LULU Lululemon Athletica Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the LULU Lululemon Athletica options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $310 strike price Puts with
2023-4-21 expiration date for about
$14.65 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Lululemon
Bye Bye Lulu (Just in the near term not forever)A break back below $295 spells trouble for my favorite pair of leggings.
Good risk/reward set up as we are consolidating below structure in a bearish way.
H&S topping pattern in the making after a long term (TCT) Thrust, Consolidation, Thrust has played out on the monthly.
Lulu has over-produced based upon last earnings call with inventory rising 85% and if we are nearing a recession then more downside is to come for this beloved brand.
In addition, Viori has emerged as possible competition for LULU by taking some market share, especially amongst middle to upper aged men. (I know this isn't the target market for Lulu but more and more women I know are giving it a try.)
On the weekly:
I've got an alert set up for a break below the solid turquoise line
LULU re-test and dip below $300 likely on the way very soon...USING HEIKIN-ASHI CANDLES on the DAILY CHART
- Heavy selloff after earnings on December 8, 2022 - changing short-term technical sentiment from bullish to bearish, and long-term technical sentiment from bullish to neutral.
- Broke below key trendline on December 14, 2022 with bearish signal courtesy of Lux Algo.
- Dipped and closed below Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Average Line - a.k.a. the yellow line in the chart screenshot - with force on December 19, 2022 - changing short-term technical sentiment from bearish to very bearish, and long-term technical sentiment from neutral to bearish.
- Relative Strength Index close to convergence at 40% , which could act as additional resistance.
- Double Top rejection below the Trend Regularity Adaptive Moving Average Line , which provided a strong confirmation for short trade entry and stop loss (above TRAMA line at $321) .
Exit target for profit-taking:
- $300 (whole number general buyer reaction anticipated)
- $277.5 (current swing low)
LULU: Fade the rally!Lulumelon Athletica
Short Term - We look to Sell at 329.26 (stop at 346.16)
They reported better than expected earnings and the stock jumped up premarket. The medium term bias remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Bespoke resistance is located at 332.00. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 284.68 and 272.00
Resistance: 332.00 / 410.00 / 478.00
Support: 283.00 / 246.00 / 129.00
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9/1 - Lulu Pre-Earnings Analysis Higher probability of downside move with Lulu earnings scheduled evening of 09/01:
1. Multi-month head and shoulders was cleanly pierced and then retested with downward pressure from its base.
2. Multi-week down trend off of 200 SMA.
3. Multi-day weakness leading to today, with overall rounding of price to the downside.
4. Multi-year support would occur around 245.
5. General market weakness and downward revisions from retailers.
Conclusion: Earnings volatility on 09/02 could see test of $245.
POSSIBLE HUGE CRASH!Lulu is highly successful retailer.
It is a well know brand world-wide.
But it is obvious that stock price valuations is just too high.
A correction is imminent.
On the monthly chart, there is a text-book head and shoulder pattern.
Price action broke the neck to the downside.
If price close this month below neck area which is around 302 USD, things will accelerate in favor of bears.
There is an uptrend that started a decade ago and probably in couple of weeks price is going to test the trend line.
If price cant hold that line, 192 USD is possible in the short term.
Lulu can test 78 USD area depending on FEDs actions.
Important support areas for the long term
302
245
224
192
166
139
120
78
Follow for more ideas and charts!
$LULU Double TopLululemon ($LULU) has a double top, gap fill, and support as indicated. RSI is pointing down, MACD is starting to switch over.
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Stock may headed back toward All-Time Highs.Between March 24 and March 30, Lululemon soared 27%, which created the pole of the bull flag pattern. Since then, the stock’s daily trading range has tightened into a triangle, which has formed the flag of the pattern.
If Lululemon breaks up bullish from the upper descending trendline of the flag on higher-than-average volume, the measured move could see the stock trade up toward the $462 level, which is in range of the Nov. 16, 2021 all-time high of $485.83.
The stock is set to hit the apex of the triangle on April 12 and traders and investors can watch for a break from the triangle pattern over the next three trading days to gauge future direction.
If Lululemon breaks up from the flag formation, the stock will regain support at the 200-day simple moving average, which will indicate long-term sentiment has turned bullish.
On Thursday, Lululemon was trading on lower than average volume, which indicates consolidation is taking place, which aligns with the theory that the bull flag pattern is in play. By late afternoon, only about 872,000 shares had exchanged hands compared to the 10-day average of 2.43 million.
