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EURUSD 15 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High maybe more above. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful the the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 4. Price is currently at the Daily/4H Supply zones and Swing extreme. Our expectations that we will reach the Weak Swing High and extend more. But be mindful that there are no options for longs here as the move already started from the Swing Discount and currently we are at the extreme premium. As we are at the end of the week and the year, better to observe the market and prepare yourself to the next year runs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Price still in Bullish continuation after the BOS creating Bullish Internal structures. Price mitigated Daily/4H Supply zones and could start a pullback at anytime. A Bearish iBOS will be the signal that the pullback maybe starting. Be mindful that the current bullish momentum is going to extend to reach the 4H Swing high so still we have another leg up before a pullback. Always waiting for solid confirmation will be the right decision. 3. Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 14 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR Interest Rate This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bullish as expected and we are currently in 4H Swing continuation targeting the Weak Swing High maybe more above. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback but be mindful the the current solid bullish momentum and that we are currently Pro Swing and Pro Internal, pullbacks will not be deep so be patient and cautious and utilize LTF to guide you. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 4. Price swept liquidity on the left but didn't mitigate any supply zone to initiate the pullback. We have the Daily/4H Supply zone that can provide reaction (Not expecting a deep reaction) that can provide a pullback before we reach the Weak Swing High. 5. Fundamentally: The Fed showed the acceptance to the market expectations on rate cuts next year which is bearish USD. We will continue bullish till next CPI/NFP reports which can provide more confirmation for the next FOMC meeting. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Swing turned Bullish creating BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. First sign of the pullback maybe starting will be a CHOCH. Expectations that price can pullback to demand areas to continue bullish. But be mindful that with that solid bullish momentum, pullbacks will not be deep. Also price didn't mitigate any HTF POI yet to initiate the pullback, so most probably we will continue the leg up before any decent pullback. NOTE: Today is EUR Interest Rate Decision. 3. Potential Demand Zone within the current internal and in the Swing Discount.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 11 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bearish to liquidate the INT Low (Liquidity above the Daily Demand) and mitigated the daily demand zone. INT Structure is currently bearish, so we are still bearish and there is a high probability that we may break the Swing Low as per the Daily/Weekly Bearish Continuation. On the other side, 4H/Daily Swings are bullish and we are at the extremes. If we are going to continue these bullish structure then at least we need to see Bullish iBOS on the 4H. We also could benefit from LTFs to show us early if that daily mitigation could develop to be a Swing Continuation on the 4H/Daily. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned bearish after NFP and tapped into a Daily Demand Zone where we started the 15m Swing/INT Pullback. Currently we are bearish in Structure on 15m and 4H. My expectations is that if we are going to continue down we need to respect the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs and we can continue bearish. If we invalidated the 15m Swing / 4H INT Highs then we are going to play longs for the Daily Structure. 3. No Supply zones for Shorts that can be potential. 4. No significant Demand zones to hold price.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 8 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. INT structure turned bullish which is a sign that the Swing pullback my had finished and we could continue up following the Bullish Swing. We didn't mitigate any HTF POI till now for this INT structure to hold. May be the daily range on the left could be the reason of the INT to turn bullish! We will see after. Currently we are mitigating the 4H demand that caused the Bullish iBOS and as long we respect the INT Low the possibility of moving up from his is high. Waiting for LTF to show me more developments. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned bullish after a series of bearish structures which indicates that the 4H Swing pullback may ended and we may continue the Bullish 4H Swing move. Current bullish Swing structure is a sign of bullishness but looking on the left, we still in a range which is not convincing much and could be a a pause in the market before heading down again. Away from that, as long i trust the structure and accept the outcome from it, i'll be looking for longs to continue that bullish Swing as long we don't break the Swing low and form again a bearish Structure. 3. 15m Demand within the 4H Demand which could provide opportunity for longs as long we respect the Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis -EUR GDP / US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Price had created a Bearish INT Structure and it could be targeting the 4H Demand within the Swing extreme. Currently price is in Swing pullback phase and the Bullish continuation could start at anytime from the Swing Discount. It's preferred to mitigate a Demand zone to give more confidence. Will be waiting for LTF (15m) to support the decision with bullish structure formation. 3. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Price still in a series of bearish structures (Swing/Internal) as we didn't mitigate yet any HTF POI. We formed Swing Low yesterday after a Bullish iBOS but it didn't hold for a pullback phase. My expectations is price may continue down to a HTF POI and we can see after a change to a bullish structure to confirm that the 4H Swing pullback is over and we may continue the Bullish Swing. Currently Shorts is the play with the current Bearish Swing from Supply zones that are well positioned in Premium. For Longs, i'll wait for the mitigation of a HTF Demand zone or the 15m Swing/Internal turn bullish.