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BTCUSD: Hodlers will capitulate, peak 'Brrrrrr' stupidity...I suspect the weekly down trend will extend towards the downside target suggested by the monthly timeframe here. Since the Fed announced their 'whatever it takes / infinite QE' approach towards containing the economic shock caused by the COVID19 induced panic, Bitcoin enthusiasts were quick to find yet another excuse to be all in, and justify their expectations, despite the downside move that started from 9950 a few weeks ago. Since short sellers covered part of their positions at 3850 after margin calling everyone who was margin long on Earth, holders have regained confidence quickly and now expect bullish price action to come here, accepting this idea as Gospel and being quite vocal and emotional about it. The fact so many expect this (together with the stock market to fall further) and the halving to be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin I think the opposite is true and we will get a Bakkt 2.0 style event. Once Bitcoin can't surge after the halving short sellers will push harder, and as prices slide on lack of demand, holders will start to panic and rush to send coins to exchanges, causing slow block times, until the next difficulty adjustment to come during June probably (1k blocks later), as miners turn off machines on the way down. The next logical support level in the long term chart resides at 1500 or nearby, which would make the bleeding stop just shy of filling the 'all time high retest' theorists' buy orders, leaving them eating dust as the market stages a furious come back rally. If on the other hand prices glide sideways until then and then break over 7411.85 this scenario will be put in question. If valid we can get daily timeframe down trend signals to short it soon. My clients will be the first to know, when we can trade with good reward to risk and probability. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
31
Bitcoin vs GBTC: An etf will be approved by Jan 15thI think someone thinks like me here, RgMov is surging in this ratio, showing $BTC outpace $GBTC, Barry Silbert's shady fund, that trades at a massive premium since forever, due to it being the only way to get $BTC exposure for most people with brokerage accounts since basically forever. Once an ETF is viable, premium will vanish, making this a good bet, if you find a broker that lets you short it (and are able to buy real $BTC or futures at Bakkt or CME for the same dollar amount as you short in $GBTC shares). Risk 7% to make up to 30-40% on this trade. 15% allocation would be a good fit. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CME:BTC1!Long
by IvanLabrie
12
BAC: Confirmed long term trend...I published this one only now, I've been long for a good while, and banked profits recently. I bought $BAC today, near the closing price. I think this stock is primed for a huge rally, that will end in a new all time high by 2021. Definitely one of the strongest long reccomendations I can make to benefit from the long term trend that is active in the S&P500 right now. Management is very competent, and earnings reports have been very positive for the company since banking regulations started being eased recently. This is a big positive for financials, and with $BAC's capable CEO continuing to reach their goals on time, reducing costs and operating at huge efficiency ($BAC has one of the highest efficiency ratios among its peers), and most people pessimistic about the outlook of the economy and the stock market, the path of least resistance is up.
NYSE:BACLong
by IvanLabrie
NGAS: Natural gas is a low risk buyI think Nat Gas is bottoming here for a while. It can swing up strongly, if it holds up. We have 4 days without going any lower, soon to be 5, the next move is going up and retesting the key level at 2.27, if holding over it, the next level is 2.88. We have 5 months already, where price stayed higher than the lowest low which took place back in August 2019. A higher high by February would be extremely constructive for $NGAS. A 3 times the daily Average True Range indicator value stop loss distance would give long positions enough room to breathe, in case it didn't yet bottom in the daily chart. Normally this is a good stop loss methodology, to buy into mid term positions and avoid short term noise. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:NGASLong
by IvanLabrie
USDNOK: Overextended, at quarterly support...USDNOK is in an active quarterly uptrend, and now retested a good long term support level. Longs from this zone are likely a very safe proposition, problem is having a safe enough stop loss for the trade, since the time duration of the trend is very long. Price should rebound here, and if it does, it would be a huge reward to risk trade to go long with a tight stop. Alternatively, you can trade with a wider stop under 8.5234, to ride the quarterly trend, both are valid risk management approaches here. I'm choosing the former, since I want to squeeze a very high reward to risk trade if the signal works. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
CGC: Pot stocks likely bottomed, the last of the sellers soldI think #CGC is being accumulated as it bases sideways here, since most people probably sold after it bottomed recently. As pointed out by @timwest, tax loss harvesting might have played a part in the supply that came to the market recently, which should be over by today. I'll be accumulating shares gradually here, currently bought a half position before the close today. A fun fact, I calculated to risk 0.5% of the capital based on 3 times the value of the ATR indicator, which gave me a total of 420 shares per 100k in the account. :p The long term trend has a failed uptrend that needs to be invalidated here, if it holds up and moves over $25-26 it will be a very interesting play during 2020. Happy new year everyone!
CLong
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: Weekly trend signal activeIt seems there is a mid term opportunity to be long precious metals for 12 weeks here. I'm long since last week again, as a way of reducing risk from my net long equities exposure (roughly 21% net long, I'm short $AAPL, $AMZN, $NFLX, whilst long $TSLA, $BAC, $INTC). Upside in gold can reach as high as upper 1700s, if this signal pans out favorably. Risk is a drop below last week's opening price give or take. A good opportunity would come if prices retrace this week, or in the next 2 weeks, but it seems unlikely to occur. Currently I'm holding a 1/2 position, with room to add more exposure if needed. My longer term view hasn't changed, stocks are likely to keep rallying during 2020 and until mid 2021 possibly. A major move in gold is still a lower probability scenario, but it's always good to buy it periodically as insurance when there's downside risk in stocks. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
XAGUSD: Weekly downtrend might fail...I think the daily based decently here, and judging by Friday's bar, a trend might be about to gain traction. Silver is likely a good buy from here onwards, should be a good addition to your portfolio, to hedge equities risk, and/or to profit in a speculative FX/Futures account. There will be many trend trading opportunities in precious metals going forward, most likely showing a bigger edge on the long side when viable. IF prices don't go any lower, the weekly trend will become a fail by Dec 23rd, in which case, we could expect a rally back over recent highs at the very least. The situation in Hong Kong might turn investors toward risk off assets here, which might end up benefitting Bitcoin as well. $USDCNH seems to have recovered, and might move higher, so, $XAUCNY will likely trend up as well. I worry that the recent trade deal related optimism might end badly, at least in the short to intermediate term...For this reason I have sold my risk on positions and bought Gold on Friday, and will be looking to buy Silver at the open as well. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Correction might be over...On Friday I bought back into #Gold positions after a long time without having any exposure to the precious metal. Me and my clients entered here: 'Let's buy an #XAUUSD long position here, stop loss @ 1417', this tweet was sent when price was 1454.58, 10:48am UTC-3 at the time. twitter.com If I'm not mistaken the bimonthly trend signal active in $XAUUSD might still be able to propel prices higher from here. I may add some exposure on retrace on Monday, there's a daily signal that might justify adding. I added some more when the 4H timeframe flashed a short term trend signal as well, which happened near 1460 during Friday. If you want to receive timely alerts, feel free to contact me to try my signals service for one month at no cost. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie