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Lowerhigh

BTCUSD: Momentum May Be Slow, But Mid 6K Support Is The Focus.BTCUSD update: The bullish momentum has slowed once again, but that does not mean the bears are back in control. Yet. The 6565 area support is still in play along with a newly established inside bar. In this report I will evaluate both sides in an attempt to offer some perspective in terms of reasonable expectations. On the bear side, the trend line is still clearly intact. Price needs to push 7K in order to prove a broader recovery is in effect. With the lower high made at 6736, a lower low into the 5956 reversal zone is within reason. A break of the 6300 low will signal that the next leg lower is in effect. Certainly something to be aware of. On the bull side, the previous candle is an inside bar which can act as a long trigger as well. If the mid 6600's get taken out, a push to the high 6Ks to low 7Ks is also within reason. What gives this market a bullish argument is the price location. Fluctuating between 6565 and 6005 which are two major support levels, in conjunction with the broad support zone overlap. 8171 to 4983 is a very wide zone, but it is the .618 support area relative to the entire bullish structure going back to the 150 lows. Knowing the relevance of this large area offers perspective in terms of inventory building, not short term swing trading. If you are going to invest, or accumulate inventory, this range of prices is the most attractive area compared to buying at 10K for example. At S.C., we have been accumulating other coins along with BTC and writing about it. We also have a swing trade in ETH, so we are still betting on the long side. A ton of patience and flexibility is required though. Our short term plan is to shave off profits IF this market can come close to testing the bearish trend line. Any push into the extreme lows, like the 5656 or 5669 reversal zones will also prompt additional inventory building. Check S.C. for updates. In summary, like I wrote in yesterday's BTC report (on S.C.), these are hated markets right now. Buying volume will be lower, and recoveries slower, but it does not mean the long term merit of these markets has changed. Only the sentiment and excitement of the crowd has. Perfect for the contrarian who buys when the crowd unloads, and then sells back to them when they get excited at extreme highs. Part of being able to hang on to ugly markets is believing in the long term, and also being able to lose. I can't emphasize how important the losing part is. I had to learn the hard way that if you can't lose, you can never win. If safety is a big concern, you are in the wrong markets. It is that mentality that separates the strong hands from the weak.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
16
BTCUSD: Next Stop Low 6K's Unless Reversal Candle Appears Now.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is confirmed as price is now testing an important support level. At this time there are no signs or structures that say this market wants to retrace. That does not mean it won't, but the probability is low. Unless a bullish reversal candle appears, I am anticipating a test of the low 6Ks. I wrote about 6565 area in my previous BTC report on S.C. It is where buyers appeared back around the beginning of April. The only evidence that there is any buying now is the previous candle which is a bullish inside bar. As I wrote in my earlier report today on S.C., that was not enough to justify any risk taking, especially in the face of bearish structures like the trend line still in play. In order for this market to demonstrate that a broader bullish trend is more likely in progress, it has to take out the 7790 level. This is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. As long as this market continues to push lows, this level will continue to adjust. This level also serves as a reasonable target for short term swing trades. Even more reasonable than that is the low 7Ks where the bearish trend line is located. These are the areas we will be considering as targets if this market manages to establish a reversal off of current levels. In summary, markets that push dramatic lows will generate all kinds of extreme analysis, media reports and a lot of nonsense. Do not lose sight of the fact that price is probing the 8171 to 4983 large magnitude support zone. I understand it is too wide to draw any meaningful conclusions from in terms of short term timing, BUT it does tells us that if a broader reversal is going to happen, this is a very convenient area. In other words, I would not hold onto any shorts. Always be patient, and if you are holding inventory, stay focused on the big picture. Price can go as low as 5669 and still be in a good position to retrace sharply. These are attractive levels for inventory accumulation. Any adjustments to our S.C. portfolios will be made available there.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
25
