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Lumberanalysis

Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?Traders: Track a September contract breakout above 494.5. A decisive close above that level sets a rough target of 600 (shelf of former highs from last year). I’ll pass since I don’t trade lumber. (I like the bullish divergence forming on the 14-day RSI, though.) Whether you trade the futures contract or not, a rally for lumber is a rally for homebuilders and the broader stock market. Stay tuned for further bull market confirmation from the commodity space.
PEPPERSTONE:LUMBERLong
by USDSZL
New Floors with Lumber Liquidators LL commodities retail rally“Inequality can be done away with only by establishing a new society, where men and women will enjoy equal rights, resulting from an upheaval in the means of production and in all social relations. Thus, the status of women will improve only with the elimination of the system that exploits them.” Lumber Liquidators looks good for a reversal. Small share float, strong sales, strong P/B P/E P/C and near zero debt vs equity. Risks: Value Trap, Discretionary spending retraction, macro momentum stays negative
LLong
by noam_chom
5
Are Commodity Prices Going Up? Lumber, Cash Crops, And Iron OreSome interesting factors are currently affecting commodity prices. Supply chain bottlenecks, unpredictable demand from economies reopening, geo-political tensions, climate change policies are just a few examples. I find it helpful to review the state of the commodities market periodically. In this article, we will examine Lumber, Cash Crops, and Iron Ore. Commodity prices: Lumber Lumber Mills have done their best to increase timber supply in 2021, with production hitting a 13-year high to meet the unpredicted demand from new house builds and renovations. After reaching a peak of over US $1,600 per thousand board feet in May this year, Chicago Lumber Futures have retraced to US ~$640 per thousand board feet as of early November. It could be said that the psychological level of US $600 is very supportive of this commodity. November 2021, and January and March 2022 Future prices are also trading above this level. Speculation is rife that Lumber is due for another price run-up, with Sawmills cutting production to counter the gluttonous output earlier in the year. One indicator supporting this theory is Chicago Lumber Futures increasing by just-under ~40% since plateauing in August, at one point hitting US $820 in mid-October. Commodity prices: Cash Crops Corn and many other grain Futures are currently trading at premiums or multi-year highs, including Wheat and Oats. As of writing, Corn, Wheat, and Oats are trading at 555 USd/Bu, 781 USd/Bu, 716 USd/Bu, respectively. Several factors have led to inflation in grain prices. For one, we can thank (or curse) the high cost of crude oil. Due to WTI and Brent trading US ~$80 per barrel, demand for ethanol has been pushed to the extreme. It is important to note, that in the US, Ethanol is produced predominantly by fermenting Corn (25% of the Corn grown in the US is used for ethanol production). Kluis Commodity Advisors does not believe the prices of grains is sustainable, even in the short term. The Advisors go so far as to suggest that farmers should be hitting the sell button right now to make the most of the grain rally. Butting up against this prediction are forecasts for a continuation of unfavourably dry weather, which have already put the supply of Cash Crops, including Wheat and Oats, in a precarious position. Commodity prices: Iron Ore From mid-September until the end of October, Iron Ore appeared to have found a safe space above US $100. Now, after a steep decline beginning October 27, 2021, Iron Ore has started to test May 2020 lows, close to US $90 per metric tonne. The commodity is grating against predictions by ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) for it to “find a floor around current levels”. Demand (or lack thereof) from China is what has driven the price of Iron Ore sub-100 dollars. Chinese authorities have ordered its steel manufacturers (large consumers of Iron Ore) to cut production to meet targets to reduce energy consumption and pollution across its provinces. China’s production restrictions are scheduled to last until mid-March 2022. According to S&P Global, Iron Ore outlook is unfavourable, with “pricing risk is to the downside” as supply tends to increase in the latter half of the year.
L
by BlackBull_Markets
Still plenty of upside in Canadian lumber stocks.I recommended West Fraser Timer (WFT on TSX) some time ago. In November the company announced it would buy another lumber company, Norbord. Nov 19, 2020 | Posted in Corporate News, News West Fraser to Acquire Norbord, Creating a Diversified Global Wood Products Leader – Complementary OSB business expands product and geographic diversity – Greater scale and customer relevance unlocks and de-risks growth opportunities – West Fraser and Norbord shareholders to benefit from a stronger value creation platform The shortage of lumber due to a strong housing market continues, and the potential for a friendlier administration in the White House (elimination of duties?) is a distinct possibility.
W
by malvinspooner
position vendeuse bois de construction! LUMBERBonjour ! J'ai décidé cette fin de semaine de vous présenter cette analyse très intéressante avec un fort potentiel et une probabilité de gain. Analyse long terme sur le bois de construction. * Depuis avril 2020 le prix du bois a grimpé de plus de 50% après son plus bas de mars 2020 à 255$ US. Cette hausse se traduit malgré le covid-19 aux prévision macro concernant les mises en chantier aux usa comme au canada . Il faut noter que le marché de la construction américain et le niveau de sa demande suit l'évolution des restriction de construction par rapport à l'évolution sanitaire qui sévit aux usa actuellement. Un deuxième élément qui m'a intéressé sur cette matière première est la baisse de la demande qui est entrain d’emmener structurellement les gros producteurs canadiens et américains à ajuster leurs productions et même à suspendre certaines de leurs activités. Techniquement: depuis 01 Janvier 1985 le cours du bois a oscillé entre les bornes supérieurs et inférieures du canal haussier représenté par les trendlines vertes . Il faut noter que la trendline rouge représente la droite marquant l'histoire du bois de construction depuis 1973 . En 2003 après avoir buté sur la trendline rouge ; les prix sont passés de 213.5$ à 315.2$ soit un bond de prés de 36.15% pour ensuite aller chercher la borne supérieure su canal à 456$ approximativement au même niveau que les sommets de 1999,1996. De septembre 2015 à Mai 2018 le bois à progressé de près de 188% (209$ plus bas 2001,2003,2009) à (604.4$ plus haut jamais enregistré) cassant même de force la borne supérieure du canal pour après le réintégrer. A l'heure où je vous partage cette analyse , nous sommes dans une zone fort intéressante dont l'issue pourrait se concrétiser techniquement par une répétition de l'histoire , donc cassure de la trendline suivi d'in pull back et réintégration du canal sinon; on va assister à de nouveaux records(2018 630$). La première hypothèse est celle que je porte . Selon ichimoku les prix se sont trop éloignés de la kijun et de al tenkan , un scénario de retour vers la tenkan est donc à considérer . Pour le moment la lagging n'a pas encore confirmée son signal de vente car pour le moment aucun obstacle devant elle. j'attends la validation de la lagging après la clôture hebdomadaire de la semaine prochaine. Si cassure après clôture la semaine prochaine la probabilité d'aller tester le sommet de 2018 est forte . Bon weekend !
LShort
by abro.michael
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) DailyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
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by Dinjin
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
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by Dinjin
LUMBER FUTURES (LBS1!) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts.
L
by Dinjin