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Lowvolatility

BEARISH BTC - SHORT TRADETrading inside a descending triangle. MACD looks to be gaining some support but the volume suggests not enough price action. RSI not shown but looks overbought enough to keep my short from $8511 running. If close is made above $8368. I will take a risky long to around $8472 using only 10% of my wallet. Small gains to be made within this triangle. Let me know what you think about it. Definitely ready for a breakout soon and I am mainly focused on the short for this trade waiting for a close below the green support line on the chart and a close back above it for another bounce and maybe another small profit. Stop losses will be set to prevent my losses here as they are risky but they are there. Thanks for reading. Give me a like and follow if you want. I always appreciate feedback good or bad it’s the only way of learning better. DYOR. These are my views only
Short
by madden286
Black Friday low volatility: calm before the storm for USD/JPY?While we shouldn't expect any moments of high volatility today during shortened US trading hours (also in bonds/yields), we will project what is to come in the USD/JPY over the next week of trading. With the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and Non-Manufacturing (Wednesday), ADP (also on Wednesday) and Non-Farm-Payrolls (Friday), the main focus will stay on the developments in 10-year US-Treasury yields which has driven the price action in the currency pair this month. After the US data releases over the last few weeks showed solid prints, and with market participants expecting no moves from the Fed (according to the Fed Watch Tool) at the meeting on December 11, we remain sceptical if the USD/JPY has a serious chance to stabilise significantly above 109.00. The reason for this is that if data exceeds expectations, it could result in short-term bullish stints which are then aggressively sold off again, leaving a test of the region around 108.00 over the next week of trading a topic. In our opinion, the same is true with underperforming data, which could result in rising expectations of a more dovish stance from the Fed, which could result in a drop in US yields since such an expectation would add to the bearish yield outlook with the Fed expanding its balance sheet at a faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3. Nevertheless, we remain cautious in regards to an overly bearish USD/JPY outlook. As we approach the yearly close, volatility should be expected to stay low and we don't expect an aggressive attack at the region around 106.80/107.00, at least not for now, which would definitely increase chances of a sharper drop from a technical perspective, as low as 105.00 and probably even lower. Ready to start trading the live markets? Then open a free account with Admiral Markets - 8,000+ instruments to choose from, some of the market's tightest typical spreads, and the world's #1 multi-asset trading platform. www.admiralmarkets.com Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
by Admiral_Markets
ETH low volatility foretell a big move soon ?As shown in the chart above, the standard deviation indicator, a widely used measure of volatility calculating the average dispersion of data points for the specified time range, reaches a level not seen since 2018. Price zig-zag in a very narrow range, between 180-185, for more than 3 weeks. The record low volatility and volume definitely is not a welcoming situation for traders who want to ride along with the inherent volatility of the crypto market. However, experienced trader should be vigilant because the dreary situation won't last forever. Since volatility is squeezed so much for weeks, we can safely conclude a major move should take place soon. As long as the market decides to move up or down with heavy volume, a new trend will engender.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by UnknownUnicorn3838311
30 min BTC volatility30 min BTC volatility, This indicator is derived from mathematical research and measures volatility! The rule is that after high volatility it comes a period of low volatility, and you should always enter the market when there is low volatility. So in this case, the volatility in BTC has been declining during the day after a spike. Which indicates that the market is ready for another rally. If you have entered the market, consider staying in your position until the volatility spikes next time. Stay tuned! ----------------------- The information contained in this idea does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. Only for education purposes! -----------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Zeiierman
2
EURCAD 100-EMA Pullback StrategySTRATEGY: 100EMA Pullback Strategy Focus Time Frame: 1H Long Term Trend Time Frame: 1D/4H Market Condition: Long Term: Ranging Short Term Downtrend Area of Value (AOV): 83/100/120EMA : 1.46137 - 1.46065 Entry Trigger (1H): Inside Bar (Low volatility/good RRR) Entry Price (EP): 1.45919 Stop Loss (SL): 1.46164 Take Profit (TP): 1.45183 (3R) Analysis: This is a continuation of the previously closed short position. Major Market Condition is ranging, but short term market condition appears as downtrend. Currently, the price break above/faked out of 50EMA and found resistance at 83/100/120 EMAs. To put simple, price made a pullback at 83/100/120 EMA. Strong price rejection manifested rejecting the said EMAs. OANDA:EURCAD Note: This post is for my reference/journal purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
