breakout, or if our confirmations change back to bullish, this setup may become invalidated
Looking for a return to the highsThe Loony seems well bid above ascending channel support and we are looking for a move back towards 1.36 over the coming weeks. Pair finished Friday higher, despite a stronger than expected Canadian jobs report and NFP miss.
Support is a daily zone stretching from 1.3170 down to 1.3080, with ascending channel support confluence at 1.3147 and counting. A daily close below the latter would invalidate the setup and turn us neutral, pending a breach of 1.3080.
Monthly Close Above 61.8 Targets 78.6 @ 1.4660USDCAD is on the warparth: December's close above the 61.8 Fib opens up the 78.6 Fib just below 1.4660. Pair has displayed incredible strength compared to other USD majors and shows no sign of stopping - momentum appears to have actually picked up in the first week of 2016. Expect a test of 1.4660 by the end of the month. The unlikely alternative, a reversal below the 2016 open (1.3815), would likely find support at former resistance, the 61.8 fib (1.3455).