Tether - The ominous precedent and another scapegoat?The recent market volatility and unprecedented movements in the cryptocurrency market brought along the critical question of stablecoin safety. Just within a matter of a few days, the whole cryptocurrency market was shaken up by the downfall of a stablecoin named Luna, which lost 99% of its value; this sets the ominous precedent for what might occur in the Tether (owned by Bitfinex).
Already back in July 2021, Jannet Yellen, the U.S. treasury secretary, summoned Jerome Powell and the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission to discuss Tether and the danger it poses. Then in October 2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed and settled legal cases against iFinex Inc., BFXNA Inc., and BFXWW Inc.
The actual text (only excerpts) from the CFTC website
1st excerpt
“The Tether order finds that since its launch in 2014, Tether has represented that the tether token is a stablecoin with its value pegged to fiat currency and 100% backed by corresponding fiat assets, including U.S. dollars and euros. However, the Tether order finds that from at least June 1, 2016 to February 25, 2019, Tether misrepresented to customers and the market that Tether maintained sufficient U.S. dollar reserves to back every USDT in circulation with the “equivalent amount of corresponding fiat currency” held by Tether and “safely deposited” in Tether’s bank accounts. “
2nd excerpt
In fact Tether reserves were not “fully-backed” the majority of the time. The order further finds that Tether failed to disclose that it included unsecured receivables and non-fiat assets in its reserves, and that Tether falsely represented that it would undergo routine, professional audits to demonstrate that it maintained “100% reserves at all times” even though Tether reserves were not audited.
3rd excerpt
“Tether held sufficient fiat reserves in its accounts to back USDT tether tokens in circulation for only 27.6% of the days in a 26-month sample time period from 2016 through 2018. “
Illustration 1.01
The recent disconnect in the peg between the USD and Tether is shown above. It can be observed that the panic lasted only little bit over two hours. However, slope of the decline is reminiscent of one in Luna.
Illustration 1.02
The weekly chart of the crypto total market cap shows a substantial decline since the beginning of the downtrend in November 2021. The orange line shows BTCUSD, a positive correlation between market-cap and BTCUSD. Bitcoin has the highest dominance in the cryptocurrency market; therefore, it has the most significant impact on the crypto total market cap's movement. A strong positive correlation can also be observed between Bitcoin and the tech industry; the light blue line in the lower graph shows Nasdaq 100 CFD.
Illustration 1.03
The picture above shows the massive drop in Luna stablecoin.
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DISCLAIMER: This idea is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities; it is merely an opinion. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
