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BTCUSD: Major Support Cleared, But Consider Bigger Picture.BTCUSD update: Dramatic new lows break below the 8656 boundary of the broader bullish support that has been in place for some time. Sure it looks ugly for longs, but do not panic. The next support area is 8171 to 4983, but this does not mean we are going that low. Here are a few things to keep in mind as this sell off unfolds. Sizing. Now you know why when I take position trades, I take them small, that and not using margin is what protects your sanity in times like this. Getting big too early puts you at the mercy of the market. We are now below the 10988 to 8656 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure), but there is another wide zone just below. The 8171 to 4983 is the .618 area of the entire structure from sub 100 low to the 20K high. In terms of Elliott Wave, this is a good place for Wave 2 to bottom out and that is what we are seeing here, a broad wave 2. So at this point, if you bought in at earlier prices and are still holding, this is where your careful sizing keeps you in play. I am just going to hold what I have and not going to add until stability reappears. These are great prices IF you have been flat, because believe it or not, the risk is lowest at these levels relative to potential reward. In order to continue building my position, I now need to see stability return in the form of a higher low on a large time frame like a 12 HR or above. If you are out looking to get in, this is a good time to start very small. This means if you were planning to invest 1K, only buy $100 worth, or 10% of your target size. IF and when the market firms up, you have 9 more units to buy which will occur at different prices as the market cooperates. This keeps your risk low and allows you to position yourself for the next leg up. What about shorts? In my opinion opening new shorts now is no different than buying at the top. When a market looks the most obvious, that is the time to do the opposite. Even leading up to this situation, if I was able to short, I would only consider such positions on day trading time frames because the longer term risk is too high. Unless you are looking to take quick profits, I would avoid it all together. Keep in mind, perspective is a big part of successful trading. From the beginning of my trading plan in this market, I bought small and waited. I did not place any stops, but I used my fractional size to protect me from situations like this. I am always considering these scenarios, even though I cannot determine if they will actually unfold, but I can prepare in case they do and that is why I always emphasize a focus on risk first, not rewards. Everyone is an expert in vertical markets, but it is these conditions that truly separate the professionals from the herd. In summary, perspective is the key here. My perspective is bullish, even in the face of this selling because that is the type of position I have taken from the beginning. If I was day trading these markets it would be a different story, but I stick to my plan.The difference between this and being stubborn is the long term outlook. As long as this technology continues changing the world, I want to be invested in the long run, IF that changes, then the premise behind my position will be negated and that is when changes must be made. I plan to buy more after the market finds stability which is not a single event, but more of a process that can take days to unfold. It is at these extreme points where you must be the most aware of your emotions and not letting them get the best of you. Have a plan with a relevant basis and stick to it. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
52
LTCUSD: Pushing Lows. Looking To Buy?LTCUSD update: Bearish momentum leads price deeper into the major support zone of 186 to 138 area. In this report I want to highlight two levels that offer new buying opportunities IF a reversal pattern materializes in the near future. Buying opportunities? Why would I be looking to buy in a "bear market" ? The reason is the time horizon of the trade I am taking, just like with BTC. The herd gets fixated on the small time frame price action and misses out on WHERE we are on the bigger picture. This is no different than being extremely bullish when the market is making new highs. Position trading requires the ability to put prices into perspective and also consider general fundamentals which in my opinion are still bullish. Referring to Elliott Wave rules, Wave 2 is not supposed to retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. If we consider that simple wave count here, this "bear market" as the herd calls it, is most likely a bottom of a broad Wave 2. Price even has room to test lower lows and still offer potential for adding to a position trade long. To put prices into bigger picture perspective, the 186 to 138 support zone is the .618 area of the broad bullish swing. Within this zone is the 165 to 153 minor .618 support that price is testing at the moment. This area is the first place to consider longs upon a bullish reversal pattern. The Second price to consider is the 118 level which is the lower boundary of the reversal zone measured from the 137 low. This area also happens to be just under the lower boundary of the broad descending wedge formation. This area is a good place to watch for extreme price spikes and bullish reversal patterns as well. Why buy into a weak market? I look to buy supports and sell resistances, it is a best practice. I am not moved by the hype and noise that the herd often over reacts to, especially at turning points. Instead of focusing on the immediate bearish momentum and accompanying drama, I focus on the fact that price is still within the vicinity of large magnitude supports which for me is a place to buy, not sell. Keep in mind, I am not day trading this market. As a day trader, shorts make more sense. Where the less experienced go wrong is they do not know how to form reasonable expectations for shorter time horizon strategies and let greed determine where profits should be taken, rather than probabilities. In summary, there are two ways to go about positioning for a broader bullish move that has not materialized yet. Buying small amounts and averaging into the lows, lightly and carefully so if price collapses altogether, the loss will be limited. Or the more conservative way which is WAIT for bullish signs off the major support area and then start buying. The second way gives up better prices for a more comfortable experience (momentum going your way and less pain). It is important to remember position trading requires longer term perspective, careful sizing and exclusion of margin in my opinion. Just like in BTC, as long as these markets and in an expanding economic space, it is just a matter of time before a string of bullish catalysts grab hold and the next bullish wave unfolds. I want to be positioned for that scenario, not chasing it. The ability to do this effectively is to buy when everyone is selling, and as long as we maintain the current supports, or test slightly lower, I am looking to continue to build a long position. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
BTC to finish its correction with 1 more lower low Looks like BTC is correcting and consolidating, while creating a bunch of new levels of support and resistance. Since BTC just flew in OCT and NOV, an established set of support levels have not been truly defined. BTC will test and retest for a lower low to find this bottom price. Expect the correction to take longer than you wish, as these things always do. But i believe we are just approaching the final leg of this C wave - which must contain 5 subwaves down in order to confirm its completion. Expect new low to be sub 9k and as low as $5950.00
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by astoinis
Bitcoin Jan 19 2018 UPDATED WITH EW FIBGoodmorning! BTC is moving upwards in count 4 of 5 corrective C wave down. expect failure of rally at max 12400.00 whereupon BTC is expected to turn sharply down to complete Wave C correction. Upon forming the expect coming low look for BTC to next start a new structure moving higher solidly. We will need to look for evidence supporting a trend reversal once the current structure completes. A series of higher highs, lower lows and volume response will he key to identification when a solid uptrend is established. Until then I expect this current 4th wave rally to move to possibly as high as 12400 before resuming lower to 8700 and very possibly lower to 6400 fib level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bshgeo