BTC/USD – Bearish Correction Ahead? Eyes on $44K
After failing to hold above the $70K psychological level, Bitcoin is showing clear signs of weakening momentum. The recent price action has formed a lower high, and bearish divergence on the RSI is becoming more evident across multiple timeframes.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is currently testing key support around $66K. A clean break below this zone could trigger further downside movement. Based on Fibonacci retracement levels and prior consolidation zones, the next significant support lies around the $44K area.
This level aligns with the 0.618 retracement from the recent bull run and coincides with previous accumulation zones from early 2024. A retest of this level could provide a healthier base for the next bullish wave.
🚨 Watch for a potential drop toward $44,000 in the coming weeks if current support fails to hold.
M-oscillator
LTC 1W Support Level ..Bullish Case (If Trendline Holds):
• Possible upside targets:
• Resistance at $100
• Medium-term: $160
• Long-term potential: $280+, if the crypto market enters a strong bullish phase.
⸻
Bearish Case (If Trendline Breaks):
• If it breaks below this trendline with volume, downside risk could open to:
• $36
• $22
• or even retest the lows around $13, depending on market sentiment.
⸻
Long-Term Spot Strategy:
• High-probability entry zone for long-term holders.
• Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) around this zone can be a solid plan.
• Stop-loss placement (for risk-managed traders) can be considered slightly below the trendline, e.g., $60 or $50, depending on your risk tolerance.
USD/JPY: Long Setup as Regulators Move to Calm MarketsWe're seeing financial regulators schedule emergency meetings to calm markets just as USD/JPY approaches levels where it has repeatedly bounced over the past week, presenting a potential long setup for those willing to go against the prevailing grain.
Longs could be established ahead of 144.50 with a tight stop just below for protection, targeting a return to Tuesday’s low of 146.00 or minor resistance at 148.15.
Momentum indicators remain firmly bearish, favouring a downside bias. But in headline-driven markets like this, the signal may not carry its usual weight.
Good luck!
DS
HBARUSDT Approaching Key Weekly Zone with Potential Reversal SetBINANCE:HBARUSDT HBARUSDT is approaching a weak support zone, which shows a higher probability of breaking due to insufficient strength. Below this lies a weekly strong Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is a critical level for potential price reversal and continuation of the bullish trend.
If the price enters this weekly FVG zone, it could signal a high-probability buying opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound. On the other hand, failure to hold this zone could lead to further downside.
Keep an eye on price action near the key levels for confirmation of potential entries. Always ensure to have clear stop-loss levels and realistic profit targets in place.
Best regards,
Happy trading!
Long NQ FuturesLooking for a 50% retracement back to roughly the 19300 level. Will likely be a bumpy ride up, with the first test of resistance at 18300 (minor wave A), back down to the bottom of the gap at 16900 (minor wave B), and then back up to 19300 (minor wave C).
Expecting to reverse short once 19300 is reached, but will evaluate further if and when target is reached.
Bullish setup for Bitcoin for coming 6 monthsIf we look at pure technicals. Basic technicals, things couldn't be more bullish. The sentiment is at extreme fear, but look at this beautiful chart.
Maybe we chop here for a bit, but once the MACD flips in momentum weakness, then I suspect massive upwards move for Bitcoin.
Apple Wave Analysis – 9 April 2025
- Apple reversed from the support zone
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 180.00
Apple earlier reversed up from the support zone surrounding the long-term support level 170.00 (which has been reversing the price since the end of 2023) – standing very far below the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 170.00 stopped the previous weekly downward impulse wave 3 from February.
Given the strength of the support level 170.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, Apple can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 180.00.
$$$ BTCUSD MACRO-BULLISH $$$ 1W CHART $$$BITFINEX:BTCUSD 1W Chart
There are many reasons to look at this weekly chart and see that there's absolutely no reason to be bearish on Bitcoin yet.
Holding strong r/s flip support.
Holding regression trend.
Holding parabolic trend.
Stoch RSI at the bottom.
Weekly bullish divergence.
Assuming this plays out in a way that's similar to the last local bottom, the current target is around $134k-$135k.
It would take a lot to invalidate all of these bullish indicators, but if that does somehow happen, with a CLOSE of the weekly candle that invalidated these, then It's pretty much definitely over for a loooong time.
NFA blah blah blah..
Bearish Bias Builds as SGX Futures Test Key SupportSGX iron ore finds itself teetering on key technical support, unable to muster any meaningful bid despite significant gains in other China-linked plays on Tuesday.