ETHUSD: Support Zone In Play. Waiting For Reversal Formation.ETHUSD update: As the BTC market retraces, the alts follow as usual. This market and Litecoin are now both in very interesting areas for possible swing trade and inventory ideas. The key is to wait for a sign of stability which is absent at the moment. It seems like BTC is in free fall. From 7600 to the mid 6K's in one day can feel a little dramatic. As long as 6K holds, it is nothing more than a shake out. And as weak hands are being shaken out of BTC, they are also being shaken in the alts like this market. Remember, as a price action trader, I do not care why. I only care about what is more likely to happen next and at current levels, a bullish reversal is much more probable. 544 to 464 is the .618 of the recent bullish structure measured from the 374 low. Overlapping the lower level of the area is the 458 reversal zone boundary. IF a bullish reversal can establish itself within this area, a swing trade long idea would be in order. At S.C. that is the area we are monitoring closely for our followers. IF price keeps pushing lower which is also very possible and no reversal appears, we simply do nothing. Eventually stability will return and we can then continue our evaluation from there. There are still two significant bearish structures in place. The trend line and the 625 level which I wrote about extensively on S.C. and on here in recent articles. As long as these structures are in play, it is unreasonable to expect any serious bullish action over the long term at this point. If a swing trade idea develops, it will have a conservative target to compensate for the limited short term bullish potential. Overall, as long as this market stays above 374, then this price action is just a normal corrective move. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for a broader higher low formation as well. You can follow along while most of our articles are freely available.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
BTCUSD: Weak Hands Get Shaken As Price Enters Support Zone.BTCUSD update: Finally some movement. Looks like the the bears rejected the minor resistance area that I wrote about in my previous report. Even though it may look concerning, this move is welcome because it brings the opportunity of a swing trade long idea that much closer. The 7330 to 7212 support zone is relative to the .618 area of the recent bullish structure. There was also a minor reversal zone boundary in the 7400's that got blown right through. The point of knowing these levels is not to expect price to simply reach one and turn, rather it is to be prepared in case a reversal sign appears. I always tell my readers, one of the steps in the trade process that we employ at S.C. is evaluating predetermined levels. This is dramatically different from "predicting" moves which so many are still bent on doing. We don't predict, we measure probability. In my report yesterday on S.C., I wrote that even though price action had established some bullish structure, the problem was it was climbing right into a resistance zone. I even wrote that it could have broken above, but the probability favored bears. The main reason is the 8100 area resistance which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. And here we are, 300 points lower. Again I did not know this was going to happen, but I did know to avoid any longs in that resistance area. Best practices dictate to buy supports, not resistances. Speaking of supports, now price is finally revisiting some interesting levels. The key is to WAIT for a reversal pattern to materialize for a swing trade. Even though potential still favors the bear side on the short term, a bounce off current levels can reasonably take price back up into the 7500s or higher. Certainly worth risking 150 points for. Besides that, another bounce off this general area will only add more emphasis to the 6K area broad higher low formation. Overall, be patient and if you are really feeling aggressive, the 7200 to 6904 area is a great place to accumulate inventory. Keep an eye out on S.C. because this is where we will share any portfolio ideas. Otherwise, on the short term, now is the time to start paying attention to levels like the mid to low 7200s, 7K and 6904 for reversals. If the market can meet our criteria, a swing trade long idea will be in order. We don't know if the market will reverse, but we will be prepared if the opportunity presents itself. All the information we need is in the price action.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
38
LTCUSD: The Levels We Are Looking To Buy Are Lower.LTCUSD update: Tight consolidation as this market waits for BTC to choose a direction. There is a lot of structural conflict in this area and the best thing to do is let these markets figure themselves out. There are no worthwhile signals to capitalize on anyway. As you can see on the chart, price rejected the 128 reversal zone boundary. It has also found support off of the 117 to 113 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). An adjusted bullish trend line is still in play which means as long as it holds, price can still grind higher. Even though this may be the case, there are no long setups to talk about. And as long as the 138 resistance level (.382 of broad bearish structure) stays intact, it is not reasonable to expect a sustained rally any time soon. In times of price conflict, the best thing to do is avoid trading. Even on the inventory building side, these are not low enough prices to make them attractive. Also keep in mind BTC is still fluctuating near a resistance zone which means there is still more bearish potential than bullish. At S.C., our plan is to see if these markets offer opportunities by retesting significant lows. In this market those would be the 113 or sub 108 areas. If price can develop reversal candles in these areas, a swing trade long idea may be in order. Otherwise we are not initiating any new longs. Quiet markets are good for two things: researching undervalued high potential alts and quietly accumulating them. You want to buy them when the herd is not excited or not looking, NOT when they are being hyped by every coin blog in existence. On S.C. we always make it a point to write about the ones that we see the most potential in. Instead of getting caught in forced trades, research your next possibility.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ONT/BTC, Lower High Buy Zone!Hello again! Did you sell your coin in the zone of my previous analysis ? :) ONT hit our higher high zone a little, but it's ok for me. Been laddering my sell on 11,4k satoshi, and now i am ready to fill my bag again. I started to sell it because i saw the bearish divergence on 4 hour, thats how i play. My scenario is wait the coin stabilize at the lower high zone. If it can hold, then i will laddering my buy, but if it break the rising channel then i will wait for the next bigger swing game. Much love for this coin, the volatility is our friend :D. Don't forget to follow me! :D Tip jar here: BTC: 1NprKbTvkyLKzpSg556eRj6XubiJEhw95r ETH: 0xbda06337bf410110c1ccddea8f6111a6c2f4f8f6
Long
by bags467
BTC Equilibrium Until July If you are long this is the only chart you need. BTC has been in the same Equilibrium Pattern for the last few months. We have had a series of Higher Lows and Lower Highs. The pattern is really beginning to tighten as we get closer and closer to a bullish breakout. Volume from the bears is waning as the pattern tightens. I fully expect a breakout in early to mid July. Buying opportunities can be found at the bottom of the trend line, for both BTC and any Alts you may be looking to accumulate. Happy Trading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by StatFall
3
ETHUSD: Lower High Established. 544 Support Now In Focus.ETHUSD update: Lower high scenario is unfolding as anticipated. The 625 resistance, although slightly broken, basically held and now the bears are in control. The next support area to watch for any bullish reversals is 544. I have been writing about this retrace. My BTC report on S.C. yesterday talked about the slow grind into the bear zone. It is not that I knew this pull back was going to happen, I knew the probability was high. Knowing this helps me to avoid long swing trades in these markets, especially when they appear to be "breaking out". The 625 level is the .382 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure. Until this level is decisively taken out, this market (along with the rest of the coins) are going to have a hard time making any bullish progress. The question now is: how low do they go and when to buy? The first level we are waiting for at S.C. is the 544 area. 544 to 464 is the .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish structure coming from the 374 low. A reversal candle in this area will more than likely justify a new swing trade idea. If price falls through the mid to lower 500's, then the 471 reversal zone boundary becomes the focus. If price is going to reverse higher, this price area offers the greatest probability for it to follow through. Remember, a bearish trend line is still intact which means short term bullish ideas offer less potential. This is why we exited our recent swing trade so early on S.C. We are not opposed to longs, but they will come with more conservative targets. In summary, be patient and do not mix up strategies. Inventory building is dramatically different from short term swing trading. It is possible to be bullish long term (inventory) and bearish short term (swing or day trading). If you find this confusing, that is normal. It took me many years to differentiate between the two styles. Still confused? Pick one style and stick to it. At S.C., our short term plan is to wait for the 544 to 464 support zone and evaluate price action from there.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: Lower High Formation In Progress. Watching For 7335.BTCUSD update: This market is in a slow grind right into a resistance area. As I wrote earlier on S.C., it may look inviting, but only if you want trouble. The 7896 resistance defines the bearish reversal zone which price is just under. If price is going to fake out, it is most likely to do so near this area. The more attractive area is the 7335 to 7213 minor support which is the .618 area relative to the current bullish swing. We don't know if price is going to retrace back here, but if it does, we will be looking for bullish reversal candles. In summary, just because price is moving slowly higher does not make it any safer to enter. Let the market present a sensible opportunity. The worst thing you can do is force a trade. We have been reiterating this idea over and over again over the series of new articles that have been coming out. Wait it out, a more attractive reward/risk opportunity will eventually appear.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
LTCUSD: Resistance Levels Still In Play. Waiting For 114 Level.LTCUSD update: All of these coins are in a tough spot. They are in one of those situations where they may continue to rally just a little further. Usually they rally just enough to attract all of the anxious longs who could not hold out any longer. Once they are all in, the market now has enough gasoline for the potential selling momentum that can lead to the next bearish retrace. In my earlier article on S.C., the point that I made about this market was that it is not in a good position to buy. With the 128 reversal zone boundary near and 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) there is only higher risk of retrace if price explores these areas. Why buy near these short term highs when there is much better potential and probability at lower prices? The question is, how do we know the lower prices will we tested? We don't. We only know two things: IF price goes back into the 114 area, that is a price we anticipate support. If price over reacts and tests the 109 level, then that is an even more attractive area to accumulate inventory and put on a swing trade. Those are two scenarios that offer a better probability than the current situation. Remember consistent performance comes from planning ahead, and selecting opportunities that offer higher probability and better reward/risk. Since these opportunities are filtered by particular criteria, they are not frequent. This is why we would rather miss moves than participate in random price action. Random may pay you now, but it will rob you in the long run. At S.C., we employ a number of strategies to capitalize on sentiment and price momentum across many markets, not just the coins. Quiet markets are perfect for researching other instruments or strategies in preparation for the next opportunity. Check out our portfolios on S.C. to get a better idea of what I mean, and also a good reference for a starting point.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
ETHUSD: No Retrace? No Trade. Waiting For Better Setups.ETHUSD update: Indecisive price action around a potential lower high formation. Since price has not taken out the 625 resistance level, I have no choice but to expect more from the bear side. As I wrote in my ETH article on S.C. earlier today, 625 is the .382 area of the current bearish structure. As long as price stays below this level, it is more likely to consolidate or test lower prices. Long term, I am bullish on this market as well as the other major coins. It is at times like this when it is important to also recognize the short term price action since it is very helpful for staying out of trouble. Based on the current structure, there is no reason to do anything at these levels. I am not going to add to any long term inventory, or take any short term trades. Like I wrote earlier, there is no advantage to taking any risk at these levels. I do not short these markets, so I can only consider risk from the long side. At S.C., we are waiting to see IF these markets choose to retest the lows. The high probability level for us is the low 500's into the 471 reversal zone boundary. Remember, we do not know if price will retest this area, but we are prepared if the opportunity materializes. We don't predict, we play probabilities. In summary, quiet times in the market are great times to prepare. Research other coins, check out our portfolios at S.C. and see how we are building inventory. When the market offers more attractive prices, we are prepared with a plan. What is your plan?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: Bearish Trend Line Encourages Test Of Low 7Ks.BTCUSD update: Price action is some what quiet near the most recent peak. There is an inside bar now present on this time frame which can turn into a sell signal quickly. As I wrote in my report on S.C. earlier today, the bearish trend line is still in effect. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. This market is in a tricky area. If buyers hold up, price can produce a shallow higher low and squeeze higher and break the bearish trend line. If price takes out the 7413 inside bar low, that can invite further bearish momentum which can take price back to the low 7Ks. Based on the technical structures in place, it appears price is more likely to lean more toward the bearish side on the short term. I am all for being bullish, but two things need to happen in order to prove this market is in a sustained rally. First, the trend line needs to be cleared. Second, the 8185 resistance level needs to be taken out. This is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Keep in mind price can go as low as 6904 which is the reversal zone boundary and still be in a position to reverse sharply. It is a matter of waiting for the price action to confirm. In my earlier report on S.C., I also compare inventory building with swing trading. If this market pushes the 7K low, there will be an opportunity for both types of strategies. In summary, at this point I am just waiting for the next swing trade while accumulating other coins for long term inventory. S.C. is where I will share the next trade idea for this market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
LTCUSD: New Low Or Double Bottom Formation?LTCUSD update: After a slight retrace today, it appears the coins are poised to retest their recent lows. As I wrote in my earlier ETH report on S.C., there is no reason to be stuck hoping. If a sell signal appears earlier than expected, then it is time to adjust. My recent ETH swing trade long was exited for a smaller profit. I wrote about a bearish trend line that is still in play. Litecoin has the same situation. 124 is the location of the bearish trend line and price has rejected it. Here is one paragraph of my LTC report that I published on S.C. earlier today: "Keep in mind the 138 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure) is what price needs to compromise in order to prove that bullish momentum on the larger magnitude is in effect. Until this occurs, bullish potential is limited and why it is a good idea to be conservative with swing trade profit targets when the next buy signal appears." There is also a bearish reversal zone boundary defined by the 128 level. As long as this lower high formation stays intact, it is reasonable to expect a retest of the low 100s. In summary, as price attempts to revisit the recent low, we will be watching for reversals. Particularly in the 105 to 100 support area. This is where the highest probability exists for a bullish pattern. The idea is to capture a piece of the next retrace higher, and possibly hold if it evolves into a larger time frame trade.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
AUDUSD: Bears Can Take This Market To .7400 Or Lower.AUDUSD update: Although this pair has demonstrated some recent strength, it is still being dominated by bearish momentum. Along with the other U.S. Dollar crosses, this market is likely to push the .7400 area low. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. The high at .7605 is the most recent peak which is relatively lower than the previous high around .7813. A short term retrace such as the one off the .7400 area low can be confusing or even tempting to buy. Keep in mind, timing minor higher lows is a feasible strategy but only for day trading in my opinion. Since the bigger picture momentum is bearish, it is possible to capture maybe 30 pips on an intraday retrace, but you must be on top of it since potential is more on the bear side. Often, the higher probability strategy is to either wait for price to retest a resistance again which is around the .7563 area (.382 of recent bearish structure). Or wait for a continuation pattern such as an inside bar for an entry on the side of the momentum. The first potential target for a short is in the .7450 area. The second is the .7374 reversal zone boundary. These levels offer an idea of how low this market can go if a short signal appears. In summary, knowing the reward/risk potential of your time frame is key to choosing a trade. When counter trend setups appear, they carry much greater risk since so much is working against you. If you take the higher risk trade, you must compensate with more conservative targets and smaller time frames in order to increase your chances of coming out with a profitable trade. This is the realm of the day trader and is not a good idea for the less experienced trader, especially in the forex markets. I am watching this pair for a swing trade setup on the short side, but there is nothing to report yet. I will issue the signal on S.C. if anything worthwhile appears.
by MarcPMarkets
3
BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern And Next Support Around High 6Ks?BTCUSD update: Price is consolidating across the board and is poised to break lower in my opinion. While bearish momentum dominates in the short term, triangle formations such as the one developing in this market serve as continuation patterns. If I shorted these markets (which I do not), I would be looking for a day trade at the break of 7312. This is just below the low of the previous candle which is an inside bar. What makes situations like this difficult is when you are bullish on the long term. This is why it is so important to separate trade ideas by time frame. This means it is possible to be bearish on a day trade time frame, while simultaneously bullish on a swing or position trade time frame. At S.C., we are long term bullish and are accumulating inventory across a variety of coins during this period of crowd pessimism. There are a number of articles there that explain which coins and our reasoning. Since I am able to separate and categorize my thinking in terms of time frame and strategy, I am able to recognize the short term intent which is not in line with the bigger picture. On the short term, this market is dominated by bears. If price breaks below 7312, I am anticipating the mid 7100's to high 6900's before the next support asserts itself. Keep in mind, price is within a broad support zone that ranges from 8171 to 4983 (.618 support of entire bullish structure relative to the 150 lows). This means it has a lot of room to fluctuate before another low is established. In summary, long term not much has changed. When the crowd hates a market, that is a great time to accumulate at wholesale prices. This does not come without risk though. Someone recently asked me, when you accumulate, where do you place the stop. These are risky instruments that are in a space that is not regulated that same way as traditional markets. If you are in it for the long term, then it is all about risk control though appropriate sizing and the willingness to lose. If you can't lose, you can't win in these markets. As far as the next swing trade long goes, there is no reason to be long at the moment. We will issue a signal for a swing trade long, with specific stop and target on S.C. once the market provides us with a good reason. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
