Ltc_btc
LTCCNY - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day LightLTCCNY - Litecoin Could Be About To See The Day Light
Most Crypto Currencies have been in a bear cycle for over a year which I am sure must have humbled many eager bulls and given bears something to jubilee. In fact I have noticed that there seems to be more bears being vocal that ever before in the last 12 months of my observation.
I almost given up even looking at LTC chart due to my general misgiving about the entire Crypto currencies lack of trust worthy infrastructure and all other negatives which I feel is a limiting factor for wider adoption. But This is early in its infancy and it is to be expected.
Price analyses using TA is somewhat difficult with limited price history with wild spikes that populate it. However, checking this chart with one of the user yesterday appear to excite me purely from TA perspective as follows:
1. Assuming that Nov 2013 high correspond to wave (iii) on my BTCUSD chart which formed after clear 5 wave move up.
2. This then needs to correct by abc zigzag this too is evident with wave c displaying clear 5 wave decline which appears to be now complete forming triple bottom.
3. Subsequent price action is attempting to breach the upper trend line of the declining channel accompanied with divergence RSI leading to low being formed and now in bullish configuration and rising.
4. Looking at the smaller time frame there is possible new bullish cycle counts suggesting minor i and ii have formed, if correct we should see further momentum carrying the price higher with volume.
5. The LTC/BTC spread chart also suggesting that corrective bearish cycle could be over.
6. If correct then we could expect LTCCNY at least to retest the upper range of the price namely Nov 2013 high or make new higher high.
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Fractal logicEven though I maintain a neutral position on LTC/BTC at the moment, many fractal expressions emerging on the weekly chart. Fractal expressions are frequently overlooked and often dismissed. Don't execute on this logic alone but certainly should be considered for planning a strategy.
BTC/LTC Spread - no bottom yet I'm affraidWith the recent topping action in BTC it has been interesting and a little disappointing to watch LTC's outright failure. Indeed, Litecoin's inability to hold significant support levels has both broken its bullish bias and once again brought it's relevance as #2 to BTC into question. With this relationship continuing to decouple, I thought I would take a moment today and look at the historical relationship between the two to see if the spread's relationship (and really its trend) may hint at future expectations.
Here then is a nice four hour chart of that spread (LTC/BTC) going back to last fall. Needless to say, it has been a very tough past six months for the bulls. A bear market is defined simply as lower highs and lower lows and that is basically what has transpired; especially so since the failure of the winter trading range lows at .02124. The sky's did brighten a bit through the end of May as it looked like a capitulation bottom had been formed. After a two week consolidation, bull's hearts where broken once again as we have now broken through the bottom of that range. Price has now reached the original double bottom that started the meteoric rise late last November and the bulls are left to ponder if this old significant level is 'the bottom'. Unfortunately, until we stop making new lows and start making new relative highs, I can't make the bullish case here. Indeed, with the recent failure of the top of the original double bottom (.1625) three very real downside targets present themselves.
1. Bearish BoT target .01354
2. Gap at .00913
3. 200% extension of the winter trading range failure: .00716
So what can we infer from this rather negative outlook? Here are a few of my thoughts: While attractive, there is no long trade on this spread at the moment. One could argue that bear "BoT' setups (a way to play bear ab=cd harmonic price patterns) are perfectly realistic into stated downside targets. Until we start to see a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, bulls must sit and wait.
Cheers all and hope it helps
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Short term short. Long term long.These are some situations that could happen. The 3rd one is the one I feel may be the most likely on reflection having seen this type of action before. I feel resistance is weak however support is exhausted from recent gains so may just dip slightly while support is gathered ready to break through the $700 barrier.
Historical LTC/BTC Momentum Analysis So unless anyone hasn't noticed, Bitcoin broke out of a massive bear triangle at $450 two weeks ago and sparked this gigantic rally that we are all enjoying today (unless you sold at the bottom). However, Litecoin has yet to breakout of it's own bear trend, and historically, it is always late to do so. So I spent some time charting this today and discovered that LTC and specifically LTC\BTC is primed to explode. As the cycle continues, attention will be moving to alt-coins in the next few weeks as people who "missed the boat" on Bitcoin look for other alternatives. Additionally, people who are invested with Bitcoin look for and learn for things to do with them, and more often than not they find alt-coins. Even if it doesn't happen for a few more days, it certainly is something that I am keeping an eye on.
And for those who are asking, on this scale I used RSI and RMI because other indicators get a bit... schizophrenic at this timescale.
