ShortThis stock has been significantly overvalued for an extended period and seems to be due for a correction. Let’s take a closer look at what might unfold in the coming days:
If the stock breaks below the critical level of 1995, we could see a swift move down towards 1589. This level is an important support zone, but it doesn’t mean the downward move will stop there. Investors should be cautious, as there might be some relief around 1725, which could act as a temporary support point. However, this relief would likely be short-lived. Given the overall overvaluation and current market conditions, any bounce off 1725 would likely be weak and won't signal a sustainable recovery.
The key trigger for further downside would be a breach and close below 1995. Once this level is convincingly broken, the stock could face a significant downtrend. In such a case, investors should look to exit their positions, but with a well-placed stop-loss above 2175 to manage risk. That stop should offer protection in case of any unexpected rally or short-term bounce.
Looking further ahead, a deeper correction towards 1509 appears to be the more plausible scenario, considering the current overvaluation and market sentiment. This deeper pullback could be a key buying opportunity for those who are patient and have a longer-term perspective. Once the stock reaches these levels, it would present a more attractive risk-to-reward ratio for accumulation, as it could set the stage for a recovery that eventually takes the stock to new highs.
Lupinshort
LUPIN : Making or Breaking?1. Key Analysis and Levels
Wave C Completion Zone (₹1946-1982):
The price has reached a potential corrective Wave C termination area, which often acts as a demand zone where buyers re-enter.
This zone is a high-probability reversal region based on Elliott Wave principles.
Stop Loss Level (₹1924):
Positioned below the Wave C correction zone to manage risk in case of further downside.
Protects against potential failure of the demand zone.
First Target Zone (₹2245-2277):
Represents the extended retracement of Wave B and serves as a logical resistance zone for profit booking.
Change of Character (CHoCH):
A CHoCH signal (change from lower lows to higher highs) could confirm the start of a new bullish wave.
2. Trade Setup
A. Long Trade Setup:
Why Long?
The price has reached a critical demand zone (₹1946-1982) with potential for reversal.
The CHoCH zone suggests a possible trend change to bullish.
Entry: Around ₹1980-2000, upon observing bullish price action (e.g., hammer candlestick, engulfing patterns).
Stop Loss: ₹1924, ensuring minimal risk if the correction extends.
Targets:
₹2245-2277: Key resistance zone at the extended retracement of Wave B.
Trailing stops can be used for further upside beyond ₹2277.
B. Short Trade Setup (If Demand Zone Fails):
Why Short?
A strong breakdown below ₹1924 could indicate the demand zone has failed, leading to continuation of the downtrend.
Entry: Below ₹1924 after confirmation of breakdown with volume.
Targets:
₹1850: Immediate support from prior structure.
₹1720-1750: Deeper demand zone.
Stop Loss: ₹1970 to avoid being caught in a false breakdown.
3. Explanation of Analysis
Wave C Completion:
The corrective Wave C often concludes near key Fibonacci retracement levels, aligning with ₹1946-1982 here.
This zone has historical relevance as a demand area.
CHoCH Confirmation:
A breakout and higher high beyond the consolidation range would validate bullish sentiment.
Risk-Reward Dynamics:
Well-defined stop loss and target zones ensure favorable risk-to-reward setups for both long and short trades.
4. Confirmation Signals
For Long Entry:
Price stability and bullish reversal signals (e.g., RSI divergence, bullish engulfing candles) in the ₹1946-1982 zone.
A confirmed breakout above ₹2020 would further validate the trend reversal.
For Short Entry:
A decisive close below ₹1924 with high volume and bearish momentum.
5. Risk Management
Limit risk to 1-2% of your trading capital per trade.
Use scaling techniques to lock partial profits at the first target zone, trailing stop losses for additional gains.
Why This Plan Works
This trading strategy combines Elliott Wave analysis, demand-supply dynamics, and structured price levels to anticipate a potential bullish reversal. It also incorporates a contingency plan for a bearish breakdown, ensuring preparedness for all market scenarios.
LUPIN--Bearish from 810 range??Observations::
the stock is trending upwards in daily time frame.
now the price is facing resistance @800 range.
If price breaks this resistance we have an immediate resistance @810 range.
now the stock is looking weak in buyside, if it will sustain above 800-810 range we will observe some bullish momentum again.
if price breaks 770 range we will observe fall till 740 range, keep track this instrument.
we have demand zone @700 range, will acts as support.
keep use alerts in this stock at respected levels.