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LULU

LULU LevelsNASDAQ:LULU is approaching June Levels. The next major level on the downside would be the gap 249-251. The sellers have had complete control of the shares the past 3 weeks. The 3 lines are the 50 100 and 200 SMA's respectively, LULU had no problem breaking the most active level shown of 317.02 and quickly broke below the 100 SMA. The 200 SMA acts as support. Furthermore LULU has Recently moved into Oversold levels on RSI and has began to show upside on CCI. The future of this stock likely depends on good sales reports, retail seeing action, and a hold of 287.66 next week.
NASDAQ:LULU
by crawfordpaul
2
Lululemon (LULU): The Channel of the Yoga Apparel IndustryIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, I will be providing an in-depth analysis on Lulu Lemon Atheletica Inc. (LULU), by going over its business model, financials, and technicals as well. What is Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)? Lululemon is a company that provides technical athletic apparel for yoga, running, training and most other sweaty pursuits. They differ from other apparel companies in that they offer extremely high end products. M&A (Mergers and Acquisitions) of Mirror - Lululemon acquired the indoors fitness company Mirror for $500m. - Mirror is a company that offers an interactive mirror, which live streams on-demand workout classes for their users at home. - Classes cost $39 per month - Essentially, LULU will be offering a very similar subscription service business model to that of Peloton (PTON) Business Models Athleisure Products - LULU’s main business model is in the athleisure (athletic leisure) apparel industry - They are called the Channel of the yoga apparel industry, not because they simply offer overprices clothing, but because they know exactly who their target audience is - They target not only people who like to wear yoga pants for workouts, but also people who want to look good in these clothes. - Their main target, however, are people who pursue ‘mindfulness’ through activities - There’s definitely a show-off aspect to the apparel as well, as people wear it with pride even on normal occasions. - While trends change, it appears that the athleisure look won’t be fading away anytime soon. - The athleisure market for men is growing as well, as the entire market grows 8% every year, with the potential to reach $517.5 billion according to Grand View Research Direct to Consumer - Another fact noting is that they operate in D2C (Direct to Consumer) - They own the sales channels for online and offline consumers - During this pandemic, they have reinforce their offline sales channels by offering online yoga classes, and introducing SNS-linked shopping features. - As a result, while offline stores’ revenues have decreased by 48% during the pandemic, online D2C sales have increased by 67%, and their online sales have exceeded their offline sales Subscription Service - LULU offers a new subscription service through Mirror - The mirror is a screen that plays fitness instructional videos - It’s anticipated that the revenue generated from Mirror will be around $100 million this year - According to the Bank of America, LULU will be able to raise $700 million in revenue and a subscriber base of 600,000 by 2023. - There’s a lot of synergy to be expected through LULU Lemon’s acquisition of Mirror, as the demographics of people who purchase $400 yoga pants and $1500 worth mirrors match – high income demographics interested in exercise Financials - LULU has shown a 17% yoy revenue increase from their North American regions - Their 2020 Q1 earnings were extremely disappointing as their shops have been directly targeted by the Corona Virus (COVID-19), but a revenue turnaround is anticipated for Q4 - For 2021, we can anticipate LULU’s revenue to hit $4 billion, with their Earnings per Share (EPS) at $4.23 - LULU shows astonishing EPS growth, as it has essentially doubled since 2018. - Not having a middleman for their distribution channel significantly increases their operating profits as well, with their current percentage at 22% - much higher than its counterparts such as Adidas (ADS) or Nike (NKE) - 88% of their revenue is generated from North American countries: Canada and the United States - The company’s market capitalization is valued at 57 times its net profit, based on the 12 month Forward P/E ratio - This is strong evidence for the argument that the company is overvalued. Opportunities -Given that we could anticipate a 28% yoy growth in the Chinese Pilates Market, LULU’s not having expanded to Asian and European markets yet suggests great opportunities for growth - Since 2012, the Chinese population interested in Pilates has doubled to 12.5 million by 2019, and the Pilates apparel market has quadrupled to 9.7 Billion Chinese Yuan. - The founder of LULU invested $100million in Anta – the Chinese Nike- acquiring 0.6% of the company’s share, in regards to their potential penetration of the Chinese market - Anta does offer some Pilates related clothing, but does not have a Pilates apparel brand. Competition -LULU’s demographics also match with that of Peloton (PTON), and as such, we could anticipate fierce competition between the two firms -They are also in a fierce competition with Athleta, a company that designs performance clothes for active women. Athelta is owned by GAP (GPS) Technical Analysis - We can take a look at LULU's daily chart for technical insight - LULU has bounced on the $288 historic support, currently ranging between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels - Should we see further downfall, we could expect a bounce at the $265 historic support - The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is about to form a death cross with the 60 SMA, which has been acting as a strong indicator for uptrends and downtrends - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates the stock having been oversold recently - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows decreasing bearish histograms, and a potential for a golden cross - We have seen these indicators point towards the same direction when the company was hit by the Corona Virus Pandemic, before moving on to triple in price - While the overall trend still remains bullish, we would need further bullish confirmations to gain confidence on the uptrend - Such confirmations would include a breakout leading prices to trade above the 60 SMA, or a close above the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance Conclusion Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is an apparel company that moves like a tech stock. It has extremely high potential, as it implements business diversification through its acquisition of Mirror, and is yet to expand to highly lucrative markets with huge potential such as the Asian and European markets. As I have previously mentioned, ironically, it’ll be the luxury brands/companies that survive through hard times like these. Economic crises is when polarization deteriorates, and spending on luxurious goods increases. LULU does a great job of communicating with its customers and bringing more people in, and as such, their fundamental business model of a luxury brand remains solid.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by Michael_Wang_Official
2
IXIC: What Beta Means When Considering a Stock's Risk If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, I will be providing a thorough explanation on the concept of Beta, and why it's important to consider the Beta value when investing in stocks. Definition Beta is a measure of the volatility , or systematic risk, of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. It is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for stocks. For beta to be meaningful, the stock should be related to the benchmark that is used in the calculation. However, a text-book definition of the concept does not really help us understand what Beta is How to calculate the Beta - To begin with calculating the value, we must first start by spotting the price change of a certain stock in comparison to the market's movement - After a certain period, we collect enough data (grey dotted points), allowing us to plot a trend - With this, we can figure out the relationship between the profitability of the stock we are looking at, and that of the market - Based on the data, we calculate the Beta by dividing the product of the covariance of the stock's returns and the market's returns by the variance of the market's returns over a specified period. Explained Through Examples - We can consider 3 types of stocks: - Stock 1 with a Beta value of 1 - Stock 2 with a Beta value of 0.5 - Stock 3 with a Beta value of 1.5 - We assume that these stocks are all listed on NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) moved up by 10% - Stock 1, which has a Beta value of 1, will show the exact same movement paired to that of the market. It reflects 100% of the market's movement - Stock 2, on the other hand, reflects only half of the market's movement, with a Beta value of 0.5 Thus, it moves up by 5% - Stock 3, moves up by 15% as it has a beta value of 1.5, moves up more drastically than the market value, indicating that the stock is more volatile Four Possible Cases for Beta Values - We can consider four possible cases for Beta values: Beta Value Equal to 1 In this case, the security (stock) shows a strongly correlated movement with the market movement. Examples of such securities include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) such as QQQ which track the Nasdaq 100 index . Adding a stock to a portfolio with a beta of 1.0 doesn’t add any risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn’t increase the likelihood that the portfolio will provide an excess return. Beta Value Less Than 1 A beta value that is less than 1 means that the security is theoretically less volatile than the market. Having a stock with such beta value helps make a portfolio less exposed to risk. Utility stocks often have low betas because they tend to move more slowly than market averages. Beta Value More Than 1 A beta that is greater than 1.0 indicates that the security's price is theoretically more volatile than the market. As in the example above, if a stock's beta is 1.5, it is assumed to be 50% more volatile than the market. Tech stocks tend to have higher betas than the market benchmark. Having a stock with such beta value exposes the portfolio to more risk, but also higher potential returns as well. Negative Beta Value A security with a negative Beta value means that the stock is inversely correlated to the market benchmark. Prime examples of such securities are inverse ETFs, and certain industry groups such as precious metal mining companies, where a negative beta value is commonly found. Real Life Examples - Based on the explanation above, we can now move on to the following examples of stocks listed on NASDAQ for real life examples: Lulu Lemon (LULU), Tesla Motors ( TSLA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Costco (COST), ProShare UltraPro Short QQQ ETF ( SQQQ ) - Based on the NASDAQ Composite's movement (IXIC), we can see how certain stocks in certain sectors react differently, in similar trends - In the case of stocks such as LULU and TSLA , we can see that the Beta value is extremely high, as their corrections and impulse moves are severely exaggerated compared to IXIC - Amazon's movement also reflects a high beta value, but not as high as that of TSLA and LULU - COST, on the other hand, seems to have a beta value close to 1, as it follows the movement of IXIC. It's less risky, as the drops are not as severe, but the potential profits are not too high either - SQQQ , on the other hand, is a 3x leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index . As such, it has an inverse beta value, and shows huge spikes during times of correction for IXIC Limitations of Beta - The beta coefficient theory assumes that stock returns are normally distributed from a statistical perspective, but returns aren’t always normally distributed. - A stock with a very low beta could have smaller price swings, yet it could still be in a long-term downtrend. So from a practical perspective, a low beta stock that's experiencing a downtrend isn’t likely to improve a portfolio’s performance. - While the Beta value is useful in determining a security's short-term risk, it becomes less meaningful for investors attempt to predict a stock's future movements. Conclusion Understanding the concept of Beta is essential in portfolio diversification. A good investor can identify bullish and bearish market trends, and rebalance their portfolio accordingly. A good balance of securities with varying Beta values is imperative for a good balance between risk management and profit maximization.
