Get started

Lupacapital

AUD USD - bulls on parade towards 0.70G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. The video explains it all - Daily and weekly timeframe for reference Daily PCP - using Rally, base rally scenario. Bearish Daily move Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
Long
by LupaCapital
USD JPY - incoming 1990, then 1987?G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Monthly simply put, look at 1990 and the gap formed in the fresh supply above at 157.XX - 164.XX (1987). not there is a hidden zone within 1986 which can be a final supply zone. Weekly The market has made a double top within the weekly supply, we'll await the confirmation on the daily time frame however. The weekly zone has been built up upon a strong resilience zone from the supply zone (note this is a strong supply zone which dates back to 1990/91) , where multiple rejection weeks have occurred and price has been in an accumulation phase since. Daily High curve created for the daily supply, and now the buyers have created again a high curve, with this time a marked zone where price can pivot to (subject to confirmation), before price can begin its journey back into the supply, after a strong demand zone which can be brought back to. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIV
by LupaCapital
EUR USD, awaiting the fresh supply (weekly)G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily) Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Imbalances Weekly Imbalances Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 7+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - has the market bottom been captured? Time will tellG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Note before reading - the BLX is a delayed by 1 day of data - so review live charts - logs worth best using the delayed data for future price setups. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video without log bands and with. This is a high level explanation, so the language used is to provide a blanket cover. Daily Chart Weekly chart without logarithm bands Weekly - with logarithmic bands Monthly - zoomed in Monthly - market cycle since inception Read more from the original model explaining all the relevant information needed to know on the market cycles by viewing the links; Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
BNC:BLX
by LupaCapital
SPX500 Update - The Imbalance is forming, what to do?Note before reading; The previous analysis was private, but included in the following analysis; Here: or refer to the bottom link Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the moment, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances for additional sells. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, but is beginning to profit take and show signs of cracking. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Scenario - consists of a pullback of the market once the low has been made, where price always corrects. Keep in mind the -0.618 can and has the likelihood of returning to 4465*+ to 4702, assess the reactive level again upon an impending sell. Do your due diligence. Where price makes an all time high, price will revert most like back to "0" Fibonacci zero before reloading a bullish run. However, with the -0.786 Yet to be reached, price can offer this level to provide a large pivot point upon an imbalance created, with a liquidity spike capturing stop losses to most . See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs. Current position short Short offset to hedge longs is activated adding shorts once the imbalance has formed and retested successfully SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. *Note: please refer to US30 analysis or VIX for inverse relationship of correlation, not causation* Current scenario Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Current outlook; Using the Daily chart Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. The analysis link is attached. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! But this is no longer the case as for the wider majority - prices are now starting to take shape and cuts need to be made, and rates need to be hiked. Daily Fibonacci using the USD CAD The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price retested the Imbalance upon the weekly back to lows of 1.23 - 1.22, majority of original buyers will find new entries and the sellers would be looking to remove profits or shaken out of late positions added. - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps and has now double bottomed and now heading towards "0" Fibonacci. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Is inflation now transitory - with new FED comments - "Clearly the risk of more persistent inflation has risen," Powell said in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. ... He pledged that policymakers "will use our tools to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched." source: www.channelnewsasia.com www.bloomberg.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
2
