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Potentially undervalued counter-cyclic asset classHello, Thanks for viewing. Really nice to see the encouragement and feedback from my last post about the gold/silver ratio. This is to share another of my recently entered, but shortly to grow significantly in size, positions. Boring old Commodities. If you look at a long-term chart, commodities have been on a largely downward slide for over 29 years. I just looked up a 100 year Commodities chart and had a chuckle reading how a blogger was calling the bottom on commodities in 2017 when the index was around 40% higher than now (blog.gorozen.com). So, I realise that it is unlikely that I started looking into commodities right at the bottom of the market. Still, there are good reasons to be a buyer. 1. From TA, it looks like we are nearing a bottom. I would tentatively put it between $5.40 and $3, however, things can change quickly and I decided to start creating a position, 2. I like Ray Dalio, I like him so much I have invested into GSG despite overall very negative outlook on ETFs (please please don't invest in GLD). So Ray Dalio was talking on a YT video with Tony Robbins (yeah the guy with the huge teeth) about his all-weather portfolio. Since, in early 2019, I was trying to find a way to "recession-proof" myself in expectation of a recession (The US was nearing its longest and weakest expansion in history with rather high debts - I never would have guessed that in a recession that already overvalued stocks with no chance of producing a dividend return would become the stock-market darlings). Check out the basics of his portfolio here: www.lazyportfolioetf.com Now, I haven't done all of it and I probably won't. I started with stocks (up to 30%), Precious metals (supposed to be 7.5% but I have replaced a significant portion of the bonds in the portfolio with precious metals - because of the negative real return of treasuries. I have posts about the S&P500, Shiller 10 year PE ratio, and my treasuries entry - which would have been in Oct 2018 - if I did pull the trigger. At the time, I thought the bonds return was too low to warrant an investment... turns out 3% wasn't that low after all. Long story short, I am probably 30% precious metals, 10% bonds, 30% stocks, <1% GSG but adding more up to a goal of 7.5%, the rest is cash looking for a home in income-producing real assets at some future date (and some crypto). I am buying, even though I think we aren't yet at the bottom, just because of how difficult it is to pick the low point in the market. Commodities have bottomed out in 1929 (that seems a significant date), the mid to late 1960s, and a 10 year down-trend pulled back around 1998-9. I am especially interested in the 1929 bottom, that happened around the time equities reached all-time high valuations in terms of PE and Market Cap/GDP (of course these have been exceeded in the current market). I feel we are approaching a 1929 type of moment. There are some interesting things happening of late; massive demand increases and shortages for both physical bullion and lumber (lumber isn't on the ETF) as people move away from intangible assets and populated main centres etc. There is a very real possibility that people will look to other tangible things, things with inherent value, should paper assets and a vast array of financial derivatives blow up (again). Add in the Fed's goal to stoke inflation (and then stop it again when it reaches its target) and we have at least a possibility, an outside chance, that Commodities will be valued higher. I'm sure I had more to say, but I am watching the Dow drop like a stone. Protect those funds
AMEX:GSGLong
by flyinkiwi10
BCC: Wood is in big demand. Price way up.Long.RV makers are in short supply of the lumber they need. Prices have gone way up. Prices may stall for awhile but remain higher than last year. We have a nice "W" base. Potential target given. All projections are always a guess. SO process your way. Have a good week. From Zacks;Boise Cascade Company operates as a wood products manufacturer and building materials distributor. The Company manufactures engineered wood products, plywood, lumber and particleboard and distributes wood products, such as decking, EWP, lumber, panel, particleboard, and MDF products. It has operations primarily in the United States and Canada. Boise Cascade Company is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.
