Lowerlows
Dow theory basicsHow to identify trends and trend changes.
In downtrends - trendlines must connect the descending peaks - left to right
In uptrends - trendlines must connect rising thoroughs - left to right
"Trend is your friend unless it ends"- T. DeMark:)
GOOD LUCK!
Gbpusd sell lowerlowsGbpusd will make more lower lows. Expecting a drop now.
Hit like for support and follow for many more upcoming accurate pips.
AUDCAD ForecastW1 - Price still has room lower towards the bottom of the bearish channel.
D1 - Price has created lower lows and most importantly we don't have any reversal signs.
H4 - Price broke below an important support zone and also based on the Heiken Ashi candles we have strong bearish candles in downward moving market conditions so it basically reflects a bearish environment, so until the condition changes my view remains bearish here.
H1 - Price is moving inside a triangle pattern and if the price breaks and holds below this triangle we may then look for sells with bearish evidences.
Alternatively if the price moves higher then the next areas to look for bearish evidences to join the bears would be the two important sell zones shown in the chart.
Gbpjpy short Gbpjpy has been in a sell out mode and is planning on dropping a couple more pips further. I see this pair having no problem going down to it’s weekly support @ the 127.800. We have a nice head and shoulders formation on the 30min timeframe a nice 4 hour shooter star will validate for a strong push to the downside let’s clash!
CADCHF Short Term ForecastH4 - We have lower lows, lower highs pattern, currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
H1 - Until the two sell zones shown in the screenshot holds my short term view remains bearish here.
EURUSD Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - We had a bearish divergence, then the price moved lower and broke below the last low thus forming a bearish convergence.
In addition to this the price has also broken below the uptrend line, we may consider these as evidences of bearish pressure.
H4 - Bearish trend structure (3 lower highs, lower lows pattern), we may now look for pullbacks towards the sell zone marked in the chart. We may then look for bearish setups with bearish evidences around this sell zone (candle stick patterns, false break, trend line breakout, etc...) in order to start looking for the sells.
Invalidation - If the price moves higher and breaks above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level in one straight move then this sell setup will be invalidated.
EURJPY Sell IdeaW1 - Price reached a strong resistance zone, bearish hidden divergence.
D1 - Price broke below the bullish channel, the price then moved lower and has created lower lows.
H4 - Price is moving inside a small range, we may now look to sell the top of the range with bearish evidences.
If you want to be more conservative then wait for the price to break below the bottom of the range and then you may look for sells with more bearish evidences (evidences could be in the form of candle stick patterns, false breaks, trend line breakout etc… supporting the bearish view).
USDJPY Sell IdeaW1 - Price is holding below the downtrend line, bearish hidden divergence.
D1 - Price has broken below the last low and has created lower lows, currently it looks like a retrace is happening.
H4 - Bearish hidden divergence, we may now look for more evidences of bearish pressure in order to join the bears.
AUDCHF Sell IdeaW1 - Bearish hidden divergence, RSI trend line breakout
D1 - Uptrend line breakout, last divergence was bearish regular.
H4 - Bearish divergence, most recent trend line breakout, also the previous swing low was broken creating lower lows.
We may now look for pullbacks and sells with more bearish evidences.
$CREE Lower Prices Ahead$CREE is under pressure technically and broke under a key uptrend line. Just looking at the chart and you can see that $CREE has been making lower highs and lows. We believe $CREE is going under $40 and will test new 52 week lows. This all comes after $CREE delivered disappointing Q1 earnings and forecast a loss in Q2. Here are the highlights:
Cree (NASDAQ:CREE) beat Q1 estimates despite a 12% Y/Y revenue decline. The downside Q2 guidance sees revenue of $234-240M (consensus: $244.17M) and a loss per share of $0.07 to $0.11 (consensus: $0).
Q1 Wolfspeed revenue totaled $127.7M versus the $128.6M consensus. LED revenue was $115.1M compared to $114.2M.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
AUDCHF Sell IdeaD1 - Price has created lower lows currently it looks like a flat correction is happening.
H4 - Price is moving inside a bearish flag pattern.
H1 - Price is moving inside a small range, price has reached a critical zone formed by the top of the H1 range, H4 bearish flag and the fibo levels of the cycles we have and is currently moving lower.
Until the price holds below the critical zone we may look for bearish setups with bearish evidences in order to join the bears.
AUDJPY Sell IdeaD1 - Lower lows, no divergence against, 61% fibo at the end.
Until there is any opposite evidence we may expect possible continuation lower.
H4 - Until the price holds below the top of the range my view remains bearish here.
CADJPY short setupcadjpy on the weekly doesn't show a lot apart form basic support and resistance but when I went down a timeframe, I saw daily trendline making lower highs and lower lows.
4hr/1hr timeframe showed me a rising wedge occurring while breaking out and making a head and shoulders pattern.
EUR/CHF Technical analysisThe counter is in a strong bearish trend making lower highs and lower lows consistently.
The recent surge in the counter can be attributed to a bearish flag pattern.
Now, the counter is in a confluence of resistance points - flag and trendline resistance.
Also, the RSI indicator lurking below the overbought zone.
Hence, we expect the pair to move down from here.