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR Retail Sales / US ADPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started. Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure. Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime. There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Also we didn't mitigate any HTF POI to initiate a pullback yet. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts. Currently the 15m INT is in a series of bearish structures so most probably we will continue bearish till we reach a HTF POI.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 5 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Price created a bearish iBOS which confirmed the Swing High and the Pullback started. Price tapped into the Discount and we may start the Pullback for the bearish INT Structure. Price could sweep the Liq. above the CHoCH and continue down. But be mindful that the Swing is Bullish and we could see the Swing bullish continuation at anytime. There is no high probability demand that price can start the pullback from and the only one available currently at the Swing extreme. Due to that, better to see structure change on LTF before looking for Longs. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 4 Dec 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 4 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. The pullback pushed down and swept the Liq. below the Stron INT Low and reached the Swing EQ. It's a tough call now! We have the 2 options valid (Buy / Sell) but we need to see more price development and confirmation to trigger. Option 1 Buy: I'll be waiting to see if price will confirm the failure to close below the INT Low and it was a sweep of Liq. below strong low from the LTF Structure changing to bullish. Option 2 Sell: I'll be waiting for the INT Structure to shift bearish which will confirm the Swing High and we can look now for shorts after the INT pullback. But be cautious that we already reached the Swing EQ and buyers will step in now. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish 2. Swing structure turned bearish creating a BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback. INT structure is bearish which means we still in the bearish continuation until we have a Bullish iBOS. Price taped into the 15m and 4H Supply that caused the bearish BOS and till now holding. I'll be waiting for Bullish iBOS to play the 15m Swing pullback or wait for the 4H Bearish iBOS to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback started to play Shorts.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 1 Dec 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PMI / Powell SpeaksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Dec 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share update on my current short trade on EURUSD. The trade is currently active and secured by moving SL to BE. My current target is the 15m Swing Low/4H INT Low/Daily CHoCH. My current understanding that we are bullish in structures (15m Swing/ 4H INT / Daily INT) and i should either close my current short or look to long. But as i planned the trade from the start targeting the Liquidity on the Daily i wouldn't change my plan within the trade unless something significant occur (15m INT Structure turns Bullish). By sticking to the plan, i can evaluate my trading analysis and planning to find out where i can improve my trades. In other words what you planed is what you'll get. Currently there is a chance that price can reverse from here as we are at 15m / 4H Bullish structures extreme. Trade 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expected a pullback. We created a CHOCH and price continued the pullback for the INT Bullish Structure. Currently we are at the INT Discount/Extreme but there is high probability demand area to contain price from my point of view. Yes, Price could continue the bullish momentum and 4H INT Bullish continuation move. But i prefer to have a well defined Demand Zone to look for trades from. There is also a pullback required from the 4H Swing which we didn't have it till now and the Daily Liquidity (INT Low on the 4H) could be the target for the daily to get Liquidity for more up side. That's why i don't prefer to trade from an area without seeing Liquidity taken. Let's see what the LTFs will tell us and we can adopt accordingly while keeping our HTF analysis always in play. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish In Discount / Extreme 2. As internal Structure turned bearish yesterday. Price continuing bearish and reached the 15m Swing Extreme. Our expectations that after this deep pullback and if we are going to stay bullish on the 15m Swing, Price could start the bullish 15m Swing continuation. But the INT structure still bearish so no confirmation yet. there is a risky option that i can see is that the INT to INT Structure turned bullish which could be the first sign for bullish momentum coming after this deep swing pullback. It's Friday and December starting which is not a preferred trading month. So i'll be cautious with the current price structure and wait for solid options. 3. INT Structure is in bearish momentum after starting the pullback. Yesterday EU CPI news was a catalyst for that deep pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