TVC:IXICEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
3
What to do?? $SPY Crashing?? ($QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $MSFT $WORK )Based on the last 2 june drops, we should ideally bounce near $330 if the sell volume gets weaker tomorrow. Bullish catalyst - round 2 of stim gets approved However, if we don't bounce, we could have a march like drop and would probably be crashing thru the next two levels. $320 , then $300 What's the best play here? Open a strangle options play. 1-3 month out, as we are likely to move violently in 1 direction or another in the next few days.
AMEX:SPYLong
by WallSt007
LULU - Q2 Earnings ExpectationLululemon had an incredible rally last week heading closer into earnings but sold off about 13% from the top. There was support found around the $346 level. We suspect that this is just a pullback. We played the run up last week luckily took profit on our short term 2 day swing trade. We are still bullish heading into Q2 earnings report. WHY? Ecommerce. Q2 was one of the best times for digital advertising. CPM on any major ad platforms were as low as 2017 and it was easy for many brands to scale their businesses online. LULU as one of the leading retailers might surprise a lot of investors with an incredible earnings beat. We'll have to see if their online sales were able to overcome physical store closures. Due to risk of volatility we're holding onto OTM calls expiring in OCT/NOV 2020. Good luck traders. *NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS IS JUST OUR PERSPECTIVE AND WE DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY TRADES WE PUBLISH ON OUR CHANNEL. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by KoreanStreetBets
LULU - 8.49% Potential Profit - Ascending TriangleClear uptrend Support with an Ascending Triangle formed within. Target price set at a new potential resistance line. I suggest entering with a Buy Limit order. If limit is not triggered, I wouldn't chase the run. - Historical uptrend - RSI + Stoch well above 50 - MACD above Signal. Suggested Entry $332.94 Suggested Stop Loss $326.66 Target price $361.20 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NASDAQ:LULULong
by maschera
1
Triple bottom on Macy dating back to 1992 =o !!!! $MWhat is Macys? Macy's, Inc., an omnichannel retail organization, operates stores, Websites, and mobile applications. The company sells a range of merchandise, including apparel and accessories for men, women, and children; cosmetics; home furnishings; and other consumer goods. As of April 1, 2019, it operated approximately 680 department stores under the Macy's and Bloomingdale's names; and 190 specialty stores The bull case? -The company has good profit margins for a retail. -The company has good debt to capital because they sold a lot of real-estate a few years ago. - Could get a dead cat bounce (lol) - I've noticed that Yacktman Hedge fund started acquiring over 20% of macy shares.( this is one of those long term investment companies, kinda like Berkshire and warren buffet style, they look for value) -Lastly they got a good online store and ladies love to shop! shopaholics gonna be shopaholics. (I mean that's why i invest in the market, so i can make extra money for my lady to buy stuff lol) The bear case? -retail sector has been going down hill -Corona shutdown gonna affect their revenue this year by 25% easily so we'll be looking at breakeven for them this year. we can bear case all day for sure but that's some of the main ones, so know your risk! So what's my play? picking some up around the $5 range, gonna add a trailing stop-loss at $1 below ( trailing stop means at $4 stoploss, if you don't know, just msg me)
NYSE:MLong
by WallSt007
2
LULULEMON ($LULU) 👖 | Is Becky's portfolio about to take a dip?📊🧐 Analysts have low expectations for Lululemon earnings this quarter, but the chart and other factors (like its expansion into international markets) point to high hopes moving forward. In the chart, we take a look at some levels for LULU and compare its strength to the S&P (White) to show how recent weakness and divergence from the broader market's uptrend could result in us eventually retesting support before making another attempt at highs. Support. The S1 orderblock is the target for LULU bulls if we see a correction for LULU instead of an immediate uptrend. Despite potential outlooks for future quarters, the COVID quarter earnings are unlikely to instill greed, so a correction may just be in order from that perspective alone. Below that we