LTCUSD: Nearing Buy Trigger. Why The Limit Order?LTCUSD update: Price retreating from the 140 level as the noise in the coins continues. Now that a second lower high has been established, converging trend lines can be drawn to indicate a descending wedge. Formations like these around significant support zones are places to look for strength. If you read my recent LTC article on S.C., I issued a specific trade call using a limit order under the market. I made this call while price was trading above 137.84. My limit order (see S.C.) still stands. How did I know the market would pull back? I didn't. I am looking to capitalize on a very specific condition that either the market will express, or not. Since BTC has been very noisy recently, I figured let's see if the noise persists. I do know that 132.72 and 125.68 are reversal zone boundaries. These are high probability support areas that price is more likely to find support and retrace from. If I am going to buy with a blind limit order, I would rather do it closer to these levels. The other factor that helps me place an order like this is something called patience. I do not care about missing moves, because I know that opportunities in any financial market are infinite. If the market blew through 140 and never looked back, then I miss the move. Am I losing anything? If you said yes, then you still have much to learn. At this point, the order has never gotten filled. Missing the move is still a possibility, but as you can see, there is a better chance it gets filled soon. Like I wrote on S.C., focus on probability, not profitability and you will find yourself in better trades. If I get filled, I know there is a higher probability that price will find support nearby and retrace toward the 150 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). I would rather take the risk in the low 130s than at 140. Jumping into a market for the fear of missing a move is a reactive decision. These impulsive decisions are at the core of the herd mentality. Greed and fear are what drive order flow and in order to capitalize on this nature, you must not think in the same terms. By placing an order under the market, I am positioning to benefit from this irrationality. Keep in mind, I can still be wrong and the market can continue much lower, but that is why I have a stop in place. Check S.C. for updates this market.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
LTCUSD: Lower High Points To Attractive Support Area.LTCUSD update: Lower high formations across the board imply further weakness in these markets. As bearish as this price action may appear, it is a welcome sign for the next swing trade long. The lower high established at 153 is concerning if you are long, but if you saw my recent long term Elliott Wave count that I published on S.C., you will see that the level to really be concerned about is 105. The current bearish retrace is still within a price area that is attractive for broader time horizon longs. The current price has two important levels in play. The 132 and 125 reversal zone boundaries which act as supports. IF price attempts to push lower and fails, that sets up the scenario for a short squeeze. Often these fake outs shake out the weak hands and offer an opportunity to buy from these reactive traders. Keep in mind, IF price does in fact fall through, then these markets are more likely to retest major lows like 105 in this case. In summary, the best thing to do in situations like this is to think like a contrarian and let the market prove itself. If it does prove strength, you should have a plan of action prepared. If it pushes below 125 decisively, then stand aside. If you are managing inventory, there is not much you can do except lighten your position if it is causing you stress. You can always get back in when the market stabilizes. Being mindful of the amount of risk you are exposed to should be your top priority.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
EURUSD – Will Favour Wait for a SHORT to form !A: SUMMARY – Will Position for a SHORT !!. >Month Chart in Downward Channel.. >WEEKLY Chart – FAVOUR a Breakdown of Channel Line 1-WOULD Watch EURUSD Rise up to FIBS 38.2% (1.20503) OR FIBS 50% to FIBS 61.8% ( 1.21190 to 1.21877). DAY CHART : B: This Coming WEEK Analysis: - WAIT for A SHORT Position 1- H4/H1 entry around ZONE 1.20503 (FIBS 38.2%) OR 1.21190 to 1.21877 (FIBS 50% to 61.8%) 2- WATCH for CANDLE Signal / Lower High Exhaustion Candle 3- PREPARE SHORT !! CHEERS .. Stay Nimble-TRADE SAFE !! Let The MARKET DO Its Work-Watch -Stay NIMBLE !!