Bad End of the Day for SPY?After a strong rally to the upside it's hard to see price moving downward, afterall we've bean hearing a lot of possitive news througout the media. But as a trader aren't we supposed to be contrarians? Well after looking at how today ended It could be hypothesised that the stong move to the upside has calmed down since bulls failed to break through recisstance and were pushed to lower levels. I interpet this as a bearish signal which can be traded in 3 ways, 2 being the ones drawn out in the chart. The other a more long term and risky trade with stops at 300 looking for a long term reversal back into the december lows. Although nothing is ciertan as of yet this market should be watched closely since it could have severe implications on the future of the world economy.
BTC Update! Consolidation has arrived - Are you buying this dip?Last couple of charts we have been watching for the consolidation. We've had plenty of warning signs the bulls were running out of steam and bears were stepping in. We had our quick bull break to $9090 and then a strong bearish reversal in price action and heavy bearish volume. That was our first real red flag.
The bulls barely clung on to 12 EMA support on daily chart and eventually did lose it and are now under 26 EMA as well on daily.
We have seen bulls lose the uptrend of higher lows and higher highs and have now shifted to lower highs and lower lows on daily.
As stated few days, I am in no rush to re-enter positions since my exit in the upper $8000's on BTC and we are now fighting a downward trend on most time frames. We once again need to start seeing the hourly, then 4 hour, then daily reverse the trend to regain higher lows and higher highs. Outside of oversold bounces for quick flips for profits, not seeking to hold anything for longer swing positions until we begin to see the trends change.
If I were zooming out onto weekly and looking for consolidation and seeking to bottom fish a position, anything around $6700-7000 would be a nice healthy area in my opinion. I'm personally not seeking to catch a bottom here and would much rather take the safer route of waiting for trends to change favorably for the bulls before re-establishing any swing positions. As a trader, price is irrelevant to me on a bigger picture, its all about safe/low risk entries and not trying to catch bottoms for buys or tops for sells. If seeking oversold positions for quick trades, its still not an ideal scenario where your risk/reward setups are just not great but can be a way to pick up small but quick profits. Or play the patience game. Wait for the 4 hour or whatever your preferred time frames are to change their trend to bullish with higher lows and higher highs which gives a much strong risk/reward relationship.
Just My 2 Sats!
Fake out leads to a drop! Lower lows and VWAP AMD another Home Run trade. When breaking out new highs the price has to sit to the higher levels confirming an area of confluence and stabilization. If it gets back to breakout levels it could then just drop at least retesting VWAP. 29.60 / 29.95 has been an important level on AMD. Touched and heavily sold today 29.62 has been shorted again! Price confirmed the down trend fading off the 13eMA perfectly. First take could have been just at the first time price crossed the 13eMA. Second take at the break of 28$ and one more piece could have been closed at next cross. Last one simply let it go break even. And in this case would have produced another nice movement in our favor closed at 27.50
CAN MOVING AVERAGE GIVE CONTEXT TO PRICE MOVEMENTConsider the common situation in Forex when price makes a move for 50 or more pips in one direction. It could be a sudden move covering a large distance in just one or two bars, or it could move steadily over many days. Whether the move surprises you or steadily makes tracks in one direction, it happens that you notice this market might be trending. Will it continue? Or, should you expect it to suddenly reverse? How do you know?
Trading is a speculative venture without absolute assurance of timing or direction for the market’s next move, but there is something you can do to stack the odds in your favor. Plotting a moving average gives context to changes in price, and provides a template for planning trades with expectations about what the market will do next.
Look at these 2 charts. The first one, without any technical indicators, is a picture of rapid change in price. It would be impossible to know if it’s random, if it’s expected to continue going down, or if it might swing back in the opposite direction.
In the second picture, two moving averages give context to that same price action.
In the midst of a choppy market where price is jumping up and down over a period of time, the moving averages show me that price is holding to one side, giving me the information I need to know this market is in a down-trend and will be looking for lower lows. Going short is a good bet in spite of the volatility.
Moving averages are guides, providing context and making the world of price action look a lot less random.
EURUSD goes long - look like bullish :)Hi at all!
The previous Lower High was broken. This is why the downtrend is on the end and a new uptrend starts.
Use the correction waves to build a lucrative tradepyramid.
EURUSD MarkUpThis is my EURUSD mark up. I'll follow these zones 'til Feb. 15th, 2019. Color coded so there's no confusion since I use multiple time frames. I could go in depth with how I view my charts, but we're all different when it comes to trading. However, I love feedback as long as it's not negative.
BTC Update! Bears set their lower high and follow through!Last chart we were watching to see if the bull push up to $3658 would be it for upward movement. As described last chart, bears would be perfectly comfortable on daily chart with that being the lower high to then give them the momentum to seek a lower low with bulls desperately needing to hold $3425 support. Bulls caved yet again and bears dropped price back down. $3338 is currently that bottom and below that continues to remain $3129 from back in mid December. Thus far the bulls have not given this up which is fairly impressive as bears have been under minimal pressure the last several weeks. $3440 is a small resistance so marked it here but really watching $3658 and then $3766 again. If bulls fail to get back above $3658, its just the same exact pattern over again. More lower highs and the bulls trying to defend against short term lower lows. Problem is these short term lower lows continue to come in and creep up on our December low of $3129. There is only so much breathing room left for the bulls which again continues to make me very cautious. EMAs are back to serving as resistance so another area to keep a close watch on. Many alt coins are trending back lower as well and overall market is just boring. Less and less interest in the space lately but anyone seeking for a bull run should keep alerts on as these markets will bore you to death if needed before turning back up. I'll continue to set my alerts as we slowly trend lower, patiently wait and just be ready. Not much else you can do if you aren't shorting the market.
Just My 2 Sats!