EUR CAD - Buying power enters the marketHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the Neutral term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. *** This is released publicly - normally 2-5 days after private idea is released*** Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Weekly imbalances The Weekly Imbalance upper is drawn upon the inside candle before the price purely rejected monthly zone. Looking left - the previous weeks have established a trading range between the Monthly zone and the -0.27% Fibonacci Pivot. The selling Imbalance had created an equal top forming the weekly zone where price has failed to create higher highs. Price highs at 1.578 draw a weekly trendline on the to the anchor low to March 2021. The price has failed to break the weekly correctional channel here, therefore upon the high price has rejected to the "0" upon the Monthly Fibonacci pivot. Now with this formation, price will on the daily chart offer a highly probable engulfing breakout to the selling imbalance catching all buyers who expect the breakout. In addition to this - Using the weekly formation imbalance now formed - the next imbalance to be placed will be placed upon correctional pattern once "0" is established - looking to how price has previously recorded - the correctional hedge will offer 50-61.8% where a large consolidated structure exists - until price reacts at the these pivot zones - this is where a reactive trade is placed and sell limits. The inverse imbalance take profit zones are aligned near the monthly 0.705 at 1.421 and the -0.618 is a 1.4195. Prices will with a 95%> confidence upon the pivot reactive levels where both align . Monthly imbalance approaches The monthly imbalances are now presenting the change of hands with a probability in favour of a buying imbalance. Looking left; the reason for drawing this zone here is for two reasons; I. Using the anchor ray to plot a monthly trendline - where the low wicks have formed higher lows which have rejected liquidity zones based upon the where the monthly May 2015 candle formed with an indecision. II. Using the Fibonacci based upon the drawn zone - the correction is large here and corrects back directly to retest the imbalance and rests the wicks on the newly formed zone. II.I - Price has also developed a Net Imbalance upon the monthly zone. Using a 95% confidence based on the price pivoting upon the standard error of within =<5.0% between 61.8 and the 70.5% FR - Please refer to the white zone below, which shows the probability of the 70.5% pivot which has a statistical probability of rejecting. from a charting standpoint this doesn't matter, the point is here to purchase upon rejections using logic of a structure low, to structural highs and purchasing upon a rejected pivot. Revert to the chart below. The upper imbalance has formed based on the profit taking zones from the Fibonacci at the -0.27, -0.618 profit taking zones and has since been retested twice; The true upper limit of the imbalance is pivoting and rejecting from 1.616X at -0.618, price has now corrected to a selling imbalance and offers a "0" Fibonacci inverse pivot to retest the imbalance again which also aligns to the Fibonacci sequence 0.236 at the following levels = 1.4909 and 1.4915 and as a high probability shows imbalances to be retested . See below. Now moving to the current positional imbalance. In combination with the Weekly Fibonacci and weekly imbalances above; The Monthly anchor imbalance is formed under two criteria; I. The large scale Fibonacci Imbalance at 0.705% correctional pivot - this will be retested and rejected. II. This is Inverse Fibonacci selling imbalance profit taking zone at -0.618. Waiting and placing trades in this zone will be based on the criteria on; A position placed upon rejection A position placed between the 0.705-0.786 or on the inverse -0.618, -0.786. Daily Chart The daily chart scales in much quicker and offers - the clear opportunity for a reversal of buys, the reason being - price has shown price pivoting for two three reasons; I. The monthly Fibonacci and Imbalance zone aligns - with a tap into the monthly zone. II. The Weekly and Monthly combination of 0.705% and -0.618 matches the imbalance zones drawn. III. The Daily chart poises the pivot level and creating a consolidative bottom zone - . Price will now breakout of the Daily trendline and also - indicate a new trading range to now test the -0.27 and "0" based on the range data indicated on the chart. Correlational analysis; Both of the below analysis's provide tracking updates since back to 2020, so revert back to old analysis to see where price has come from and enjoy the reads. Note - Both trades are still active: Check out to see and track the EUR CAD - USD JPY inverse relationship GBP AUD Why is the DXY important to even non correlated pairs in this instance? - USD is still seen as a world currency - despite conflicting use deteriorating The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart USD CAD Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
3
AUD JPY - Buying, Waiting, Selling [11]Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral to Bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances up to specific areas of interest. After this, risk becomes a highly probable scenario of invalid trades and losses. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Do not exceed risk from buying at the tops of structures. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Weekly, the featured focus Looking left to 2008, what is shown? See below for the formation of the multiple tests of the imbalance formation and consolidation upon a retest of the imbalance - where, two tests of a marginal wick test almost nets or equal to the previous low. Whilst upon the consolidation zone built across a four month trading range, notice a clear rejection and following a four consecutive higher low formation. Monthly Below The monthly imbalances have been set with a clear pathway for the change of hands upon the lower imbalance , where price had completed the pattern in the inverse Fibonacci sequence upon the monthly . From how the formation setup, the clear opportunity to sell created the swing high and swing low on the monthly wicks. Price had developed the following; - Fibonacci Inverse extension had created a correctional pullback to the 50.0% but the importance here for this part of the trade offers a clue that price began to struggle to inch higher. The two previous bearish wick closes (before price tested the 50% zone), showed a breakout wave which allowed the range to create an engulfing pattern to falsely generate and mislead buyers. The net imbalance is highlighted above where price closed out on the candle body close, which means price has successfully closed out all buyers. The buying imbalance from the monthly zone at the swing low has been clear rejections upon the weekly chart , with the closing of the monthly wick, and the new formation of the an inside imbalance formed has indicated a clear long opportunity. From a weekly perspective - this now counts as the imbalance swing low. Back to the monthly, the pattern completed as above, now shows with this formed low, price will now look to change of hands upon the imbalance of sellers as opposed to buyers. Awaiting confirmations at the pivot point between the -0.27,-0.618 had allowed the opportunity to confirm and form. Looking at the historical patterns the chart has formed back in 2008, the previous imbalance origin, price had closed within the 50% body of the imbalance formation, showing a clear test and rejection >95% confidence of a bullish reversal. Daily Imbalance Price has made a new top above the previous structure "0" based on the supply imbalance upon the weekly. To show this, revert to the below chart which shows a double top formation and a break of the trend named This indicates that the buyers created a new fresh zone, which immediately is tested and corrects, knowing that imbalances have a confidence level of >95% to retest before correcting further to a Fibonacci pivot structure. From the top, a hedging trade 'sell opportunity was presented' and the sell wave began before a buying imbalance were to form as indicated above. Buys only were formed from this zone. The daily also presents the opportunity for a reversal as the inverse Fibonacci shows a take profit pivot upon the 82.2X zone at -0.27, but this is a crucial buying pivot upon the monthly at -0.27 whereby buyers will continue to add to the discounted price. Daily chart based on the pip range to expect for longs to swing trades on. Pathway In this scenario, looking for long opportunities from the imbalance based of the Fibonacci pivot and also the key driver - where the four day chart provides a double wick close at the same level (82.24) showing that the zone is highly probable of a liquidity zone (imbalance of buyers to sellers ratio) upon a rejection will indicate buy triggers. Cross-Asset: Review USD JPY chart and analysis; Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
5
USD CHF - Holding shorts - trade updateHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level. Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear. Daily chart updated Refer to previous idea for more information Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur. The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here. Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high - April 2019. Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. . The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure. Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling. The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting. Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell. 4Hour chart provides clear entry positions Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders and a break of structure re-active sell. This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view. Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows. DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure. Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description. Link to idea: Previous idea SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Remember to follow risk management and ensure partials are taken to sustain account compounding Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
4
Shiba Inu - Daily ray rejectionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. 8 Hour formation; There is a combination whereby the grey bottom correctional channel line is a 4hour line, but this as provided by the screenshot shows a clear 8hour view also encompasses the correctional channel. The channel has offered price action to move towards the upper channel boundary which will now play an important break and retest or rejection for longs as the imbalance has now formed upon the 50% high probability of a rejection of the pivot zone. Daily talk points The daily ray is intact with 3 zones of a trend rejection showing the longs are in positional play The daily close out of the correction shows that the 50% and 0.000047X is a strong psychological value which rests upon a daily and weekly imbalance zone. The lower highs being created from the wicks by looking left have offered shorts to be closed out and retested with sellers unable to provide lower lows in the market. This is a sign the trend is reversing for you support and resistance traders. Please be aware that while analysing ETH, BTC, XRP, ADA - the reversion imbalances have often tested 70.5% so expect a pullback to the weekly zone as shown below. To see further studies of this - review my other analysis'. What the top formation correction would offer at a high probable scenario The chart speaks for itself as to what occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - Testing a crucial zone - November updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Previous Analysis Monthly Imbalance Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. The structure Indicates all in a clear move. Profit zones in terms of adding the red dotted line, indicates where measured sells will be closed out. