LVMH (MC.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in French company LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.pa) at daily chart. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton commonly known as LVMH, is a French holding multinational corporation and conglomerate specializing in luxury goods, headquartered in Paris, France. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 19/08/2021, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 38 days towards 594.50 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 716.60 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
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Lvmh
LVMH - fundamental - fair value: 305,8025/03/2021 19:30
-Markey cap: 279,848
Dividend: 279,848 * 1,08% = 3,022B
MC's dividend payments are covered by earnings.
30/06/2020 Dividend yield: 1,2% 30/06/2020
Dividend per share: €4,8
Earnings per share: €8,793
-PE ratio < 25: 59,61
-Profit margin > 10%: 10,53%
-Revenue growth past 5 years: yes (2020) 44,636m - (2016) 37,6m
-Profit growth past 5 years: yes (2020) 4,702m - (2016) 3,981m
-# shares outstanding declining: no. (2020) 504m - (2016) 502m
-Current assets > current liabilities: yes TA 108,671> TC 69,842
-FCF growth: yes (2020) 8,378 - (2016) 3,971
-price to FCF: €305,80
If I missed something pls let me know I'm just 16 and just want to learn as much as I can.
As much as I love LVMH my own research says the stock is overvalued. I hope I can help someone with this.
sources: yahoo finance & documents-financiers-2020_va_v2 (search investor relations lvmh - documents)
Louis Vuitton & Dow Jones Intermarket correlation between Dow Jones and Louis Vuitton , and the fractal correlation between Yield curve ( US 10Y - US 02 Y ) and NZD AUD shift forward 353 weeks ,this technique of moving forward is used by Larry Williams and aims to align the same Wyckoff phases of two out of phase, unrelated graphs. The Yield curve is the most powerful indicator for the stock markets, the inversion of the curve predicts the trend change, I have devised a fractal system that predicts the yield curve, moving the Nzd Aud chart forward I get a fractal correlation that has existed for 25 years, will it continue to exist? if the answer is yes then it is telling us that the yield curve will change direction, but if it changes direction it means that the dow jones will also change direction, if this "law" is maintained, if the fractality is maintained I also have the information that will change the trend for Louis Vuitton too.
LVMH Long IdeaLogic: in confirmed uptrend following steep correction & 2 month sideways consolidation.
Entry: €365 or better, (ideally to be bought on a pullback into 200D EMA in the €360-€365 area).
Stop: €343
Risk: -6.03%
Target: €403 initially (gap close), longer term €426, yearly R1 area.
Gain: +10.41% & longer term +16.71%
Note: longer term play in the strongest luxury name.
BEARISH - LVMH 60MN - IDEAS WHYSuper strong resistance up there at 362.60.
Atfer a series of testing the market breaks the uptrend support
to end out breaking also the VWAP with strong volumes as a backup.
Last volume is the biggest and the tentative of new uptrend signal has been rejected at the VWAP.
Coming next:
- Most likely a bearish movement targeting first the 328.30 level.
-Possibility to go further down.
- Otherwise the market could again test the VWAP.
Decision will then to be taken after observation of new pullback or break.
Strong stock LVMH is doing well if you compared it with the 2008 crisis level we are just below 301 a strong support and we might go toward 238.8 or even lower but unless we close below 140.95 LVMH might be a good stock to have in your portfolio
For long term investors the EPS = 14.25 and Dividend yield 2.16% you could wait for 238 to start buying it
Long term investments - 2019: LVMH - LVMUY - MC.FRLong term investments - 2019:
This is a series of posts on long term investment for 2019.
Every serious investor establishes a solid money management with a balanced risk factor.
Investing 100% of your savings in forex or crypto currency is like make a blind all in at poker.
So a key factor is to choose which asset allocation suites better for you and to found low risk investments on long term.
This investment and assets suits my needs.
Today choice is LVMH group but could be other luxury assets . This is why:
1- The World Economic Forum (WEF) pubblished the new World Inequality Report 2018 where it is highlighted an increase of inequality between high and low salary. As a consequence, who has money can spend more in luxury stuff and luxury assets will continue to grow in long term.
2- Technically speaking, the first strong resistance area is between 352 and 364, so there is enough room at north for increase its value.
3- Looking at seasonality charts (2015-2019), best moment to buy are January, July and September.
If you like my ideas and scripts, please leave a feedback and follow me.
LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton merges with TiffanyApparently low interest rates are one of the best christmas presents of the year so far. What would you do if you could enlarge your business at almost zero cost? Withouth any doubt the vast majority of us would say yes. And thats exactly what LVMH Corporation did with Tiffany:
"LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (“LVMH”), the world’s leading luxury group and Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF ) (“Tiffany”), the global luxury jeweler, today announced that the companies have entered into a definitive agreement whereby LVMH will acquire Tiffany for $135 per share in cash, in a transaction with an equity value of approximately €14.7 billion or $16.2 billion."
But the best part is that this colision will be fiannced by the issuance of bond with 1% interest rate: "Arnault told Reuters that LVMH would finance the purchase with debt, adding the group could currently pay interest of less than 1% to issue bonds."
Thats what I call a 100% deal.
What is gonna happen now? LVMH representative were scared that Hong Kong protests may affect Tiffany results... But if the agreement has been reached, things shouldn't be so bad! Worth following the value, however, it can be late to purchase...
On the other hand, for the last few years, we can see a general and sustained growth since December 2016, when the four EMA curves began rising simultaneously.
Looking at the MACD indicator and Relative Volatility Index , a short-term correction could be expected.
LVMH forecast in next couple of daysYou love France? Me too! Here is the analysis of LVMH for the end of the day.
This analysis used Fibonacci and my indicator called "Min_equity_Thesis_indicator" in Public library of Trading View. I estimated the way of LVMH over the next day.
But in Short term my signal is short with a target price of 1.23.
If you have any comment, let me know.