$95.40 is the level we’re watching, waiting for a definitive move to signal how to proceed. A downside break would open the door for a flush towards $89.30, generating a setup where shorts could be established beneath the level with a stop above for protection. Alternatively, if the price were to bounce, the setup could be flipped, targeting a move back towards former support at $99.
Momentum signals are firmly bearish with RSI (14) trending strongly lower but not yet oversold. MACD has confirmed the signal, crossing from above beneath 0 earlier this month. The backdrop therefore favours selling rips and bearish breaks.
Good luck!
DS
Is HCLTECH done?
HCLTECH has had a phenomenal run from ₹12.9 in September 2001 to ₹2,012.2 earlier this month, a growth of ~15,500% in 279 months, averaging 40% annually.
But is it all about to end? 5/35 MACD, which I love to use to validate my EW count is showing a massive divergence on the weekly charts combined with a big high-volume engulfing bar concurrently taking shape. I can also count clear 5 waves on the monthly charts.
Based on my calculations, I can see two targets on the downside: 1418 and 970 .
Do share your opinions below.
Best!
Why I think EURUSD will continue to buy this week...Hey Rich Friends,
I think EURUSD will continue to buy today and maybe this week. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference the indicators on your chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market has bounced from the previous day's low around 1.08740
- Bullish candles have picked up momentum in the last few hours
- Structure was broken on H1 and resistance was retested as support
- The STOCHASTIC is facing up, the orange line (slow) is below the blue line (fast), both have crossed above 50%.
These are all bullish confirmations for me. I will set my SL at the previous day's low and use previous highs as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know how it goes in the comments below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Bitcoin Holding Strong! Key Levels & Entry PointsWeekly Chart: BTC still holding above $78,000, maintaining the overall uptrend despite short-term breakdowns.
🔍 4-Hour Chart: Temporary breakdown below trend line, but volume is low—likely a shakeout before resuming upward.
📊 Two-Pole Oscillator: Showing strength in oversold territory—potential sign of a bounce.
💰 Entry Point: Current levels are likely as close to bottom as it can get, barring external factors like politics or tariffs.
🚨 Key Level to Watch: Weekly close above $78,000 will reinforce bullish trend.
⚠️ Remember to DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!
CADJPY Wave Analysis – 7 April 2025- CADJPY reversed from strong support 101.60
- Likely to rise to resistance level 105.00
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone surrounding the strong support 101.60 (which has been reversing the price since last August). This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from support 101.60 stopped the earlier intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of March.
Given the strength of the support 101.60 and the bullish Canadian dollar sentiment seen today, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 105.00.
Skeptic | EUR/USD: Long and Short Triggers Ahead – Key LevelsWelcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic.
Today, we're diving deep into EUR/USD , breaking down the current structure and upcoming trade opportunities. 🔍
Recap & Current Structure:
As mentioned in our previous analysis , after breaking the descending trendline and pulling back, we had created a higher high, indicating a potential move toward the top of the box at 1.09453. Our long trigger at 1.08454 played out well, reaching a 2.77 % upward move! If you followed the idea, you saw the results!
Currently, after breaking resistance at 1.09418 , we saw a pullback , and it's now acting as support. We also have a new resistance at 1.10892 , along with a higher high that confirms the uptrend. I’m still looking for long triggers as long as the trend remains intact.
However, as we always say, it's crucial to be skeptical and analyze the market from both sides. So, in the coming days, I’ll keep an eye out for both long and short triggers, depending on how the price moves.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
Trigger: Break & close above 1.10892
Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during the breakout + RSI entering overbought
Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 1.09418
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
Trigger: Rejection at 1.10213 + drop below 1.09418
Confirmation: RSI entering below 42.22
⚠️ Key Notes:
Risk Management : Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks before entering.
Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
Gold Gets Technical Sell Signal Amid Stock Market DownturnGold has triggered a sell signal based on a MACD system that has historically shown a 75% success rate since the major 2011 top. Out of eight total signals, six have worked, capturing an average downward move of 21.15%. While recent signals during the bull market have delivered more modest results, they have still successfully flagged key corrections. The latest signal appears to be working as well, though uncertainty in global markets remains high, and traders should proceed with caution.
The signal itself is simple: when the difference between the MACD and its signal line rises above 20, the likelihood of a correction increases.
While many market participants expect gold to rally during equity market crashes, history shows that in particularly sharp downturns, gold can initially follow the broader market. This is often due to rising margin calls and gold’s high liquidity, making it a common source of cash. However, this time, elevated short positions might help limit the downside risks for gold.
30% Bitcoin correction to circa $72kOn the above 2 day chart price action has printed 100% gain since September. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook in the near term. They include:
1) Price action failed support.
2) RSI and MFI failed support.
3) Strong bearish divergence with price action. 10 oscillators price negative divergence with price action at this time.
4) The $72k forecast is the 50% Fibonacci level.
5) What will happen to overbought alt tokens? Nothing good.
Is it possible price action continues to print higher highs like most Youtube shills are calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Long SLVThis is a long term trade which may take longer time to develop and contingent on positive price action through key resistance levels.
First level to watch is the 30 handle, which is currently being tested. Break above 30 should take us close to the most recent high in Oct-2024, just below the 35 handle.
Assuming price action advances past the 35 handle, we'd likely see a quick move to new highs around the 52 handle.
Additional rate cuts in 2025, as well as increased deficit spending would likely be the fundamental monetary catalyst to drive prices higher.
Hang Seng Bull Market ImplodesHong Kong’s Hang Seng is imploding with the price cascading lower after breaking support at 22,570 earlier today. The subsequent unwind saw 21,728 and 21,377 melt like a hot knife through butter before the price eventually bounced at 20,535 — another minor level that acted as both support and resistance earlier this year. That makes it an initial level of interest for those contemplating setups involving Hang Seng futures.
A clean break of 20,535 would put a retest of minor levels such as 19,718 and 19,430 on the table. The 200-day moving average is also found at 19,891, although one glance at how price has interacted with it previously suggests it may be entirely ignored in this environment. Beyond that, the uptrend dating back to the early 2024 low is another level to watch, although it hasn’t been tested enough to declare it meaningful downside support. It’s located around 18,550 today, just beneath the January 2025 swing low of 18,694.
While they provided no support earlier today, 21,377 and 21,728 may still be of interest if bears choose to set up shop above either. Watch the price interaction at these levels if the Hang Seng gets back there.
Momentum signals remain firmly with the bears, with MACD and RSI (14) both negative and trending strongly lower. While RSI is now oversold, it was also extremely overbought earlier this year — and that didn’t stop further gains at the time. The same could easily apply on the downside. The overall momentum signal favours selling rips and downside breaks near term.
Good luck!
DS
Nikkei 225 Bounce Zone Holds AgainTraders should pay close attention to Nikkei 225 futures if the price returns towards 30,400. We’ve now seen decent bounces from around that level five times, including earlier today upon the resumption of trade after the weekend.
While momentum signals are firmly bearish, with RSI (14) and MACD both trending lower, the former now sits at its most oversold level since the pandemic plunge in early 2020. That means the market may be vulnerable to even a minor shift in the prevailing bearish sentiment. For now, the preference remains to sell rallies over buying dips.
A clean break of 30,400 would open the door for a run towards 28,400 or 25,600 — the latter a key technical level given how often it thwarted bearish moves in 2022. On the topside, resistance may be encountered around 33,300, marking where the price rout stalled last Friday. A break of that would put 35,120 on the radar.
Good luck!
DS
RSI 101: Scalping Strategy with RSI DivergenceFX:XAUUSD
I'm an intraday trader, so I use the H1 timeframe to identify the main trend and the M5 timeframe for entry confirmation.
How to Determine the Trend
To determine the trend on a specific timeframe, I rely on one or more of the following factors:
1. Market Structure
We can determine the trend by analyzing price structure:
Uptrend: Identified when the market consistently forms higher highs and higher lows. This means price reaches new highs in successive cycles.
Downtrend: Identified when the market consistently forms lower highs and lower lows. Price gradually declines over time.
2. Moving Average
I typically use the EMA200 as the moving average to determine the trend. If price stays above the EMA200 and the EMA200 is sloping upwards, it's considered an uptrend. Conversely, if price is below the EMA200 and it’s sloping downwards, it signals a downtrend.
3. RSI
I'm almost use RSI in my trading system. RSI can also indicate the phase of the market:
If RSI in the 40–80 range, it's considered an uptrend.
If RSI in 20 -60 range, it's considered a downtrend.
In addition, the WMA45 of the RSI gives us additional trend confirmation:
Uptrend: WMA45 slopes upward or remains above the 50 level.
Downtrend: WMA45 slopes downward or stays below the 50 level.
Trading Strategy
With this RSI divergence trading strategy, we first identify the trend on the H1 timeframe:
Here, we can see that the H1 timeframe shows clear signs of a new uptrend:
Price is above the EMA200.
RSI is above 50.
WMA45 of RSI is sloping upward.
To confirm entries, move to the M5 timeframe and look for bullish RSI divergence, which aligns with the higher timeframe (H1) trend.
RSI Divergence, in case you're unfamiliar, happens when:
Price forms a higher high while RSI forms a lower high, or
Price forms a lower low while RSI forms a higher low.
RSI divergence is more reliable when the higher timeframe trend remains intact (as per the methods above), indicating that it’s only a pullback in the bigger trend, and we’re expecting the smaller timeframe to reverse back in line with the main trend.
Stop-loss:
Set your stop-loss 20–30 pips beyond the M5 swing high/low.
Or if H1 ends its uptrend and reverses.
Take-profit:
At a minimum 1R (risk:reward).
Or when M5 ends its trend.
You can take partial profits to optimize your gains:
Take partial profit at 1R.
Another part when M5 ends its trend.
The final part when H1 ends its trend.
My trading system is entirely based on RSI, feel free to follow me for technical analysis and discussions using RSI.
Class A/B RSI Bearish Divergence on SPY Futures?Really posting here to see if anyone would validate this for me but I was looking on the chart and this idea came about. On the weekly chart for ES1!, there seems to be class A or B Bearish Divergence developing on the Weekly timeframe.
Listen, of course we all know SPY trends upwards over time but is this an indicator of a larger sell the market needs to go higher every once in a blue moon? This is guarenteed a macro trend and I probably will have to wait a year for this analysis to play out but hey, at least we're here. (***ponders on how I charted Gamestop at $10 but never traded because of lack of knowledge***) Anyways, this is something I will of course monitor but let me highlight instances in history this has happened. Please feel free to give your input on this analysis!
Jan 1998 thru Apr 2001 (News Driver: Dot-Com Bubble)
Price makes higher highs from Jan 98' thru Mar 00'
From Mar 98' thru Mar 00', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) on Sep 00'. Fails to make new all-time high
From Sep 00' to Apr 01' price moves down as much as 30% over the next 224d
Jan 2013 thru Feb 2016
Price makes higher highs from Jan 13' thru May 15'
From May 13' thru Jun 14', the 3 peaks formed on the RSI leading to price establishing a lower high (SMT) Jul 15' and a following lower high on Nov 15'
From Jul 15' to Aug 15' (42d) (News Driver: Lagging China Market) price moves down as much as 14% and as much as 14% on the Nov '15 lower high to Jan 16' (78d) (News Driver: Oil Prices)
Current: Jan 24' thru Nov 24'
Price has been making higher highs all year
From Mar 24' thru , the RSI has been making lower highs while price is making higher highs
We are now at a point where price is pushing to go higher but what I would want to see based off of historical data is for price to consolidate or some type of Bearish Turtle Soup forming. If this happens and the RSI returns to Fair Value, we could be in for a sizeable sell of for at least a couple of weeks in the near future.
I will come back to this in the next few months. Happy Trading!
ETH Is Oversold Like Never Before !Hello Traders 🐺
In the recent week, we saw a massive long position wipeout, especially in the stock market.
However, despite all the rumors, BTC held itself at these levels and is still inside a falling wedge pattern.
If you don't know what I’m talking about, you can check my last idea about it.
But ETH!
In my opinion, this is a huge discounted price for ETH.
You know why?
1_ Monthly RSI is currently at 25, which means we’re in an extremely oversold situation, and this usually means bulls are about to come back.
Yes — we have all the signs of a reversal from here:
(A): BTC.D RSI is at an all-time high and forming a bearish divergence, meanwhile:
(B): ETH/BTC is extremely oversold right now.
(C): BTC itself has formed a falling wedge pattern right above the weekly Cup & Handle neckline support!
Guess what?
If you zoom in a little bit on the daily chart, you can see there’s a pattern to break, and price is currently too close to the edge of it —
which means time is ticking for ETH, and we are about to see an explosive move.
Probably to the upside, because of all the signs we’ve talked about above.
I hope you enjoyed this idea — and as always, don’t forget our goal:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, But almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