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to faulter. Hence a higher sell probability. Moving to where we are now using the weekly. Based on the above and previous analysis update, we have seen tremendous growth in terms of selling off as a bearish imbalance. Price has double bottomed upon the "Fibonacci 0" which aligns to the imbalance upon the weekly candle as shown in the purple zone. Price can reject immediately as the zone is strong, however the probability of price to overextend to the -0.27 or reject in between upon the body of the weekly bearish inside candle (looking left) this is a highly probable zone to change hands. 8 Hour view & 16hour view the 8 hour time session provides a clear impulse, correction and impulse time and time again in this trade, offering multiple tops to sell from and if looking to hedge, buying opportunities which are presented too. The pivot points of said correctional moves have created lower high formations upon the Fibonacci sequence which given probability of using "falling, to the right" approach, then the trend is showing where price is looking to take us, ideally walking down. Zoom into the 1hour and 15mins for precise entries, although it's not about this, the overall idea is to use risk management and keep stop losses out of reach to allow price to breath on the original move. 16 hours before See the 16hour analysis to assist further; This lays down to the four hour chart too, consisting of the same pattern 16 hours after A four hour view The four hour view provided a clear See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. Please note* I'm not tracking this any further as the shift of weak GBP and Strong AUD & CAD no longer aligned with asymmetrical movements. Commodity moves have raised the state of AUD, CAD respectively towards correctional tests upon imbalances. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
2
Shiba Inu - A full technical analysisHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Excuse the delay on this, I began writing this on the 24th October. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour What is Shiba Inu Token? The First look at the Shiba Inu token came in August of 2020, when its developers took live with the creation to the market, along with an anonymous creator known as “Ryoshi” with an initial supply of one quadrillion tokens, of which was to send 50% of all the tokens on Uniswap and threw away the key (effectively render useless). The remaining 50% were then gifted away, or “ burned ”, to the Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Market dominance Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link. Attached to the chart is Shiba Inu Dominance tracking - where a positive correlation relating to added userbase, volume of transactions using the 26-27th trading activity for reference 24-hour trading volume of $10,2B USD which adds overall long position sentiment. What must happen now to the supply of ERC-20 tokens? Well in order to reduce the supply will of course boost the price having a fixed circulation of tokens available will to those who hold will incur investors to gain. The supply Total is 1,000,000,000,000,000 or 1Quadrillion coins; where the following calcs have been removed; Burn Wallet = -410,253,870,302,595 Uniswap = - 94,183,555,893 India Covid Relied = -10,139,544,347,612 Vitalik Buterin = -46,000,000,201,480 (0xab58) Review the etherscan here for the transactions etherscan.io Est circulating supply retained 497,730,966,630,395 or 497Trillion coins With Supply Burn Triggers - let's do the maths. so using every listing $25k shib and leash - burn implements. Use 1,000 listings for $25k = 25million burned Using a burn rate of 3%, and based on 100m coins and an annual 30% YOY gain in price with a supply of 497T coins. Based on price at a current price 0.00005660 The formula would look like so. =current price*(1+Annual increase YOY)+(Coin supply-new supply after burn)/New net total coin supply Other variables to consider will be;** Refer to model note Implied Crypto market cap, Implied ship market cap, implied Price & Burning factors Refer to BTC chart below or to track the Crypto Dominance vs Total market cap - refer to the link below Doge Vs Shiba Inu against relative market Dominances. Attached is the private tracking of the two coins and the represented inverse correlation between the two Coins. The negative correlation of the Dogecoin price as well as the dominance is taking effect with the rise of the inverse correlation coin Shiba, whereby the addition of trade volume and ecosystems on which the crypto's are built on are now beginning to take effect. With Doge having a peak of 4% of the market and a market cap of $89.5-7BN, the coins price is now on a market decline as it is now established, but has not yet reached the desired imbalance nor %Dominance which comes with it. A possible coin fluctuation price can be highly probable between the purple imbalance Doge Imbalance upon the monthly and weekly combined 8 Hour chart What is the 8 hour chart showing? Well firstly, a great formation of a correctional symmetrical triangle using the 8hour session candles. This chart pattern has formed through the formation of either a declining lower highs and or an increasing lower lows. Two lines are drawn upon the line squeezes which moves towards an Apex. Depending on inclining higher lows and higher highs within the structure squeeze, then the pattern will produce a bullish continuation upon the Apex breakout. Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle Bearish example using Shiba INU Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. Four Day chart Why here? The pull back on the four day chart had resulted in the building block which had perfectly placed itself upon the Fibonacci pivot zones upon the 38.2-50% - this formed the block to gain pivotal long additions as a double tweezer bottom occurred as well as a bearish candle which pulled back, this creates to most shorter time frame traders being daily time frame and below, a correctional move to instate a block which closes on the half body of the introductory candle from the top wick. This failed to break the weekly imbalance and has shown a high probability for added long positions. Market Capitalisation of ShibaINU: Refer to Coinmarket cap for further information regarding supplies, analytics and the ever changing landscape of the Volume, market cap of the top Crypto's. coinmarketcap.com Four Hour chart The four hour has shown two areas of key interest for adding longs, one key market structure offers the consolidation where price broke out of the triangle apex and engulfed, but came to a high, of which needed a move to look for a Fibonacci pivot based on the structure newly formed which showed a pivot point between 50-61.8% but provided tweezer bottom which is perfect rejection candles to see when analysing the candlesticks. The rejection upon the 50% again has provided the extension pattern to complete at a 1.618 Extension and further, but ofcourse first the hurdle is to retest the Supply imbalance based upon the Fibonacci "0"* and the introduction of the all time high. (See below) A smaller scale imbalance which has just been used at the time of writing has shown the netting of, the selling pressure has netted of the wick - therefore closing out at a showing the zone is valid as an equal low has incurred and buying change of hands has occurred again upon counter-traders and profit takers. *Fibo Shiba Inu Ecosystem: What is Leash and Bone? LEASH tokens are staked or buried, the one staking the coins receives a reward in the form of x LEASH tokens, effectively the holders of x Leash holders are part of the liquidity pool, where a new block is created holders receive a proportional value to share of the pool. The digger of the of token receives a share of Leash ETH SSLP * Bone burying BONE tokens, the user receives tBONE. This entitles the holder the right to be part of a pool that provides the members 1% of all the BONE per block. And digging, in this case, is similar to the function for the LEASH tokens. The person digging or providing liquidity receives a share of the Bon -ETH SSLP* What is Shibaswap? This is a decentralized exchange created for the Shiba Inu community. The community gathers around three main coins: SHIB (the foundational currency of the Shiba Inu, II - LEASH (incentivised on ShibaSwap), and BONE (ShibaSwap’s governance token). The exchange/Swap allows buyers, sellers of the ERC-20 token to be supported by the Shibaswap exchange. Bury Staking (also known as BURY): staking pools for the ecosystem’s tokens (SHIB, BONE, LEASH). It allows you to earn token rewards while staking the tokens. Each pool has different time-locking intervals as well as APYs. Rewards are in the 3 figures percentages and are paid in BONE. Further fundamental news which assist the price increases NFT token - 10,000 digitalized “lovable creatures” sold out in minutes, Shiba Inu NFTs were available only on the protocol’s DEX – ShibaSwap, buying and trading will be “completely free (except for the gas fee)." - which uses ETH from 0.1ETH + Shiba INU token burns - through transactions Bigger Entertainment - 20Shib tokens burned per song while listening to a playlist of 397 songs. Robinhood listing* - creating further opportunities to further userbase now having access to the crypto to trade. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
10
XAG USD - found its feetHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart: Weekly Chart Presents two scenarios; 1. Break and rested upon a break from the channel and formation on the daily. 2. A rejection of the channel, but a change of hands ever present upon the weekly imbalance zone XAG USD four Day [analysis originating from May 21st 2021. Weekly Chart The weekly chart is currently in the monthly zone or if a Fibonacci retracement pivot trader, this zone aligns the monthly 50% and 61.8% ratios whereby the bullish imbalance will takeover. While Gold does not have a clear rejection of the 61.8% low of $1680 zone, and again the 50% - where price is currently forming upon the $1766mark.