Short
by jumpstartscript
Rule number 1 of trading/investing.As I am bored to near death, I just look at random stuff from time to time, and let me post about trading rule #1. You could call that a motivational post I suppose. PRESERVE CAPITAL. And do you know what trading rule number 2 is? Re-read rule number 1. Sure maybe the ranges can be traded but unless you are 100% sure and a strategy that worked over and over and over, don't bother. Even with a guaranteed strategy, I bet there is a risk of an explosive move at ANYTIME. So even if you just trade the range once twice then stay away to avoid taking that move against you it might actually explode before? Nothing is better than trading trending pairs (or stocks or crypto's). Maybe you can make quicker money on flash crashes buying dips, I still prefer going with trends, just nearly guarenteed wins if you don't join last :) (I have no idea who most of these people are) "Most investors focus on how much they're going to make rather than how much they could lose. Our focus is on the downside" Marc Lasry "Safety. Considering the downside is the single most important thing an investor must do. This task must be dealt with before any consideration can be made for gains" Irving Kahn “Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have” Paul Tudor Jones “An investor is more likely to do well by achieving consistently good returns with limited downside risk than by achieving volatile and sometimes spectacular gains but with considerable risk of principal. An investor who earns 16% annual returns over a decade, will perhaps surprisingly, end up with more money than an investor who earns 20% a year for nine years and then loses 15% the tenth year” Seth Klarman “An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he avoids big mistakes” Warren Buffett I want to quote Phil Town but on this all he does is quote Warren Buffet. "A very important data point for me is to try to avoid permanent loss of capital" Mohnish Pabrai "Look down, not up, when making your initial investment decision. If you don’t lose money, most of the remaining alternatives are good ones."Joel Greenblatt ^ Oh this is my trading system summed up XD "Watch out for the downside. Don't worry about the upside" Jim Tisch "We prioritize the avoidance of catastrophic loss first and foremost and focus on potential gains second" Zeke Ashton (See my post on the 2015 EURCHF mega drop that wiped up several brokers and legions of "hedge" funds) “Capital preservation is always far more important than capital enhancement” Seth Klarman “The notion of understanding the first rule of life is important: don’t lose money” Mario Gabelli "Return of capital is more important than return on capital" Mohnish Pabrai I wonder if bad traders prefer sideways markets, since it is more random and some of them with luck might end up not losing for the first time in their lives?
Education
by MrRenev
5
Bitcoin - Good News, Bad NewsLast week's Bitcoin performance included good news and bad news. Good news - We found support slightly below the $6000 mark when there was a real threat of breaking to the downside which would have been very nasty (shaded green support zone). We instead broke the resistance trendline to the upside. Bad news - After breaking said trendline it would have been fair to expect a subsequent rally of some substance. We did get a few impulsive legs up to be fair, but as a whole it has been underwhelming - a "limping", rather than a "charging" bull. The price may still surprise to the upside, but for now the recovery has been mediocre at best. Put into context, this is the fourth break of a significant resistance trendline (pink lines) since the all time high (ATH) in December last year. As can be seen below each breakout has been less impulsive: 1st - 26% in 4 days 2nd - 39% in 8 days 3rd - 39% in 16 days 4th (current) - 8.5% in 8 days Each breakout holds the promise that the Bitcoin bull of 2017 will return - however, as can be seen every rally has resulted in a lower high (LH). Furthermore, every down trend has resulted in a marginally lower low (LL) with respect to the daily close price. Only once we see a higher high and higher low on the daily chart will the current bear trend be invalidated - this appears to be a long way off! It is also clear that the Bitcoin price has become considerably less volatile which is not an attractive scenario from a traders perspective, however is does give rise to some interesting fundamental questions. Is low Bitcoin volatility the sign of a maturing market or merely the result of a loss of faith in cryptocurrency? Is low volatility the new normal or are we winding up for a big move? Should low volatility be celebrated as it makes Bitcoin more suitable to be used as a transactional currency? As a trader, I say bring back the volatility! However, perhaps a more stable, less speculative, dare I say - more boring Bitcoin - is in fact better for the crypto industry as a whole.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tennant.graeme
