Luna can tank upto $19After the Luna crash, the whole cryptocurrency community is an awe and shock as the UST being the stablecoin, lost its value, hence, depleting the trust factor of crypto holders from UST and other stable coins.
Technically, we anticipate Luna tanking upto $19, and then take a buy position from the support.
LUNAUSDT
LUNA - Outlook ✅Let's see how LUNA is behaving.
This is a 1D chart. (Long Term)
LUNA also broke two resistance areas and landed on support.
There are two possible scenarios: either the price will pull back and hit resistance or pass the support area and go lower.
Two resistance areas are pushing down on price, and this support level will only hold while Bitcoin is going sideways.
Once BTC drops, LUNA will drop as well.
The RSI shows that LUNA is below the 50 levels, the center.
If you want to know how the RSI indicator works, take a look at this Educational Idea. It'll help you have better readings:
Current Market Price: $30.60
Let me know your ideas.
Good luck.
LUNAUSD - Bulls Must Maintain TrendlineA chart showing an upward channel on the LUNAUSD pair
A trend line can also be drawn under this channel, this trend line must be maintained
I still have faith in a bull market
LUNA - Understanding the Lunatic Drop 👇🧵Trying to find the explanation of what went SO wrong with Luna i found the best possible explanation here :
$UST fell to a low of $0.66 while $LUNA crashed to a low of $24.85 overnight.
Lessons learned from $LUNA $UST disastrous collapse 👇🧵
But let's assess what actually happened.
- $UST deposits on Anchor fell 43% in a day (currently $6.7bn)
- $UST getting massively shorted + sell-off on Curve
- LFG emptied out all its reserves to save the peg
- Rumours that Citadel engineered the attack
/ Lesson 1: Death Spiral
Illustrated perfectly by
@ZeMariaMacedo
, the design of $LUNA $UST is a giant positive feedback loop.
This was the "flywheel effect" that everyone's talking about but very few actually viewed it as a double edged sword.
A design that has a tendency to spiral out of control, even if it is to the upside, is a fundamental flaw. Most positive feedback loops are bad, be it in biology or engineering.
Don't get caught up in the buzzwords like "flywheel effect" esp when things seem rosy.
Lesson 2: Arbitrageurs can stop arb-ing
$UST peg is maintained by:
- Arbitrage
-
@stablekwon
& LFG's deep pockets
If $UST falls below $1 (e.g. $0.95), arbitrageurs buy $UST for $0.95, redeem the $UST and mint $1 worth of $LUNA.
Profit = $0.05, $UST supply falls, $UST --> $1
But if $LUNA is in a prolonged downturn, the risk of holding onto $LUNA after minting is high.
The arb profit might get wiped after minting $LUNA as $LUNA price keeps dropping, hence arbitrageurs might abstain and choose to chill instead --> stabilization mechanism fails
Lesson 3: Over-reliance on Do Kwon & LFG
Crypto is built on the ethos of being independent of trusted third parties.
If $UST relies on the aggressive, interventionist measures of centralized entities like Do Kwon & LFG, how is it scalable?
Imagine maintaining a peg by having the founder pump in capital each time shit goes south? Everything about Terra operates off the back of exogenous capital injection.
Even Anchor's 20% APY relies heavily on the yield reserve top ups instead of revenue earned from lending.
The idea that Terra is too big to fail is very dangerous and it's why many diehard $LUNA maxis got burned today. It's a house of card built entirely on trust, in a supposedly trustless space.
Lesson 4: Cult Heroes
Cult heroes in crypto have the same ending. Daniele Sesta and Frog Nation. Andre Cronje and $FTM community.
Do Kwon is next... He is a great guy don't get me wrong, but never all-in your trust in a cult hero and invest on people
Lesson 5: Stablecoin Designs
Seems like pure-play algo stablecoins can't withstand the heat. Over-collateralized stablecoins are icky cuz they're like loans instead of currency and have a massive capital utilization problem.
A hybrid model might be it...
@fraxfinance
Lesson 6: LFG Reserves Transparency
LFG is transparent about the size of its reserves and you can track their wallets in real time.
Central banks usually avoid disclosing the size of their forex reserves e.g. Singapore or they release lagged data
Conclusion:
A lot of trust has been lost today. It really goes to show the importance of a sound, self-sustaining system beneath the veneer of marketing gimmicks.
