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XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on Barco(BAR) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below). Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade. My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength. My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions: the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength. The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value. ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values. The script shows a lot of graphical information: One green area represents one trade The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade. the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed) the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue How to use this strategy? Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR). Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters) Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock. Do the same for other stocks. Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades! Here are the parameters: Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20) Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100) Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120) Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20) Example for Barco (BAR) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing): Fast EMA Buy=16 Slow SMA Buy=80 Minimum Buy Strength=44 Fast EMA Sell=12 Slow SMA Sell=45 Minimum Sell Strength=82 Trailing Stop (#ATR)=9 Result: 7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy NetProfit: 386% #Trades: 7 %Profitable: 71% Buy&HoldProfit: 55%
EURONEXT:BAR
by XPl0RR
What is the job of a trend-following trader?The chart is not going to tell anyone whether to go long or short. I cut deeper than that. This post is about what I see as the job of a trader, who wants to be consistently profitable over a long time using trend following strategies. The following therefore excludes systems that tend to have fixed targets, such as harmonic trading and exploiting levels of support and resistance. Trend-followers usually do not have fixed targets as they do not know how far a trend would go before changing. My job as a trend-following trader is to do the following: Estimate probability of direction of future price movement based on a sound system of analysis. Engage losses but make them controlled and reasonable within a sound methodology. Exploit probability of price movement in a favoured direction by trailing the trend. Have realistic expectations of gain in any single trade relative to the Average True Range (or other suitably reliable measure of volatility). For trading situations where the Average True Range is high, stop-losses need to be acceptable and broad. Sometimes 2 x Average True Range is used as a rule of thumb. However, human judgement has to prevail. On occasions some instruments have a pattern of spiking deeply down or up, and recovering. For those a stop-loss of 3 x Average True Range may be better to avoid being stopped out. If 3 x Average True Range or even 2 x Average True Range is unacceptable as a loss I do not enter the trade. Too often new traders are spiked out and left behind. Average True Range varies by time frame and naturally so does visual appreciation of volatility. Make volatility your friend - and treat her with respect. Develop ' nerves of steel '.
Education
by Captain_Walker
CPHI Win or Fail? (Fib with RSI and Ghost bars)Lets see what next week will bring! After a recent check, the 14-day RSIfor China Pharma Holdings (CPHI) is currently at 65.41, the 7-day stands at 78.81, and the 3-day is sitting at 94.30.Many professionals agree that realizing a loss is just as important as picking a winner, so I've also included a potential loss area to point out my opinion of when to abort mission. Price Target is anywhere form 0.60 to 0.72 by mid week. The stock has returned 21.95% weekly, which was maintained at 9.59% in the 1-month period. I'm looking forward to the upside of that return!
AMEX:CPHIShort
by SoWaVvY
Stop Management using trend linesFirst I determine the gradient most important in the currency. I then look for parallels to this. I will enter when I get two touches on the line . I wait for the close price, to make sure that price does not spike down through the sloping line. (No Entry) Depending upon market activity I adjust my stop when price moves up to the next parallel. The closer the stop the more likely you are to get stopped out. Before I entered the trade above I must decide a number of things Is it better to hold BTC or another currency? Should I choose EOS or BCD? Note BCD outperformed EOS by a large margin Does it have a pattern that I can use to trade? Is my risk to reward greater than 5.? Will the entry happen when I am not at my computer? Can I actively manage the trade or will I be unavailable for a few hours? You can see why I exited this trade. The price is stair- stepping down along these ascending parallels. If is gains clear support I would once again consider an entry When traders have lost money in a currency, they often try to regain money in that currency. They then wait and wait for price to go back up. Then they say that there is a great team behind the currency and they are doing a big deal in two weeks that will change everything. Then they become a HODLer . They have changed the original intent of their purchase. On the other hand if you bought (with the PLAN of holding) ETH December 7 then in under 40 days you have 3.5X your value in USD I think that it is usually better to take a break for a few days. Then enter a different currency.