* *note, the price as it is currently forming, will still experience wicks to the downside pressure upon a daily and weekly chart until the rejection zone has netted off with a lower timeframe imbalance. What does the Weekly Symmetrical triangle show? Based off how symmetrical triangles works both in a bearish and bullish capacity. However the difference here is that in this scenario - using probability upon how the candlesticks have displayed upon the chart, a bearish formation while not a text book definition, will normally print a closer lower high, lower high upon the downside lower weekly line forming the bottom of the structure, however a mechanism here the higher timeframe is offering here is a very heavy "resistance", or in a more technical approach, an imbalance between buyers, sellers and pivot points within the trading range. [ See chart below labelled 1 ] Using the higher lows the chart is producing, *the sentiment bias leans to bullish, however, adding positions will occur upon rejected levels as opposed to intra-day trades. Chart 1 Gold Daily Chart Monthly Gold Chart The imbalances are clear defined zones of where price has previously captured highs and lows and created imbalances upon buying or selling pressure - depending on the trading outlook. Formations whilst experiencing new data with no implied candlesticks either changing the landscape in which a top or bottom has not formed reverting to Fibonacci extensions and previous highs assist in establishing, along with patience upon printing new candles which guide the next move. Gold and Silver ratio XAG - Silver - in silver line formation XAU - Gold - Gold/yellow line formation The weekly chart shows here the steady 'Need' for both metals. The ratio of gold and silver looks to measures the number of ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold. Whilst a measure which is not entirely causation upon large moves by Gold, it does provide investors hope to estimate the relative valuations between the two metals, informing to buy or sell at any given time. Monthly Ratio SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
BTC vs Bitcoin Dominance Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading An interesting note: Based on a modelling concept using a base case where the Cryptocurrency market reaches the size of the gold market and Bitcoin remains at around 50% Market dominance and or reaches 60%+ as the market has previous held % dominance of. The price of BTC can reach heights of according to the multiplication factor of the model. Note: Using at the time of model the gold market is 11.03Trillion. The Implied market cap of 6,781.80T at 60% gives an implied price per BTC at $360,734.04 per BTC. 50% Market dominance will provide an implied price per BTC at $300,611.70 per BTC. To know further about the model please message me in the comments or privately for further information. Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Bi-monthly Chart The weekly sell zone from $64K All time high (at current). The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone - refer to Weekly chart - Weekly Chart The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%. Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation. The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin. Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% * based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat. Source: coinmarketcap.com Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
GBP USD - October update - Heavy sells, but what next?Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle Monthly Imbalance Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. The structure Indicates all in a clear move. Profit zones in terms of adding the red dotted line, indicates where measured sells will be closed out. Two Day Volume profile Here lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. See further for an isolated chart Here is the latest trades taken. Using the hour timeframe s3.tradingview.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
10
GBP JPY - short due to higher timeframes confirming sellsHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, where the main trades are placed at 154.5X and 156X respectively and now 152.05 . Previous analysis: Private Analysis gave key criteria for the short. May 4th - Weekly chart The main plan here is execute upon the rejection of 0.382% Fibonacci as the daily chart shows a lower highs being created as well as within the weekly imbalance - equal lows, which is suggested a high probability with chart patterns this can now break? This will be a reactive trade, so trade according to your plan with defined risk management. The higher timeframe suggests a volatile re-bound swing after every selling day. So take this into account. Here is the current Weekly Scenario This takes into account the movements where buyers took control of the correctional See further for the before -0.618% Reversion price fractal found in the daily Imbalance. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities, to understand why this area is of interest, refer to the upload chart provided. Be aware any reactive level offers volatility and an opportunity to add buy orders, sell orders to generate hedged net positions. Daily Chart; Here is the wedge pattern in which in combination with the trendline remaining intact, The Fibonacci probability of the reactive zones have been consistent in shorting aspects The daily chart shows the lower highs and equal lows forming The 152.0 - 152.3 zone was perfect to short - where the 8 hour chart shows my thought process. 8Hour Chart Successful Retest of the zone - Four Hour chart today Clear move up to 152.00 - 152.3 as the traffic shows no strong move against the selling yet. Please await the next zone for making an opportunity. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. It looks like the Sterling pairs are correcting and correlating, meanwhile XAU is whipsawing upon the 1775-1800 mark. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. To see the inverse correlation (not causation) of two GBP pairs, both affected by the reactive levels taking place at the same time. Please note* trading opposite correlated pairs upon a imbalance level is highly not advised due to 100% loss taking trades in opposite directions when price reverts against you. The strategy should be implemented upon confirms. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Editors' picks
