Get started

Lowerhigh

BTCUSD: Not That Weak? Quiet Market Offers Clues.BTCUSD update: 9616 level was compromised but bullish momentum did not take hold. As long as this market can stay above the 8342 low, it will still have a chance to break higher. In my previous BTC report, I highlighted the 9616 break out level which is the .382 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish swing. Price pushed it, and failed. Is this a bearish sign? The fact that price pushed through, even though not followed by bullish momentum is still a sign of strength. A break of this level does not guarantee follow through, it acts as more of a heads up. As long as price does not fall below the recent swing low of 8342, it is setting up for a bullish move in my opinion. Remember if this market was really weak, it would be making bearish progress quickly. This can still happen, especially if a more significant catalyst comes out and pulls the rug from under this price action. The fact that it is holding above the 8659 level indecisively is a sign of strength especially in the face of Goldman Sachs' attempt to talk it lower. IF the current candle closes in its present configuration (inside bar) then what happens next will provide a much better clue as to where this market is going. A break above 9482 will establish a higher low, which can lead to a retest of the 10422 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). IF bearish momentum increases, and price closes below 8342, then I would expect a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support. Aren't lower highs like the one at 9900 a sign of weakness? Yes, often lower highs are followed by lower lows, but when in range bound environments such as this, the chances of a fake out are much more likely compared to a decisive move lower. This is especially the case when price is sitting above a number of overlapping support levels. In summary, as I have mentioned before, when conditions are unclear, let the market show its hand. When questioning the market, valuable information is gathered not only from what the market is doing, but also from what it is NOT doing. Even though this market may look weak to the casual observer, it is not pushing lows which to me is a hidden sign of strength. Don't be mislead by uneventful conditions because more often than not, that is where opportunity exists. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Weaker Than The Rest? Watch 824 Support.ETHUSD update: Price action has been under performing the BTC market in terms of the recent bullish move. This market did not break its overall bearish trend line, and has formed a minor lower high at the 955 level. This means short term bearish momentum is in effect which decreases the likelihood of the 824 support holding. Lower highs often lead to lower lows. As BTC and LTC showed some considerable bullish structures in their respective movements, this market has not. The 1004 to 1114 resistance level (.618 of recent bearish structure) has never been compromised, and the bearish trend line that was established during the fourth week of Jan is also still intact. On top of that, a new minor lower high at 955 lead to the bullish trend line break while price is now testing the 824 level which is the .382 support of the recent bullish swing. These observations are all signs of short term weakness and this bearish momentum can persist until a reversal structure unfolds. At the moment, price is within the 872 to 739 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure) which is a convenient area for such a reversal, but until it appears, I would hold off on any new long positions. A break of the 824 level, and this market is more likely to retest the 739 support zone boundary. Again the key to using these levels is what to reasonably anticipate. The type of momentum that is taking this market lower needs to be counter acted with structure like a mini double bottom or higher low. A simple candle reversal will not be enough because there are too many bearish signals in play. Do not be confused by the different magnitudes. It is possible to have short term bearish momentum within a longer term bullish structure. If you are looking to build a long position in this market, the objective is to wait until price action realigns with the bigger picture, and at the moment it is in a convenient location to do that. My concern with the bigger picture is the 973 lower high which can lead to a larger magnitude lower low. I am not saying it will happen, but because of this structure, there is an increased chance that the 670 level or lower can be retested. In summary, interpreting the price action is not the same as reacting to it. I am using these bearish observations to better determine how to position myself for a position trade long, especially since I do not short these markets. Compared to the other major coins, this market is acting weaker and for that reason, I will require much more validation before taking a position. The predetermined levels and areas offer price locations to anticipate bullish reversals, but there is no guarantee that they will appear. By having a flexible mind set, I can acknowledge the immediate market intent while waiting for it to unfold in the way that conforms to my position trade entry criteria. If it never meets my criteria, I simply sit it out. I always talk about buying weakness, which you can do aggressively or conservatively and I make this decision based on market conditions. If price is aggressively selling into a reversal zone, I will be more aggressive and buy right into it with a small position and wait for stability before building the rest of the position. If price is selling in an orderly fashion like it is at the moment, I would rather be much more conservative and wait for the momentum to show clear signs of change. There is no "right" way to do this, it all depends on your general outlook, your plan, your risk tolerance and the time horizon of the position you are looking to put on. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Poised For Retrace. Back To 7Ks? Or New Low?BTCUSD update: 8427 resistance decisively broken, so where is the steep rally? A retest of supports is necessary to "prove" that the bears are no longer in control. At the moment, a shooting star candle formation is unfolding just after pushing the 8427 level that I have been writing about. And if this candle closes in this configuration, it is a bearish sign. Keep in mind this period has at least 10 more hours before the candle is official. The close will more than likely determine if this market is going to retest a lower level, or continue the initial rally leg that has been building since the Senate hearings on Tuesday. One of the basic tenets of technical analysis is that markets trend. Trends occur on every time frame and carry different weights. A 1 minute trend is much less significant than a 4 Hour trend, etc. Over the previous month, the intermediate trend has been bearish, while the bigger picture is still bullish. This can be confusing and is why it is so important to know what time frame you are looking to operate on before taking any trade. In order for this intermediate bearish trend to break, the market needs to fail to make a new low and instead, take out a previous peak. This is a process, not a single event. 8171 to 4983 is a major support area (.618 of entire bullish structure) but does not guarantee a reversal will materialize. One scenario that will signal the return of strength before it is obvious is what I call the broader higher low formation. "Broader" means it must happen on a large time frame like a daily or 12 hour. A convenient support area for this higher low is the 7149 to 6677 minor support zone (.618 are of current bullish swing). If price retraces from the current pin bar, I will be watching this minor support zone for bullish reversal patterns. Since the 8427 resistance was compromised, I am anticipating that there is a greater chance the minor support holds. A bullish reversal off of this zone should then lead to a higher high if the market is changing direction. Keep in mind, a broader higher low does not necessarily lead to a new bullish trend. This market may become more range bound before the bigger picture reasserts itself. The focus is to observe the signs and anticipate the most immediate move relative to your time frame and adjust accordingly, not to "predict" the broader moves of the market and feel good about being "right". In summary, this market is not out of the clear yet. IF the minor support in the high 6Ks is broken, this market may retest lows. IF the support holds, then anticipate the next resistance to be compromised and adjust accordingly. I am playing the bigger picture and in a situation like this, my choices are to add to my position, decrease my position, or do nothing. Since I am sticking to my bigger picture plan, I will not be shaken by a new low, I will just hold on to what I have and wait until the market shows a more supportive environment. This is not that difficult to do because my position is not margin based. I compare it to holding physical gold as opposed to paper gold (futures). IF the higher low forms, I will be looking to add once more, and from there only add on resistance break outs. My decisions are a function of the time frame that I am operating on, and is key to avoiding confusion and sticking with the plan. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 9After a day of sideways movement yesterday, we have finally broke upward and reached the 160's again! We reached a high of 162.10 before pulling back. Litecoin short term is still bullish which is good. We will need to break about $145 to reverse this. I circled what I believe could be a good buy zone in case LTC does decide to turn around. We have support at 141.20, 137.1, and 130.5. The lowest I see it reaching is that 141.20 mark, but I don't see that happening today. Our current short term resistance is in the 161-161.50 range. If we can break, our next HUGE test will be at 172.50. This will reverse our previous lower high pattern we have been seeing the last few days and will break our one of our longer term resistance bands. I'm hoping LTC moves sideways for a while to consolidate at these levels. I really want to see a test of the 172.50 resistance. That would be huge for Litecoin. If any drastic changes occur in the next few hours I will update this. Please check out my previous day TA's of LTC and follow me if you would like to stay updated with my analysis. Side note: Of course, LTC is highly tied to BTC, and BTC bounced off 8700 three times which is not a good is sign, but the drawback hasn't been extreme. That is why I am hoping we can consolidate at these prices for a little while so when the times come we can past the resistance.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
BTCUSD: Slow To Go. Retest Of 7Ks Before Next Run?BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum may still be in play because of the slow 8427 breakout attempt. Watch for a bearish close or break of previous candle low for more clarity. This does not mean I am bearish, I am observing and interpreting price action as the market unfolds. Many inexperienced traders who read my reports often think my evaluation is also a reflection of my trading decisions which is not the case at all. The market may show signs of short term bearishness, but that is the market, and only serves as a consideration for strategy and risk management. If I was day trading these markets, then I would be much more sensitive to immediate fluctuations. I am building a position trade which means I am looking at the market from a much broader perspective. I often remind newer traders that before you evaluate a market, you must have an idea of what time horizon you want to trade because information is weighted differently for each time frame. For