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EURUSD 30 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI / End of Month!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis, i want to share my trade taken yesterday based on the analysis shared with the idea of looking for Shorts to play the pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. As per the plan yesterday, i was waiting for Bearish INT Structure to signal that the pullback had started and i can look for Shorts after. We did that yesterday and formed a Bearish CHoCH on the 4H where i took my shorts in anticipation that the INT Bearish Structure will hold bearish to facilitate the pullback. I know it will not be a smooth trade because we are trading against the trend, but as per the plan i can trade these options with cautious. This is the current trade for reference on 15m Chart: 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Bullish iBOS we expect a pullback. We created a CHOCH yesterday which confirmed the INT High and the pullback of the INT Structure started. Most probably we will be targeting the Demand zone in the 4H Swing Discount before looking for longs. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. INT Structure turned Bearish to signal the 15m Swing Pullback and we are in short term bearish momentum. Most probably price will be targeting the unmitigated 4H / 15m Demand zones and the Swing EQ for this pullback. Could extend to the Swing Extreme but our expectations is to look for longs from the extreme after confirmation. Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price had mitigated the 4H Supply and created a CHoCH on the 4H which created a new Supply that was mitigated within the current Bearish INT Structure.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EU CPI/US GDP, BaileyThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price did another Bullish iBOS and reached a 4H Supply and mitigating a Daily Supply. We are expecting a pullback for the INT Structure and the first sign will be a bearish fractal CHoCH which will be the 15m Bearish iBOS. Be mindful that the Bullish momentum is so strong and shorts wouldn't be a smooth ride, So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. As expected, price created another Bullish BOS following the Bullish momentum. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. The first sign that the pullback maybe starting is a Bearish Fractal CHoCH. But as we formed INT Structures after the BOS, then we will wait for INT Structure to turn bearish first to: 1- Confirm a Swing High 2- Confirm that the pullback is starting Be Mindful that the Bullish momentum is strong and shorts will not be a smooth ride. 3. Price is currently mitigating a 4H and Daily Supply Zones. Pullback could start from here, but as we identified in the previous point that we need a confirmation with a Bearish iBOS. Longs are currently the only play from the INT Demand areas after confirmation till INT Lows fails and we get the bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 28 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price reached the extreme of the Bullish INT Structure and we may react only from there as our expectations is to reach (And maybe extend above) the Weak INT HIgh. So the current supply there may provide some bearish reaction, but our expectations on the 4H TF is to continue up. But keep in mind that the bearish scenario we have from the Weekly and Daily could be starting from this area or a bit higher. In all ways, bearish scenario will be confirmed with bearish structure formation which we don't have till now. So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure continuing bullish following the 15m Swing bullish structure and our expectations is to reach the Swing high and most probably we will take it out. 3. Price still moving to the upside but i can see there is no momentum. So my expectations that we can see a break of the INT/Swing High, mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply and then we can start a pullback. There is no confirmation yet for the shorts, So most probably will wait for at least a bearish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 27 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. After the Swing BOS, we expected a pullback but price still in Bullish momentum and still creating Bullish INT Structures. We didn't have Swing pullback till now which will be identified by a Bearish iBOS. Price reached the extreme of the Bullish INT Structure and we may react only from there as our expectations is to reach (And maybe extend above) the Weak INT HIgh. So the current supply there may provide some bearish reaction, but our expectations on the 4H TF is to continue up. But keep in mind that the bearish scenario we have from the Weekly and Daily could be starting from this area or a bit higher. In all ways, bearish scenario will be confirmed with bearish structure formation which we don't have till now. So patience is always the key of success! plan and wait for confirmation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure continuing bullish following the 15m Swing bullish structure and our expectations is to reach the Swing high and most probably we will take it out. 3. My expectations is if price managed to break the 15m Swing High and confirm a BOS, Most probably we will initiate a Pullback from mitigating the 4H/Daily Supply zones. Shorts are not confirmed as the momentum is bullish. but planning before is important.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Following the bullish INT Structure, after the iBOS we pulled back to the structure extreme and mitigated the 4H demand. Currently price is mitigating the formed demand from the bullish CHoCH. Current expectation is to target the INT High. But be mindful that the Swing Pullback could happen at anytime and the current INT Bullish structure can fail to start the pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. INT Structure turned Bullish to Signal that the 15m Swing is over and we are currently targeting the Weak Swing High. If price going to respect the current INT Low there is a high probability that we are going to continue up. So this demand zone is the last opportunity for longs to continue up. 3. Price didn't mitigate any 15m/4H supply up. So we may have another push to the up side specially after the Bullish iBOS.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 23 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR PMI / US HolidayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before i start my analysis, i want to share the current trade that i planned it in my analysis yesterday in regards to the buy opportunity from the 4H Demand. Current trade is based on the idea of following the Bullish structure on 15m and 4H and as long the 15m Swing is bullish, i'll be looking for longs from 4H demand. This is the current long trade with SL now at BE as we reached the INT Bearish Structure Extreme Supply. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Swing low and last demand for potential buys. 3. Following the bullish INT Structure, after the iBOS we pulled back to the structure extreme and mitigated the 4H demand. Current expectation is to target the INT High. But be mindful that the Swing Pullback could happen at anytime and the current INT Bullish structure can fail to start the pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. Price in bearish INT Structure to facilitate the 15m Bullish Swing pullback. We reached the discount and almost the extreme and mitigated a fresh 4h demand zone. Most probably if this Swing is going to hold bullish, we are expecting the INT structure to turn bullish and target the Swing High. 3. Current INT Bearish structure extreme supply zone which could provide short opportunities to continue bearish. But be mindful that we reached the discount and mitigated the 4H Demand.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 22 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We did a CHoCH but it was only a Sweep of Liquidity and even the 15m didn't close below the Structure. 3. Price still in a Bullish momentum after the 4H BOS. We didn't mitigate the Daily/4H Supply yet but it did a CHoCH and confirmed INT High after the bullish iBOS. Currently price in an INT Structure Pullback and most probably the 4H Demand will be a good area for Longs if there is conformation from LTF (15m) 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. As mentioned yesterday we were looking for a sign for the pullback and with the bearish iBOS we confirmed a Swing High and we are currently bearish to facilitate the Swing Pullback. We didn't mitigate the Daily Supply, but keep in mind that price doesn't have to mitigate it before going down. Always follow the structure and what does it tells you and not to follow what you want price to do. Most probably a pullback after the iBOS will be an opportunity for Shorts if we didn't tap into discount or deep in the Swing Discount. If we are in a deep pullback then most probably will look for longs from the 4H Demand zone.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 21 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - FOMC Minutes DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 21 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We did a CHoCH but it was only a Sweep of Liquidity and even the 15m didn't close below the Structure. 3. Price still in a Bullish momentum after the 4H BOS. We are approaching the Daily and 4H Supply zones which could provide a pullback. The pullback will be tough to play and will require a 4H Bearish iBOS which is currently far from here. Most probably the LTF (15m) will give us a clue if there will be some relief for a pullback from this Daily/4H Supply Zones. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After the 15m BOS we expect a pullback. Price still in the continuation phase and no signs of pullback starting. a Bearish iBOS will be the first sign. Price is approaching the Daily and 4H Supply Zones, the Pullback could start from there but we need a confirmation (Bearish iBOS) Playing the pullback will be after the bearish iBOS and be mindful that the pullbacks in nature is rough ride. 3. The most probable demand zones within the new 15m Swing is the Extreme and the one above as both are below EQ (In Discount)
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 20 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 20 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We did a CHoCH but it was only a Sweep of Liquidity and even the 15m didn't close below the Structure. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. The CHoCH that happened just confirmed the INT High and it was only Sweep of Liquidity due to the aggressive bullish move. Currently we have a Bullish iBOS and again we are expecting a Pullback which could start from the current 4H Supply or i prefer to Sweep the Liquidity above the Weekly supply and we will be starting a nice pullback to the 4H Swing and it could evolve to a Weekly / Daily bearish continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback. The first sign will be a CHoCH which price did but it created instead a bullish INT Structure. So the bearish iBOS will be a sign that the pullback is starting. We are mitigating the 4H and Daily Supply zones and there is high probability that we will take these zones out as of the Weekly and Daily Liquidity required. Playing the pullback will be after the bearish iBOS and be mindful that the pullbacks in nature is rough ride. 3. The most probable demand zones within the new 15m Swing is the Extreme and the one above as both are below EQ (In Discount)
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 17 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Yesterday the CHoCH was below the 4H Demand (FLIP) down, which is far away for price to reach to indicate that the 4H is starting a pullback. Put price yesterday with US news created a new high and for that the CHoCh is moved to the upside. If price did the CHoCH today and hold the supply formed that then there will be a better probability that that pullback is starting. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Price did another Bullish BOS yesterday with US news. This means that in order for price to start the Swing pullback on the 4H, we want to see a break of the Swing Low in order to have a Bearish Structure on the 15m and the 4H will have the CHoCH which is an indication for the pullback. Buys makes sense because the 15m Swing in still bullish but the HTF are looking for a pullback so there is more probability we will have this pullback soon. 3. There are no unmitigated POIs in this Bullish Swing for longs. So the ChoCH on the 4H idea and the current 15m Swing low being near is adding for me a probability that we will take out the 15m Swing Low / 4H CHoCH to initiate the pullback. Most probably Monday will be interesting to see the setup. Have all a nice weekend.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 16 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i'm expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Still there is no Fractal CHoCH to indicate that may be the Pullback is starting. So we may have another push to the upside to mitigate the 4H Supply up before we start the Swing Pullback. If price didn't create a new high, then we can look on the LTF to guide us for potential Pullback from the current Daily Zone. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, with the Bearish iBOS, we confirmed 15m Swing High and the start of the Pullback. Currently price in a series of bearish structures to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. Following that bearish structure till we reach the Swing EQ or the INT Structure turns bullish to confirm that the pullback is over and we are in the Bullish Swing Continuation. 3. Potential Supply zone for Shorts if we are continuing the Swing Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
