Randon Lumber Length Futures on the negative side for few days.On a daily chart, once again tracking the move of the Lumber Futures. While on the negative side for some time already in matter of days, it has turn the move from its high peak into a lower or downtrend. Its position on the down side for few days may suggest a continuous move.
Lumber
200-day SMA Fails to Support Ailing Lumber Prices Lumber prices are looking lower after slicing through the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Former areas of resistance turned support may offer relief but bears appear to be in full control. A drop to the 600 level may be on the cards.
Lumber (Hitting Some Support Soon?)Updated View on Lumber (15 June 2021)
Lumber was cracy run (all time high) due to shortage of supply in recent months and it has since somehow relived.
The same move also trapped a lot of late chaser and now most of them must have wiped out.
I am expecting $900~$970 region will act as a good support region. So, now it is kinda late to sell, too early to buy in as we need a strong PA to show up.
DYODD, all the best and read the disclaimer too.
Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment".
Thank You!
Legal Risk Disclosure:
Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor.
DISCLAIMER:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice.
Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
LUMBER Sell SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the price got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Channel Up.
Target: The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) on the short-term and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
!! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> CryptoSurfer007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thinking of Buying a House? 🪓As many of you know the price of real estate has been rising at an unprecedented rate. Along with this is also the rising lumber rates.
- If you are thinking about buying a house; right now would NOT be an ideal time.
- You are paying an inflated price for a home while also paying for the additional lumber costs, which are up 146% since march! Now many people are selling their homes for a great profit!
- Just like the stock market - Buy Low / Sell High.
Commodities - Lumber ShortIdea for Lumber:
- Lumber has a good short setup.
- By Elliot Wave Theory, correction needs another wave down.
- Possible continuation on downtrend, if Wyckoff Distribution is confirmed.
TP1: 1100
PT: 400
GLHF
- DPT
Lumber to $2500?Based off a possible fib channel and fib levels, we could see another wave up into $2500.
Lumber- Money grows on Trees
Lumber continues to surge, hitting a new recored 6m ROC. It is also right around the 1.618 extension of the all-time low to the '93 high (the only other period with a price spike of similar magnitude).
Lumber - Unprecedented Historical Move$LUMBER - Pushing back towards all time highs, however the 12Month ROC is still extremely elevated, in the 99th percentile of all time, likely a bit extended and the supply/demand dynamics should start stabilizing as (knock on wood) these second wave of lockdowns ease up
Dollar Down?Seems like the rise in the price of all commodities, is related to the recent fall in the dollar.
LL Ascending Triangle BreakoutLL broke out of the ascending triangle it has been forming. It has slightly broken out before the technically required 2/3rd's completion of the triangle, so a test of support above the trend still is needed.
The next true supply range starts at $30.60 with resistance to testing those levels at the demand range of $28.40.
Gold Builds Up As Hyperinflation Risk RiseInflation is the term that indicates rising prices for goods and services in an economy, while rapid and out of control rising of prices indicates Hyperinflation .
While following the rapid increase in prices of commodities and metals such as Lumber LBS1! and Iron Ore TIO1! , it is accurate to say that global economy is being driven to Hyperinflation due to mismanagement of economical struggle caused by Covid-19 Pandemic.
Gold offered and offers strong potential for gains in economic struggles and even after economic recovery occurs, given how undervalued at this time relative to high prices of commodities.
Taking all these fundamentals into consideration combining with technical analysis, Gold price does not reflect its value.
You may see my long position strategy below and on the chart,
Entry Point: 1870.00
1st Target : 1950.00
2nd Target: 2075.00
3rd Target: 2180.00
Stop Loss : 1800.00
Thank you and stay tuned for more strategies!
Please leave a like and comment what you think.
Trade safe and have a nice Monday
Lumber:Gold Ratio is an unusable indicator?I appreciate Michael A. Gayed's thesis here, but the more I look deeper (and longer term) at the data, it's really difficult to draw an real signal.
Too many instances where it's not clear which influences which and more likely the market itself (SPX) is influencing lumber and gold independently after the fact of the market move.
When you look closely you can see that the peak of the Lumber:Gold ratio is when both are very low but Gold is lower than Lumber. The conditions of the two are all over the place and it's not something that seems to have truly repeatable conditions.
Conclusion:
I'm open to being wrong here, but I just don't see it as something people should take too seriously especially when gold might be taking off at the same time lumber is. Simply looking for a peak in lumber is probably more valuable here.
Lumber up Almost 1,000% Since Great RecessionLumber just hit $1,700 after this morning's 3.7 sigma payrolls miss. More money printing equals more inflation; a child understands this concept. But, central banks say they're still trying to get inflation to 2%. I mean, I have no words, folks...
"Make sure that our economy doesn't overheat" JYThanks Janet! Here are lumber futures not overheating.
Lumber: Inflation?Just a chart that clearly is hot... What's your thought on inflation and the state of the global economy? CHEERS
Parabolic Lumber PricesIncreased demand from perpetual fiat debasement and free money, constricted supply from cargo ships blocking supply routes, Covid lockdowns. This is a recipe for disaster. Inflation is coming folks!
LBS1! breakout of trend going back to GFC + huge cup and handleWho knows where this could go to but it appears $1000/1000 is here to stay.
LL - Bull flag on weeklyChicago lumber futures were trading around $950 per thousand board in March, buoyed by robust real estate markets and expectations of a swifter economic rebound fueled by massive government spending and vaccine rollouts. Covid is also causing lumber shortage and shipping problems. LL has a nice bull flag on the weekly, look for break above $26.5.
MACRO - Lumber LBS - EW ForecastModel Forecast
PT: 475 EOY
This ties into my other macroeconomic forecasts... Just a piece of the puzzle.
Lumber is the starting thread of 2 of next campaigns.
A sneak peak:
- Housing market will crash.
- Canada is in big, big trouble.
GLHF
- DPT
Still plenty of upside in Canadian lumber stocks.I recommended West Fraser Timer (WFT on TSX) some time ago. In November the company announced it would buy another lumber company, Norbord.
Nov 19, 2020 | Posted in Corporate News, News
West Fraser to Acquire Norbord, Creating a Diversified Global Wood Products Leader
– Complementary OSB business expands product and geographic diversity
– Greater scale and customer relevance unlocks and de-risks growth opportunities
– West Fraser and Norbord shareholders to benefit from a stronger value creation platform
The shortage of lumber due to a strong housing market continues, and the potential for a friendlier administration in the White House (elimination of duties?) is a distinct possibility.
Forget GLD/OIL ratio, LUMBER/GLD as your new crash indicator!Just listened to a great interview on the Market Huddle podcast feat. Michael A. Gayed from the Lead / Lag report. Great interview!
So one of his leading indicators discussed was the LBS/GLD ratio and it actually correlates quite well. Although it predicted the 2018 Christmas crash much more distinctly (with a slight trend break down to the trend line false positive in early 2018), but with each major trend breakdown or breakout it 100% confirmed SPY continuation. As for the most recent indication for the March crash, there was a quick gap down in LBS/GLD ratio during the consolidation triangle (indicated exhaustion), even though it didn't formally break until a 10% drop in the SPY.
Scary thing is what's happening now. Bounce to near recent highs, then either a breakout or consolidation into a cup and handle. That likely means we're going to correct again down for some consolidation (as a 3 touch breakout in this formation is typically a little too aggressive). Target is in the 13's, which would put the SPY somewhere between the stratosphere and moon.
Let the melt up continue!