Can $UST and $LUNA rise again? Definitely. But A LOT of work is needed to fix the fundamental design flaws.
Will LUNA recover? Hello everyone,
LUNA is currently sitting in a awkward position, nobody was expecting to see LUNA this keep ever again however it happened and it had a tragic impact over the market as well.
I believe LUNA is going to recover and go back to $58 dollars in the next days.
Be patiance and don't let your feeling influence your decisions.
Have a good trading week.
just as predicted what we thought about #usdtdalright guys we reached the exact point in #usdtd and the thing that I know about this chart and I'm warning you about is this, if #usdtd would be detecting the exact point that I've been marked on the chart on about 5.11% then these green candles would be the last chance to cash your portfolio, i repeat if there would be detection on 5.11% ( by the detection I mean "reaction" )
so if you are a scalper you know what to do and I guess you already have your long positions have been filled down there, but if you have anything in loss, try to decide what exactly you wanna do, keeping your portfolio and whatever it in clouds for weeks, months and maybe years?
and please notice that this is just an idea and try to make your decision by yourself, because this is the market and whatever can happen on a chart, will happen.
the main idea about these words is "these green candles will not last long"
#stay #safe
LUNAUSDTHello Crypto Lovers,
Mars Signals team wishes you high profits.
This is a one-day-time frame analysis for LUNAUSDT
You are observing a heavy fall for the price after it lost its support. At the present, it is approaching the first support line and we believe it will have a fluctuation at this area. Then we expect a rise for the price.
Warning: This is just a suggestion and we do not guarantee profits. We advise you analyze the chart before opening any position.
Wish you luck
Head and ShouldersLUNA has been in a bull trend for over a year now, and is starting to show weakness against both USD and BTC here.
The head and shoulders pattern on the LUNAUSDT broke the neckline earlier today, the volume wasn't significant but we believe as it gets weaker it will trigger panic once LUNABTC makes a lower low.
I made the entry based on the risk reward ratio, it is something that every trader must understand because it protects me from losing money even if I had a higher rate of failure.
analysis of Luna and review of support points new versionComplete analysis of Luna currency and review of support points part 2
we got +100% tp in old version
here we have breakdown bear will take profit in 50 and 45 or 42 and we can buy in 45 or 50 or 47.500 42 its very good to spot trade
The points marked with green lines are suitable for adding this currency to the portfolio and we can maintain it in the long or medium term and make a profit.
note:All the projects to buy and add to the portfolio are also in my portfolio too...
LUNAUSDT Hit the bottom of its 6 month Channel Up*** ***
For this particular analysis on TERRA we are using the LUNAUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange.
*** ***
The idea is on the 1D chart with the blue trend-line being the 1D MA50 and the orange trend-line the 1D MA200. As shown, LUNAUSD has been trading within a Channel Up ever since its December 2021 High. Two Higher Lows and another Higher High have followed, forming the bullish trend on this Channel.
Today the price hit the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of this long-term Channel Up on the liner scale. On the log scale, there is still some room for a complete pull-back, which happens to be on this diverging Higher Lows trend-line as illustrated on the chart. The RSI (1D) is exactly on the level (oversold 30.000) where the last Higher Low was priced on January 30 2022. If those Support levels hold, we expect LUNA to gradually start the new rally to a Higher High within the Channel Up.
Attention is needed, as this time besides the 1D MA50, it also has the 1D MA200 as a Resistance on the short-term. Potential confirmation comes if the price breaks above it. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($97.000) can be used as a medium-term target with the 1.236 ($135.000) being the long-term (which priced the previous Higher High).
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LUNA/USDT update : 103 resistance to watchLUNA/USDT update : 103 resistance to watch
Previous analysis 7/04/2022 :
After having broke 91,70 (exhaustion warning) Lune consolidate to 76 before bouncing off. The 50% retracement area has been reached and for now onlt a reintegration of 103 (61,8% Fibo level) would leans towards a direct rise towards the next target (New ATH)
For now a test of 62/63 can't be ignored - the RSI is mixed and the EMA challenged.
Tactical View
To dangerous to short on my opinion, but for the trader who tooked profit around 108 i would wait a confirmation to re-enter, a new drop below 76 will give an opportunity to renter in the long-term trend (Most likely scenario in green)
The important things to understand is : we are drawing a consolidation pattern which will produce a new ATH in the coming weeks... So for long term Holder no reason to sell at the moment - not before 148
Enjoy my friend