URUSD 15 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - US PPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis. i want to note that as price moved a lot yesterday it becomes difficult to have a proper trade as the momentum is so bullish, can't long the highs or trying to follow the continuation of that volatility as you want to wait for price to pullback to proper and well defined POI's. On the other hand trying to play a pullback against this Bullish move will be rough and you need to have expectation that you could get caught several times trying to pick a high before the actual pullback. Overall i'll be very cautious this week till we have a proper structure at least on the 15m to play accordingly. So lets start the analysis! 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish 2. Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i'm expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting. We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it's also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs. 3. Price had fully mitigated a 4H supply within the Daily Supply zone. My expectation is if a pullback will start, there is a high probability that we can get this pullback from this zone. But be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride. Will let the LTF (15m) guide me. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bullish 2. Swing structure continuing bullish and we managed to create another Bullish BOS yesterday with CPI news as expected. After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Which we already did and we confirmed INT High currently. If price wants to do a pullback i prefer to have the INT structure turning bearish first and then we can look for Shorts in the pullback phase. Currently price had fully mitigated a 4H Supply within a daily supply zone. So, a bearish INT Structure will be a good sign that the pullback is starting. Just be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride. 3. Possible demand zones for longs when we reach that levels
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 14 Nov 2023 Intraday Analysis - EUR ZEW+GDP - USD CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m Before the analysis today, i want to mention that as per my analysis yesterday i was not interested in Shorting EURUSD, Instead i wanted to go long for the following reasons: We are in Pullback Phase on the daily. 4H Swing is Bullish and we may have finished the Swing Pullback and we are in the Swing continuation. 15m Swing is still bullish for me, so better to look for buys when price reaches some low POIs within the 15m Swing. As this is the CPI week for USD and market is waiting for this news. If the forecasts are showing lower numbers that means USD will be weak and there is a chance that EURUSD will run up. So if i can position myself with the structure and the anticipation of News prior to news day, and if news comes in my favor; i'll be riding a nice run. If not, then nothing much to lose. So i managed yesterday to position my self in and Long entry at 1.0673 based on the above knowing that i'm against the current INT Structure but in anticipation of maybe if price can hold the up side till news and news comes in my favor i can be holding a nice move. Current screenshot from my trade. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Price had swept the Liq below the 4H zone and we could be now targeting the previous high formed. Price is tapped into the 4H Supply zone and there is a probability of bearish move from there. But keep in mind that maybe the 4H Swing pullback is over and we are currently in Swing continuation. Will let the LTF (15m) guide me for the move. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. S wing Bullish Internal Bearish INT INT Bullish 2. INT Structure is bearish and we reached the last part of the the supply zone on the left that was formed from the bearish iBOS. Also after tapping into the 4H Supply, price reacted and formed bearish IN INT Structure but managed after to recover nicely which means that we still have a room to the upside. What i'm looking for is to have a break of the current Strong Bullish INT High in order for us to continue up. Failure to do so, will result in a deep push to the down side containing that INT Structure bearish move and maybe a deep pullback on the 4H within the bullish 4H Swing Structure. 3. The last unmitigated 15m Demand in this INT INT Structure to hold for possible continuation to the upside if we are going up.
by Amr-Sadek
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EURUSD 13 Nov 2023 Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bearish 2. After a BOS we expect a pullback, As we did a CHoCH on the 4H and iBOS on the 15m the pullback started and tapped into a 4H Demand Zone. Price had swept the Liq below the 4H zone and we could be now targeting the previous high formed. Failure to break the previous high will put us in a deeper pullback within the 4H Bullish structure. Always will let the LTF (15m) to guide me. 3. 4H Demand zone could hold the price to continue up after sweeping liquidity on the left. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish Internal Bearish 2. Price is in a series of unclear INT structures moving from bearish to bullish to bearish to bullish to bearish which is a clear indication of indecision and ranging. Recent structure is bearish so most probably we will have the selling pressure from the 4H Supply zone and most of the 15m zones are mitigated there. I'll be on the sideline until we turn INT bullish (iBOS) then will be looking to play the longs again. Shorts are not currently in my plan as 4H Swing and Daily OF are both still bullish, so will not play against. 3. 15m Demand is mitigated and most probably the INT low will be taken as we are in a bearish INT Structure.
by Amr-Sadek