LITECOIN about to break-out to its parabolic rally.Litecoin (LTCUSD) is on its 3rd historic Cycle and just recovered its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). All Cycles have a Top, Bear Phase, Accumulation phase under Lower Highs and finally Parabolic Rallies.
It appears that we are currently about to complete the pre-rally Lower Highs accumulation phase, which will be confirmed after the price breaks above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line.
Technically it can go as high as the 1.1 Fibonacci extension ($500.00) but we will settle for the time being for an ATH test at $400.00 if this is where we will be by the time the price starts approaching the top of the Sine Wave.
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Ltcusdsignals
LITECOIN making the Cyclical Bullish breakout you MUST NOT MISS!Litecoin (LTCUSD) has managed to make a Triple Bullish Break-out as not only did it break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line), both of which have been Resistances since August 2023 but also above the Lower Highs trend-line that started at the May 10 20221 top of the previous Cycle.
This constitutes a Cyclical Bullish break-out because as you can see, every time LTC broke above the Lower Highs trend-line in the past 2 Cycles, it confirmed the official start of the parabolic rally to a new All Time High (ATH).
Our target is $450, which is just below the ATH Higher Highs, a level that has been hit on both previous Cycles. If broken, LTC can even reach as high as $700 or even $1000 (1.382 Fibonacci extension) but those are overstretched technical levels that would require extremely positive fundamentals.
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LITECOIN Halving only a few hours away! Is it bullish or not?Litecoin (LTCUSD) is having its 3rd Halving event in less than 5 hours from the time this analysis was constructed. The question on everyone's mind is how will this affect the price action? Will it be bullish or bearish? A reliable way to answer this is by looking into the past events and how those affected LTC.
The previous two Halvings were on August 05 2019 (Halving 2) and August 25 2015 (Halving 1) respectively. All halving events have caught the price on a pull-back after a break above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. During the previous two, the price managed to reach the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, while on the current Cycle it came $25 shy of it.
It appears that the current Bull Cycle has started on a slower pace than the previous two, as also illustrated on the 1W RSI, which hasn't yet crossed the 70.00 overbought barrier. They key is the Lower Highs trend-line, which on all Halvings made contact with the pre-Halving Lower High and once broken the price never made a Lower Low again. If you want to take the safest buy entry possible, wait for that break-out to happen.
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LITECOIN is rallying and can reach $250 based on this fractal.Litecoin (LTCUSD) is rebounding on its 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 3D MA200 (orange trend-line). If it breaks above the Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line (dashed line), then it might imitate the October 2020 rally. So far the two sequences are fairly similar, even on MACD terms. A break-out rally similar to Oct 2020 can hit the 0.786 Fibonacci extension and print $250.00
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LTCUSDT Hit the 1D MA20 for the first time since 2021!*** ***
For this particular analysis on Litecoin we are using the LTCUSDT symbol on the OKX exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where LTC hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 05 2021! It is easy to realize that closing above such a long-term Resistance will be a major bullish break-out.
The sentiment has already been bullish starting from the June 14 bottom, while at the same time the RSI on the 1W time-frame has been continuously rising. On the short-term a break above the 1D MA200 would still be limited below the top of the Channel Up, but a break above the 0.382 would confirm the major break-out and we can target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Until it breaks, a rejection on the 1D MA200, is short-term bearish towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is the current Support.
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LTCUSDT Bullish and bearish levels to watch*** ***
For this particular analysis on LITECOIN we are using the LTCUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where Litecoin (LTCUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the May 10 2021 High. On May 12 2022, the price hit the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of this Channel Down for the first time since June 22 2021, and rebounded. Let's see under what conditions this rebound can be sustainable or not.
First of all, as long as the price trades below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is bearish short-term and below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) bearish long-term. However on May 23 2021, when the price rebounded above the 0.236 Fib, it reached as High as the 0.5 Fib where it failed. On the other hand when it broke above the 0.5 Fib on August 12 2021, the rise extended as high as the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down. As a result, we can claim that only a break above the 0.5 Fib can give a longer-term rise.
On the more short-term, if the price breaks above the 0.236 Fib, it is more likely to post a 0.618 Fib rally, as this happened two times (Jan 22 2022 and Feb 24 2022 where 0.236 was the Support), against the one failed break-out on June 29 2021.
The bearish levels to watch is of course the bottom of the Channel Down. A 1D candle close below it, will most likely open the way to the lower Fibs of -0.236 and -0.382 within a 2 month time-frame.
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Is this the start of the parabolic run for LITECOIN?This is a simple comparison on LTCUSD of the current cycle with the previous. As seen on the chart, on March 2017, Litecoin broke above the accumulation sequence that was contained under a Lower Highs trend-line and that 1W candle was what kick-started its parabolic Bull Run.
Right now the situation is exactly the same. The current 1W candle is the strongest since April 2019 and just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line with the MA50 well is support. Can this be the start of the new parabolic run?
This is something I looked at last time in September:
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LITECOIN Is it a lost cause?In my book, LTC has been one of the disappointments of the year. The main reason is the inability to break the Lower High trend-line of the long-term Channel Down on the 1W chart. In fact, the recent mid-August top was made exactly on the trend-line.
There is light in the tunnel though as the RSI is slightly ascending, while the LMACD is stable too and since the December 2018 bottom we haven't made a Lower Low. However in my opinion it is now or never and the Channel Down should break upwards before the end of the year if LTC wants to revitalize investor confidence.
Do you think the time to break above is approaching?
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LTCUSD Did Litecoin bottom?Litecoin just broke above the Lower High trend line that started with the June 2019 top. Is this a Bottom and thus a long term bullish sign?
Well a quick comparison with the Dec 2018 - Jan 2019 bottom sequence shows that when the long term Lower High trend line (dashed) breaks, the Bottom is in. The RSI sequences of the two periods is also similar. So what I am expecting is a pull back to LTC's high volatility zone in order to gather up some more buying momentum and then an even stronger rebound towards the 1W Resistance. $64.000 seems like a good first Target for long term traders.
LITECOIN Found support on 1W MA50. Will history repeat itself?The title really says it all. LTC is trading around the 1W MA50 on a possible mid term support event for the current Bull Cycle, which is methodically repeating the 2015 sequence. This MA period previously held throughout 2015 - early 2017 up until Litecoin initiated its super strong rise to the mid $300s peak.
Notice how the Top-to-bottom and bottom-to-Halving bottom phases between the 2 cycles have been virtually identical.
There is no reason to expect something different this time. Unless we see a major divergence below the 1W MA50, I expect this level to attract buyers and give sporadic spikes on a lengthy consolidation until the next super strong parabolic rise.
Litecoin made the Halving bottom. Long term consolidation ahead.LTC just experienced the Halving event. The current cycle is repeating methodically the 2015 sequence and so far we have reached the point where the 1D MA200 is supporting. This MA period previously held throughout 2015 - early 2017 up until Litecoin initiated its super strong rise to the mid $300s peak.
There is no reason to expect something different this time. Unless we see a major divergence below the 1D MA200, I expect this level to attract buyers and give sporadic spikes on a lengthy consolidation until the next super strong parabolic rise that should come through massive adoption.
LTCUSD Road-map to the previous All Time HighsLitecoin is trading on a very simple pattern. On the Fibonacci Channel, every level crossed eventually turns into a support. While this support is provided, LTC is targeting the Lower Highs of the former bear cycle. If this sequence is sustained then the next targets are 185.000 and 370.000.
What's the top for Litecoin? 113 or 180? Is it worth waiting?Litecoin has continued its crazy rise since the December 2018 bottom and only recently made the Golden Cross (MA200/50) which paved the way for last week's $98 Top.
You can't say I didn't warn you about this super aggressive rise in February when LTC was trading at $49 as seen below:
Now, almost 100% higher it may be a good idea to take profit. There are two scenarios that can play out:
A top at 113.00, which is according to the 2014/15 bear market the spot where the price topped on -36% from the MA200 top.
A top at 180.00, which is the +718% rise from December's bottom.
In both cases LTCUSD should then pull back around -70% and consolidate for a long period of time before the next bull market.
So long term traders should manage their profit taking accordingly.