The consolidation within the bull flag pattern has helped to drop Lululemon’s relative strength index to about 65% from the 73% level the stock’s RSI was measuring on March 30. The drop in RSI allows for Lululemon to trade higher if the stock breaks up from the bull flag.
Lululemon has resistance above at $383 and $412 and support below at $367 and $347.
Bullish traders will want to watch for a break up from the upper descending trendline of the flag formation, on high volume, for an entry. When a stock breaks up from a bull flag pattern, the measured move higher is equal to the length of the pole and should be added to the lowest price within the flag.
A bull flag is negated when a stock closes a trading day below the lower trendline of the flag pattern or if the flag falls more than 50% down the length of the pole.
Are Markets Overvaluing These 3 Stocks? LULU, NFLX, SQTwo recent stock events have called into question how markets are pricing stocks. The first event is the OG meme stock, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), hitting a one trillion-dollar market cap. And the second event is EV newcomer Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN), surpassing the valuation of Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) after listing on the NASDAQ.
One way to gauge how overvalued a stock may be is to find its multiple (aka, Price-To-Earnings ratio). In the case of Tesla, it’s multiple, as of writing, is ~350. In the case of Rivian, it doesn’t have any sales to speak of, so a multiple for this Company is not discernible (as reported by Bloomberg; “Rivian is now the biggest US company with no sales”). Investors can be concerned about high multiples if the Company in question is unlikely to grow its profitability to a level that better reflects the stock’s current price. Tesla and Rivian are just two companies that analysts (incl. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk) commonly point out as overvalued.
Keep reading to learn what other 3 stocks market analysts commonly categorise as overvalued.
Are Markets Overvaluing These 3 Stocks? LULU, NFLX, SQ
Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ: LULU)
Several outlets, including Forbes, noted the athleisure wear company to be overvalued in the first half of 2021. Yet, difficult to discourage, investors have continued to support the Company and further bumped up the stock’s price. LULU is currently trading at an 15% premium above its first-half peak price (US $404 vs US $465). Its current valuation places its multiple at ~74x earnings.
The momentum behind the stock is driven by its consistent earnings report beats and ambitious sales targets set by management, which are being hit or surpassed with surprising frequency. The Company’s outlook is buoyed by a growing (and incredibly loyal) customer base and higher margins. In this way, Lululemon stock may well be within a fair valuation if it continues to ride the growth momentum in which it is currently swept up.
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX)
Numerous Analysts were calling Netflix overvalued in 2020, even as the streaming giant reported subscriber growth beats during quarantine lockdowns and beyond. Bearish comments would call attention to the cash-burn needed by Netflix for the foreseeable future to maintain its industry leadership and satisfy its growing user base.
Bullish sentiment could counter this argument by pointing to the Company improving operating margins (e.g., Netflix has improved its operating margin from 16% to 23.5% YTD). However, Netflix does not include content generation spending as an operating cost. Instead, it is considered a fixed cost for the business. Yet, suppose Netflix is going to be burning cash producing content for the foreseeable future. In that case, the improving operating margin might be considered no more an accounting trick than a meaningful metric.
As of writing, Netflix shares are trading at US ~$690, indicating a multiple of approximately ~62 earnings.
Square (NYSE: SQ)
The digital payment provider Square appears to be firmly in the camp of overvalued tech stock. At least, according to Morningstar analysts, SQ is trading at more than double its “fair value estimate” (US ~$230 vs. $112) with a Price-To-Earnings value of ~240. SQ shares have not traded at US $112.00 or below since July 13, 2020.
While SQ does deliver on growth, it still has a very long way to go to justify its ~240x multiple. Square’s dubious long-term outlook is compounded by the increasingly tense competition from PayPal (NASDAQ: PYPL) and Fiserv’s (NASDAQ: FISV) Clover application. While younger than Square’s payment solution, the latter is already processing more payments across the US, and importantly, growing at a faster pace.
LULU breakout level!LULU is squeezing on multiple time frames and is getting ready to fire. We are also in a wolf wave pattern with a price target of 350.70 (green dotted line). Today, it formed a doji after a full body candle on the previous day which signals a bullish uptrend ahead of its earnings. We might see LULU get into the earnings run soon!
Looking for this wolf wave to pan out in the next couple weeks. If you're planning on getting into this option trade, I'd go 2-3 weeks out. I'll update this as we go.
Suggested contracts:
LULU 4/30 350C @ 1.25
LULU 4/30 340C @ 2.40