my position trade, I am looking at broader market structures and evaluating price action on larger time frame charts such as 12 Hour, daily and weekly. And at the moment, price action has gotten stuck just under an important resistance point. A decisive break of 8427 is a key indicator for the return of bullish momentum on the bigger picture. It acts as a confirmation that the most recent bearish swing is over. So what does it mean if the level doesn't break? It means bearish possibilities are more likely. What bearish possibilities? A pull back to the 7Ks for a possible higher low formation. or a retest of the 6K low. In fact, the lower boundary of the current support zone 8171 to 4983 (.618 area of entire bullish structure) implies that a test of the 5Ks is possible for a failed low scenario. How do you manage a bullish position IF a bearish move unfolds? For me, I will not add any more to my long. Only in an extreme instance if price spikes off of a slight lower low will I consider buying more. Otherwise, risk can be managed by staying flat and waiting for more bullish signals. Once again, what to avoid on this time frame is getting short, because chances of a fake out are high based on the location of this price action. In summary, having a perspective serves as a guide. Risk management and strategy must be shaped and adjusted as the perspective changes. Your perspective must start from a time horizon and that is what should determine how your information is weighted. This is what allows me to be long and not get shaken in a market that has been bearish on the short term. Short term direction changes frequently, but the bigger picture does not. The fact that this market is trading within a major support zone is a key factor in my perspective and I am not about to become bearish at a low. As the market offers information that is in line with MY outlook, I can take initiative like add to my position. On the other hand, if the market offers information not inline with my outlook, I have to take defensive measures like not adding, possibly lightening up, and waiting. In order for this to work, my outlook must be based on a fundamental premise and in this case it is about the economic role of this market in the future. This is a major difference from day trading, which does not consider long term viability and focuses only on signals at the moment. Do not confuse perspectives. The simplest thing you can do is choose one and learn what is relevant to that time horizon and what is not. That alone will put you on a much more stable path when it comes to strategy and decision making in these markets. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
Litecoin Short Term TA Day 6Well that little bull run on Saturday was a tease wasn't it... Back down we go though. Litecoin has been performing stronger than its main competitors which is a good sign, BTC is about to reach the 6000's and we are still doing relatively well in comparison with how LTC usually does when BTC falls. Our first test will be 120. This is the lowest it reached right before that little bull run on Saturday. I think that is a good zone to buy, but of course it could go lower, so 107.50 will be the next test. If that gets broken, I would not be surprised if we see LTC below 100 again. If 100 is broken, I do not see it staying there for long. ' Our next real resistance is in the 160 range. If we do become bullish again, I don't see it being long and will see it bouncing off of there. We are seeing lower highs being reached. On 1/29 we saw 197.50. On 2/04 we saw 173.85. If we keep up with this pattern, our next one will be around 151.50. Going off of this pattern, I don't see that being reached until 2/10, so we got a few days of this downward/sideways movement. Remember though, Litecoin/crypto can do anything so all of this could change in an instant. I will keep an eye out on LTC and BTC and see if we touch support or go below and will update this if needed. Check out my previous days TA in the related ideas section and follow me if you would like.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by whatsinthecupsir
1
BTC - 1 - 2 - 3 - HEAVY RAIN !! LOST 10K, ADVISED ON JAN 27THHi Everyone, Actually, I have been saying BTC would fall since DEC 6TH 2017, just check my previous charts on BTC. Well, finally 10k support has just been broken, and price has lost MA 1000. Next stop should be 8700. It should struggle for a while until it goes for the final target: 6.999. About my Strategy: All the strategies that I tried learning around gave me at most 60% of profit probability; to me, that is almost a gamble, or flipping a coin - as 50% - 50% chance. So this is why I am trying to come up with a new way of trading perspective that could really tell us what is going to happen, and that could gives us more then 60%. The main idea here is to trying to understand what the heck is going on in this crazy market, from a high altitude point of view, inside the waves we can never see where the sea will lead the price. For those who don't know, I am trying to use a hole new way of trading perspective: "The Moving Water" that keeps working on my charts posted, but I am still improving it as we speak, so let me answer somethings a lot of people are questioning: Yes - For now I am still testing and improving this new trading perspective. No - I still don't have a blog or website, but keep following and later on I will open up for those who want to learn it. No - "THE MOVING WATER" are not the moving averages, it is so more complex then theses. They are useful, but, actually, most of the time, they fail to give you the right signal, so it is necessary to combine so many other concepts, and time analysis together to find out where the price will go. First Free Tip Proven: ALL MAs, SUPPORTs, RESISTANCEs: are strong until they brake, as you can see on this update on the 10K that was a support. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT. ALL IN.