by a1Keith
The markets are there to make you feel stupid or brilliantMany a trader will have made their best analysis based on information at the time and then taken an entry position, only to find that the market does something unexpected. Price may move violently in the wrong direction i.e. not the favoured direction and comes close to a stop loss or actually stopping out the position for a loss. Now with hindsight a trader feels or thinks, " How stupid - I should have seen it coming. I shouldn't have done that. " This happens enough times to new traders. Seasoned traders live with it and have less such self-talk. I think it's important to acknowledge those feelings. These are partly thinking processes and emotional processes. New traders often feel demoralised after 10 or so failures in a row. " Am I doing something wrong? " - they may think. This is a reasonable question. It could be that something is wrong. However, nothing may be found wrong with one's methodology or application of one's personal rules - after a careful reassessment. It's good to check. The BTCUSD chart shows what is some sort of 'head and shoulders' pattern. It's not the best picture of it in the world but something is there. Wherever one takes a position in BTCUSD, it could be wrong. Why? The markets respect no one person. A proportion of traders will have taken a position in this and made some real profits. They will punch the air and with joy go, " YESSSS!! " From my long experience I've learned that 'feelings' of being right or wrong, actually bends the mind a trader. I'm speaking for myself quite clearly. Others may have similar experience. A feeling of being good after a string of wins, often creates a subconscious sense of confidence. Imperceptibly this can creep into future trades and then one realises some major losses. My own strategy is to try at best to reduce trading frequency and exert even greater diligence in entering trades after a series of wins. I aim to expect the unexpected. It's always a tad difficult when I get stopped out for a loss. But I repeat to myself that the stoploss is there to protect against the 'unexpected' - so it's not actually unexpected. It is a limit. It is the expected limit of price moving not in a favoured direction. There is no single path to 'a promised land' in trading. Traders can adopt different methods, different rules, and be consistently profitable. The largest obstacle which is difficult to train out a trader, is their own personal psychology . By this I mean things like attention to detail, biases, emotions, discipline etc. So in many ways feeling stupid or brilliant can affect our future decision-making in imperceptible ways. Traders can lose discipline after losses or big gains. Mark Douglas spoke about these sorts of things. The BTCUSD chart is not intended to attract thoughts on whether to go long or go short. I'm not really interested in whether the H&S is there at all or correctly drawn. I'm taking it beyond that. What happens next to traders who come out of this period - some bruised, some overjoyed? Trading is not about winning one trade or a small handful. It's about the long road ahead. I'm delighted if others can share their experiences.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
MONERO (XMR/ USD) FUTURE PRICE PREDICTIONS (KRAKEN) HEY GUYS I'VE DECIDED TO SHARE COINS THAT I'M CURRENTLY INTERESTED AND/ OR INVESTED IN. PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU WANT TOO. ANYWAY, BLUE LINES ARE MACRO RESIST/ SUPPORT LINES. PURPLE LINES ARE MICRO RESIST/ SUPPORT LINES. BLUE RESIST 1 WILL BE TESTED AT ~$370. IF PRICE ISN'T REJECTED UPTREND WILL CONTINUE AND TEST BLUE RESIST 2 AT ~$415. IF PRICE ISN'T REJECTED BLUE RESIST 3 WILL BE TESTED AT ~$440. ANY REJECTION WILL RESULT IN DIPS (BUY OPPORTUNITIES) BUT I DON'T KNOW THE DEPTH OF THESE DIPS. HAPPY HUNTING MY FRIENDS! ;>
KRAKEN:XMRUSDShort
by BladeCatcher2049
Smart Execution, intelligently use stops to maximize profitThis post is for all those who are asking about the progress of the holy grail project. There are many ideas that are being poured into the project that are making it more and more effective, but this is proving to be one of the more interesting ones. The idea of an adaptive stop loss is nothing new, trailing stops are super common, and many low latency methods employ some linear envelopes in the core of their stop loss methods. What the Holy Grail project is employing and may be somewhat new to the trading world is the idea of a stop loss function whose functional dependencies are dynamic in nature and rely on non-linear combinations. This is naturally accomplishable with the help of exponential smoothing. The Holy grail project had a problem that it would have too many neutral entries and exits, but now these can even lock in profits as they go. The next step will be to look at functional behavior that would warrant reentries, or some sort of stationary stochastic selection process of when to exit trades. Take a look at the plot above. The red line is the reference line, crossovers represent when to enter and exit a trade. The lime and teal lines are the Smart Execution Traces (SETs) and suggest when to exit. Exciting times!
by mcbw_
Selling Position - NZD/USDNZD/USD has rallied by more then 4/5% since May without a pullback. The signs I see is that a divergence has formed on the RSI and the stochastic indicating that its overbought on the weekly (You can see whenever the stochastic hits overbought levels there is a drop) and lastly it has broken through the more then 1 month old trend line and also struggled to breakthrough the resistance trend line which whenever it got tested it has dropped which you can see that a bearish candle has formed when it couldn't breakthrough. With all of these signs I feel that its a SELL .
Short
by Jamal92
Selling Position - CAD/JPYThe CAD/JPY pair has increased by more then 7/8% in a month. The RSI and Stochastic are indicating to me that its seriously overbought and its hitting a very strong resistance that has been around since 2015 so a correction will in order in with all these indication I feel that this is defiantly a sell. Keep in mind that the bank of Canada will more likely increase the interest rates on Wednesday which could cause a mild upside. The reason for me saying this is that this pair has increased 8% in about a month so the price could be already priced in.
Short
by Jamal92
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity? Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94.  The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services.  The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS. But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal.  Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities.  This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run. If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style. 1)      Short the stock Entry: any price today Stop: $130.31 on market close Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over 2)      Credit Spread Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment 3)      Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company. Until our next article.
NASDAQ:ADBE
by EdgeAnalytics
Buying Position - AUDCADThe support line has been tested 3 times and the RSI is indicating that this pair is oversold , You can clearly see that whenever the RSI hits those levels of oversold it shot up. I will set this pair for a buy and will hold unto this till around the 1.01600/1.06700 levels. P:S Fundamentals is also saying that there is a lucrative deal occurring for Australia in increasing there Iron ore output to countries like india which will strengthen the Australian currency.
Long
by Jamal92
Buying Position - AUDUSDThe daily candlestic k closed on a strong support which was around since the 18th of January 2017. I have left an order for a buy and will hold to this pair till around the 0.76000 levels . The RSI is also nearing the oversold mark which is another indication that a buy is in order P:S Fundamentals is also saying that there is a lucrative deal occurring for Australia in increasing there Iron ore output to countries like india which will strengthen the Australian currency.
Long
by Jamal92