Get started

LUNAUSDT

LUNA - Understanding the Lunatic Drop 👇🧵Trying to find the explanation of what went SO wrong with Luna i found the best possible explanation here : $UST fell to a low of $0.66 while $LUNA crashed to a low of $24.85 overnight. Lessons learned from $LUNA $UST disastrous collapse 👇🧵 But let's assess what actually happened. - $UST deposits on Anchor fell 43% in a day (currently $6.7bn) - $UST getting massively shorted + sell-off on Curve - LFG emptied out all its reserves to save the peg - Rumours that Citadel engineered the attack / Lesson 1: Death Spiral Illustrated perfectly by @ZeMariaMacedo , the design of $LUNA $UST is a giant positive feedback loop. This was the "flywheel effect" that everyone's talking about but very few actually viewed it as a double edged sword. A design that has a tendency to spiral out of control, even if it is to the upside, is a fundamental flaw. Most positive feedback loops are bad, be it in biology or engineering. Don't get caught up in the buzzwords like "flywheel effect" esp when things seem rosy. Lesson 2: Arbitrageurs can stop arb-ing $UST peg is maintained by: - Arbitrage - @stablekwon & LFG's deep pockets If $UST falls below $1 (e.g. $0.95), arbitrageurs buy $UST for $0.95, redeem the $UST and mint $1 worth of $LUNA. Profit = $0.05, $UST supply falls, $UST --> $1 But if $LUNA is in a prolonged downturn, the risk of holding onto $LUNA after minting is high. The arb profit might get wiped after minting $LUNA as $LUNA price keeps dropping, hence arbitrageurs might abstain and choose to chill instead --> stabilization mechanism fails Lesson 3: Over-reliance on Do Kwon & LFG Crypto is built on the ethos of being independent of trusted third parties. If $UST relies on the aggressive, interventionist measures of centralized entities like Do Kwon & LFG, how is it scalable? Imagine maintaining a peg by having the founder pump in capital each time shit goes south? Everything about Terra operates off the back of exogenous capital injection. Even Anchor's 20% APY relies heavily on the yield reserve top ups instead of revenue earned from lending. The idea that Terra is too big to fail is very dangerous and it's why many diehard $LUNA maxis got burned today. It's a house of card built entirely on trust, in a supposedly trustless space. Lesson 4: Cult Heroes Cult heroes in crypto have the same ending. Daniele Sesta and Frog Nation. Andre Cronje and $FTM community. Do Kwon is next... He is a great guy don't get me wrong, but never all-in your trust in a cult hero and invest on people Lesson 5: Stablecoin Designs Seems like pure-play algo stablecoins can't withstand the heat. Over-collateralized stablecoins are icky cuz they're like loans instead of currency and have a massive capital utilization problem. A hybrid model might be it... @fraxfinance Lesson 6: LFG Reserves Transparency LFG is transparent about the size of its reserves and you can track their wallets in real time. Central banks usually avoid disclosing the size of their forex reserves e.g. Singapore or they release lagged data Conclusion: A lot of trust has been lost today. It really goes to show the importance of a sound, self-sustaining system beneath the veneer of marketing gimmicks. Can $UST and $LUNA rise again? Definitely. But A LOT of work is needed to fix the fundamental design flaws.
Editors' picks
by FX_Professor
66
just as predicted what we thought about #usdtdalright guys we reached the exact point in #usdtd and the thing that I know about this chart and I'm warning you about is this, if #usdtd would be detecting the exact point that I've been marked on the chart on about 5.11% then these green candles would be the last chance to cash your portfolio, i repeat if there would be detection on 5.11% ( by the detection I mean "reaction" ) so if you are a scalper you know what to do and I guess you already have your long positions have been filled down there, but if you have anything in loss, try to decide what exactly you wanna do, keeping your portfolio and whatever it in clouds for weeks, months and maybe years? and please notice that this is just an idea and try to make your decision by yourself, because this is the market and whatever can happen on a chart, will happen. the main idea about these words is "these green candles will not last long" #stay #safe
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by rfmarandi
LUNAUSDTHello Crypto Lovers, Mars Signals team wishes you high profits. This is a one-day-time frame analysis for LUNAUSDT You are observing a heavy fall for the price after it lost its support. At the present, it is approaching the first support line and we believe it will have a fluctuation at this area. Then we expect a rise for the price. Warning: This is just a suggestion and we do not guarantee profits. We advise you analyze the chart before opening any position. Wish you luck
by MarsSignals
Head and ShouldersLUNA has been in a bull trend for over a year now, and is starting to show weakness against both USD and BTC here. The head and shoulders pattern on the LUNAUSDT broke the neckline earlier today, the volume wasn't significant but we believe as it gets weaker it will trigger panic once LUNABTC makes a lower low. I made the entry based on the risk reward ratio, it is something that every trader must understand because it protects me from losing money even if I had a higher rate of failure.