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
BTCUSD: Going To New Lows? Or Great Place To Buy More?BTCUSD update: Price could not push through minor resistance of the 11871 to 12316 area and appears to be getting weaker once again following the establishment of yet another lower high. The price action is weak, BUT it must be considered in light of its location within the bigger picture. As long as it stays within this generally supportive area, minor pullbacks are potential buying opportunities from the larger time frame perspective. When utilizing TA, it is not just about evaluating the most current price action that is unfolding for patterns and levels. It is also about considering that price action in light of the bigger picture. Many less experienced traders forget that part, and get sucked into misleading signals as a result. The other factor that must always be considered before assembling a scenario for a trade is the time horizon, day? swing? position trade? because that also affects what information carries more weight. At the moment, the small picture shows a lower high off of a minor resistance area of 11871 to 12316 (.618 of recent bearish swing) and a possible triangle break to the bearish side. Isn't this a short setup? Sure, IF you are day trading, because this setup is occurring right into a major support zone that has not been compromised yet. I am observing this market from the position trade perspective which means I am interested in broader structures and levels, like the 10534 to 8656 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure). For me, the fact that price is still fluctuating in this area and not pushing below levels such as 9683 (written about in previous reports) means that it is not as weak as the immediate price action implies. For this reason, I am anticipating a bullish reversal within the support zone and a break of the 11871 to 12316 area rather than a retest of 8K. Now keep in mind, I could be wrong. I have been doing this long enough to know that the market is always right. The best I can do is interpret price action, make comparisons, develop scenarios and then see which path the market chooses. My thoughts, feelings and opinions are irrelevant. This is why managing risk is more important than being "right" as so many less experienced participants naturally value more. So with that being said, IF this market does not show any reversal signs and pushes below the 8656 area with conviction, I will just hold my position trade and wait until the market finds stability before doing anything else. Since I am in this for the bigger picture, my carefully managed size keeps me out of trouble. In summary, react less and compare more. Know what time frame you are looking to take risk on and weight information from there. For me, the big picture is in a descending wedge and forming a broad higher low, it is just a matter of catalyst before the next rally structure begins. I watched this market go to 1K back in 2013, and then pullback for 2 YEARS before it entered into the bull market that we saw more recently. As long as the general fundamentals of this space stay intact, I prefer to buy more, especially upon bullish reversal patterns within broad support zones. This is my perspective because I am in a position trade which aims to capture much broader market moves. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
BTCUSD: Test Of Low In Sight But Bears Beware.BTCUSD update: Lower high increases the possibility of the failed low attempt around the 9683 level. To break this bearish bias, price needs to push above the 12346 minor resistance zone. Even though a higher low formation has been established above the 9989 area, that does not guarantee we will get the new rally back to 15K or 16K. It increases the chances UNLESS the market changes which we have no control over. As a price action trader I do not fight or insist or assert my ego, I simply adjust. The current bearish pin bar that is forming indicates such a change and points to the possibility of the bearish momentum leading this market toward retesting the lows once again. In order for this scenario to follow through, the bearish pin bar needs to close in the current configuration and the next candle needs to break the current candle low and close weak as well. IF this sequence occurs, then the retest of the lows becomes much more likely. What is the failed low formation? As I wrote in my previous report, the failed low is when price goes slightly lower (often into a reversal zone) and then proceeds to reverse dramatically. Often a pin bar will appear in these type of situations. Failed lows look extremely bearish at the bottom and are usually accompanied by a lot of hype, drama and bearish news. Trading failed lows often provides very attractive reward/risk since the best prices become available. The key to watch for is the reversal candle formation within the reversal zone which in this case can be between the 9683 area and the 8656 boundary. IF the reversal candle never appears (and closes) then