TRADING DOWNTRENDThere is some useful information on how to spot high probability trades.
Best trade by shorting:
1h
- descending channel
- respecting EMA (red line)
- look for excess price
- always use stop/loss
Markets have inertia, so as far price starts respecting
20 EMA it will likely to do so.
At first it might not be clear that it a a downtrend. Maybe it is only a larger scale pullback. But when you notice 2 3 or even 4 formations of lower highs with respect of EMA, you might consider start selling those resistances.
Price will constantly try to reverse and break the channel, but most of the time it will fail, unless the trend is reversing or converting into the trading range.
RSI in selling is far less important in downtrend as it doesn't show precise divergences.
If someone prefers higher risk higher reward set-ups, instead of putting stop loss above previous lower high, they can wait for clear reversal candles (big black candles closing on its low and place their stops above them.
These kind of setups will play out less often but will be much more higher in reward comparing to risk.
For a long (counter trend) trade look for at least 3 pushes down with divergence from price in RSI.
- Watch MACD histogram ticking up
Smaller time frames 15min divergence from RSI can be used to time your traders better.
However, long positions here are short rallies with low R:R ratios.
Take profits without hesitation and fast.
3 or 4 times RSI divergence in 1h TF is high probability trade.
Understand that when there is maximum pain and it looks as if price will crash usually strong bulls are buying.
Furthermore you have strong evidence with multiple divergences, MACD crossovers and channel trend support.
Probability is there, however trader MUST be patient and not enter too early.
This is a common mistake and it causes exiting too early and at loss.
Enter on a 3rd or 4th diverging point (and lowest selling point (lower low) and be patient.
If it is still going against - scale in - it will most probably bounce sooner or later.
Remember, you only need several high probability trades to make a living.
For example I trade 20-30k positions and 3-5% is a comfortable living so be patient.
Is the trend going to last forever?
Obviously not.
more than 70% of the time downtrend channels break to the upside (at least for a short period of time) might even for a higher low).
There are two choices for a price eventually - reverse or for a trading range.
Watch bars closing above EMA and above channel.
Short with caution every time it forms lower lows after multiple RSI divergences.
Trend might be changing it's direction.
And can't stress enough - risk control and patience. Probably most two single important things for developing trader.
Good luck traders.
Any questions, don't hesitate to contact me.