Apple: Low volatility, volume and price- where are the bulls at?Volume Apple-0.09% Volume continued falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, -5% on each to 20.8m which is 45% below the 1 month average at 38.5m and 50% below the 6 month average at 40m. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL-0.09% risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. However, volume has contracted significantly every day this week, losing over 20% since the week start, providing a promising environment for apple-0.09% growth, but the stock has struggled to hold onoto any gains, with candles often closing in the lower 25% quartiles of their ranges - indicating the stock isnt necessarily looking to push up yet. IMO the stock requires more new buyers, it isnt a selling problem its a demand side issue. With the SPX0.33% rising, it shows liquidity is increasing in risk assets so im not sure why apple-0.09% isnt receiving some of the new liquidity and posting upside gains. Volatility & Apple-0.09% vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied vols dropped yesterday over 1% to 20.90. Apple-0.09% vol0.00% carries the trend with volume , falling every day this week and now sits at lows from June 2015. Also the correlation between APPLE-0.09% and its Implied volatility index continued to maintain deep into negative territory - at 93% falling marginally from 94% yesterday. This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple-0.09% growth. However, the correlation dips slightly, as PRICE that is starting to fail the relationship - as when correlation falls price SHOULD rise hence the high negative relationship. However, price is trading flat/lower thus the correlation is becoming more positive (lower vols and lower price = positive corr) Evalutaion Both the falling implied vols and volume , all of which in record setting/ bullish areas provide the perfect environment for growth so as per the last 3 days I am bullish on apple-0.09% and STILL expect a $100 break out to 101/2 this week, though the probability falls significantly, but thrusday is usually the best day for gains, with friday being the worst. These indicators make me especially bullish as the lower volume and vols are occuring whilst apple-0.09% trades close to 100USD, where usually, the psychological level causes volume to spike as the uncertainty causes sellers and buyers to flood the market - Which as a result also cause volatility to spike. Given that we havent see this, apple-0.09% should be comfortable with a price hike and is showing strong signs that this is the case. I feel apple-0.09% needs some upside stimulus at these prices and it will cause a cascaded rally from 100 to 1005+ in a short period of time. We just need to get past this 100 level, which keeps growing its strength every day
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
APPLE 4% ALGO SPIKE? LOWER VOLS & VOLU; HIGHER NEGATIV VOLS CORRAlgo spike 4% to $101.8? At 18:19 BST Apple stock surged from 99. to $101.8 and back again all within a minute. It was Likely to be algo driven OR a data/exchange error - though no news outlets reported either or offered any other speculation. Though $101.8 is the closest near by resistance strong hold for apple, so it would be a weird coincidence for a "data error" to trade to that price - equally as possible none the less. IMO, because there was little volatility after the event and also because Apple is now struggling to break the $100 i think it was probably a data/exchange error. If it was an actual demand induced algo spike, the stock would have experienced signifcant price volatility after the event as much of the markets TP/SL levels would have caused a large wave of stochastic automated buying/selling as positions are closed out. Further, if the spike was real, apple should have been able to trade above $100 easily today; 1. As $101.8 would be a clear bull target level. 2. as the spike would have removed all of the $100TP selling pressure last night - meaning there would be little volume left to continue long squeeze selling today (which annoyingly has been the case). Volume Apple Volume fell significantly on Monday by 40% to 23m vs 39m (1month av.) and 43m (6month av.). In the first half of trading today, volume was also 7% down from yesterdays first half at 11.23m vs 12.0m - signalling today may continue the bullish trend. This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand. Volatility & Apple vs VXAP Correlation We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as vols dropped yesterday despite an algo driven spike to $101.8 (4%). Apples CBOE VXAP continued to sell off, closing yesterday at 21.64 from 21.73 Friday. Also the correlation between APPLE and its Implied volatility index continued to fall deeper into negative territory - surpassing levels seen in the last bull run to $112 which peaked at 90% (92% to 94%), This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple price growth.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by QuantumLogicTrading