Education
by jeffreyysl
EURUSD: Wave Overlap Signals Broader Count Adjustment?EURUSD update: Recent price action has been more dramatic since the U.S. dollar has gained strength in recent weeks. It is always a good idea to zoom out during such movements to see how the broader technical outlook is being affected. The most notable change on the broader time frame is the fact that the 1.1955 level was compromised. This is important because it alters the long term Elliott Wave count for this market. According to the rules of an impulse structure, the Wave 4 retrace cannot overlap or enter into the area of Wave 1. On this chart, the primary degree Wave 2 has been adjusted since originally I had it labeled as a Wave 4 of the cycle degree Wave V. In terms of overall trend, the direction is still bullish, but the behavior of a Wave 2 can mean this market has more room to go lower in the near term. It can go as low as the origin of Wave 1 which is in the 1.1550s. Keep in mind, fundamentals drive these markets and one interesting observation that I made when comparing to the GBP or AUD, is that those markets were showing a broader bearish wave count all along while this market was the opposite. Pin pointing an exact reason for this kind of technical conflict is complicated and unnecessary for the type of trading that we do at S.C. anyway. As of now, the immediate momentum is bearish, even in the face of this minor bullish retrace. Price can go as high as 1.2050 (.382 of current bearish structure) before it turns and attempts to test the low. In order for us to issue a long signal at S.C., there has to be a number of structural criteria in place which are not present now. In summary, do not be confused or frustrated when an Elliott Wave count is adjusted. Elliott Wave offers a possible technical road map for a financial market. It does not offer precision, only a possibility that market forces either adhere to, or they don't. It minimizes the number of possibilities into a more practical amount which offers less randomness and more predictability in the long run. If fundamental forces ultimately lead this market along a more bearish path, there will be plenty of signs and adjustments along the way to better anticipate trading opportunities either way. Price discounts all known information in the world at any given moment, and that is why a fundamental analyst and a technical analyst can eventually arrive at the same conclusion. This means you don't always have to know why a market is moving the way it is. Price action offers enough information to make informed decisions, especially for short term strategies.
by MarcPMarkets
1
AUDUSD: Bearish Momentum Takes Price Into Broad Reversal Zone?AUDUSD update: The Dollar is clearly strong across the board, obviously driven by fundamental forces that are weighing on the dollar pairs where it is the counter currency. When it comes to locating swing trade opportunities, it begins with predetermined levels which is part of the best practices that we follow at S.C. When you have a direction in a market as decisive as this one, it is still important not to react, especially when no setup is present. Situations like this offer the opportunity to plan ahead. Momentum is bearish so it is tempting to just open a short position and hope for the best, but if you consider where price is at the moment, you may think twice when it comes to putting on a swing trade. .7500 is a previous low and important psychological support. .7315 is the reversal zone boundary that is proportionate to the .7500 low. Even though bearish momentum is dominant. price is in a high probability reversal area. Knowing this puts you a step ahead of the reactive herd. There is no reversal in place, yet, but if the structure materializes, this is an attractive area for a long swing trade. IF a failed low formation appears, along with a pin bar or some other trigger, a lower risk long opportunity can present itself, even in the face of bearish fundamentals. The first target to consider is the .7579 level (.382 of current bearish swing). Again, this idea is only relevant if a reversal shows up in the current range that is defined by the .7351 boundary. When there is no setup, there is no trade, no matter how obvious a market looks. Levels and setups are the building blocks of a trading plan and having a method or process to define these structures is key. At S.C. a signal is not issued unless a particular set of criteria is met which means we will let a market go without us if there is no setup. Having a process such as this helps to minimize emotional tendencies and puts you in the position to anticipate rather than react. Follow along at S.C. and see how we apply this simple philosophy across many markets.
by MarcPMarkets
1
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 19Hello everybody. I apologize for my long absence I have been extremely busy. I hope I can continue now making daily TA's of Litecoin. I have not been watching LTC / crypto closely for the last few weeks and I have sad to see we are still stuck in bearish territory and especially LTC stuck in the low $130's. We are approaching critical support areas right now. If we dip below $125, then we have broken our main support from last huge drop to $106. If this happens, then it is possible we can see the mid $110's again, and even a retest of that price point. For the last two days, we have just been bouncing off our support and resistance. This is a classic pattern of lower highs and Lower lows. If we continue like this, then we can see a key test of our main support sometime tomorrow / early Friday. If we stick to this pattern, we can expect a quick bounce off of the upper $127's / lower $128. We will then see a bounce back up into the $134's, in which we will fall back down to testing our main support. To break out of this falling pattern, we need to first break the last resistance touched, which was $139.20. If that occurs, be aware of a possible bull trap, but if we have the volume following it, and manage to break $144.50, then the pattern can be confirmed broken. I really do not want to see our main support broken, but this can be a great buying opportunity because if it is broken, I don't see it staying that low for long at all. Remember to keep an eye on on the Stoch Rsi and the BB to give you an idea on which way LTC / other cryptos might be heading depending what time period you are looking at. Please check out my previous day TA's in the related ideas section and like/follow me if you would like to stay updated on my daily TA's. Thank you everyone.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir