Get started

Lyft

Airbnb (ABNB): Everything You Need to Know for the IPOAirbnb is an online rental marketplace for lodging, home stays, and tourism experiences. The company does not own any real estate listings, but offers a platform through which people can take part in the sharing economy. Airbnb announced its filing for an initial public offering (IPO) in August. In this analysis, we’ll be going over everything investors need to know about the IPO, and my own insight on whether this is a golden opportunity. Most of the information provided below is based on the S1 Airbnb Submitted to the SEC. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. Business Model - Airbnb connects hosts who are willing to provide room, with guests - Airbnb profits from charging a service fee to both the host and the guest - While it initially started off as hosts providing bedrooms, the company has managed to find and expand on different types of lodges. - Airbnb is well known for its systematic operations; they have a unique guest/host review system, rules regarding cancellations and deposits, and is oriented and focused on building a community. Counterparts Cases - Airbnb’s counterparts include companies like Expedia group (EXPE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG) - It’s important to take into consideration the growing competitiveness within the booking market. - Unlike Airbnb, both Expedia group and Booking Holdings are reporting solid earnings as their operating profits increase yoy. - TripAdvisor (TRIP), which reported $156m in revenue for 2019 and an operating profit of $18.7m, while small, is another example of companies competing against Airbnb - However, to be fair, these companies also all fell victim to the Covid-19 pandemic. IPO Information - The company will be listed on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker ABNB - The specific date of the IPO and price per share is yet to be officially announced. Financials - Due to Covid-19, the company’s revenue and profitability plummeted in 2020. - Q2 2020 revenue was $350m, which is a 67% compared to Q2 2019, which recorded a quarterly revenue of over a billion. - These numbers are less than half of the reported revenue for Q1 2020, of $842m - As a result, the company’s valuation dropped from $31b to $18b. - The fact that the company is not profitable yet is also quite fatal. - In 2017 and 2018, there was a lot of hype around the company as they showed positive numbers for their EBITDA (earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) - But, the company has been reporting inconsistent revenue ever since, and their sales and marketing - As of September 30 2020, the company has $2.6b in cash, which is more than numbers reported for cash and cash equivalents in 2019 and 2018. - Nonetheless, this is way below their short term net liabilities of $4.38b, which is considered a warning sign in terms of financial stability. - Additionally, they have $1.8b in long term debt as well. - Taking all of this into consideration, we could make an educated guess that Airbnb is trying to seek for funds through this IPO. - It has already undergone its Series F investments, and is a unicorn company (a private company with a valuation over $1b), which makes it difficult to receive any further meaningful investments. Covid-19 Impact - Airbnb is part of the industry that was arguably most heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic - They had a net 4.1m cancellations in March, when fear regarding Covid-19 peaked. - I’ve mentioned this in a previous analysis, but Covid-19 has fundamentally changed the way we live forever - As a result, Airbnb’s goal of creating a community of hosts and guests has faced a huge obstacle, as people prefer to stay at hotels, which involve lower risk of Covid-19 infections. - Thus, whether people would want to travel via Airbnb after the pandemic is solved still remains extremely murky, as clear solutions to the current situation are yet to be proposed. - Unlike other large tech companies, Airbnb lacks the cash to endure a long phase of hardship. - Due to the impact of Covid-19, the company has laid off over 1,900 employees to cut costs. Historical Cases - We have seen other companies within the sphere of the sharing economy take part in IPOs that have failed miserably - Companies such as Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) are prime examples. (Refer to the charts on the right) - They were provided multiples way above their actual value, and their stock prices eventually fell way below the IPO price. - WeWork, once valued at $47b, failed its IPO due to massive debt and shaky corporate structures, and is now valued at $2.9b - Given past cases of other tech companies within the realm of the sharing economy having undergone failed IPOs due to overvalued multiples, it’s important to consider why Airbnb might be exempt from this case. Mike’s Insight In summary, while Airbnb’s listing is arguably the most important IPO of 2020, investors need to consider all possible factors before participating in the IPO. Its growing number of users suggest that the business is on the right track over the long run, but is faced with a serious external risk that the company has no control over. As this risk extends throughout time, the more damaging it is to the fundamentals of the business, thus providing room for investors to reconsider the proper valuation of the company. In my humble opinion, given that the company goes public at a $30b valuation, I think we’d see prices drop sharply after the IPO. Nonetheless, I could consider adding it to my portfolio as we see clearer signs of the world recovering from the coronavirus. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:ABNB
by Michael_Wang_Official
52
THE WEEK AHEAD: DKNG, BYND, LYFT EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, SLV, QQQEARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: WKHS (18/146/38.8%),* Monday, before market open. PLUG (32/100/25.6%), Monday, before market open. DKNG (32/89/23.6%), Friday, before market open. CGC (39/132/23.5%), Monday, before market open. BYND (32/77/18.9%), Monday, after market close. LYFT (16/71/18.0%), Tuesday after market close. Pictured here is a BYND December 18th 130/200 short strangle that was paying 7.95 at the mid price as of Friday close, with the short legs camped out at the 18 delta. This yields at or greater than two times expected move break evens and a delta/theta metric of -.58/23.86. Alternative Defined Risk Setup: BYND December 18th 125/130/200/205 iron condor, paying 1.59 at the mid price as of Friday close with break evens at the expected move on the put side/greater than 2 x the expected on the call and delta/theta metrics of .96/2.45. Unfortunately, WKHS, PLUG, and CGC all announce on Monday before the open, so any play would've been best put on before the end of Friday's session, although they could still be playable after they make their earnings announcement move. LYFT: Short straddle or iron fly. DKNH: Short strangle or iron condor. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: XOP (14/53/14.1%) USO (9/57/13.4%) GDXJ (16/47/12.9%) SLV (38/50/12.7%) GDX (16/39/10.9%) EWZ (17/41/10.7%) XLE (25/41/10.6%) BROAD MARKET RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: QQQ (25/30/7.2%) IWM (24/29/7.2%) SPY (19/24/6.0%) EFA (21/21/5.3%) IRA DIVIDEND EARNERS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE THE DECEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING: SLV (38/50/12.7%)** EWZ (17/41/10.7%) XLE (25/41/10.6%) KRE (22/39/10.5%) * -- The first metric is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility as of Friday close; and the third, what the December at-the-money short straddle is paying as a percentage of stock price. ** -- Neither SLV nor GLD pay a dividend.
NASDAQ:BYND
by NaughtyPines
3
UBER vs LYFT: A technical comparison.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see what’s going on with UBER and LYFT today. Both stocks are doing some impressive movements, so it is a good time to study them. First, let’s start with UBER. The stock is doing a phenomenal movement today, but if we look at the charts, it just hit a resistance zone today, the black line at $ 41.86, and now it is doing what it seems to be a Spinning Top candlestick pattern . Either way, UBER must keep trading above the yellow line at $ 38.59, because if it loses it, a pullback to the 21 ema is expected . But despite the fact UBER is moving sideways since June, it seems the trend is slightly more bullish than bearish, and UBER is trying to defeat the resistance at the black line. I see the 21 ema as an important support, but the red line at $ 32.89 is another support zone. In the worst-case scenario, UBER would hit the blue line at $ 28.53, but it is way too soon to say this. Today’s gap could be a Breakaway Gap , and if that’s the case, it won’t be filled so soon. But if it is a Common Gap , then it’ll be filed in the next few days, and UBER will be back to the congestion. I would just keep an eye on the black and yellow lines for now. Now, let’s see LYFT. Lyft almost hit the previous resistance at the red line, and now it is dropping sharply. The good news is that it just hit a dual support zone , made by the yellow line (previous resistance) and the purple trendline. The idea of a Breakaway or Common Gap applies here as well , and if LYFT loses its two supports, we’ll see a sharper pullback ahead, and it’ll probably fill the gap. Honestly, it seems the bulls will have a hard time now to defeat the resistances on UBER and LYFT, and a pullback would be great for the stocks, and it could even bring some opportunities to buy. In the hourly chart, there’s a reaction starting on LYFT right now, so the support zone is working so far. UBER is still struggling a lot, but today’s low seems to be a Pivot Point , and if UBER loses it, it'll probably lose the yellow line with it, bringing the pullback we mentioned earlier. The volume increased a lot today, and both stocks are quite speculative, so let’s be cautious here. Either way, these are the most important points to keep in mind for both stocks, and if you like this analysis, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. Trade well.
NYSE:UBER
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
Hoag's 80% Value Play-Election "sell the news" (Short)Hoag's 80% Value Play (Election Day Short-SELL THE NEWS) Uber looks Toppy, Multiple Potential Dbl Tops (Unconfirmed) Reasons for Trade: 1. Have retraced to areas of .618-.786, and to + .786 of its range from IPO high and most recent high, respectively 2.At volume high rn, break back into value, and held for 2 consecutive 30m candles, suggests price will revisit value low 80% of time. VL is at reload long levels 3. MACD internals Looking weak. 4. Was recently oversold, and is hovering near OS 5. Significantly decreasing buy volume impetus, very telling. RR 4.22:1 Enter trade at confirmation of M top, at break through .786 level on downside and acceptance into value at $35.96 Stop set at M Top* at $38.25 Move Stop to scratch at touch of value low near potential reload long levels, $26.30. If accepts into value low, trail stops, 3 highs/Lows method. Caveat: This is a short trade in the event of unfavorable election results where rideshare worker's rights (gig economy) is on the ballot in California. NYSE:UBER For entertainment purposes only, not trade advice. DYOR!
NYSE:UBERShort
by Cryptough
1
$LYFT is Set for Action.. and Significant Differences of OpinionLYFT is in a tough spot. Frankly, we don't love this one because both it and UBER are SV VC plays built solely on a thesis of private sector autonomous vehicles in coming years. That's the payoff. But there are plenty of signals that suggest that thesis could die of either public-sector rules or a longer timeframe. But expect it to be "in play" tomorrow after better than expected Q2 results. Everyone knew demand would be awful. $32.50 means $40.
NASDAQ:LYFT
by GregFolin
1
Why Most Traders Lose Money - Here Are The Top 3 ReasonsAnyone that has been around the markets and trading for any period of time has probably heard that most traders lose money. In fact, there’s actually an old trading adage that says: 90% of new traders will lose 90% of their account within 90 days. So after reading that, before you reach for your broker’s phone number to wire out all of your money… how about I let you in on a little secret: If you follow some simple rules and avoid these 3 mistakes, you can be in that minority of traders that actually make money consistently in the markets. And if you are currently making one or all of the mistakes, I’ll also show you exactly how to fix it. So let’s dive in! 1) Most Traders Enter A Trade Too Late The first thing on my top 3 reasons why traders lose money is: Most traders get into trades WAY too late! There are a lot of reasons this happens, but most commonly it’s because new traders are basically gambling. They’re buying stocks or options based on news, or a hot stock tip, which really isn’t what I would consider a strategy. So let me give you a great example with a company I’m sure you’ve heard of: Uber Technologies (Yes, enemy #1 for taxi drivers worldwide.) Last year Uber, known for its popular ride-sharing and food delivery services, IPO’d in May (2019). With the disruption this company caused, their IPO had a lot of hype surrounding it, bringing a lot of investors to the table. On the day of their IPO, UBER opened at $42/share and people poured into the stock. For a few weeks, the stock had a turbulent, roller coaster of a ride all the way to as high as $47.08/share, a little over a 13% increase since its IPO. And around this new high, more and more inexperienced retail traders piled in thinking that it would continue its bullish run with dollar signs in their eyes. The mainstream media was continuing to hype it and more and more and investors and traders gobbled up more of the stock. Looking at the image below, you’ll see after that high of $47 things got UGLY fast, with UBER falling day-after-day, week-after-week. It wasn’t until November of 2019, about 7 months after their IPO that UBER found a temporary bottom at $25.58, down more than 45% from its high of $47.08… and I would bet there were a LOT of people who bought near or at the highs and were still holding at that point. So what did retailer traders do when UBER made a bottom? Yes, once again most (losing) retail traders didn’t get in at, or even around the bottom… once again, they piled as UBER neared its previous highs. And as you’ll see yet again, UBER rolled over on its way to making another new all-time low this past March 2020 going all the way down to $13.71/share. That’s more than a 70% decrease from its ATH and yes, I’m sure some investors rode it all the way to the bottom. Now I want to share a second example with you, so let’s take a look at Amazon (AMZN). So as you know, AMZN is a HOT STOCK, and last year it has a crazy move where it crossed $2000/share…. and yes, just like our example with UBER, inexperienced retail traders piled in at the very top. Once again, in the weeks that followed, AMZN’s stock tanked leaving those who’d piled in dazed and confused, now holding onto sizable losses. So as you can see, the first of my top 3 reasons most traders are losing money is simply because they’re piling in way too late in a stock’s move, generally near a high. Now on to reason number 2: 2) Most Traders EXIT Too Late Yes, as you can imagine if people are getting in too late, well, they’re also typically getting out too late as well. So let’s talk about why this happens. Why do retail traders tend to hold onto trades way too long, either turning a small loss into a BIG loss or sometimes even more painful, turning a winner into a loser? Let’s take a look at another example with an UBER competitor, LYFT . Like UBER, LYFT also had its IPO in 2019, opening up at $87.24/share… but that didn’t last long. In less than two months, LYFT went as low as $47.17… and what do you think those who bought during the IPO are saying right about now: “Oh, I’m holding it because IT WILL TURN AROUND!” This is generally where I see traders get religious 😉 Instead of ‘taking their medicine’ and getting out when the trade moved against them, they held on and are now pleading and praying the stock will turn around. I hate to be the one to break it to you, but ‘hope’ is not a strategy… at least not one with a winning trading record. Now on to number three in our list of top reasons why most traders lose money: 3) They Don’t Have A Trading Strategy As you’ll see, I’ve saved the best for last as this one alone can help fix or eliminate the other two we just discussed. So first, let’s answer this question: What Is A Trading Strategy? Well, a trading strategy gives you three key pieces of information you need before ever entering a trade: 1) It tells you WHAT you are trading. Is it stocks, options, futures, cryptocurrencies? This is answered in your trading strategy. 2) It answers when you ENTER a trade. 3) It answers when you EXIT a trade and that’s exiting with a profit or loss. Now, let’s take a look at an example here using TSLA on how I make decisions trading. I like to look at three different indicators, that when in alignment, give me a clear signal to go long or short a stock or ETF. As you can see on the charts, back in December of last year (2019) my indicators gave us a long signal on TSLA at around $370/share. TSLA Chart And the indicators told me we were good to go until around $850/share. All I had to do is let the indicators tell me when to get in and when to get out… no guessing, hoping, or praying. Summary So as you can see, there’s actually no big secret to why most traders are losing money. It’s actually pretty simple to see and correct, but it takes a plan and a little bit of discipline.
NASDAQ:LYFTEducation
by rockwelltrading
1