have the S2 and S3 bullish S/R flips, both of which could act support if S1 doesn't hold. Resistance. R1 is the main resistance on the chart. The R1 range highs aside, the current range may also end up acting as resistance if we do move down to S1 or lower. Summary. The bull case for LULU still makes sense. However, it'll take a really great outlook and perhaps an earnings beat to have the market disregard what is likely to be an underwhelming earnings report and push LULU to new highs. Given the short term weakness on the chart and expected weakness in earnings, the bulls will probably want to focus effort on defending support rather than trying to FOMO into earnings. Resources: www.earningswhispers.com + www.barrons.com + www.modernretail.co ✨Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉
NASDAQ:LULU
by AlphaBotSystem
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, PVH EARNINGS; GDXJ, XOP; VIXEARNINGS: CHWY (71/85/17.34%)* announces Tuesday after the close. The June 19th 41.5/60 17-delta short strangle pictured here pays 2.55 with break evens wide of the expected move. The similarly delta'd July 17th 39/65 gives you more room to be wrong, but doesn't pay that much more for the wait -- 2.48 at the mid. LULU (36/57/10.01) and PVH (57/85/14.8) announce Thursday after market close, but have less than ideal volatility contraction play metrics. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: EWW (37/38), <10% GDXJ (36/53), 13.74% GDX (33/43), 11.12% TQQQ (30/77), 17.7% XLE (30/39), <10% EWZ (29/48), 11.75% XOP (17/49), 12.4% GDXJ looks to be the most productive from the premium selling standpoint, although we're getting on the short side of duration for July (40 days until expiration). BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: IWM (39/35), 8.66% EFA (28/25), 5.50% QQQ (22/25), 5.93% SPY (21/24), 5.43% IRA DIVIDEND EARNING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%: EWZ (29/48) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: The /VX July contract finished the week at 27.21, with the VIX July 22nd 27/29 short call vertical paying .75 at the mid and the 27/30, nearly a buck at .95. Going out farther in time to take advantage of contangoized term structure here doesn't net you much additional juice, unfortunately. /VX August finished the week at 27.25 -- only .04 above August. September traded at 27.70, but the 27/29 pays only .65, probably due to the fact that the VIX of the VIX (i.e., VIX implied), slopes away, with nearer term implied being higher than those of longer duration. In "derivative land," the VXX July 29/30 is paying .38, the 29/31, .71, and the 29/32, .99. UVXY is probably also paying 1/3rd the width for similar setups, although options pricing is showing wide in the off hours ... . * -- The first metric is implied rank; the second, 30-day implied, and the third, the percentage of share price that the nearest monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying (i.e., the LULU June short straddle is paying 10.01% of share price, the PVH June short straddle, 14.8%).
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
LULUAnother one I'm watching today. LULU is just hanging out chopping up and down trying to figure out where to go. For this one, falling out from a previous wedge, my bias is to the upside ... eventually. Either 1) if we go to demand, I'd like to look for an entry long because generally after price breaks down from a wedge pattern, price action tends to retrace and backtest the wedge, with the wedge acting as resistance. Or 2) if we go straight back up to back test, just so happens that the back test area is in alignment with a supply zone. So, eventually I see LULU making its way back up to back test. If we go to demand zone below, I'll enter a small long with price target up to the supply zone. If we go up first to supply zone and back test, I'll watch as there is potential to re-enter the channel and go trough supply. My bias is to short once price enters supply.
NASDAQ:LULU
by PT_Marche
LULUWill watch LULU tomorrow and see what kind of action happens. Think if it holds this demand it currently is in, which aligns with .32 fib retrace, possibly a good opportunity to grab some calls for the upside for wave “c.” If current demand fails, will wait for it to drift down to next level demand. If gaps up in the overnight, like this market seemingly likes to do both up and down, will see what price does if it shoots to the upside price target / supply zone around the $215 area.
NASDAQ:LULU
by PT_Marche
3