that is a sign to steer clear because it will indicate bearish momentum is taking prices to much lower levels. I am still long from an average price of about the mid 12Ks and do not intend to exit. I write about the bearish possibilities because they are important to be aware of for risk management purposes but if the reversal candle that I am anticipating appears, I will simply buy more. What makes me so bullish in such a situation is the key support area and repetitive buying patterns. I am evaluating and positioning myself for a broader rally that may take days or weeks to unfold in this market. It is just a matter of a bullish catalyst taking the market by surprise that will spark such a move. In summary, being able to anticipate what the market is likely to do next provides a way to constantly adjust risk and expectations. Bullish momentum came into the market, but has stalled for whatever reason but do not lose sight of the bigger picture. Lower highs often lead to lower lows BUT there is no guarantee that this market will push lows here especially in light of being within a relevant support zone. Any minor higher low or immediate reversal off of a lower low (failed low formation) and I am looking to add to my position trade long. IF price breaks below dramatically, then I just sit on my position and wait for renewed signs of stability and evaluate from there. IF instead price never pulls back and pushes through the minor resistance, then we are back in the bullish momentum scenario. Trading and investing effectively starts with a plan, and that plan begins with an evaluation process that considers multiple scenarios. Either the market confirms or it doesn't and based on your risk tolerance you should know ahead of time what action you are going to take. Not reaction. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
33
ETHUSD: Lower High Can Lead Back To 872 Area?ETHUSD update: Lower high established at the 1160 level which is not far from the 1216 to 1304 resistance zone. This formation is appearing across the main coins and signals further short term weakness. This is the trading environment as I described weeks earlier. Vertical markets breed bad habits and now is when the bad habits become expensive. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, buying into the now minor peak had to be done responsibly and for me that means with fractional sizing and no margin. I also wrote that I prefer to wait for the retest of the supports which is now underway across the board. In this market, a retest of relevant support levels is IF price can make its way back into the 872 to 739 area (.618 support zone relevant to recent bullish structure). That would produce a broad double bottom or possibly a failed low formation and would be a good location to consider a swing trade long according to my plan. The extreme price that I would be open to buying into is the 670 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 770 low. This zone is based on a proportion of the most recent bullish swing. IF price pulls back that far (anything can happen),I will be looking for reversal candles such as a pin bar or engulfing pattern to enter into a position trade long. I like this area the most because it represents an extreme price which is often where the herd is pushed out of longs or emotionally seduced into shorts. It is also where risk on the long side is the lowest relative to recent price structure. Speaking of shorts, selling into a lower high is not a bad idea, because reward and risk can be clearly quantified. Overall 1160 is the level to define risk from while the nearest target is 872. The current price is not the best entry since reward/risk is around 1:1 or less, but a minor retrace higher can present an opportunity on the swing trade time frame. I do NOT short these markets because I do not use margin, and I intend to participate on the bigger picture which is bullish. For those of you who are comfortable with this side of the market, you must not hesitate to take profits if you have the opportunity because the general environment is bullish and shorts will most likely get squeezed fast. I mention the short side because being aware of both sides of a market is part of having perspective. In summary, lower highs often lead to lower lows and within the context of a bullish bigger picture, a conflicting situation like this can be confusing. This is why a well defined plan and flexibility allow for effective trading around the confusion while the reactionary herd is still looking for the uncommon and unrealistic vertical market environment. My plan, just like in the other markets, is to participate on the long side which is in line with the bigger picture. As this bearish retrace may present a short term opportunity for some, I am waiting for the broader trend to reassert itself and I have levels to anticipate where that change will most likely take place. Either the market confirms my scenario, or I don't participate it is that simple. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18