Short
by LupaCapital
9
BTC - Growing as Market dominance low equalledHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Bi-monthly Chart The weekly sell zone from $64K All time high (at current). The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone - refer to Weekly chart - Weekly Chart The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%. Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green See what happened from our previous analysis - From the $50,000, a trade hedge has been place to capture selling opportunities as price offered a opportunity to short term sell, but long term holding target - subject to pivot points. Trade is now in full profit and if stopped out, no losses will be incurred Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
US OIL - October continues to surpriseHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Updated Idea: April 30th 2021 Understanding where we are now with the imbalances. Price has tested on the weekly the $67.00 high, which was a critical double top move allowing a correction to take place bringing price back towards $61.50. This established a weekly imbalance where April 19th 2021, the previous bearish wick offered a pricing pivot point. The Sellers had "netted" where the lowest point of the candle matched the fractal, allowing the market to create structural imbalance to add long positions. The engineered lows lured sellers and buyers to add aggressively. . The imbalances have netted off on the weekly to the monthly candle of February, March 2021. Now refer to the Monthly - price of the wicks low, closed at the monthly close two months previous - resting on top - meaning, the bullish movements are still in clear progression. Buy Zone was between 61.8 - 66.8 $ Daily Chart - buying from the retrace. Price had made a great opportunity here for a buying opportunity whereby price will test the new established Daily imbalance. The price has shown now a breakout of the downward corrective channel. This is played out perfectly - where a A,B,C,D pattern has been created see here Fibonacci & Daily Imbalance Combination Above the weekly imbalance block, price had surpassed and created the buying impulses, price needed to fill the wick as at 8th March 2021, and build upon the high probability of extending higher highs. Based upon the Fibonacci pattern, price established its peak "0" and once forming a -0.27 extension high, a correctional retest of the imbalance was required. This aligns with the Daily and weekly imbalance blocks. Volume Analysis The battle around the reactive zone is strong as the hidden battle under a monthly imbalance is a weekly imbalance, where movements create opportunities for price filling of monthly wicks. Price needed to revert from the monthly zone above $68--> to recapture correctional moves and stimulate the buying structure in place. Where confirmations were measure above, buyers were still in control. The range of buying and selling upon a weekly bullish candle cancelled out allows range traders and short term speculators to join in the liquidity. Note how the top of the volume range - bulls and bears back off, leaving the buyers to take over. USD CAD vs WTI Inverse correlation, but interesting relationship overall, as the Loonie weakens, the opportunity cost for buying from imbalances from the monthly offers the Dollar to gain traction towards the next zone. Price also offers the WTI as the Canadian Dollar weakens, pressure of the commodity to rise. The relationship between looks to the output of barrels. Use the link below to look at the US table and CAD table. US www.tradingview.com CAD www.tradingview.com Fundamental Fans: Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash. 2020-2021. We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. Here is the current cross examination of the UK Oil Vs WTI using the weekly chart. Both are approaching a critical point in the respective price zones which both happen to be monthly imbalance zones. The correlations are gearing to a highly reactive point, so watch with caution. Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Adding the inflation ETF into the mix, the commodity price is rising inline with both the UK oil and WTI - so again the rate of positive correlation here is showing highly probable further increments to long positions. See below for the weekly chart. Opec Commentary: A gradual increase in oil output which has bolstered price, however to add to this the implications of inflationary pressures that consuming nations fear will derail an economic recovery from the pandemic. Supplies from the US and India and China for extra supplies after oil prices surged more than 50% this year Opec news source Where the output has now been boosted by "400,000bpd a month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts - already much reduced from the huge curbs that were in place during the worst of the pandemic" Reuters.com 4th october 2021. Output policy unchanged sources say. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
