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ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Lower Low Into Major Support.ETHUSD Update: 230 support area has been reached while all the coin markets sell off. This is actually a great time to start considering accumulating small positions for the long term even while there are no signs of buyers. Momentum is bearish and price has been making lower lows along with the rest of the markets. BTC is clearly leading the way. You can blame it on the news, or whatever other catalyst you like, the important thing is that price is beginning to revisit attractive levels. This is where the people who were way too bullish at 380 get pushed out of there positions, especially the ones who used leverage and have no idea how that works. A few weeks ago it was hard to imagine this market testing the 230s, but as you can see, anything is possible and why I always focus on risk and not reward. The 230 support zone is relative to the .618 of the recent bullish swing and is a wide area with the bottom boundary at 196. At the moment, since there is no sign of stability in any of these markets, it is possible to test that level. And if you zoom out further and look at the entire price history on a weekly chart, you will see that the .618 relative to the overall initial wave is the 162 to 94 area. I am not "predicting" that this is the next support, but it does provide some perspective in the sense that there is room for this market to test lower prices and it would still be normal. The fact that this market broke the 296 level and has not found stability, followed by retesting the current support, signals that this market is more likely to see more of a range bound environment in the near term. This means short term positions should have conservative profit targets, like the low 300s, etc. This market no longer has the structure in place to see 400+ in the near term. The market now needs time to stabilize and consolidate. When markets are full of fear, as long as they maintain their fundamental value (in this case the technology hasn't changed), the opportunity to start accumulating a small position is not unreasonable. This is not a technical play, or a short term trade. It is buy some for the long term. Months and years not days and weeks. Even though there is no technical bottom in place, and there is still room to go lower, as long as you believe in their future, then this situation as a whole is a buying opportunity. The key is starting small. For example if you buy 1 coin at 230, and it goes to 130 in the next week, is that really going to hurt you? Also you have to keep the this process and strategy separate from your shorter term plays. It is more of an investment. Remember, the goal is to build onto the position as the market stabilizes. By starting small, you are limiting your risk and will have the ability to take pain. If you start big, or get too big too fast, or use leverage, you will get yourself into trouble quickly. In order for this market to show any sign of stability, the first thing that I need to see is a break above the 293 level. This is the .382 of the entire bearish swing and an overlap of the .618 of the most recent bearish swing. IF price pushes above that level, that would be the first step to looking for more signs, like a higher low. I must emphasize this level is not a buy trigger. Just a point of reference that will signal the bearish momentum is losing steam. Until that happens, any minor retrace is more likely to unfold as a lower high. In summary, do not get sucked into the hype. As long as these coins maintain their purpose, and they are not rendered obsolete by some new technology, you have to see beyond all the drama and think against the crowd, ESPECIALLY this crowd. I am staying out in terms of swing trades until these markets can stabilize and when they do, price action will provide the right clues. And now is the time to think about a core position, not at 350. You will not get the bottom. Remember: small. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Room For Lower Prices.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum continues as price revisits the 260 support level. I have been stopped out of my long, and will now wait until the market can show new signs of stability. At the moment, the next area of support is the 230 zone which is very possible until the momentum changes. I have been writing about the 296, 260 and 230 levels for some time now. Now that 260 has been tested, that is a clear sign the bears are in control which can take prices back to the 230 area as well. The BTCUSD chart is also very similar and still has room to see lower prices. Even though I have been stopped out, I am still bullish and now waiting until stability returns to these markets. If this is a Wave 2 of a larger 3, it can retrace quite a bit before seeing a significant reversal. Keep in mind I do not know how low these markets will go, and I am flexible enough to get back in if I see the right conditions. The kind of price action I am waiting for requires 2 conditions. First a resistance needs to be taken out. These usually come in the form of a lower highs that get broken and as of right now, the 282 and 296 levels (old support, new resistance) will have to be broken. Second, after price breaks the resistance, it will be a matter of waiting for a higher low or failed low and that is the point when I can evaluate risk for a new position. When the market shows signs of continuous bullish momentum, there will be plenty of opportunity to add to the position. So my plan is as follows: I will be watching the 260 area on the 4 hour time frame for a break of a lower high resistance followed by a reversal structure like a higher low or double bottom. If these appear, I will consider putting on another small position (25% of my normal beginning size) so that if I am stopped out again, the loss is proportionally small. If price falls through 260, then I will be watching the 230 area for the same kind of price action. Just to be clear, this process can take days if not longer. Also at the moment, 310 which is the .382 of the overall bearish swing is a key level for defining momentum and as long as price stays below this level, I will expect any bullish swings to be limited in proportion until price action proves otherwise. I have been getting all kinds of PMs asking me about news, and the China situation. Again the news just pushes prices faster. Corrections are normal and required in order to shake out the weak hands and provide new opportunities. In terms of the big picture, any major sell off is a buying opportunity for long term positions in my opinion. In summary, as bearish momentum maintains its hold on all of these markets, the lower support levels like the 230 area now become the focus. The key to speculating in any market successfully is being prepared and defining a scenario ahead of time which is not a prediction. If the market presents the planned scenario then great, you follow the plan and if it doesn't, you stay out. Many people still do not understand that there is a high degree of randomness to price action which is the reason why no one will be right 100% of the time and also why we are always evaluating probabilities. Comments and questions welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
39
GbpUsd 4H - Broken Trendline, Kangaroo Tail, Double TopGbpUsd is bearish, and it will remain so for this month. I believe lows will be reached in monthly support zones. In any case, this trade is short term aiming the first TP on previous recent structure. Furthermore, the kangaroo tail has printed before the breakout as the doible top formation was formed. Ask questions & Give comments!! Bests ------------------------------ Refernces: Naked Forex (book), Akil Stokes (trader).
Short
by PipMorningstar