AUD and NZD will continue to trade tight ranges after mixed data from NZ overnight. 📊 Chart of the day 📊is going to NZDUSD: Market is clearly presenting another very good opportunity to cover 0.664/6x and initially target 0.660x. In AUDUSD same drill as before, tracking 0.692x for a similar move back towards 0.685x lows in the range. This idea is no less...
Ending the week with instructive profit taking from bulls in exemplary fashion....Average hourly earnings disappointing but nothing to write home about. Highlights in the report going to manufacturing jobs getting crushed via protectionism and those maintaining longs now have a free hand to play the next short-term swing. I love it when USD goes for a walk....
AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent. On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to...
Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side: NZD is well...
Here we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than...
Lets get started... On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a...
A good time to update the AUD chart-pack after the updates from a dovish RBA. Soft on wages and consumption with emphasis on outlook reassessment in Feb. Unless we see the domestic story pickup dramatically in Australia it will continue to keep AUD stuck in low gear. Support is found here at 0.685x and sizes I’m seeing should be enough to carry us towards the...
Here we are tracking further downside in the cross as NZD strength continues across the board before AUD takes the wheel in 2020. Among the commodity currencies, NZD stands out the most into year-end and those following the macro updates in Telegram and charts will know I have also been sitting long NZDCAD, with a dovish BoC and RBNZ 'hawkish' surprise there...
Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY...
Gov Lowe speech Highlights: -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS INFLATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR SOME TIME, BUT THEN TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS STRENGTHEN -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS OUR VIEW IS THAT A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET REMAINS THE RIGHT MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK FOR -RBA GOV LOWE SAYS A FLEXIBLE MEDIUM-TERM TARGET IS THE BEST WAY...