XRPUSD 1H BEST %R MOMENTUM STRATEGYStep #1: Define the Trend. An Downtrend is defined by a Series of LH Followed by a Series of LL.
The definition of an downtrend is pretty much standard. In an downtrend, we look for a series of lower highs followed by a series of lower lows. Two LH followed by at least another two LL is enough to define an downtrend.
A lower high is simply a swing low point that is lower than the previous swing high. While a lower low is simply a swing low that is lower than the previous swing low.
All momentum traders know that the trend is our friend. But without momentum behind the trend, we might actually not have any trend.
For active traders, we also look at the actual price action in order to gauge momentum. Besides reading the best momentum indicator.
Step #2: In an Downtrend Look for Bold Candlesticks that Close Near the Lower End of the Candlestick .
A technical analysis concept is that you want to use multiple confirmation signs when buying and selling. This will increase the likelihood that’s a high probability trading setup.
In this regard, the momentum trading strategy besides using the best momentum indicator, also incorporates the price action.
A practical way to read momentum from a price chart is to simply look at the candlestick length. What we want to see in an downtrend is big, bold bearish candlesticks that close near the lower end of the candlestick.
Now, it’s time to focus on the Williams %R. This is the best momentum indicator. Which brings us to the next step of our momentum indicator strategy.
Step #3: Wait for the best Momentum Indicator to get overbought (above -20). Then rallies below the -50 level before Selling .
We’re going to use Williams %R, the best momentum indicator in a smart way. In an downtrend, we sell after the best momentum indicator has reached overbought conditions (above -20). And then rallied back below the -50 level.
Now, we have confirmation from both the price and the best momentum indicator. The real momentum is behind this trend and the probabilities are in favor of more downside prices from here on.
Note* If the best momentum indicator continually stays in oversold territory (below -80 level), it signals a strong momentum and conversely a strong trend. Inversely the same is true in a uptrend.
The next important thing we need to establish is where to place our protective stop loss.
Step #4: Place Your Protective Stop Loss above the Recent Lower Low.
We want to hide our protective stop loss. It is above the most recent lower low level that formed right before the best momentum trading strategy issue the sell signal.
Alternatively, you can also trail your stop loss above each most recent lower low. This strategy will allow you to lock-in the potential profits in case of a sudden market reversal.
Last but not least the momentum indicator strategy also needs a place where we need to take profits, which brings us to the last step of the best momentum trading strategy.
Step #5: You pick your own TP strategy or
Take Profit once we break above the Previous Lower Low
A trend in motion can stay in that state longer than anyone can anticipate. And since we want to maximize our potential profits we let the market tips it hands before liquidating our trades. In this regard, we look for a break in the trend structure. Respectively a break above the most recent lower low.
Alternatively, you can take profit once the best momentum indicator breaks above the -50 level.
Note** The above was an example of a SELL trade using the Best Momentum Trading Strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade.
Lowerlow
DXY potential big drop pending?After forming a large bearish engulfing on the October monthly close, and price breaking a daily ascending TL and creating a new lower low. I am expecting price to come back for a retest of the TL / one of my areas of interest before potentially another large drop. One thing which goes against this however is price is still forming mini HHs and HLs above my EMAs on monthly. If this drop occurs we could see some nice buy set ups on XXXUSD pairs.
DAILY BTCWe couldn't reach the maximum target at 880, the daily 200 MA reversed the price and print a doji. We are now in a range of equilibrium, which could give us more lower lows.
I still have stacked my order till 6k, thew worst case in took in consideration.
Btw i wanna quote this :
"Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
SPY is throwing a tantrum... it'll get over it!Check out my blog at www.DumbMoneyTrader.com - I just started it, and it will get better for sure!
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BTC Update! Bulls make a weak effort before Bears pile in!Well the bears took BTC down and took price down fairly quickly. This morning I had outlined the box I was watching and wanted to see a break out above those $10,200's up towards $10,500 or a break down would occur if bears dropped us below $10k. Overall a very tight range and bulls looked like they were interested as they began poking above our 4 hour 12 and 26 EMAs today but daily chart it was just a rejection right off the 12 EMA. Unfortunately that was all the bulls had in them and could not break out and a few hours later the bears stepped in and dumped price 7% within 30 minutes. We now have our low of $9522 today and bulls giving a fairly weak bounce attempt here which usually just means cooling off RSI's and bears will reload for another leg down. We do have a couple of supports to be watching including $9470, $9110, and $9071. So really $9k-9.5k will be pretty crucial for the bulls to try and keep price from slipping below.