NYSE:BCCLong
by goodguy
ALL COMMODITIES RALLY|INFLATION OR RECOVERY? As it is obvious from the charts and the title above , the prices of the unrelated commodities, that were presented in the selection above went up significantly from the lows of 2020. It is possible that, with the exception of lumber, that is beating the all time highs for some reason, most of the current price increases are just the recovery to the pre-covid levels. One might argue that this simply reflects the fact that they were all oversold and that this behavior is just front-running the recovery.Keeping that in mind, let's explore if this could be a beginning of the inflation spiral. The exploration: There is essentially three types of the economic shocks: 1-Demand shock.Deflationary pressure. It happens when the economy is quite capable of producing the same amount of goods as before the shock, but the money supply has shrunk, and the consumers have less money to purchase the said goods. Less money is chasing same number of goods, and while the supply inevitably responds to the changed conditions and starts shrinking too, this takes time, and meanwhile you have deflation. This was the kind of shock/crisis we had the last two times. That is why the FED's QE did not create inflation, or rather is was locked up in the financial instruments, as it was filling up the hole in the money supply, created by the bust of the markets, a chain of defaults and deleveraging of the system. 2-Supply shock. Inflationary pressure. It happens when the consumers still have the money to buy the goods, the money supply is still there, but the production is not, so the classic inflationary scenario kicks in, where more money chases less goods. Prices rise. 3- Simultaneous demand and supply shock. That is a mixture of the two of the above. In that case, the two somewhat cancel each other out, as the money supply drops together with the production of goods. However, in reality, one happens faster than the other, which determines the kind of pressure it will have on prices. Now, it was and is a massive challenge for us to figure out if the covid-19 lockdowns were a demand or a supply shock, or rather, which shock would be stronger, as It is obvious for everyone, that businesses closing up limited both the supply and demand for goods, so this is clearly the simultaneous supply and demand shock. And while the balance was not perfect, the two shocks were supposed to cancel each other out, yet the FED and the Federal Government stepped in and the first one provided the "unlimited liquidity", propping up junk bonds, stocks and other heavily levered assets, while the latter rolled out an unprecedented cash handouts to tens of millions of people to fill in the gaps of lost incomes. These two actions clearly tipped the scales to the inflationary pressure side(supply shock) as millions of people were buying goods with the money they did not work for(i.e. did not contribute anything to the supply side). Now, coming back to the commodities prices. As I said, one might argue that this is front-running the recovery, however, that can be countered by the fact that the recovery from any significant crisis takes at least 1,5 years and it took 3-4 years the last time to get back to where we were before, so getting prices of anything to the 2020 beginning levels, where the economy was growing fast and grew for 12 consecutive years before that is wildly optimistic at best. The economy has not recovered, and the recovery will take 1-1,5 years minimum. Thus, I am making the case for that these upshots in prices are the early warning signs of the real inflation and that the further increase in money supply will accelerate this process. Besides, it is clear from the charts that many commodities stand or are reaching strong levels, while having massive bullish momentums, so should the levels be broken upwards, there is literally no ceiling for how high the prices might go. And mind you- it is not a price increase of one or two commodities. The selection above is a representation of the cross-sector simultaneous price increases for the raw materials. I hand picked those with 50% or more increases, but the surges up are visible everywhere across the commodities, so even a 5-7% broad annualized inflation is something unseen by the western world in decades. So yes, this IS inflation. My congratulations to the FED: after 13 years of struggles, they finally got what they wanted- the real inflation, yet I am not sure that the people are as happy for that as the FED bosses are. Guys, thank you for reading, I appreciate your take on the issue, so feel free to comment below. Also, don't forget to like and subscribe! Have a nice day!
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Long
by ProSignalsFx
1
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
L
by Dinjin
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
L
by Dinjin
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
L
by Dinjin
Lumber Liquidators breaking out. MMHVW - looks like a buy - do your own research as usual Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a multi-channel specialty retailer of hard-surface flooring, and hard-surface flooring enhancements and accessories. The company offers hardwood species, engineered hardwood, laminates, resilient vinyl flooring, waterproof vinyl plank, and porcelain tile; renewable flooring, and bamboo and cork products; and a selection of flooring enhancements and accessories, including moldings, noise-reducing underlay, adhesives, and flooring tools under the Bellawood brand. It also provides in-home delivery and installation services. The company primarily serves homeowners, or to contractors on behalf of homeowners. As of December 31, 2018, it operated approximately 413 stores, including 405 located in the United States and 8 stores in Ontario, Canada. The company also offers its products through its Website, catalogs, and call center. Lumber Liquidators Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Toano, Virginia.
LLong
by Skinwah
1