LShort
by JoE
analysis of Luna and review of support points new versionComplete analysis of Luna currency and review of support points part 2 we got +100% tp in old version here we have breakdown bear will take profit in 50 and 45 or 42 and we can buy in 45 or 50 or 47.500 42 its very good to spot trade The points marked with green lines are suitable for adding this currency to the portfolio and we can maintain it in the long or medium term and make a profit. note:All the projects to buy and add to the portfolio are also in my portfolio too...
Long
by rezaeimerlin
LUNAUSDT Hit the bottom of its 6 month Channel Up*** *** For this particular analysis on TERRA we are using the LUNAUSDT symbol on the Phemex exchange. *** *** The idea is on the 1D chart with the blue trend-line being the 1D MA50 and the orange trend-line the 1D MA200. As shown, LUNAUSD has been trading within a Channel Up ever since its December 2021 High. Two Higher Lows and another Higher High have followed, forming the bullish trend on this Channel. Today the price hit the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of this long-term Channel Up on the liner scale. On the log scale, there is still some room for a complete pull-back, which happens to be on this diverging Higher Lows trend-line as illustrated on the chart. The RSI (1D) is exactly on the level (oversold 30.000) where the last Higher Low was priced on January 30 2022. If those Support levels hold, we expect LUNA to gradually start the new rally to a Higher High within the Channel Up. Attention is needed, as this time besides the 1D MA50, it also has the 1D MA200 as a Resistance on the short-term. Potential confirmation comes if the price breaks above it. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($97.000) can be used as a medium-term target with the 1.236 ($135.000) being the long-term (which priced the previous Higher High). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
10
LUNA/USDT update : 103 resistance to watchLUNA/USDT update : 103 resistance to watch Previous analysis 7/04/2022 : After having broke 91,70 (exhaustion warning) Lune consolidate to 76 before bouncing off. The 50% retracement area has been reached and for now onlt a reintegration of 103 (61,8% Fibo level) would leans towards a direct rise towards the next target (New ATH) For now a test of 62/63 can't be ignored - the RSI is mixed and the EMA challenged. Tactical View To dangerous to short on my opinion, but for the trader who tooked profit around 108 i would wait a confirmation to re-enter, a new drop below 76 will give an opportunity to renter in the long-term trend (Most likely scenario in green) The important things to understand is : we are drawing a consolidation pattern which will produce a new ATH in the coming weeks... So for long term Holder no reason to sell at the moment - not before 148 Enjoy my friend
Long
by JeanJean1983
1
Terra (LUNA/USDT) on a Crucial Support LevelsWhile the whole crypto market bleeds profusely as the brutal attack on the BTC & ETH price continues, the majority of the altcoins drop heavily. Terra (LUNA) which was once predicted to hit a 3-digit figure, is now drowning in a deep bearish well. LUNA price currently is testing the crucial uptrend line and may enter a huge bearish trend if it breaks these levels The price may be rejected at these levels and could slide down below $50 at 0.6 FIB levels to hit $48.67 where-in a rebound may be fast approaching The rebound may assist the price to regain the levels above the trend line and quickly attain the levels above 0.6 FIB levels around $75
Short
by Coinpedia-Market-Insight
LUNA/USDT Price Prediction Analysis ( First $31 or $500.? )#LUNA/USDT Price Prediction Analysis :- = #LUNA Strong Rejected from Double TOP = Recently Broke $75 strong support Now which is Bearish Retest Level so It can test Again Before Another Dump = Now Major support is $51 ( If break then Ready to buy around $31 = Long term Support Trend-Line also at $31 = Next Bull Run Target = $500 #LINA currently trading at $61 and I told you when it will be below then bearish. Now $51 support level is very important. If break $51 level then we can see $31 Price in near future. But now $75 Support Became Strong Resistance so also keep an eye on this level.
LShort
by CryptoPatel
11
#LUNA Breaks Down as Terra Finds Support at $60Past Performance of LUNA The LUNA coin continues to slip versus the USDT when writing. Although buyers are confident, sellers have been firm. As per the performance in the daily chart, LUNA is within a bear breakout formation as bulls are capped below $80. In the previous trading week, the coin is down 11 percent against the USDT. If sellers press, the token could slide below the immediate support, slumping to Q1 2022 lows. #Terra Technical Analysis The primary support is $60, flashing with the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the Q1 2022 trade range. In a bear breakout formation, the immediate trend is defined and is southwards. As a result, traders may find entries on every correction towards $80. So far, LUNA bear bars are aligned along the lower BB, suggesting intense selling pressure. The immediate target for sellers stands at $60. However, if there are more profound losses, the coin may contract to retest $45—around Q1 2022 lows in a bear trend continuation. Such a move would unwind the gains of March and April, shaping the medium-term trajectory to solidly favor sellers. What to Expect from LUNA? The Terra ecosystem is huge and one of the most liquid. LUNA is pinned by determined sellers at spot rates and may slump below $60, heaping more pressure on optimistic Terra bulls. Resistance level to watch out for: $80 Support level to watch out for: $60 Disclaimer: Opinions expressed are not investment advice. Do your research.
Short
by Bitcoin_Analyzer