I am personally just waiting for a better trade setup as bears are currently in control and very difficult to try and catch a bottom. Will be watching hourly chart for price action to ideally catch up to EMAs and see if rejections occur there.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bulls tire out. Higher lows fail and down comes BTC!
We saw a near perfect example of traders rushing to the exits on a loss of our higher lows. Following the same stair stepping up with new higher lows each day BTC was forming. We did have a bit of a sideways action and some may have decided $10,630 was a higher low and lost yesterday with a break down to $10,555. I personally did not have $10,630 as the higher low due to price action being more sideways and not giving the typical lower high and lower low pattern on smaller time frames to confirm anything for me. $10,555 became the higher low I watch. I then set my stop loss before bed a few dollars under this level and slept comfortably knowing it was a profitable trade even if I got stopped out. I zoomed in here on 15 min chart and the yellow line indicates the higher low level traders were watching. Once we finally broke it early this morning, we saw an immediate flush down and find ourselves testing $10k.
So I am safely back to cash, profits locked up rather than holding through that drop. They don't always play out perfectly as trading does not guarantee anything. Trading is a probabilities game. And the probability of price dropping on the loss of higher lows is significant. So now we zoom out to daily chart. $10,953 is our lower high on daily. $9,470 is our must hold on daily. Anything above $9,470 will put us in an equilibrium so potential for scaling back into positions here soon for me and utilizing $9,470 as a stop loss. I'd like to see bears get one more leg down just to decrease my risk but price did bounce right off a Fibonacci line so now bulls need to prove themselves and start with some higher highs and higher lows on smaller time frames (think 15 minutes). Otherwise I'll sit patiently in cash and just wait.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC/USDT moving down targeting $8500 as a new lower low? looking at the 1 hr chart and trying to figure what has happened so far from a Fib perspective..
Summary : i think it looks like an impulse down that is about to finish with a 5 wave going to the down side. yet the bullish potential of having a deep retrace for a bounce attempt is still not invalidated as we bounced off the 0.786 so far.
my fib analysis for what happened so far in my opinion:
0. after we failed to achieve a higher high we rejected to the downside with what looks like an impulse wave down.
1. we impulse down as wave 1, bouncing back to to a fib of 0.5 ( a common retrace for wave 1.
2. wave 3 is the longest so far with a clear count of 5 sub waves going down. with a fib attention of 2.0 from wave 1. then it retrace to the common wave 4 retrace of fib 0.382. which looks like a 3 wave going up more than an impulse wave going up from the 0.786 from the bigger correction of the impulse wave before.
if this is a correct count then we are looking for a wave 5 going down, to retest or break previous low of $9060. the break of $9060 will invalidate the bullish scenario on this time frame as a failed wave up.
on a weekly chart it shows we r looking for a test of the 0.382 and confirming we can stay above that level, or we r going to test lower fib retracments as the 0.5 and the 0.618. time will show.
this is my opinion, do u have another way of looking at this on this time frame?
BTC Update! Another lower low! Another bad day for BTC and crypto in general. I personally got stopped out after refilling this most recent position. Minimal damage done since I was able to flip the trade yesterday I outlined in last post but I am now back to cash and more or less just playing a game of patience here. Bulls need to establish some form of support as there's not much support nearby. 4 hour chart is oversold but daily still has a ways to go. Our strongest support remains down at 7400-7700 range but continue to prefer we not revisit that area. We have had a lot of politicians involved in crypto talk the past few days revolving mostly around BTC and Libra coin from facebook. Crypto has been very shaky and seeing a lot of bearish posts lately so definitely keeping my eyes on new entries. Will clean up this chart today now that our last trade setup has failed as bulls were unable to reverse the trend by forming a higher low and instead sank to lower lows.
Just My 2 Sats!