5
SPX - October updatePrevious analysis's October 1 - Sept 21 - pre-warning of the rising wedge Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
USD CHF - Made a move from the Daily imbalanceThis is a late upload for public view - private trade released below for further info. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level. Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear. Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur. The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here. Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high - April 2019. Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. . The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure. Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling. The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting. Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell. 4Hour chart provides clear entry positions Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders and a break of structure re-active sell. This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view. Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows. DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure. Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
AUD CAD - Rejection upon the RetracementHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD CAD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price reacted to the level -0.786 Fibonacci Extension, which aligns from the 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly Imbalance The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.91 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price - objectively closing out the The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to buy. Weekly Pathway The weekly pathway offers a solid opportunity to buy from the imbalance - whereby price has corrected and now formed bullish candles justifying a break of structure. Do not rule out a retest of this zone, before entering a second position* The probability offers a strong area of a change of hands from buyers and sellers - hence why this is a reactive zone upon the completion of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci Pattern is completed on the daily Very simply taking the high to the low application of structure, price targets end up in a completion pattern which correlates to a weekly, monthly structure where price will pivot and create a "demand" or "supply" (however this case it is a buying demand). This is known as the true value of an imbalance where short sellers are now discounting the price to the reversion point for buyers to enter at a discount factor. Based on the high reversion probability - entering a buy based upon confirmation where imbalances "net off" the structure can offer applications of buying power. Refer to the Chart of USDCAD or AUD USD for references - both showing discount factors. USD CAD weekly chart AUD USD correction upon the weekly chart Current positions New position added on the Monthly zone touch and rejection. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
USD CAD - Consolidated long pathway Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please note: Data and charts have been removed - refer to the analysis above which shows further information relating to the analysis as a whole. Previous analysis's Monthly Imbalance Update: Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Update of the weekly chart Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. Possible pathway - showing a volatile scenario USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The breakout has now occurred and price is now retracing from the weekly zone on USD CAD - however, the pullback will become bullish again with the pathway showing a clear upside of USD strength and DXY room to grow. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
SPX - Fibonacci reactive sell - Neutral stance at presentNeutral Application until Imbalance forms: Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. Update or original 8 hour The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs. Adding in volume - to assist identifying the current up, down interest where buyers, sellers are at present. This helps assist with searching for High Volume Nodes (HVN) which are peaks in volume at or around a price level, the operation behind this is buyers, sellers provide high volume, keeping price steady over a trading range e.g. 1-2weeks+ offering an area of fair value. This will help look for shorter term ranges to trade. SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. With that being said, the risks presenting the wedge, come with a re-active level where the "low volatility below 20" has been supressed by the market, the risk implied that and the importance of hi-lighting the exposure to all time highs in the US , that and world markets a like has presented opportunities to sensitivity of prices to faulter. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
2
GBP USD - Here comes a transition of changeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis: Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Further Evidence Looking to the volume profile added to where lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD See further for an isolated chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3